Tbill's Jubilee of Baseball Glory

tbill11 · 07-11-09, 02:57 AM

Record After Day 1:
2-1 +1.00 Units

Not a bad start, especially considering a blew a nice chuck of money on the WNBA today. Anyway, here's two picks that popped out at me right now. I'll probably update with some other ones tomorrow, but here are the two to get you guys started on Saturday.

Tbill's Glorious Picks for Saturday July 11

Phillies/Pirates UNDER 9 -105
I actually could see the Pirates pulling out a win here, but most importantly, this will be a pitchers duel. Ohlendorf is going to bring his A game against Hamels to prove that he's the real deal, and most likely will do so. Also, both of these clubs are hitting pretty poorly as of late, with Pittsburgh batting under .200 in their last 3 games and the Philles struggling a bit at the plate. I predict a low scoring game in this one.

White Sox EV (2 Units)
I really like this pick. Floyd and Perkins have almost identical stats in their last three starts, yet somehow Minnesota's favored despite hitting under .200 in their last three and slugging .303. They also won the first game of this series despite this dreadful hitting, and I feel that Chicago and karma will take it's revenge in game two of this series.

That's all for now, more tomorrow!

tbill11 · 07-11-09, 05:12 PM

Added Play for Saturday July 11

Indians/Tigers UNDER 10 -120
Everyone expects Pavano and Galarraga to come out and pitch a throw away game, but these pitchers have both posted very low WHIPs in their last three starts, and neither club is hitting very well. As we know, Pavano and Galarraga are not bad pitchers, they have just had generally rough years. Galaragga showed flashed of brilliance earlier this year and Pavano has been stellar in his last few starts. This game goes under!

Good luck everyone!

tbill11 · 07-12-09, 01:57 AM

Record After Day 2
4-2 +3.95 Units

Will be back in the morning with plays!

tbill11 · 07-12-09, 11:25 AM

Today's tough because there's a few obvious traps on the board. Buehrle being an underdog and the Tigers/Indians total being as high as 9 are the two obvious ones. Therefore, I'm not going to get trapped and will be staying away from two plays that I like, the Sox and the Under. Here are my other choices.

Cardinals EV (Game 1)
I love Wainwright and Wells, and this is sure to be a pitchers duel, but the Cardinals have been hitting more consistently and have a much better bullpen than the Cubbies. Cubs will most likely comeback and win with Zambrano in the afternoon, but you've gotta like Wainwright and the Red Birds in the morning.

Blue Jays/Orioles UNDER 9
This is a very interesting game, which is why I think the line movement has been rather strange. The pitchers are untested, and it's really hard to know when they're going to blow up and finally give up their one 8 run game. But the Orioles and Blue Jays are crap hitting teams. 9 is a gift of a total when these two teams get together. I'm gonna press my luck and take the under.

Mariners -1.5 +135
Texas couldn't hit a barn door right now and Bedard is owed a win. Nippert's an awful pitcher. All of the stars are aligning for a Seattle blowout.

I'll be out of town for a few days but I'll update record when I get back and have some picks for after the All Star Break.

tbill11 · 07-12-09, 01:10 PM

In the above post I meant to say Game 2. Wainwright and Wells are in the night game...just missed that. Good luck everyone!

tbill11 · 07-13-09, 12:34 AM

Well, I'm glad that my baseball picks are going well to offset the crap week I've had in every other sport. Updated records going into the all-star break

Tbill's Glorious Record after Day 3
Day: 3-0 + 3.35 Units
Overall: 7-2 +7.30 Units

tbill11 · 07-16-09, 02:35 PM

I hate this whole "coming off the All-Star break" day or two where you don't really know how the teams are going to perform. It's like the beginning of the season all over again. That said, here's a couple picks to hopefully keep my record going strong.

