MLB - Saturday, 8/3/19

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Saturday, 8/3/19
    1 MLB Play Saturday

    Tigers +101 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 232-255-12, -17.47


    Record at All-Star Break: 183-208-10, -21.46
  • jjgold
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-20-05
    • 388179

    #2
    Chipping away

    Good work
    Comment
    • snider
      SBR Sharp
      • 03-25-17
      • 309

      #3
      Boyd might become the best hurler on the staff if Houston can land him.
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        3 MLB Additions

        4 MLB Plays Saturday

        Brewers / Cubs OVER 9 -105 (Heritage)
        Blue Jays -115 (Heritage)
        Red Sox / Yankees UNDER 11 +100 (GAME #2) (Heritage)

        Tigers +101 (5 Dimes)
        Comment
        • snider
          SBR Sharp
          • 03-25-17
          • 309

          #5
          I thought the model was an edge thing. Everybody has their opinion on why the down year, so I’ll say I’ve noticed an inordinate amount of favs this season. What are the units on dogs and unders only ?
          Comment
          • LT Profits
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-27-06
            • 90963

            #6
            Originally posted by snider
            I thought the model was an edge thing. Everybody has their opinion on why the down year, so I’ll say I’ve noticed an inordinate amount of favs this season. What are the units on dogs and unders only ?
            Correct, as I have been saying all along. I have been hurt by chalk winning at an abnormally high rate, although the last week has been much better for me chopping off 9+ units in the last 5 days.

            Breakdown
            Sides: 87-126, -28.77
            Totals: 145-129-12, +11.30
            Comment
            • snider
              SBR Sharp
              • 03-25-17
              • 309

              #7
              You been on more chalk than usual also seemingly. That tricky oddsmaker is giving an edge fading Baltimore?
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #8
                Originally posted by snider
                You been on more chalk than usual also seemingly. That tricky oddsmaker is giving an edge fading Baltimore?
                Seems like it, I get Toronto 57% (-133)
                Comment
                • billyloco
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-07-06
                  • 1411

                  #9
                  LT! Keep on keeping on!!!
                  Comment
                  • sk0002
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 09-03-15
                    • 610

                    #10
                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                    Correct, as I have been saying all along. I have been hurt by chalk winning at an abnormally high rate, although the last week has been much better for me chopping off 9+ units in the last 5 days.

                    Breakdown
                    Sides: 87-126, -28.77
                    Totals: 145-129-12, +11.30
                    Chalks winning are unprecedented rate are probably due to juiced ball... no? Eventually it will evens out as Odds-makers will make dogs high enough to eventually evens out the field and make dogs once again worth the bet, thats why your sides betting will do better later of the season as opposed to earlier, as adjustment being made.
                    Comment
                    • PhillipKessel
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 08-01-18
                      • 290

                      #11
                      Originally posted by LT Profits
                      Seems like it, I get Toronto 57% (-133)
                      Same. Love the Jays (again) today.
                      Comment
                      • LT Profits
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 10-27-06
                        • 90963

                        #12
                        Originally posted by sk0002
                        Chalks winning are unprecedented rate are probably due to juiced ball... no? Eventually it will evens out as Odds-makers will make dogs high enough to eventually evens out the field and make dogs once again worth the bet, thats why your sides betting will do better later of the season as opposed to earlier, as adjustment being made.
                        Juice ball affects game totals more than sides I would think. Why would it affect chalk winning? Ball is juiced for both teams.
                        Comment
                        • KVB
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 05-29-14
                          • 74817

                          #13
                          The Contrarian Fund tracks the contrarian market but not always exactly as it attempts to pick off the value created there. It is a different strategy than LT, but it can be an indicator of the markets. Right now, the contrarian market as a whole is doing better than Fund, but that's just normal ebb and flow.

                          Through all 477 plays, the Fund is -4.39 units overall.

                          Totals are 152 of those plays and here's the breakdown...

                          KVB MLB Contrarian Fund TOTALS performance:
                          3-Aug 1 Unit
                          per bet Wins Loss Push Cancel
                          OVER 0.4 29 27 1 1
                          UNDER -6.19 41 45 5 3
                          Total -5.79 70 72 6 4

                          So you can see the UNDERS are off a bit but the Fund continues to find value on the UNDER in this juiced up environment.

                          Between Fri and Sat, the Fund is 4-0 with UNDERS, so results maybe regressing there from a broader market perspective.

                          LT may not represent that broader perspective, but he has navigated the Totals well this year and he could easily get that regression and a jump in the sides as chalk has been paying.

                          There is plenty of MLB left and if the chalk does chill out, I suspect we'll both benefit and the Fund will get to it's expected return in no time.

                          Good Work LT, keep grinding.

                          Comment
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