MR OCTOBERS 2022 Season Long MLB Props/Futures/Plays

[Mr0ctober]

Adds:

Orioles/brewers under 4 (-115) first 5 (0.7u)

Orioles/brewers under 8 -105 (0.7u)

Seattle f5 -110 (1u)

A’a/Rays under 4 f5 (1u)

[Maizey]

It looks like you do a heck of a lot of work. Good luck to you. I quit baseball capping years ago. The quants seemed to be the only ones that were winning. I still love the game though, and spot play a few here and there.

A few questions for you when you get a moment.

It doesn't look like you ever play overnights. When I capped the majority of my plays were overnights trying to beat the line moves. I was moderately successful at that, while very unsuccessful at playing against the game day lines, especially in more recent years where the quants sucked all the value away by hitting the openers. Any reason you don't play overnights?

I notice that you play a lot of first fives. That became vogue in the pandemic year when bullpens were unmitigated disasters. That shouldn't be the case now though. I never played first fives because of the higher vig. Plus I would prefer to have more variables that I believed to be on the right side of rather than less. Do you play them because of the fear of bullpen variability?

Finally, do you play listed or action? The reason I ask is that the Padres play on Sunday was a very popular play, but most played listed pitchers so they got no action. You graded it as a winner, so that would mean you play action, but that is not at all typical of serious baseball cappers. Personally, I always played listed.

[Mr0ctober]

It looks like you do a heck of a lot of work. Good luck to you. I quit baseball capping years ago. The quants seemed to be the only ones that were winning. I still love the game though, and spot play a few here and there.

A few questions for you when you get a moment.

It doesn't look like you ever play overnights. When I capped the majority of my plays were overnights trying to beat the line moves. I was moderately successful at that, while very unsuccessful at playing against the game day lines, especially in more recent years where the quants sucked all the value away by hitting the openers. Any reason you don't play overnights?

I notice that you play a lot of first fives. That became vogue in the pandemic year when bullpens were unmitigated disasters. That shouldn't be the case now though. I never played first fives because of the higher vig. Plus I would prefer to have more variables that I believed to be on the right side of rather than less. Do you play them because of the fear of bullpen variability?

Finally, do you play listed or action? The reason I ask is that the Padres play on Sunday was a very popular play, but most played listed pitchers so they got no action. You graded it as a winner, so that would mean you play action, but that is not at all typical of serious baseball cappers. Personally, I always played listed.

All very good questions. I play very few overnights (i do play some but very limited). as i like to see the lineups, weather, and umpires (if start of series). sometimes bullpen availability, etc before making a pick.

I do play a lot of first 5s in prior seasons due to bullpen blow-ups and just the fact that ive had a really good record going back on those. Part as why there have been so many this season is the fact that due to the lack of spring training we are seeing starters just get their feet under themselves per say working less deep into the games and usually pulled with a quicker hook based on pitch count no matter how good they are going (see kershaw yesterday).

And part of it is numbers edge seem to show value higher in first 5s and they have proven profitable over the years for me. Also deeper research such as keeping track of the big boys in the bullpen and their recent usage can trigger a first 5 play opposed to a full game. I hope all that makes sense.

Finally, as for the listed pitchers vs action. In the past i always would play listed pitchers as well. But due to the Covid year - about half of my more reputable books and half the ones i play at often have gone to action no matter what (such as bookmaker). As far as me determining making a play on action vs listed i really throw that out and just play wherever i can get the best line. Sometimes i get on the right side of it and others the wrong side. But i just let the chips fall where they may in that sense. Same way a tennis retirement would determine an outcome differently at different books (i just play the best line). I simply just play the best line i can find so sometimes it is action and other times it is listed. Obviously if i can the best line at both action and listed i would play the listed. But again if i can get an action -101 vs a listed -102. I will play the action as i believe longterm the 1 penny better line is much more quantifiable

Hope all that makes sense as i am sometimes not the best in terms of answering questions through words!

Feel free to chime whenever! I have a lot of experience in this field but am always learning new things and am open to new ideas/angles.

And like i always say people often know their favorite teams much more than i do. They are able to lock in and on one team and really track that team and its players while im trying to do it for all 30 teams!

Best of luck this year Maizey!

[Mr0ctober]

4/13:
Tribe/Reds under 5 f5 (-120) (1u) ❌ -1.2u
Parlay:Braves/Dodgers +128 (1u)❌ -1u

Dbacks/Astros under 4.5 f5 -105 (1u) +1u✅

Phillies/Mets under 4.5 f5 (-125) (0.8u)❌ -1u

Orioles/brewers under 4 (-115) first 5 (0.7u) +0.7u✅

Orioles/brewers under 8 -105 (0.7u) +0.7u✅

Seattle f5 -110 (1u)❌ -1.1u

A’a/Rays under 4 f5 (1u) PUSH

2022 regular season 20-120 -2.245u❌
Props 0-1 -1.3u❌

[Mr0ctober]

4/14
tigers +120 (1u)
Phillies/Marlins under 4 f5 +100 (1u)
Jays f5 +110 (0.5u)
Jays +117 (0.5u)
Dodgers -255 (0.5u)
Dodgers -1.5 (-123) (1u)

[Maizey]

All very good questions. I play very few overnights (i do play some but very limited). as i like to see the lineups, weather, and umpires (if start of series). sometimes bullpen availability, etc before making a pick.