Tbill's Glorious Picks for Thursday July 16
Phillies +101
This was a difficult pick for me to make because it's such a public play, but sometimes the public is correct. The Phillies are knocking the crap out of the ball right now, and while I am concerned about their bullpen WHIP in the past 3, their facing the Marlins bulllpen, which blows leads like none I've seen other than the Nats. I think the Phillies end up taking this one.

Brewers EV
The Brewers have the edge in almost every major category, plus they Prince Fielder's home run derby domination has to have energized the squad, yet the public is all over the Reds. Braden Looper is not a bad pitcher! Him and Bailey are almost identical in their past 3, and in the season. The big difference is that the Brewers are slugging .474 in their past 3 to the Reds .369. Brew Crew rolls here.

Mariners +180
The Indians are a crappy ballclub, hitting horribly recently, with a struggling Lee on the mound. It's highly possible that Lee will make an adjustment and win this game tonight, but the Mariners really do have the statistical edge.

Alright everyone, good luck tonight!

tbill11 · 07-17-09, 01:00 AM

Another positive day! No morning games tomorrow so I won't post my picks right now, but here are the updated records.

Tbill's Glorious Record after July 16
Day: 2-1 +1.01 Units
To Date: 9-3 +8.31 Units

tbill11 · 07-17-09, 02:26 PM

Alright guys, got some more good picks coming in today. Let's keep this streak going!

Brewers +118
It really doesn't make sense for the Brewers to continue to be underdogs to the lowly Reds. Arroyo and Suppan are both crapshoot pitchers, but the Brew Crew are hitting better, have a better pen, and are just a flat out better team. I'm picking them again to win today.

Royals/Rays Under 8.5 (-120)
Bannister and Shields are due for a pitching duel, and although the Rays are hitting well, the Royals won't be able to contribute enough runs to make this total go over.

Diamondback +185
Another one like the Mariners yesterday, the D-Backs are hitting much much better than the Cards, and St. Louis should experience a post all-star game letdown here. Carpenter is a stud, but he's also not pitching as well as Garland lately. Nobody expects the D-Backs to come out and win here, but I think it's worth the shot.

Twins +111
Pretty basic systematic pick here: Perkins is a better pitcher, the Twins are hitting better, and really the only thing going against them is the fact that they're on the road.

That's all for today, good luck to whoever views this thing!

tbill11 · 07-18-09, 01:09 PM

Well, not the greatest day yesterday, but I'm bound to have a losing day every once in a while right?

Day Record: 1-3 -2.09 Units
Overall: 10-6 +6.22 Units

Alright, for todays card, here's what I like:

Seattle -121
Phillies/Marlins UNDER 8.5 (-105)
Orioles/White Sox OVER 9 (-125)
Twins +102

Gonna save the explainations today, but they're primarily hitting based over the past three days. Good luck!

tbill11 · 07-19-09, 12:48 PM

Updated from yesterday:
Day Record: 2-1 (1 no play) +0.77 Units
Overall: 12-7 +6.99 Units'

There really isn't much on the board that I like today, but here's what I found.

Tigers +130 2 Units
The Tigers are hitting best in the league yet haven't won a game in this Yankees series yet. That changes today. The hard hitting Tigers will come out and avoid the sweep.

Braves -1.5 (-115)
The Mets are absolutely dreadful and got a miracle win yesterday. I expect the Braves to come back with a blowout in retaliation.

tbill11 · 07-19-09, 10:27 PM

Day Record: 1-1 -1.00 Unit
Overall: 13-8 +5.99 Units

tbill11 · 07-20-09, 02:20 PM

Nationals/Mets UNDER 9.5 (-115)
I understand that these pitchers and bullpens are awful, but they can't be worse than the Mets and Nationals hitting right now. There's no way. Nothing is that awful.

Cubs EV
I don't like messing with streaks, especially when the team on the streak is at home and the pitchers are so evenly matched, but the Cubbies are lighting up the ballpark right now and have a better pen. All other factors aside, the Cubs should win this game. I'll take my chances.

Braves -1.5 (+120)
Worked yesterday, and will work again today. Braves are due to destroy the Giants tonight.

