Sightseeing for Twin Metropolitan Red Birds

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Sightseeing for Twin Metropolitan Red Birds
    The Padres flopped in a 10 inning affair on me, and the Red Birds just flat out got mobbed on by the Phils. The Brewers had their chances, but couldn't seal the deal. The Wahoos however did what they were supposed to do by dismantling the Mariners for a clean sweep.

    I had a terrible hangover this morning and couldn't post it, but Cliff Lee was a strong play at that price. Cobwebs are gone and now I am ready for the new week and series.

    St. Louis will lick their wounds and return home knowing that they will have the Dodgers waiting on them. The Red Birds are 8-2 straight up against the Dodgers at home. Carpenter is going for the Red Birds in game 1 and that will help out a lot. The price is a bit high for this series, but it is indicative of what will happen.

    Red Birds-1.5 +125 (I can't pay that kind of juice for one game)
    Red Birds-155 for series ( A little high, and I know why)

    If any team has another teams' number that would be the Mets over the Rockies. The Mets are 18-2 at home the last 20 against the Rockies, and the line for the series tells me that I am onto something. The Mets are starting to play a little better and they are even hitting better than the Rocks over the past few days. Time to ride the momentum. The Mets won't be this bad for too much longer.

    Mets+142
    Mets-110 for series

    The Twins are flat out better than the Pale Hose at home, and I know that on a personal basis because I am a Pales fan. Somehow I don't see them winning a series there with the horrid record of 2-8 in their last 10 attempts. And it's not looking like it will get any better as the twins are knocking the stuffing out of the ball right now.

    Twins-115
    Twins-150 for series (Once again it's high and I know why)

    The Orioles also have an 8-2 home record aganst the Royals, but the boys in blue are due and the O's have horrid pitching. The Royals may come out and get it done.

    The JM Plays for Monday are

    Cincy-150 (May want to play the -1.5 but it is Homer Bailey....)
    Texas-130 (Gonna be tough to beat those Tigers)

    Tailing Jerseyshop101 and Panekkk with the D-Backs as they scored in 6 seperate inings and the record is stellar.

    D-Backs+100

    My own personal play outside of my series wagers

    Tampa Bay-105
  • Panekkkk
    SBR MVP
    • 03-12-09
    • 2430

    #2


    Even when the opposing team (Philly in this case) scores in 5 or more innings the previous game, the money is still on the home side (Arizona). I have a tough time going against Philly at this time though!!! Not sure I can pull the trigger but it is Moyer on the hill
    Comment
    • Dexter
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-24-08
      • 25829

      #3
      (3x) yankees -120

      (1x) pirates +1.5/+100 (A1/A2)

      (2x) cubs -140
      Comment
      • JayRow
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 02-13-09
        • 871

        #4
        Texas didn't get swept.. How are they a JM play?
        Comment
        • cocknocker
          Restricted User
          • 11-06-08
          • 8001

          #5
          Jay Row you've got to do more homework than that. The Tigers have actually beaten the Rangers an incredible 7 straight times overall going back to last year, sweeping them twice. Which of course is why I may/may not play that JM play. The Tigers seem to just have their number, and the Rangers pitching numbers don't equal up to the Tigers. Not even close. Both teams have horrid bullpens so there's no refuge there...
          Comment
          • cocknocker
            Restricted User
            • 11-06-08
            • 8001

            #6
            Originally posted by Dexter
            (3x) yankees -120

            (1x) pirates +1.5/+100 (A1/A2)

            (2x) cubs -140
            Cubs are getting hot right now. Nice play. Looks like we're going head to head on the Rays/Yanks though. I would wish you luck , but then that wold mean that I would wish for my team to lose, lol! Good luck with your other two selections!
            Comment
            • JayRow
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 02-13-09
              • 871

              #7
              Originally posted by cocknocker
              Jay Row you've got to do more homework than that. The Tigers have actually beaten the Rangers an incredible 7 straight times overall going back to last year, sweeping them twice. Which of course is why I may/may not play that JM play. The Tigers seem to just have their number, and the Rangers pitching numbers don't equal up to the Tigers. Not even close. Both teams have horrid bullpens so there's no refuge there...

