MLB - Saturday, 8/3/19

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Play Saturday

Tigers +101 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 232-255-12, -17.47


Record at All-Star Break: 183-208-10, -21.46

[jjgold]

Chipping away

Good work

[snider]

Boyd might become the best hurler on the staff if Houston can land him.

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Additions

4 MLB Plays Saturday

Brewers / Cubs OVER 9 -105 (Heritage)
Blue Jays -115 (Heritage)
Red Sox / Yankees UNDER 11 +100 (GAME #2) (Heritage)
Tigers +101 (5 Dimes)

[snider]

I thought the model was an edge thing. Everybody has their opinion on why the down year, so I’ll say I’ve noticed an inordinate amount of favs this season. What are the units on dogs and unders only ?

[LT Profits]

I thought the model was an edge thing. Everybody has their opinion on why the down year, so I’ll say I’ve noticed an inordinate amount of favs this season. What are the units on dogs and unders only ?

Correct, as I have been saying all along. I have been hurt by chalk winning at an abnormally high rate, although the last week has been much better for me chopping off 9+ units in the last 5 days.

Breakdown
Sides: 87-126, -28.77
Totals: 145-129-12, +11.30

[snider]

You been on more chalk than usual also seemingly. That tricky oddsmaker is giving an edge fading Baltimore?

[LT Profits]

You been on more chalk than usual also seemingly. That tricky oddsmaker is giving an edge fading Baltimore?

Seems like it, I get Toronto 57% (-133)

[billyloco]

LT! Keep on keeping on!!!

[sk0002]

Correct, as I have been saying all along. I have been hurt by chalk winning at an abnormally high rate, although the last week has been much better for me chopping off 9+ units in the last 5 days.

Breakdown
Sides: 87-126, -28.77
Totals: 145-129-12, +11.30

Chalks winning are unprecedented rate are probably due to juiced ball... no? Eventually it will evens out as Odds-makers will make dogs high enough to eventually evens out the field and make dogs once again worth the bet, thats why your sides betting will do better later of the season as opposed to earlier, as adjustment being made.

[PhillipKessel]

Seems like it, I get Toronto 57% (-133)

Same. Love the Jays (again) today.

[LT Profits]

Chalks winning are unprecedented rate are probably due to juiced ball... no? Eventually it will evens out as Odds-makers will make dogs high enough to eventually evens out the field and make dogs once again worth the bet, thats why your sides betting will do better later of the season as opposed to earlier, as adjustment being made.

Juice ball affects game totals more than sides I would think. Why would it affect chalk winning? Ball is juiced for both teams.

[KVB]

The Contrarian Fund tracks the contrarian market but not always exactly as it attempts to pick off the value created there. It is a different strategy than LT, but it can be an indicator of the markets. Right now, the contrarian market as a whole is doing better than Fund, but that's just normal ebb and flow.

Through all 477 plays, the Fund is -4.39 units overall.

Totals are 152 of those plays and here's the breakdown...

KVB MLB Contrarian Fund TOTALS performance:
3-Aug	1 Unit
	per bet	Wins	Loss	Push	Cancel
OVER	0.4	29	27	1	1
UNDER	-6.19	41	45	5	3
Total	-5.79	70	72	6	4

So you can see the UNDERS are off a bit but the Fund continues to find value on the UNDER in this juiced up environment.

Between Fri and Sat, the Fund is 4-0 with UNDERS, so results maybe regressing there from a broader market perspective.

LT may not represent that broader perspective, but he has navigated the Totals well this year and he could easily get that regression and a jump in the sides as chalk has been paying.

There is plenty of MLB left and if the chalk does chill out, I suspect we'll both benefit and the Fund will get to it's expected return in no time.

Good Work LT, keep grinding.