Nickelicious MLB Picks

[Nickelicious]

Jeez, after hanging all night and day with the crowd in here, I ended up with picks on every game! Posting here NOT to be tailed (many games are going into first pitch as I type), but just to document my brilliance or stupidity.

Only half a dozen of these picks were purely mine. The others were all inspired by people other than myself; that said, I could have picked either side on all contests, given the breadth of opinions here.

LAA ML +110 2 units
Fla ML -125 1 unit
Fla RL +170 2 units
Col/SD O7 1 unit
Col ML -125 1.5 units
Atl/NYM U9 1 unit
Cubs ML -125 0.5 unit
Cubs RL +140 1 unit
Cubs/Was O8.5 1 unit
Sea ML +170 1 unit
LAD ML -145 2 units
LAD RL +155 1 unit
LAD/Hou O8 1 unit
Cin ML -115 3 units
Atl RL +120 3 units
Sea/Cle O8.5 1 unit

[Nickelicious]

Jeez, after hanging all night and day with the crowd in here, I ended up with picks on every game! Posting here NOT to be tailed (many games are going into first pitch as I type), but just to document my brilliance or stupidity.

Only half a dozen of these picks were purely mine. The others were all inspired by people other than myself; that said, I could have picked either side on all contests, given the breadth of opinions here.

LAA ML +110 2 units
Fla ML -125 1 unit
Fla RL +170 2 units
Col/SD O7 1 unit
Col ML -125 1.5 units
Atl/NYM U9 1 unit
Cubs ML -125 0.5 unit
Cubs RL +140 1 unit
Cubs/Was O8.5 1 unit
Sea ML +170 1 unit
LAD ML -145 2 units
LAD RL +155 1 unit
LAD/Hou O8 1 unit
Cin ML -115 3 units
Atl RL +120 3 units
Sea/Cle O8.5 1 unit

Number of bets: 16
W/L record: 7-9

Total units bet: 23.
Net units: -3

Total risk: $1150
Net gain: -$20

The plus odds on the Atlanta RL, Cubs RL and Angels ML helped me salvage a pretty unspectacular night.

The Dodgers and Reds killed me, but I'm doing a little mini-chase on both of them. No way the Dodgers get swept in 4 games at home with Houston. Cincinnati is an unofficial JM system play. Will post all new picks before game time tomorrow.

Nobody should be tailing a newbie like me. This thread is purely for record keeping.

[Nickelicious]

KCR RL -130 2 units
Tor ML -120 2 units
Atl RL +110 2 units
Cin ML -120 9 units
LAD ML -155 7 units
LAD RL +135 3 units
Col RL +110 1 unit
WNBA:
Atl Dream +10 -160 3 units
Sea/Sac O140 -110 2 units

Nobody should be tailing a newbie like me. This thread is purely for record keeping.

[Nickelicious]

KCR RL -130 2 units
Tor ML -120 2 units
Atl RL +110 2 units
Cin ML -120 9 units
LAD ML -155 7 units
LAD RL +135 3 units
Col RL +110 1 unit
WNBA:
Atl Dream +10 -160 3 units
Sea/Sac O140 -110 2 units

Number of bets: 9
W/L record: 5-4

Total units bet: 31.
Net units: +3

Total risk: $1550
Net gain: +$12

The Dodgers cost me big time. I'd be up over $500 in two days if it weren't for them. They are 9-9 in their last 18 games and I'm beginning to doubt them. Because of my success with the rest of my card, I'm modifying my chase on the Dodgers to recoup their losses and maybe squeak out a few bucks.

Cincinnati won bet B on an unofficial JM system play. These unofficial plays work pretty well, just one loss on the season (by the Nationals, naturally).

I've also bet JM Champ Selections both days and went 0-2, dropping 5 units. I think that's the end of that.

For my Season Total below, I am dropping the WNBA picks (which basically broke even) so that this thread can continue as a pure MLB pick thread.

Season Total:
Number of bets: 23
W/L record: 11-12

Total units bet: 49.
Net units: -1

Total risk: $2450
Net gain: -$45

One more note: on +110 odds, I bet $50 per unit to win $55. On -110 odds, I bet $55 per unit to win $50. I consider these both one-unit bets. I am not anal about math, okay? I'm not gonna use a calculator and figure everything out down to .01 unit levels. In the long run, it will be pretty obvious how good or bad my picks are based on the stats cited here.

I'll post all Saturday's picks in my next post.

[Nickelicious]

The Dodgers chase continues....