              Cocknocker,
              I apologize. As a student of yours, i am trying to get better and better at capping games and staying true to systems. I must be confused about the JM baseball system.. i thought the team had to be coming off a sweep and playing a team within .01 RPI...
              Comment
              • PortsDave
                SBR Sharp
                • 06-13-09
                • 447

                #8
                JayRow

                The JM baseball system is not based on a team coming of a sweep in their last series, its based on their last series against the team they are playing, The Rangers opponents today are the Tigers the Rangers were swept by the Tigers the last time they met on 5/19-5/21.
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #9
                  I don't put filters on the JM system JayRow. I thought the system was fine the way that it always has been even before it was packaged and sold...I am making a few of my plays right now and some of the others I am letting marinate for a minute, most notably the Red Birds. The line is high and I am waiting for some Dodger money to drive it down a bit...I am fully vested, but ain't nothin' wrong with taking the Brewers today. I think that it will get ugly. It would also be more advantageous to break the games up a bit instead of paying the ignorant series price (-240). Just keep taking the Brewers until the Nats leave town

                  Tweet Nation Pay Attention: Don't list the bottom 3 as plays yet. I am waiting on the lines to do their thing. The plays on the Rays, Twns, Mets, Red Leggins have already been made. The D-Backs, Rangers, Red Birds haven't been played yet for today's games.


                  Rays+100 Played already
                  Twins-104 Played already
                  Mets+145 Played already
                  Red Leggins-1.5 +125 (JM)Played already (Can't be payin' -169 for Homer Bailey)

                  Rangers-135 (JM) I am waiting on the line to drop a bit
                  Red Birds-1.5 +135 ( Waiting and watching the line awhile)
                  D-Backs+102 (Waiting and watching the line awhile)
                  Comment
                  • cocknocker
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-06-08
                    • 8001

                    #10
                    What a joke. The Rockies are 2-18 in games on the road against the Mets, yet they are favored -158/+148. Unbelieveable. And the public is buying it too with a consensus of 97% to 3% on the runline figures and 75% to 25% on the moneyline. WOW! If the Mets win this game, there will be a lot of angry people out there!
                    Comment
                    • ragiche
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-09-08
                      • 3110

                      #11
                      Booked plays.(booked it earlier,gonna go out with the family)

                      Metros +148 (3x) Tailing CK.

                      Redleggins -163 (3x) Tailing CK & PANEKKK.

                      Brewcrew -150 (3x) My pick.

                      Cubbies -146 (3x) My pick.

                      GL tonight guys .
                      Comment
                      • cocknocker
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-06-08
                        • 8001

                        #12
                        Midday and the lines are warming up and looking good consensus wise

                        COL 68%
                        NYM 32%

                        CWS 56%
                        MIN 44%

                        LAD 32%
                        STL 68% Line is stabilized at -160

                        NYY 68
                        TAM 32%

                        SDG 13%
                        Red Leggins (JM)87% EVERYBODY

                        DET 22%
                        TEX (JM)78% EVERYBODY

                        PHI 90% WHOA!
                        ARI 10%




                        Comment
                        • cocknocker
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-06-08
                          • 8001

                          #13
                          So it looks like the JM plays are very public plays, of course. The Red Birds can still end up on the minority believe it or not, because that Dodger money will come in when everyone gets home from work. Still waiting on the D-Backs, Red Birds, and Rangers
                          Comment
                          • SexyMit
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 10-12-06
                            • 6139

                            #14
                            Well I'm going to take the Pitt/SF over 7 as my play today. Plus the other 2 that we talked about already! Lets make that money tonight!
                            If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                            I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                            Comment
                            • kevindakota00
                              Restricted User
                              • 03-16-09
                              • 721

                              #15
                              ck how about the astros with wandy pitching a .77 whip last 3
                              Comment
                              • cocknocker
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-06-08
                                • 8001

                                #16
                                No Red Birds play for me tonight. I like Wellemeyer and Piniero matchups to get my win. The price is too high and it is falling with the consensus in favor of the Red Birds.