White Sox -101

tbill11 · 07-21-09, 03:40 PM

Day Record: 3-1 +2.20 Units
Overall: 16-9 +8.19 Units

Mariners +141
Texas +156
Hate going against Beckett, but Texas is lighting up the park right now and the Red Sox quite simply, aren't. A good home team grabbing this many crumbs is worth the risk to me.

Cubs +113
Harden's due to return to form and show his old teammate who the ace of that rotation really was. On top of that, the Cubbies are hitting better than the Phillies, and it's only a matter of time before the Phils lose.

themajormt · 07-21-09, 03:45 PM

The Cubs are hitting better than the Phillies?!?!?

Texas is lighting up the park?!?!?!

I know you have to explain your picks but thats a stretch dont you think?

tbill11 · 07-21-09, 05:00 PM

Cleanup Hitter

http://cleanuphitter.com/baseball/stats/multisort.php

Sort according to slugging over the past 3 games. Cubs 2nd best in the league with .509 slugging, Rangers 6th with .467. Harden's a better pitcher than Blanton, although he is struggling. Beckett may be better than Hunter, but the bullpen WHIPs are similar and the Red Sox are hitting 4th worst in the league over their past three.

Baseball's about streaks, and that's what's been the difference between me being down money earlier in the year, and up money now.

tbill11 · 07-22-09, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by tbill11

Day Record: 3-1 +2.20 Units
Overall: 16-9 +8.19 Units

Mariners +141 LOSS
Texas +156 WIN
Hate going against Beckett, but Texas is lighting up the park right now and the Red Sox quite simply, aren't. A good home team grabbing this many crumbs is worth the risk to me.

Cubs +113 LOSS
Harden's due to return to form and show his old teammate who the ace of that rotation really was. On top of that, the Cubbies are hitting better than the Phillies, and it's only a matter of time before the Phils lose.

Day Record: 1-2 -0.44 Units
Overall: 17-11 +7.75 Units

I don't really have time to explain my morning picks before I dart off to work, but here they are:

Brewers +101
Yankees/Orioles Under 10.5 (-110)

tbill11 · 07-22-09, 03:25 PM

Well thankfully the Yanks game just barely stayed under, and I'm breakeven for the day. Moving on to tonight:

Mets/Nationals Under 9 (-105)
The hitting between these two teams is just flatout abysmal. Pelfrey and Stammen are gonna look like superstars facing one another tonight...that's how bad these two teams are right now.

Cardinals/Astros Under 7 (+105)
Gotta give this one a shot. Carpenter and Oswalt are total gamers, and although I hate taking unders when the total is so low, this one could very well end 1-0 or 2-1 or something like that.

Mariners -140
It's games like this where King Felix makes his paycheck.

Oh a side note, gotta love my A's right now. Couldn't pull the trigger and bet on them, but they're looking mighty good up 9-1 in the 2nd with no outs.

themajormt · 07-22-09, 03:30 PM

Good luck tonight... I am on the M's as well...

tbill11 · 07-23-09, 02:16 PM

Day Record: 3-1-1 +2.00 Units
Overall: 20-12-1 +9.75 Units

Well this little experiment has been going even better than I expected. Up almost 10 units in about 2 weeks...not bad for a nickel and dimer like myself. Here's today's card:

Phillies/Padres Under 8.5 (-105)
Correia and Hamels are pitching brilliantly and the Pads and Phillies are not hitting brilliantly. The Phils keep scoring runs somehow though, which perplexed me because of their rather mediocre batting average and slugging in recent games. I'm afraid Correia will get some jitters coming into the World Series champs home, but still think that the numbers support this pick.

Twins/Angels Over 8.5 (-105)
I think Vegas forgot that both Baker and Weaver have been getting shelled recently, and that the Angels and Twins have two of the most explosive offenses in baseball. This is going to be a slugfest.