LAD ML -180 11 units (thank god for overnight lines, this is -200 or worse everywhere now)
LAD RL +115 6 units
Tex ML -115 2 units
Tex RL +160 1 unit
Sea ML -110 2 units
Sea RL +140 1 unit
KC ML -125 1 unit
and the counterintuitive play of the day:
Bal ML +130 1 unit

[Nickelicious]

LAD ML -180 11 units
LAD RL +115 6 units
Tex ML -115 2 units
Tex RL +160 1 unit
Sea ML -110 2 units
Sea RL +140 1 unit
KC ML -125 1 unit
and the counterintuitive play of the day:
Bal ML +130 1 unit

Number of bets: 8
W/L record: 4-4

Total units bet: 25.
Net units: +15

Total risk: $1250
Net gain: +$581

The Dodgers came through on the chase, though I wish it had been yesterday instead of today.

Season Total:
Number of bets: 31
W/L record: 15-16

Total units bet: 74.
Net units: +14

Total risk: $3700
Net gain: +$536

I have 9 baseball wagers ready for tomorrow and will post them before game time. But the British Open will be teeing off soon, so I am going to post my picks here before it does:

Tom Watson +500 1 unit
Retief Goosen +500 1 unit
Mathew Goggin +1000 0.5 unit

Essentially betting that one of these three wins the tournament at 2-1 odds.

[Nickelicious]

Added a few more plays to my card. A combination of systems and my own research tells me Philadelphia continues their winning streak today after getting rained out yesterday.

Phi ML -125 5 units
Phi RL +140 2 units
Phi/Fla U9 -105 2 units
Sea ML -115 1 unit
Bos ML +115 2 units (odds moving now)
ChW ML -135 1 unit
Cubs ML -125 1 unit
SF/Pit U7.5 -115 3 units
Col ML -145 1 unit
Col RL +120 2 units
LAD RL +115 1 unit
NYM/Atl U8 +100 1 unit

[Nickelicious]

Phi ML -125 5 units
Phi RL +140 2 units
Phi/Fla U9 -105 2 units
Sea ML -115 1 unit
Bos ML +115 2 units
ChW ML -135 1 unit
Cubs ML -125 1 unit
SF/Pit U7.5 -115 3 units
Col ML -145 1 unit
Col RL +120 2 units
LAD RL +115 1 unit
NYM/Atl U8 +100 1 unit - PUSH

Well, I lost my British Open bets but had a good day on the diamonds. Trying to make up most of my golf loss with a 2-unit bet on Minnesota tonight (I won't chase it if it loses, and so far it's winning). The Minnesota bet will be strictly unofficial since I didn't post it prior to game time. Whether I win or lose that, the official record for today and the season is looking greener all the time:

Number of bets: 12
W/L record: 8-3-1

Total units bet: 22.
Net units: +13

Total risk: $1200
Net gain: +$463

Season Total:
Number of bets: 43
W/L record: 23-19-1

Total units bet: 96.
Net units: +27

Total risk: $4900
Net gain: +$999

[Nickelicious]

Atl ML -160 6 units
NYY RL +100 3 units
Pitt ML -110 1 unit
Pitt/Mil U9 +100 1 unit
Col RL +135 3 units
Col ML -150 1 unit
LAA ML -120 2 units
LAA RL +130 2 units
Hou ML -105 3 units
Hou/StL U9.5 -115 2 units
Min ML -120 2 units
Min/Oak U8.5 +100 1 unit
NYM/Was U9.5 -110 2 units
Fla/SD U8 -110 3 units

[Nickelicious]

Atl ML -160 6 units
NYY RL +100 3 units
Pitt ML -110 1 unit
Pitt/Mil U9 +100 1 unit
Col RL +135 3 units
Col ML -150 1 unit
LAA ML -120 2 units - RAIN OUT
LAA RL +130 2 units - RAIN OUT
Hou ML -105 3 units
Hou/StL U9.5 -115 2 units
Min ML -120 2 units
Min/Oak U8.5 +100 1 unit
NYM/Was U9.5 -110 2 units
Fla/SD U8 -110 3 units

Crushing loss by Minnesota after being up 12-2. Turned a great night into just a very good one. And I swear, every time I bet on the evil empire, they kill me. Then every time I bet against them, they kill me again. I will not bet against the Yankees again the rest of this regular season. But like a sucker, I will probably bet on them. Still, who am I to whine after being up 40+ units in the last three nights?

Cancelled wagers (rain outs) have been removed from stats.