I do play a lot of first 5s in prior seasons due to bullpen blow-ups and just the fact that ive had a really good record going back on those. Part as why there have been so many this season is the fact that due to the lack of spring training we are seeing starters just get their feet under themselves per say working less deep into the games and usually pulled with a quicker hook based on pitch count no matter how good they are going (see kershaw yesterday).

And part of it is numbers edge seem to show value higher in first 5s and they have proven profitable over the years for me. Also deeper research such as keeping track of the big boys in the bullpen and their recent usage can trigger a first 5 play opposed to a full game. I hope all that makes sense.

Finally, as for the listed pitchers vs action. In the past i always would play listed pitchers as well. But due to the Covid year - about half of my more reputable books and half the ones i play at often have gone to action no matter what (such as bookmaker). As far as me determining making a play on action vs listed i really throw that out and just play wherever i can get the best line. Sometimes i get on the right side of it and others the wrong side. But i just let the chips fall where they may in that sense. Same way a tennis retirement would determine an outcome differently at different books (i just play the best line). I simply just play the best line i can find so sometimes it is action and other times it is listed. Obviously if i can the best line at both action and listed i would play the listed. But again if i can get an action -101 vs a listed -102. I will play the action as i believe longterm the 1 penny better line is much more quantifiable

Hope all that makes sense as i am sometimes not the best in terms of answering questions through words!

Feel free to chime whenever! I have a lot of experience in this field but am always learning new things and am open to new ideas/angles.

And like i always say people often know their favorite teams much more than i do. They are able to lock in and on one team and really track that team and its players while im trying to do it for all 30 teams!

Best of luck this year Maizey!

Yes, it makes sense and I understand your points.

I totally agree with getting the best line and ignoring listed vs action. I didn’t realize that some books have gone action only. Mine all still default to listed, so I have to go out of my way to get action, which I never do. Game day scratches are very rare anyway, except maybe late in the season.

I’ll see your points on the first fives. It’s still seems like a pretty steep price to pay (3 - 5 cents at my books), but if you do well with them, that’s all that matters.

On the overnights, I have to disagree with most of your points. The lineup changes do add some variability. That point I can’t argue, but it is random, so in the long run it should be a wash. I used to track umpires very closely and it was absolutely a worthwhile endeavor. However, once they homogenized the strike zone and mixed the AL and NL umps together, the advantage evaporated, at least for me. Finally, on the weather, that’s one of my best angles for overnights. Next day weather forecasts are very accurate nowadays. I look for big changes right before or even during games. The overnights rarely take those late in the day weather shifts into consideration. The full limit game day openers mostly do, and the late day lines absolutely do. I guess we stick to what we do best. For me it will always be overnights.

Good luck, I hope you have one of those +20 unit years!

[Mr0ctober]

4/15:
Nationals +103 (1u)
braves +100 (1u)
marlins -126 (1u)
jays -1.5 +105 (1u)
Dodgers -1.5 -120 (1u)

Yankees/Os over 9 (1u)
Cards/brewers over 8.5 -102 (1u)

nats/put under 5 f5 (1u)
giants/tribe under 4 f5 (-120) (1.5u)
Phillies/marlins under 4 f5 (-115) (1u)
cubs/Rockies under 5 f5 +100 (1u)

Rodon under 7.5 ks (-130) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/16
Reds +175 f5 (0.75u)
Marlins -139 (1u)
Angels -121 (1u)
Tribe/Giants under 8 (-105) (1u)
Nationals/Pirates over 9 (-120) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Added a prop
hunter Greene over 4.5 ks -115 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/14
tigers +120 (1u)✅ +1.2u
Phillies/Marlins under 4 f5 +100 (1u)❌ -1u
Jays f5 +110 (0.5u)❌ -0.5u
Jays +117 (0.5u)❌ -0.5u
Dodgers -255 (0.5u)✅ +0.5u
Dodgers -1.5 (-123) (1u)✅ +1u

4/15:
Nationals +103 (1u)✅ +1.03u
braves +100 (1u)✅ +1u
marlins -126 (1u)✅ +1u
jays -1.5 +105 (1u)✅ +1.05u
Dodgers -1.5 -120 (1u)✅ +1u

Yankees/Os over 9 (1u)❌ -1.1u
Cards/brewers over 8.5 -102 (1u)✅ +1u

nats/put under 5 f5 (1u)❌
giants/tribe under 4 f5 (-120) (1.5u)✅
Phillies/marlins under 4 f5 (-115) (1u)❌
cubs/Rockies under 5 f5 +100 (1u)❌
Rodon under 7.5 ks (-130) (1u)❌

