Mr. October’s 2020 MLB Season

Mr0ctober · 02-28-20, 10:00 PM

2020 Season Preview team 1:

Arizona Dbacks:

2019 Wins = 85
2019 Run differential = +70

2020 Win total Over/Under 83.5

Any noticed luck or obscure records etc? No

Dbacks were 85-77 in 2019 with a +70 Run differential. 44-37 in home games and 41-40 on the road. They were 24-26 in 1 run games which doesn't suggest this team was lucky in 2019 in any way. Something that means nothing i did notice is that they were 17-17 vs the NL East, 16-16 vs NL Central, and 38-38 vs the NL West. dead .500 vs the NL. Where this team excelled was vs the AL where they went 14-6. Which was pretty impressive since they matched up against the AL east which featured series vs Rays, Yanks, Red Sox. And all that despite losing Goldschmidt and Corbin.

This team isn't loaded with big name stars but if you look a little deeper they are going to field a pretty solid team again in 2020. They added Mad Bum which is a nice veteran addition. And would be a big shot in the arm if they could make the one game playoff. We all know mad bum is immune to losing in the playoffs. They also added some big time power in Kole Calhoun. And a tremendous talent in Starling Marte.

The Starting pitching rotation looks very solid to me especially if this team keeps Robbie Ray. Bumgarner, Ray, Leake, Gallen, Weaver (no not Jared), and Merril Kelly. That is 6 solid starters along with a bullpen that seemed to be trending in the right direction. Archie Bradley looked solid at the end of last year despite a rocky start. They also feature Yoan Lopez, Junior Guerra, Hector Rondon, Crichton and Ginkel (who were both very impressive in 30 and 24 innings) .

Everything about this team is trending in the right direction. Don't forget that they still have Ketel Marte who broke out last year and Christian Walker on the right side of the infield. David Peralta also spent half the year injured as well and this team still won 85 games last year. Think we are giving the Padres a little too much credit and the Dbacks not enough credit in the NL West. This team seems to be more complete than most people think.

Solid Starting staff anchored by some veterans. Bullpen with some very solid young arms anchored by a couple veterans. And A lineup that should have no problem hitting the ball out of the yard very frequently (assuming we have loaded baseballs again).

I definitely suggest getting in on the Over 83.5 wins.his team has a really solid mix of developing young players and established veterans. This team should be even better than last year. The Giants, Rockies, and Padres don't suggest this division will be one of the tougher ones in baseball. Not to mention they get the interleague games against the AL Central which should feature some free wins against the Tigers and Royals. They also get the Indians in late August who could be big time sellers by then.

I have this team winning 87 games this year which gives me a solid amount of confidence on backing this team over their win total of 83.5 games. I would also suggest on getting down on some Dbacks to make the playoffs. Draft Kings has the best number that i have found so far of +225. That number seems way to high for a team that should definitely have a say in the wildcard. They are also +900 or better to win the AL West. Do i think they can dethrone the Dodgers? No, but i wouldn't be drop dead Trump over Hillary shocked if it happened. If your a fan or feeling risky i don't think its the worst bet you could make by any means.

Plays: Dbacks Over 83.5 Wins (-115) (3 units) and Dbacks to make the Playoffs +225 (1 unit)

Mr0ctober · 02-28-20, 10:28 PM

Los Angeles Dodgers:

2019 Wins: 106
2019 Run Differential: +273 with and absurd 59-22 Home Record
2019 1 run game record: 27-22

2020 Win Total: O/U 101.5

This team is loaded yet again. Something to note is this team won 106 games last year. Their 1st order win total was 108 and the 2nd order win total was 115 wins. This is suggesting that the team could have actually under preformed in 2019.

I have heard a lot of smart people suggesting that if this win total gets to 102 or 103 you have to take and under. For me that is an absolute no thank you. I like to be contrarian at times too but being contrarian just "to be contrarian" isn't a good strategy in my opinion. Sometimes its best to not try to over think things.

This team is absolutely loaded again. Walker Buehler is an absolute stud and so is Kershaw. I try not to let my opinions determine any factors in capping but i do have an angle that i am taking into account. I think with all this sign stealing stuff that Kershaw will be extra focused this year knowing that he was basically or could have been cheated out of a title. Now lets get to the two MONSTER ADDITIONS - bet you thought i was referring to Mookie Betts and David Price. I was referring to one of them being Betts MVP talent added to the juggernaut of a team. The other i was referring to was Blake Treinen. Seriously, i am not kidding this is a huge deal with the departure of Maeda. Treinen despite a down year last year is a tremendous veteran reliever and could be a big key to if this team wins the world series. Treinen has the ability to close (if Jansen were to go down) . and will make a great 1-2 punch with Kenley Jansen. I do HATE the fact that they lost Maeda but i think Treinen will fill the void. David Price is a nice addition as well but honestly i'm not boosting the dodgers that much because of him. that being said if he is healthy and can eat some innings for them then its just another reason i'm not getting in front of an under with this team. I could go on and on about how good this team is but ill stop most people know.