Number of bets: 12
W/L record: 8-4

Total units bet: 28.
Net units: +14

Total risk: $1400
Net gain: +$656

Season Total:
Number of bets: 67
W/L record: 31-23-1

Total units bet: 124.
Net units: +41

Total risk: $6300
Net gain: +$1655

Overnight tip: Bet on the Braves run line now while you can still get positive odds. I put down 2 units already, may increase it depending on the line moving tomorrow.

[oda11]

Impressive, keep it up!

[Nickelicious]

NYY/Bal U10.5 -110 4 units (added 3 more units as free play - unofficial win or lose)
NYY RL +105 2 units
Phi RL +160 3 units
Phi ML -125 4 units
Atl RL +110 2 units
Mil ML -130 3 units
Tex ML +150 1 unit
Min ML +120 1 unit
LAD RL +115 2 units
Doubleheader Chase
LAA ML -130 3 units
if Angels lose, chasing $265 win on money line in 2nd game

[themajormt]

I like them all besides the Texas and the Minny game. I cant get myself to bet on them 3 nights in a row after losing the runline Sunday night with a walk off 2 run home run and then losing a 6 unit Ml bet with them up 12-2 or whatever they were up.

GL tonight!

[Nickelicious]

NYY/Bal U10.5 -110 4 units (added 3 more units as free play - unofficial win or lose)
NYY RL +105 2 units
Phi RL +160 3 units
Phi ML -125 4 units
Atl RL +110 2 units
Mil ML -130 3 units
Tex ML +150 1 unit
Min ML +120 1 unit
LAD RL +115 2 units
Doubleheader Chase
LAA ML -130 3 units
if Angels lose, chasing $265 win on money line in 2nd game

Nice, clean 10-0 sweep today. Got lucky with the Yankees/Orioles under (after 8 runs were scored in the first 4 innings) and with Philly getting a homer in bottom of the 13th to cover my RL bet. My only regret (besides not playing a parlay, which we all know would've been dumb) was not betting more on the Atlanta RL, because only a last minute doubt kept me from putting 5 units on that one.

Today's payoff was especially good because of all the >+100 wagers I hit. My bankroll is up over 70% in the past 4 days!

Number of bets: 10
W/L record: 10-0

Total units bet: 23.
Net units: +23

Total risk: $1150
Net gain: +$1835

Season Total:
Number of bets: 90
W/L record: 41-23-1

Total units bet: 147.
Net units: +64

Total risk: $6300
Net gain: +$3490

I have never swept a card with this many bets before and I probably never will again. I have proved nothing here except I can have a pretty good week. Always use due diligence when tailing anyone, as I do.

[themajormt]

Nice hit... now do it 2 days in a row!

[Nickelicious]

This is the day I will lose more than half my picks... Doesn't it always happen that way? To help guarantee this, I am putting big money on a big underdog like the Reds. Fate be damned!

Pit/Mil U9 -110 2 units (overnight line, now 8.5, still like it)
AZ/Col U9.5 -120 2 units
Bos ML -120 1 unit
NYY RL -130 4 units (line is worse now, but it's a winner)
Atl ML -110 3 units
Hou RL -160 4 units
Cin ML +180 4 units
Sea ML -125 1 unit
Cle/Tor U9 -120 2 units
NYM/Was U9 +100 2 units

[Nickelicious]

This is the day I will lose more than half my picks... Doesn't it always happen that way? To help guarantee this, I am putting big money on a big underdog like the Reds. Fate be damned!

Pit/Mil U9 -110 2 units
AZ/Col U9.5 -120 2 units
Bos ML -120 1 unit
NYY RL -130 4 units
Atl ML -110 3 units
Hou RL -160 4 units
Cin ML +180 4 units
Sea ML -125 1 unit
Cle/Tor U9 -120 2 units
NYM/Was U9 +100 2 units

Well, that'll teach me to bet 4 units on +180 dogs. Well, not really! But the Reds losing turned another great day into just a good one, but I'll take +7 units every day for the next two months.

Number of bets: 10
W/L record: 6-4

Total units bet: 25.
Net units: +7

Total risk: $1250
Net gain: +$217

Season Total:
Number of bets: 75
W/L record: 47-27-1

Total units bet: 172.
Net units: +71

Total risk: $7550
Net gain: +$3707

[MexicanStallion]

Congrats on another positive day. Not perfect, but like you said +7 isn't bad.