                                Red Birds-1.5 +135 NO PLAY

                                However.....


                                D-Backs+100 was played earlier this afternoon

                                I played the JM play this way for the

                                Rangers-1.5 +120 (Sort of JM. I can't pay -160 for this Hunter guy)


                                Smoking on a totals play late that looks pretty promising with respect to where the joes are placing their money.
                                Comment
                                • cocknocker
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 11-06-08
                                  • 8001

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by kevindakota00
                                  ck how about the astros with wandy pitching a .77 whip last 3
                                  Houston+1.5 -155 is the exact identical value of takin the Cubs-155 straight. But the steam looks correct for taking the Cubs IMO..

                                  Make no mistake about it, Wandy is on fire.
                                  Comment
                                  • SexyMit
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 10-12-06
                                    • 6139

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by cocknocker
                                    No Red Birds play for me tonight. I like Wellemeyer and Piniero matchups to get my win. The price is too high and it is falling with the consensus in favor of the Red Birds.

                                    Red Birds-1.5 +135 NO PLAY

                                    However.....


                                    D-Backs+100 was played earlier this afternoon

                                    I played the JM play this way for the

                                    Rangers-1.5 +120 (Sort of JM. I can't pay -160 for this Hunter guy)


                                    Smoking on a totals play late that looks pretty promising with respect to where the joes are placing their money.
                                    Look at the stats, those 2 pitchers already played on July 17th and the score was 2-1. So I'm really starting to like the play more and more as the night goes on! And they have played 3 times already this yr and gone under the total all 3 times, well actually they tied it the last time.
                                    If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                                    I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                                    Comment
                                    • Dexter
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 12-24-08
                                      • 25829

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                                      Cubs are getting hot right now. Nice play. Looks like we're going head to head on the Rays/Yanks though. I would wish you luck , but then that wold mean that I would wish for my team to lose, lol! Good luck with your other two selections!
                                      aramis ramirez making all the difference. i was shocked you werent on your boy harden yesterday. hes back popping 96 when needed.

                                      in this matchup tonight, im giving a big revenge angle checkmark to the cubs who lost twice this year at hou vs rodriguez. last time wandy was in chi - 6er in 5ip 2008. big z with a career 2.61/1.10 vs hou.
                                      Comment
                                      • Mendozaaaa
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 07-22-09
                                        • 391

                                        #20
                                        Good luck today CK and all.

                                        I'm new to MLB but play -
                                        2.5 units LA Angels
                                        1.5 units Boston Red Sox [EDIT: It's -1.5 not ML]
                                        2.5 units NY Yankees
                                        3.5 units Milwaukee Brewers
                                        1 unit Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
                                        3.5 units Colorado Rockies
                                        0.5 units Colorado Rockies -1.5
                                        Comment
                                        • Dexter
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 12-24-08
                                          • 25829

                                          #21
                                          the belmont meet has ended, and i finished down a whopping $41. all my final stats are posted in that thread for the best bets etc....i was up $500ish at one point early, then down around $500.....fought back to almost even, as i had a 10/1 shot in the final race finish second by a head bob which would have had me nicely on the + side....thats cool. its time for saratoga

                                          Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.


                                          card is up for day 1 on wed....
                                          Comment
                                          • Dexter
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 12-24-08
                                            • 25829

                                            #22
                                            wow....josh willingham with 2 grand slams! got him on both fantasy teams!