Oakland +250
I want so badly to stay away from this game, but I also want to ride the A's hitting streaks until they die. Vinny's due for a win, seriously overdue, and Sabathia's just good enough to lay an egg in front of his home crowd to a crappy, former rival. +250 is just too much to give the A's right now, and so I have to take the risk.

tbill11 · 07-24-09, 02:46 PM

Day Record: 1-2 -1.05 Units
Overall: 21-14-1 +8.70 Units

Well I wrote big explainations only to have my computer f*ck up and delete my post...I'm not writing them out again haha. The picks will have to do for today.

Dodgers/Marlins Over 7 (-115)
Blue Jays -1.5 (+150)
Cardinals +124
Braves/Brewers Overs 8.5 (-115)

tbill11 · 07-25-09, 03:45 PM

Day Record: 3-1 +2.24 Units
Overall: 24-15-1 +10.94 Units

Padres/Nationals Under 9 (-105)
It's the Padres and Nationals...I mean, on a good day these teams put up three runs apiece. I don't care how unknown the pitchers are...it's the Padres and Nationals.

Red Sox/Orioles Under 9 (EV)
Really hate betting unders at Fenway, but neither of these clubs are hitting very well right now, and Guthrie and Lester have WHIPs around 1.2 in their past three. Hard to see this one going over.

Pirates/Dbacks Over 9 (-120)
Pirates +122

For some reason, I like Ohlendorf. He's really done nothing performance wise to win me over, but he's going to be a good pitcher. The Pirates have been knocking the crap out of the ball since the Larouche trade, and so I see a lot of runs being scored here, and a Pirates victory.

tbill11 · 07-26-09, 01:06 AM

Yikes, rough day.

Day Record: 0-3-1 -3.25 Units
Overall: 24-18-2 + 7.69 Units

Padres +130
Expect the Nationals to lay an egg tomorrow after scoring 13 in the rain delayed game today. The Pads will ride their horse Gaudin to victory.

Braves -121
Gallardo dominated the Braves offense today, but a new day dawns whenever Braden Looper takes the mound. Getting Lowe at this price is just an added bonus.

White Sox +126
These clubs are too evenly matched for the Sox to be getting this many crumbs. Will be a close game, but I think Richard and the Sox will pull it out.

tbill11 · 07-27-09, 04:47 PM

Back to my winning ways with a few nice wins yesterday.

Day Record: 2-1 +1.26 Units
Overall: 26-19-2 +8.95 Units

Today's card:
Angels/Indians Over 10 (-120)
The big sluggers are coming out tonight, with the Indians slugging .690 in their last three, and the Angels slugging .510. That's not the too dreadfully mediocre pitchers on the bump tonight. This game could go either way, but it will go over.

Dodgers/Cardinals Over 7.5 (-115)
The way these clubs are hitting, this game should quickly turn into the "watch Randy Wolf get shelled" show.

Giants/Pirates Under 7 (-110)
On the opposite side of the spectrum, there isn't a number low enough for this game to not go under. Lincecum and Maholm are fantastic pitchers, in a pitcher's ballpark, playing for teams that are slumping at the plate. I predict a Giants win, but it'll be low scoring.

No sides for me today, just these tasty totals. Good luck to anybody who may be viewing. Feel free to post as well!

tbill11 · 07-28-09, 01:36 PM

Day Record: 2-1 +0.85 Units
Overall: 28-20-2 +9.80 Units

I have very little time to do this today, but here are some of my plays:

Angels/Indians Over 9.5 (-105)
Blue Jays EV

That's all I can do right now. Good luck everyone!

tbill11 · 07-29-09, 04:04 PM

Day Record: 1-1 +0.00 Units
Overall: 29-21-2 +9.80 Units

Tigers/Rangers Under 8 (EV)
Verlander will cancel out the Ranger's hot hitting, and the Tigers will continue to struggle to put runs on the board.

Royals/Orioles Under 8 (EV)
Similarly, throw two bad hitting teams, Zach Greinke, and an unseen pitcher into one pool, and a low scoring game will likely result.