[Nickelicious]

Playing heavy on JM's bet A which I don't think will go past bet B. Also taking a flyer on the Padres, with the ML to make a profit and the RL to salvage a loss. Kevin Correia has given the Padres 11 quality starts and I'm hoping he can keep the awful Padres within 1 run of a Phillies team that might be a little deflated after their winning streak got capped. The line was too attractive not to take a chance with it.

And lots of RLs today. Not expecting to win all of them but even a 40% win rate will turn a healthy profit.

LAA ML -145 11 units
LAA RL +150 3 units
NYY RL -130 3 units
SD ML +240 2 units
SD RL +105 2 units
Tor RL +140 3 units
Det RL +180 2 units
ChW RL +175 2 units
AZ RL +100 2 units
Atl RL +120 2 units
ChW/TB U9 -105 3 units

[IcE]

GL Nick

[Nickelicious]

GL Nick

Well, off to a pretty bad start so far, losing 1 and so far splitting the other 4 in the afternoon games, with those in the late innings.

[Nickelicious]

Adding last-minute parlay:

LAA RL +100
AZ RL +140
2 units to win 7.5 units
($100 to win $380)

[IcE]

Adding last-minute parlay:

LAA RL +100
AZ RL +140
2 units to win 7.5 units
($100 to win $380)

not looking so good

[IcE]

Adding last-minute parlay:

LAA RL +100
AZ RL +140
2 units to win 7.5 units
($100 to win $380)

wow nice both teams turned it around.

[Nickelicious]

LAA ML -145 11 units
LAA RL +150 3 units
NYY RL -130 3 units
SD ML +240 2 units
SD RL +105 2 units
Tor RL +140 3 units
Det RL +180 2 units
ChW RL +175 2 units
AZ RL +100 2 units
Atl RL +120 2 units
ChW/TB U9 -105 3 units

Adding last-minute parlay:
LAA RL +100
AZ RL +140
2 units to win 7.5 units

The Angels miraculous comeback (against Joe Nathan, no less) saved my ass from a really bad losing night. But that's the thing about JM system plays. I bet them big on the A bet, taper down a bit on the B bet unless I am REALLY confident, and schedule a break even or small loss on the C bet, which just don't come that often.

So I got a win on the A bet tonight on a miracle. But that particular A bet is gone forever, so I'm glad I took the big risk to get the big payoff. I got my money and anyone who bet small on the A bet got smaller money. I'm just ticked that the Angels couldn't get me that win on the RL, too, which would have cashed me over 500 dollars with my parlay.

And as a lifelong Chicago fan I have to congratulate Mark Buerhle on his perfect game. Not only did he make history, but he made me money. Let me set the record straight, though: I am a Cubs fan down to the Cubbie-blue blood. But since I don't live in Chicago, I am allowed to root for both teams. If I lived in Chicago, I'd have to hate the Sox to be a Cubs fan, but growing up in California and now living in Memphis, I just root for anything Chicago. And I've been doing that for 39 years.

Number of bets: 12
W/L record: 5-7

Total units bet: 37.
Net units: +5

Total risk: $1750
Net gain: +$235

Season Total:
Number of bets: 87
W/L record: 52-34-1

Total units bet: 209.
Net units: +76

Total risk: $9300
Net gain: +$3942

This has been a great week. Up 76 units in 7 days and boosting my bankroll by over 80%. But this winning streak will probably end the first time I lose a JM system play, so don't expect a 20-day winning streak from me. But if I lose that system play, I'll make it up the next day or the day after. As Joey says, it's not about the units, it's about the $$$$$$.

[Nickelicious]

Going fairly heavy with JM bet A today, but not as heavy as the Angels winner yesterday, which I was sure wouldn't make it past the B bet. A fair number of unders, too, hoping pitchers all over the league will be inspired by Buerhle's gem. I've got a big card today, and might still add units or plays before tonight's action. Bear in mind, though, my $50 units carry less risk for me now because of my bankroll growing.

ChC ML -155 1 unit
Det GM1 RL +110 3 units
Det/ChW GM1 U8.5 -120 2 units
Tor ML -140 8 units
Tor RL +160 2 units
Atl ML -125 2 units
Sea ML -125 2 units
Phi ML -135 2 units
LAD ML -145 2 units
LAA ML -150 3 units
SD/Was U9.5 -115 2 units
Hou/NYM U8 -110 2 units
SF/Col U9 -110 2 units

[solo1969]

Going fairly heavy with JM bet A today, but not as heavy as the Angels winner yesterday, which I was sure wouldn't make it past the B bet. A fair number of unders, too, hoping pitchers all over the league will be inspired by Buerhle's gem. I've got a big card today, and might still add units or plays before tonight's action. Bear in mind, though, my $50 units carry less risk for me now because of my bankroll growing.

