The very tough loss in Atlanta makes Sunday only a 3-2 day, but the +161 and +106 dogs ensured that it was still an above average day. Anyone who has been reading my daily threads the past couple weeks should immediately know my top play for Monday’s card. Despite the small number of games, I feel like it‘s a pretty strong card overall, and I am making six plays.
Heavy:
A’s (Gaud Awful) @ Angels (Colon Blow) Over 9 -110
I've successfully faded Gaudin the first two games after the ASB, and I said I was probably going to bet against him every start the second half. I can't here, because he's facing the worst pitcher in baseball. But, anyway, here's what he's done his last two starts: 0-2, 10 IP, 14 hits, 11 BB, 10 ER. 9.00 ERA, 2.50 WHIP. Hella! It might get worse before it gets better.
Here's what I wrote about Colon in fading him last Wednesday:
Colon actually only had a 1.80 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA in that game.
Medium:
Royals +163 (Perez/Clemens)
Everyone is talking about the Yankees scoring 38 runs in their past two games. It’s damn impressive, really. And it’s a possibility that they score 10 more Monday. But the Yankees are still 51-46. They’re still 1-11 on the road against left-handed starters, despite being favored in every one of those games.
Roger Clemens is going to pitch better than he has been away from home. But as long as he is 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and .299 BAA on the road, it’s comical that he is laying this price to a hot offense and team that has won 21 of 35. The Royals have had 62 hits and scored 38 runs the last five games, compiling a 4-1 record on the road against what most consider the two best teams in the AL. They can keep it up at home.
People may mention that Odalis Perez has a career ERA of 15.43 against the Yankees. I don’t really care that he gave up 8 ER in 4.2 IP at Yankee Stadium in 1999. It’s irrelevant. The current Yankees hitters are a combined 6-36 (.167) with one XB hit against him. Look, Perez is what he is. A back-end starter for a mediocre team. He’s not going to throw a shutout, he’s probably not going to get the win. But with the above 1-11 stat and with the way the Royals offense has been playing, I think he will keep them in the game. Both bullpens are pretty good, not great, and even though the Yankees have a better lineup and starter, this line is not close to reality.
Light:
Padres (Maddux) @ Rockies (Francis) Over 9.5 -120
Both teams were shut out in pitcher’s parks Sunday. Both teams should put up some runs in the anti-pitcher’s park Monday. The Rockies have hit righties better this year, and they have nice career numbers against Maddux:
The Padres are better against lefties, and their numbers against Francis aren’t bad either, though many are in limited appearances:
I really like the situational play more than anything, but Maddux’s road numbers are not good, neither are his Coors numbers, he hasn’t had a quality start all month, and the Rockies bullpen will give some up even if Francis has 6 or 7 good innings.
Giants +108 & Under 8 -115 (Cain/Smoltz)
I won‘t be the least bit surprised if the Braves get shutout here, as odd as that sounds about a team facing a 3-11 pitcher. But my thoughts on Cain are pretty well documented, and it’s hard to imagine a more deflating feeling in baseball than losing a game you should have won, in extra innings of a night game no less, and flying across the country to face one of the nastiest pitchers in the game. Cain got squeezed mercilessly his last start, giving up six runs in four innings, but he still gave up only four hits, and I expect a much better performance against the team he rooted for growing up. When his control is on, he’s one of the elite pitchers in the game. Both teams have very pedestrian numbers against the opposing starter and both bullpens are above average.
Blue Jays +145 (Marcum/Santana)
We all know how tough Santana is, and he owns a couple Jay hitters:
But a couple have very good numbers against him:
His numbers both against the Jays overall (2-3, 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) and at Rogers Centre (1-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) are both very average. The Jays have hit LHP as well as anyone the past few seasons. I’m really high on Marcum. Since he’s been moved to the starting rotation, he’s giving quality start after quality start. He already shut down the Twins once this year, going 8 innings and allowing only six hits, a walk, and a run at the Metrodome. He was unfortunate to get a no-decision in that one, I think he gets the win on Monday.
Heavy:
A’s (Gaud Awful) @ Angels (Colon Blow) Over 9 -110
I've successfully faded Gaudin the first two games after the ASB, and I said I was probably going to bet against him every start the second half. I can't here, because he's facing the worst pitcher in baseball. But, anyway, here's what he's done his last two starts: 0-2, 10 IP, 14 hits, 11 BB, 10 ER. 9.00 ERA, 2.50 WHIP. Hella! It might get worse before it gets better.
Here's what I wrote about Colon in fading him last Wednesday:
Devil Rays -103 (Kazmir/Colon) & Over 9 -110
Last eight starts for Bartolo Colon: 1-4, 40.2 IP, 68 hits, 15 BB, 41 ER, 9.18 ERA, 2.04 WHIP. Road stats: 7.81 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, .358 BAA. He's favored. On the road. Against one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball.