Yankees -105
Hate to bet on the Yanks, but the way that they're hitting, they shouldn't be dogs. Yanks win this series and continue their Eastern dominance.

tbill11 · 07-30-09, 02:48 AM

Day Record: 1-2 -1.00 Units
Overall: 30-23-2 +8.80 Units

For tomorrow morning I like:
Red Sox/A's Over 9 (-120)
Brewers/Nationals Over 8.5 (-115)

tbill11 · 07-30-09, 03:27 PM

Afternoon plays:
Braves/Marlins Over 8 (-120)
The Braves and Marlins are both hitting too well for the total to be this low. I'm expecting this to easily go over. A's game already over, now I've just gotta hope that the Brew Crew or Nats score another run to keep me perfect on the day!

tbill11 · 07-31-09, 03:04 AM

Day Record: 3-0 + 3.00 Units
Overall: 33-23-2 +11.80 Units

I kinda have to hope that somebody's going to realize that I'm picking some winners over here eventually. More to come tomorrow!

MexicanStallion · 07-31-09, 08:35 AM

Hey great day you had. I have been checking out your plays. Mainly because I am terrible with over/unders and you have been doing well. Keep up the good work.

tbill11 · 07-31-09, 03:31 PM

Thanks Stallion! Great day I had though, great day you had haha. 7-0? That's unheard of in baseball, congrats!

Red Sox/Orioles Over 9 (-120)
Did Vegas not realize that Smoltz and Guthrie are pitching? And that the Red Sox finally found their bats yesterday? And that even the Orioles have been relatively hot hitting lately?

Tigers/Indians Over 9 (+105)
Carmona's whip in his last three is higher than some guys ERAs, and Jackson hasn't been the same since the all-star break. Not to mention the Tigers slugging .496 in their past three, and the Indians .529.

Giants/Phillies Under 8 (-110)
Balls don't carry in SF at night, and Sadowski's a much better pitcher than his stat's indicate. Plus I think that the young gun will step up and match Cliff Lee, considering how much national spotlight is on this game. I'm gonna love seeing Lee in a Phillies uniform, but I'm not even sure the Phils win this one. Should be a pitchers duel though.

Royals +210
High risk, high reward pick here. Price has done absolutely nothing to deserve -250, and Ponson, although being a trainwreck and my least favorite pro pitcher, is a veteran who can occasionally get the job done. Plus he has a team behind him who is hitting surprisingly well in their recent games, and out to prove that the future holds something for their trade decimated club. Go Royals!

Good luck tonight everyone!

tbill11 · 08-01-09, 01:36 PM

Day Record: 3-1 +2.05 Units
Overall: 36-25-2 +13.85 Units

Man, money's moving now. Let's keep it rolling on this beautiful Saturday:

Giants/Phillies Under 7 (-110)
A hot Blanton, Lincecum, and two of the worst hitting teams in baseball right now. This game could go under 5! Haha

Angels +135
All the buildup of Saunders being a bad pitcher this season has led to this perfect point to capitalize: The Angels grabbing crumbs against a Twins squad that's struggling to hit. Saunders may not post a miracle start, but he's good enough to get the job done today.

Rangers -103
No use having King Felix on the hill if you can't give him run support. Trading Washburn signified that the Mariners are a third place team int he AL West stronger than any message a front office has made before the trade deadline. Getting swept by the 2nd place team is gonna be the end of the Mariners' season tonight.

Dodgers/Braves Under 8.5 (-110)
Lowe's gonna shine against his old club and make them wish he was a part of their playoff run.

MexicanStallion · 08-01-09, 01:57 PM

Nice day yesterday. Keep up the good work. Will probably look at your two over/under plays.

tbill11 · 08-01-09, 05:20 PM

Thanks Stallion. Braves and Dodgers are giving me some indigestion right now haha...4-3 in the 7th. Gotta hope the Braves hold on and pull this one out.