                                            im feeling a little bottom of the 9th wrigley magic! then set it up for oswalt off a loss tomorrow..
                                            Comment
                                            • Dexter
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 12-24-08
                                              • 25829

                                              #23
                                              Tue 7/28-

                                              (3x) reds -1.5/+130 (A3)

                                              (3x) astros +100 (A3)

                                              (3x) under dbacks 7.5 (A5)

                                              (1x) yankees -150

                                              (2x) redsox -1.5/-110

                                              (1x) twins -120
                                              Comment
                                              • cocknocker
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-06-08
                                                • 8001

                                                #24
                                                Not bad for Monday

                                                Twinkles Win
                                                Mets Win
                                                Red Leggins JM Win
                                                Rangers-1.5 Win
                                                Rays Loss
                                                D-Backs Pending

                                                On my series

                                                Red Birds 1-0
                                                Twins 1-0
                                                Mets 1-0
                                                Comment
                                                • Dexter
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                  • 25829

                                                  #25
                                                  good job fontenot....clutch
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cocknocker
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                    • 8001

                                                    #26
                                                    Looking ahead to Tuesday I like

                                                    D-Backs-130 Haren. Say no more

                                                    Phillies are crushing it right now. No more betting against them.

                                                    After that revisement, I have these

                                                    Mariners-116 HEAVY Washburn um hmmm
                                                    Marlins+105 HEAVY
                                                    Marlins-1.5 +225 RRL (Bachelor Play for KMarinouofm)

                                                    Series bets

                                                    Red Birds-116 Billingsley has never beaten 'em. Why go against the grain?
                                                    Mets+125 You already know that they are gonna sweep Colorado
                                                    Twins-125 HEAVY Buerhle threw a no-hitter last time out. Of course I'm fading him
                                                    Twins-1.5+160 (They didn't get their 1.5 win yet. All the others did)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dexter
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                      • 25829

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                      Twins-125 HEAVY Buerhle threw a no-hitter last time out. Of course I'm fading him
                                                      exactly - easy auto-fade.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • texhooper
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-05-09
                                                        • 10001

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                        Twins-125 HEAVY Buerhle threw a no-hitter last time out. Of course I'm fading him
                                                        i had a feeling you'd say that and i figured it'd be a good play. let's snag it.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • texhooper
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-05-09
                                                          • 10001

                                                          #29
                                                          haha...dex likes it too...we got some consensus amongst the heavies on an "easy" low juice home fave. good times.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dexter
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-24-08
                                                            • 25829

                                                            #30
                                                            yeah, im gonna have to put a few extra $$ down on it now that mr heavy is going heavy.

                                                            ok cubs...end this shit now.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • cocknocker
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 11-06-08
                                                              • 8001

                                                              #31
                                                              The D-Backs had the movement, and steam and are promptly getting blown out. I hate it when I read a line that is right and has RLM and it doesn't translate into results. Given the same set of circumstances, I would make the wager again. The six innings play has been hitting at a good %, so I am not deterred by this loss in the least bit. And who knows? maybe the D-Backs can mount a comeback
                                                              Comment
                                                              • cocknocker
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 11-06-08
                                                                • 8001

                                                                #32
                                                                Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor? Neither one of these gys will give you 100% effort night in or night out, so for all things considered, it's an even trade and shoul not have been made. At least Okafor can make a few free throws...
                                                                Comment
                                                                • texhooper
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-05-09
                                                                  • 10001

                                                                  #33
                                                                  AGREED, i was pulling up to my building when i heard about this and my first thought was "an average big man for a big man that's hurt all the time and doesn't want to be better than average." and to think someone makes a f*ckload of money for engineering these types of trades. there must have been something underneath the surface in regards to contracts or something that's putting money in someone's pockets, otherwise this makes no sense.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Dexter
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 12-24-08
                                                                    • 25829

                                                                    #34
                                                                    soriano with the blast....now 1 more run for the pirates
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • texhooper
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-05-09
                                                                      • 10001

                                                                      #35
                                                                      a walk off grand slam? wow, how often does that happen?
                                                                      Comment
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