Last eight starts for Bartolo Colon: 1-4, 40.2 IP, 68 hits, 15 BB, 41 ER, 9.18 ERA, 2.04 WHIP. Road stats: 7.81 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, .358 BAA. He's favored. On the road. Against one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball.
Medium:
Royals +163 (Perez/Clemens)
Everyone is talking about the Yankees scoring 38 runs in their past two games. It’s damn impressive, really. And it’s a possibility that they score 10 more Monday. But the Yankees are still 51-46. They’re still 1-11 on the road against left-handed starters, despite being favored in every one of those games.
Roger Clemens is going to pitch better than he has been away from home. But as long as he is 0-3 with a 7.56 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and .299 BAA on the road, it’s comical that he is laying this price to a hot offense and team that has won 21 of 35. The Royals have had 62 hits and scored 38 runs the last five games, compiling a 4-1 record on the road against what most consider the two best teams in the AL. They can keep it up at home.
People may mention that Odalis Perez has a career ERA of 15.43 against the Yankees. I don’t really care that he gave up 8 ER in 4.2 IP at Yankee Stadium in 1999. It’s irrelevant. The current Yankees hitters are a combined 6-36 (.167) with one XB hit against him. Look, Perez is what he is. A back-end starter for a mediocre team. He’s not going to throw a shutout, he’s probably not going to get the win. But with the above 1-11 stat and with the way the Royals offense has been playing, I think he will keep them in the game. Both bullpens are pretty good, not great, and even though the Yankees have a better lineup and starter, this line is not close to reality.
Light:
Padres (Maddux) @ Rockies (Francis) Over 9.5 -120
Both teams were shut out in pitcher’s parks Sunday. Both teams should put up some runs in the anti-pitcher’s park Monday. The Rockies have hit righties better this year, and they have nice career numbers against Maddux:
Atkins 7-15, .467, 2B, 2 HR
Baker 1-1, 1.000, 2B
Hawpe 3-12, .250, 2B
Helton 11-38, .289, 2B
Holliday 9-18, .500, 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR
Ianetta 1-4, .250
Matsui 6-13, .462, 2B, 3B
Taveras 4-13, .308, 3B
Torrealba 3-9, .333
Tulowitzki 0-5, .000
Baker 1-1, 1.000, 2B
Hawpe 3-12, .250, 2B
Helton 11-38, .289, 2B
Holliday 9-18, .500, 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR
Ianetta 1-4, .250
Matsui 6-13, .462, 2B, 3B
Taveras 4-13, .308, 3B
Torrealba 3-9, .333
Tulowitzki 0-5, .000
Bard 1-3, .333
Barrett 0-4, .000
Bradley 2-3, .667, 2B
Branyan 2-3, .667
Cameron 6-17, .353, 2 2B, 3B
Cruz 3-7, .429, 2 2B
M. Giles 4-10, 2 2B
B. Giles 7-27, .259, 2B, 3B
Gonzalez 3-14, .214, HR
Greene 7-20, .350, 2B, 3 HR
Kouzmanoff 0-3, .000
Barrett 0-4, .000
Bradley 2-3, .667, 2B
Branyan 2-3, .667
Cameron 6-17, .353, 2 2B, 3B
Cruz 3-7, .429, 2 2B
M. Giles 4-10, 2 2B
B. Giles 7-27, .259, 2B, 3B
Gonzalez 3-14, .214, HR
Greene 7-20, .350, 2B, 3 HR
Kouzmanoff 0-3, .000
Giants +108 & Under 8 -115 (Cain/Smoltz)
I won‘t be the least bit surprised if the Braves get shutout here, as odd as that sounds about a team facing a 3-11 pitcher. But my thoughts on Cain are pretty well documented, and it’s hard to imagine a more deflating feeling in baseball than losing a game you should have won, in extra innings of a night game no less, and flying across the country to face one of the nastiest pitchers in the game. Cain got squeezed mercilessly his last start, giving up six runs in four innings, but he still gave up only four hits, and I expect a much better performance against the team he rooted for growing up. When his control is on, he’s one of the elite pitchers in the game. Both teams have very pedestrian numbers against the opposing starter and both bullpens are above average.
Blue Jays +145 (Marcum/Santana)
We all know how tough Santana is, and he owns a couple Jay hitters:
Clayton 2-12, .167
Hill 1-6, .167
Overbay, 1-11, .091
Wells 3-21, .143, 2B, HR
Hill 1-6, .167
Overbay, 1-11, .091
Wells 3-21, .143, 2B, HR
Glaus 7-18, .389, 3 2B, HR
Johnson, 9-16, .563, 2B
Rios 3-9, .333, 2B
Thomas 6-16, .375, 2B, 2 HR
Johnson, 9-16, .563, 2B
Rios 3-9, .333, 2B
Thomas 6-16, .375, 2B, 2 HR