All that i am absolutely not one to get in front of an Under. But at the same time World Series and Division odds are basically un-bet-able in my opinion.

I am going to get down on the over but not as much as my mouth watering self wants to after going through this roster because no matter who you are winning 100 games in the MLB isn't that easy. But factoring in they will have interleague vs the AL Central im still going over.

Dodgers Over 101.5 -110 at BetOnline. If you want on better hurry this number isnt going to go down

Play: Dodgers Over 101.5 Wins (-110) (2u)

Mr0ctober · 02-28-20, 10:41 PM

San Diego Padres:

2019 Wins: 70
2019 Run Diff: -107
2019 1 Run Game Record: 26-24

2020 Win total O/U 83.5

Look they Padres are a trendy team this year. But then again they were last year too. The 1st order win total 2019 was 70 and the 2nd order win total was 73. In non nerd terms this is explaining them winning 70 games was about exactly what they should have won.

If you remember my preview from last year I am not a fan of Manny Machado. Thought it was a horrible signing and still do. He's just not the type of person or player i want to give millions and millions and millions of dollars to.

i love Tatis and am a big fan of the Tommy Pham signing . But outside of that I’m not nearly in love with this team like everyone else.

The starting rotation has the potential to be good. Chris Paddack is a stud, Lamet has shown signs of being an incredible talent but has yet to put it all together. Garret Richards is a guy who I liked years ago but the fact of the matter is he hasn’t had the ability to stay healthy and I can’t trust that his stuff and health is just going to miraculously be there for a good portion of the season. Zach Davies is a guy that is not any where near as good as people think. He somehow won 10 games last year despite only striking out 5.75 batters per 9 and walking 2.87 batters per 9. His ERA was 3.55 but is xFIP is 5.20. Suggesting he was extremely lucky in 2019. He’s a guy I am not buying at all. Lucchesi is an interesting arm and gave them good innings last year. But he also has the ability to get blown up and for thst he’s another guy that has some promise but isn’t reliable yet. So all in all the rotation has the potential to be decent but I’m not buying it.

the bullpen is anchored by Kirby Yates again who was lights out. I like the addition of Pagan who should be a really nice set up man for Yates. But my big question is who are going to be the guys to get from the starters to the 8th and 9th. This team just doesn’t have enough fire power out of the pen for me to put my money behind them.

All in all this team has too much uncertainty and is not deep enough for me to bet on a 13.5 game improvement from last year. If it does all come together for them then so be it take my money. But fading Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado and Will Myers isn’t a bad idea in my mind.

Oh yeah and over at bookmaker You can get +105

Under 83.5 wins (+105) (2u)

Mr0ctober · 03-04-20, 10:51 PM

San Fran Giants:

2019 Wins: 77
2019 Run Differential: -95 runs

2020 Win Total: 69.5

I wont go too much into depth on this team but there are a few notes. This team went an insane 38 wins 16 losses in one run games last year. I highly doubt we see that with the depletion of some bullpen pieces. This team also went 42-39 on the road. I doubt either of those two reoccur this year. 1st order win total last year was 71 while the 2nd order win total was 69.

I initially liked this under when it first came out but it since has been bet down to as low as 67.5 at some spots. you can still get a 69.5 at Betonline. So be sure to shop around.

I have been flip flopping on this team between a no play and an under. I don't like much about this team. While Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, and Cueto would have sounded great in the past they just aren't who they once were. I don't hate Cueto or Samardizja as a late round fantasy flyer but that is pretty much it.

As i said I have been flip flopping on this team and almost stayed away but Gabe Kapler replacing Bruce Bochy and the 1 run record regression factor was enough for me to throw a unit on the Under 69.5 on a somewhat non exciting team to discuss. The managerial change is about as going from as good as you can find to as bad as you can find.

