Fred The Hammers MLB Season Thread

[Fred The Hammer]

Thanks fellas! Man on 2nd/1 out....1 run from being 8-0? Nice start though!!

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Boston/Oakland Over 8 (-115) $125 to win $109

Somebody named Brooks for the A's and David Price. Boston's pitching just got blasted for 34 runs in 4 games vs Seattle. Price had a great year last year, but had 1 start vs Oakland and gave up 4 er in 7.2 ip. He just doesn't have the stuff that he used to have. I think he overachieved last year and will start his decline this year.

[spippen]

Adding:

Boston/Oakland Over 8 (-115) $125 to win $109

Somebody named Brooks for the A's and David Price. Boston's pitching just got blasted for 34 runs in 4 games vs Seattle. Price had a great year last year, but had 1 start vs Oakland and gave up 4 er in 7.2 ip. He just doesn't have the stuff that he used to have. I think he overachieved last year and will start his decline this year.

I agree. Over 8 runs IS the play.

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Orioles Over 3.5 (-120) $150 to win $125

2 team parlay (first leg only) Baltimore +161 for $35


Going right back with Baltimore today! The O's won the series in New York. They're swinging the bats a little bit and feeling good about themselves! Reid-Foley for the Jays has control issues. 33 ip last year with 21 walks and 6 hrs allowed! I like the O's chances tonite!

Good Luck!!

[mikmik]

So what’s the parlay?

[Fred The Hammer]

So what’s the parlay?

You can bet the 1st leg and leave the 2nd one open.

O's with a shot to hit their Over in the 1st inning again!!!

[mikmik]

Ah ok

[The_Kid]

Adding:

Boston/Oakland Over 8 (-115) $125 to win $109

Somebody named Brooks for the A's and David Price. Boston's pitching just got blasted for 34 runs in 4 games vs Seattle. Price had a great year last year, but had 1 start vs Oakland and gave up 4 er in 7.2 ip. He just doesn't have the stuff that he used to have. I think he overachieved last year and will start his decline this year.

Nice job getting this early. Total has moved to 9.

[spippen]

Another 1st inning winner.

[skoalclasic]

Easy

[Fred The Hammer]

Bang! O's in the 1st again. You smell that? It stinks in here because I'm the shit!!!!



8-1 (+764)

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Seattle Over 4.5 (+110)

2nd leg of the parlay $35 to win $157 & $80 to win $88

M's are red-hot with the sticks with 48 runs in 6 games. They're going to cool off, but hitting is contagious! The key here is fading Chris Stratton. He had a ugly 5.09 era for SF in that huge park, so I can't see how switching to the AL will help? He can't be sharp...hasn't pitched yet? I like Seattle to keep it going!

[Mackballs]

Freddy excellent work

[consensusontap]

Great work Hammer

[Fred The Hammer]

Thank you gentleman!!

O's hang on at +161. Part one complete

[spippen]

Nice work Hammer.

[Fred The Hammer]

Nice work Hammer.

Thanks man! Seeing it well so far!

[Fred The Hammer]

Seattle 4-0 in the 1st. Another easy winner on the way

Thats a major angle imo....hot team vs a 5th starter type with his first innings of the year. They just traded for the guy, but they should've given him a few innings in mop-up time like Bieber w/the Indians the other day or Cessa with the Yanks yesterday

[HilltopTony]

Excellent work Hammer! You're a "must read" daily!

[spippen]

nice work. It's all about beating the book.

[swordsandtequila]

[magpie878]

Going to start following this thread.

I'm getting sick, so I made one play before crashing early last night, Sox/A's under 9. Certainly didn't expect a 7-0 A's win, but I'll take it.


Good job.

[Louisvillekid1]

Good job

[Fred The Hammer]

Going to start following this thread.

I'm getting sick, so I made one play before crashing early last night, Sox/A's under 9. Certainly didn't expect a 7-0 A's win, but I'll take it.


Good job.

Thanks fellas! I watched the rest of the games this morning when I woke up. A's were up 7-0 and 1st/2nd nobody out but couldn't push with another run? I could easily be undefeated....but still looking good! I'm also working at home now so more time to concentrate on this shit! 2-0 with parlays so far as well!!

I think I will reexamine playing the A's Over at home? Their park is huge with 5x more foul territory then other parks. Their pen is really good as well and its cold there. Def love their offense and their starting pitching will be iffy in the end, but gearing more towards playing them Over on the road.

9-2 (+ $884)

[Fred The Hammer]

The card seems a little tougher today?

Adding:

Twins/KC Under 8 (-130) buying .5 run $130 to win $100

Low of 45 degrees in KC tonite with 2 strong pitchers in Berrios and Keller. Thats enough analysis for me on this one

[2daBank]

How good is that Keller kid? Advanced metrics don’t love him but I’ve long since known that doesn’t necessarily mean anything cause they don’t value guys who know how to pitch without high strikeout rates!