ChC ML -155 1 unit
Det GM1 RL +110 3 units
Det/ChW GM1 U8.5 -120 2 units
Tor ML -140 8 units
Tor RL +160 2 units
Atl ML -125 2 units
Sea ML -125 2 units
Phi ML -135 2 units
LAD ML -145 2 units
LAA ML -150 3 units
SD/Was U9.5 -115 2 units
Hou/NYM U8 -110 2 units
SF/Col U9 -110 2 units

i'm on "mil",but good luck!

[Nickelicious]

ChC ML -155 1 unit
Det GM1 RL +110 3 units
Det/ChW GM1 U8.5 -120 2 units
Tor ML -140 8 units
Tor RL +160 2 units
Atl ML -125 3 units
Sea ML -125 2 units
Phi ML -135 3 units
LAD ML -145 2 units
LAA ML -150 4 units
SD/Was U9.5 -115 2 units
Hou/NYM U8 -110 2 units
SF/Col U9 -110 2 units

Clean 3-0, +6 unit sweep this afternoon, so I'm adding a couple plays (below) and boosting units on three others (bolded above).

Bos RL +125 2 units
Tex ML +135 2 units

[Nickelicious]

ChC ML -155 1 unit
Det GM1 RL +110 3 units
Det/ChW GM1 U8.5 -120 2 units
Tor ML -140 8 units
Tor RL +160 2 units
Atl ML -125 3 units
Sea ML -125 2 units
Phi ML -135 3 units
LAD ML -145 2 units
LAA ML -150 4 units
SD/Was U9.5 -115 2 units
Hou/NYM U8 -110 2 units
SF/Col U9 -110 2 units
Bos RL +125 2 units
Tex ML +135 2 units

Number of bets: 15
W/L record: 9-6

Total units bet: 40
Net units: +2

Total risk: $2000
Net gain: +$41

Season Total:
Number of bets: 102
W/L record: 61-40-1

Total units bet: 249.
Net units: +78

Total risk: $11,300
Net gain: +$3983

Well, losing the JM system bet clearly dampened my celebration tonight, but I still managed to pull out my 8th straight winning card. With the ML running at -105 to -120 on the Blue Jays tomorrow, look for at least 16 units on them. If I lose that one, this little winning streak will definitely come to an end.

[Nickelicious]

Riding heavy on the Blue Jays and the JM system bet B. But also riding heavy on Boston to destroy Baltimore as they continue to snap out of a losing streak and chase the Yankees. Also counting on the Yankees to match the Sox win-for-win. I am going for a big score today, but even though I have 47 units riding so far, bear in mind that those 47 units only represent about 28% of my bankroll. Still trying to figure out if I should increase my unit level to $100, but that would screw up my Season Total stats on total risk, so I'm inclined to just let it ride. Any advice on that, gentlemen?

I may add units or plays after the afternoon games. That strategy produced a winning night last night, so I will stay flexible before 6:00 PM.

NYY RL -130 5 units
Tor ML -110 16 units
Tor RL (-1.5) +170 4 units
Pit ML +130 3 units
Atl ML +120 2 units
Sea RL +115 3 units
Bos RL -110 8 units
Col ML -160 2 units
Hou ML -135 4 units

[Nickelicious]

After the Toronto bloodbath, plus a very disappointing loss with the Yanks, I'm adding 4 units on the Astros ML at -135.

This will be a day from Hell. Thank God I built up the BR all week long. But it won't be any easier to take when it's over.

[themajormt]

Why Houston and not Boston? Fading the Mets???

[Nickelicious]

With 8 units on the Boston RL already, I'm skittish about riding one game for that many units, having gotten burnt to a crisp doing that with Toronto. If I get a sweep with Hou and Bos then my night will be salvaged. If I split, then my night sucks. If I lose both, then I am toast and my BR really does take a significant hit. I need everything to hit green tonight, and we know that doesn't happen but once in a blue moon.

[Nickelicious]

Went ahead and did it. 2 more units on the Red Sox RL at -110. Even if I sweep the night, can't make it into the black, but a win here would soothe the pain.

[Nickelicious]

Adding 3 units on LAD/Fla U9 -110.

Splitting my big and little bets so far tonight, so what the hell. It's only money.

And adding 2 units on LAD RL +115.