4/16
Reds +175 f5 (0.75u)pushhh
Marlins -139 (1u)❌ -1.39u
Angels -121 (1u)✅ +1u
Tribe/Giants under 8 (-105) (1u)✅ +1u
Nationals/Pirates over 9 (-120) (1u)✅ +1u
hunter Greene over 4.5 ks -115 (1u) ✅ +1u prop

12-7 last three days +5.79u✅
1-1 props -0.3u❌

2022 regular season record 32-27 +3.545u✅
2022 Props record 1-2 -1.6u❌

[Mr0ctober]

4/19:
dbacks +114 (1u)
Marlins -118 (1u)
Rays -122 (1u)
Royals over 8 -115 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Add braves +144 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Add prop:
max Fried over 4.5 ks -115 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/20:
white Sox game 1 +145 (0.8u)
braves +118 (0.8u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/20:

Dbacks +108 (1u)
marlins under 4 f5 (1u)
Angels -117 (1u)
Jays -115 (1u)
royals +114 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Player props
Berrios over 4.5 ks (-155) (1u)
Rodriguez under 5.5 ks (-137) (1u)

[Maizey]

4/20:

Dbacks +108 (1u)
marlins under 4 f5 (1u)
Angels -117 (1u)
Jays -115 (1u)
royals +114 (1u)

Nice 5-pack there

[Mr0ctober]

Nice 5-pack there

Thanks man!

[Mr0ctober]

4/19:
dbacks +114 (1u)❌
Marlins -118 (1u)❌
Rays -122 (1u)✅
Royals over 8 -115 (1u)❌
braves +144 (1u)✅
max Fried over 4.5 ks -115 (1u)✅

2-3 -0.89u❌
1-0 props +1u✅

4/20:
white Sox game 1 +145 (0.8u)❌
braves +118 (0.8u)❌
Dbacks +108 (1u)✅
marlins under 4 f5 (1u)✅
Angels -117 (1u)✅
Jays -115 (1u)✅
royals +114 (1u)✅

5-2 +3.62✅
props
Berrios over 4.5 ks (-155) (1u)✅
Rodriguez under 5.5 ks (-137) (1u)✅
2-0 +2u✅


2022 regular season record 39-32 +6.275✅
2022 Props record 4-2 +1.4u✅

[acehole]

[Mr0ctober]

4/21:White Sox -144 (1u)

Mets -130 (1u)

Athletics -118 (1.5u)

Twins -146 (1u)

Jays/BosoX under 4.5 f5 (-115) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/21:
White Sox -144 (1u)❌ -1.44u

Mets -130 (1u)✅

Athletics -118 (1.5u)✅

Twins -146 (1u)✅

Jays/BosoX under 4.5 f5 (-115) (1u)✅

4-1 day +3.06u✅

2022 regular season record 43-33 +9.335u✅
2022 Props record 4-2 +1.4u✅

[Mr0ctober]

Didn’t play anything tonight!

honestly couldn’t find much of anything.

[Mr0ctober]

Early play 4/23

cubs/pirates over 10 (-120) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

Tribe/Yankees under 4 f5 (-110) (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/23 recap
cubs/pirates over 10 (-120) (1u)✅
Tribe/Yankees under 4 f5 (-110) (1u)push despite 0-0 to start the 5th

2022 regular season record 44-33 +10.335u✅
2022 Props record 4-2 +1.4u✅

[Mr0ctober]

4/24:

Cubs/pirates over 10 (-115) (1u)

Rays -0.5 runs f5 (-125) (1u)

Good luck all!

[BOA12]

4/24:

Cubs/pirates over 10 (-115) (1u)

Rays -0.5 runs f5 (-125) (1u)

Good luck all!

U as well Mr. O.

[Mr0ctober]

4/24:

Cubs/pirates over 10 (-115) (1u)❌ -1.15u

Rays -0.5 runs f5 (-125) (1u)✅ +1u

1-1 day -0.15u❌

2022 regular season record 45-34 +10.185u✅
2022 Props record 4-2 +1.4u✅

[Mr0ctober]

4/25
dodgers/Dbacks under 4.5 f5 (-125) (1u)
tribe/angels under 4 f5 +100 (1u)

[Mr0ctober]

4/25
dodgers/Dbacks under 4.5 f5 (-125) (1u)✅
tribe/angels under 4 f5 +100 (1u)✅

2-0 night +2u✅

2022 regular season record 47-34 +12.185u✅
2022 Props record 4-2 +1.4u✅

[BOA12]

4/25
dodgers/Dbacks under 4.5 f5 (-125) (1u)✅
tribe/angels under 4 f5 +100 (1u)✅

2-0 night +2u✅

2022 regular season record 47-34 +12.185u✅
2022 Props record 4-2 +1.4u✅

Nice work Mr. O.

[Mr0ctober]

Nice work Mr. O.

thanks!!

[Mr0ctober]

4/26:
rays -126 (1u)
Marlins -128 (1u)
Tribe/Angels under 4.5 f5 (-115) (1u)
Brewers/Pirates under 3.5 +100 (1u)

best of luck

[Mr0ctober]

Adding
Dodgers/angels Over 10 (-105) (0.5u)
Dodgers over 5.5 (-120) (0.5u)