I just Havnt had a chance to see him so I dunno., appears he has a pretty heavy sinker and gets a ton of ground balls. Lot of instances you can find guys like him the analytics geeks don’t like and get good value on him or totals cause the computer dorks will continually be waiting for that alleged regression that may never come!

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Arizona Over 1.5 thru 5 innings (-125) $100 to win $80

The Diamondbacks having been swinging it pretty well so far with 32 runs in 5 games (6.4 per game). I don't know much about Eric Lauer for SD, but he gave up 127 hits in 112 ip last year. Thats pretty hittable! Plus Petco doesn't play like it used to. They brought the fences in.

Lets Do It!!!

[spippen]

I don't think anyone expected Boston to lay an egg. They certainly do look like a 1-4 team.

[2daBank]

I don't think anyone expected Boston to lay an egg. They certainly do look like a 1-4 team.

Can’t believe the prices on them right now. Obviously they really good and will figure things out but while they playing like crap, while sale velo is down, it just doesn’t make sense to even think about laying that price.

[Fred The Hammer]

How good is that Keller kid? Advanced metrics don’t love him but I’ve long since known that doesn’t necessarily mean anything cause they don’t value guys who know how to pitch without high strikeout rates!

I just Havnt had a chance to see him so I dunno., appears he has a pretty heavy sinker and gets a ton of ground balls. Lot of instances you can find guys like him the analytics geeks don’t like and get good value on him or totals cause the computer dorks will continually be waiting for that alleged regression that may never come!

I haven't seen a ton of him, but he's around the plate and only allowed 7 bombs in 140 ip last year. I agree with you completely! There is something to be said about the skill of allowing them to hit it, but keeping them from getting the meat of the bat on it! I argued with several dorks on a Reds blog several years ago. They're really into BABIP (Batting Avg on Balls in Play), but I said some guys just have a flawed swing. They hit it, but end up popping up or making weak contact. For instance Zack Cozart was one of the 2-3 worst hitters in MLB several years ago and they argued that it was bad luck. Bad luck? He would pop up atleast 10x a week? He wasn't keeping his hands inside the ball. They'll say the same stupid shit when a guy hits extremely well. His BABIP was lucky. How? Because he consistently hit the ball hard? Isn't that the point? BABIP is the ultimate dumbass dork stat of them all

[Fred The Hammer]

Good job

Thank you brother. SBR old timers have to stick together I was a pro with the screen name of Mr Handicapable but my login wouldn't work one day? I changed my screen name and they took my pro status? I've been on SBR for atleast 12 years.

[2daBank]

The advanced metrics are a great tool but imo it a huge mistake to use them as the be all end all that some do. It good for us some do tho cause they often drive the market and give us good value against their assumptions that regression a certainty, so thank god for the computer geeks! I’ve seen them wait years for regression on a guy then when he gets old/starts faltering off his game they are right there to say “see there the regression” lmfao. Gotta love them!!

I use contact numbers a great deal as well. Nothing flukey imo about making good pitches and missing barrel of the bats!

[Fred The Hammer]

The advanced metrics are a great tool but imo it a huge mistake to use them as the be all end all that some do. It good for us some do tho cause they often drive the market and give us good value against their assumptions that regression a certainty, so thank god for the computer geeks! I’ve seen them wait years for regression on a guy then when he gets old/starts faltering off his game they are right there to say “see there the regression” lmfao. Gotta love them!!

I use contact numbers a great deal as well. Nothing flukey imo about making good pitches and missing barrel of the bats!

I use stats, but I use my eyes as much as anything. Old school handicapping I feel like I can scout as good as alot of these guys in MLB or NFL. I probably can't in reality, but I catch shit all the time that they miss. Josh Hamilton came up and played 1 year with the Reds. I said to myself....this guy has more bat speed and raw ability then almost anyone I've ever seen. They traded him and he almost (should've) won that WS vs St. Louis. He would've put the Reds over the top if they kept him?

[rclang64]

Adding:

Arizona Over 1.5 thru 5 innings (-125) $100 to win $80

The Diamondbacks having been swinging it pretty well so far with 32 runs in 5 games (6.4 per game). I don't know much about Eric Lauer for SD, but he gave up 127 hits in 112 ip last year. Thats pretty hittable! Plus Petco doesn't play like it used to. They brought the fences in.

Lets Do It!!!

Damn, I can’t find this at Bovada or Heritage.

Nevermind

[spippen]

rclang64 you can always just use the play as a feel and bet the team total over for the game. You could ask Fred The Hammer what books offer that line also , or post the question in the forum. I don't know who offers those lines.