Play: Under 69.5 (1 unit)

Mr0ctober · 03-04-20, 11:00 PM

Colorado Rockies:

2019 Wins: 71
2019 Run Diff: -123 yikes

2020 Win total 74.5

First and Second Order win total basically tell us that they won the exact amount of games in 2019 (71) that they should have. As far as roster construction this team really didn't do anything this offseason. Grumblings of Arenado wanting out doesn't exactly scream optimism in 2020.

They have some nice arms at the top of the rotation in Marquez and Gray and a slam dunk Oberg on the back end. But i cant get behind the rest of this team. They likely will be sellers at the deadline and despite the offensive firepower they have i just can trust the rest of the starting pitching or the bullpen. Wade Davis was horrible in 2019 and so was Bryan Shaw. They should be able to win some games but 75-77 wins is this teams absolute ceiling in my opinion.

I hate taking 3 unders in the same division but with the Dodgers likely to win 100 games and the Padres and Dbacks getting better this is probably a good division to do it in.

Rockies Under 74.5 (-110) (1 unit)

Mr0ctober · 03-04-20, 11:19 PM

NL Central St. Louis Cardinals:

2019 Wins: 91
2019 Run Diff: +102

2020 Win Total: 87.5

The Cardinals had a similar offseason to the Rockies as neither team did much at all. However, the Cardinals will obviously be in much better shape considering they are standing with a much better team than Colorado. My initial thought was to go under on this team but everything depends on the number and price. And after seeing the total at 87.5 i just can't do it.

I have the Cardinals at 88 wins. This division is a 3 horse race in my opinion. Its the Cubs, Reds, and Cardinals. Spoiler alert im not high on the Brewers. It may just be whoever stays the healthiest and makes a few upgrades that win this division. I could make a case for all three winning. But since i'm trying to make money doing this I will have to take a side somewhere. Unfortunately, its not going to be here. I've heard some very smart people on this under but im not following suit. I commonly reference this organization to the New England Patriots or baseball. No matter if you can see some weakness here or there they always seem to have someone within the organization come on and fill the void. That factored in with a nice group of veterans like Goldy, Molina, Fowler and a couple young promising players like Edman at 3rd base and Flaherty an ace on the mound Ill just stay away.

I actually am not totally sold on Flaherty yet. So from a fantasy aspect i probably won't jump on him as early as most people but Im not fading him either. Maybe this is the year Alex Reyes comes around? With a couple things that break right i can see this team winning the division but i'm not betting on it.

No play.

Mr0ctober · 04-18-20, 11:08 PM

Alright I have waited long enough.

Taiwan baseball:
Uni Lions +210 (1u)
Lions/trust brothers over 8.5 (-125) (1.2u)

Mr0ctober · 04-19-20, 08:57 AM

enough.

Taiwan baseball:
Uni Lions +210 (1u)✅
Lions/trust brothers over 8.5 (-125) (1.2u)✅

2-0 +3.3u

Mr0ctober · 04-24-20, 12:13 AM

Monkeys/lions over 10.5 runs (-115) (to win 1u)

Mr0ctober · 04-24-20, 09:58 AM

Monkeys/lions over 10.5 runs (-115) (to win 1u)✅

Baseball season 2020 3-0 +4.3u✅

Mr0ctober · 04-25-20, 08:06 PM

Back to it

brothers/guardians over 9 (+100) (1u)

Mr0ctober · 04-28-20, 10:50 PM

brothers/guardians over 9 (+100) (1u)

Baseball season 2020 3-0 with a push +4.3u✅

April 29th 6:35am eastern

monkey/guardians over 10 (-105) (1u)

see if we can stay hot.

good luck all be safe

Mr0ctober · 05-08-20, 07:27 PM

April 29th 6:35am easternmonkey/guardians over 10 (-105) (1u) loss ❌

CPBL Baseball season 2020 3-1 with a push +3.25u✅

Mr0ctober · 05-08-20, 08:46 PM

Been trying to pick my spots but might try start grinding a little now I have a little better data and model adjusted somewhat.

CPBL:
brothers +182 (0.6u)

KBO
wiz +180 (0.6u)
dinos over 9.5 -115 (0.5u)
Lions over 9.5 (-102) 0.5u)

Mr0ctober · 05-11-20, 11:59 PM

Year to date:

CPBL Baseball season 2020 3-2 with a push +2.65u✅

KBO: 1-0 +0.5u✅

5/12:
KT Wiz +125 (0.5u)
KT wiz over 8.5 (-103) (0.5u)

Mr0ctober · 05-13-20, 06:39 PM

Year to date:

CPBL Baseball season 2020 3-2 with a push +2.65u✅

KBO: 2-1 +0.5u✅