Betting Favorites - New Trial System

[Panekkkk]

Braves -150
Orioles -154
Rangers -161
Cubs -191 * (outside of normal range, play if you like)

Parlay all 4 1 unit to win 5.66 (play if you like)

Rangers and Mariners Under 11 -134 (experimental)

SU
YTD: 45-17 +18.39 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 3-8 +7.65 Units

UNDERS
YTD: 1-0 +1.00 units


Cinci and Mets also a play but holding off on these. Rockies screwed me last two days. I think the Mets get it done but I wouldn't be surprised if the Rockies take tonights game (so says the Contrarian). Hoping for the clean sweep or at least 3-1. That's how this system makes money. The clean sweep give us almost 10 units which more than makes up for any losses. Not so big on the Orioles with Hochevar pitching rather well but Bergesen has not given up more than 3 runs in his last 6 starts and Markakis and Jones finaly woke up yesterday.

More write-up etc. within the hour.

[themajormt]

I unloaded on Philly last night Panek... Are you meaning to tell me that anyone in the right baseball mind could have seen that bumb Petit blanking that all star lineup?? I mean seriously...

[Panekkkk]

Yeah dude that was rough ... I have no explanations for it. 11 RISP stranded but still. The key thing to remember is this: BE CAREFUL WHEN BETTING ON A ROAD SWEEP! When I get a chance I will have to look back and see how many losers of this system were on the verge of a road sweep. Often after winning two games of a road sweep teams will likely be heavy favourites for the third. Maybe I can filter out those games and save a few units. New rules also: 1) No Jays, 2) No Penny

[themajormt]

Oh wow good call on that!! I wonder what the numbers are on that... They probably start looking ahead unless its a major rivalry game...

Jays are definitely out, Penny is out, I think we can never back the Pirates, also make sure we check SF's lineup before taking them... We need a master list!

[GreatDanes52]

what do you guys think of KC/Baltimore under?

[IcE]

what do you guys think of KC/Baltimore under?

I say Balt is ganna have a slug fest.

[IcE]

Braves -150
Orioles -154
Rangers -161
Cubs -191 * (outside of normal range, play if you like)

Parlay all 4 1 unit to win 5.66 (play if you like)

Rangers and Mariners Under 11 -134 (experimental)

GL Panekkk

Im on BAL for now maybe will play some later games.

[Panekkkk]

Okay, so we've hit a bit of a bump the last few days dropping about 5 units total (if you played all the picks and parlays).
2 days before that though we added more than 10 units. Any system or any bettor will hit a rough patch now and again. The point is long-term profit and clearly this system is well above water so far in the long term. This is a conservative, small risk system that makes profit by hitting big leaps forward.


A while back I presented a money management strategy. To anyone tailing, follow this system and you should be fine.
Link to the strategy:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/200939-betting-favorites-new-trial-system-p4.html#post2049220

Again, only jump on to a system after a losing day or two! The last few days have been tough for many bettors it seems so I'm hoping the tide turns today. Maybe wait out today as well if you are unsure. A lot of trades are going down and I think the line makers are having a tough time dealing with the impact.
It seems that 4 game series are also tougher to call. This system is based on lines and based on the books which makes me believe that the books are having just as much trouble picking good favourites lately or they are overpricing some (Jays, Boston with Penny). That might make them money in the short-term, but in the long term, good bettors will spot the value and the lines will adjust accordingly and we will pick up on games that simply should not be touched (Jays, Boston with Penny, Cincy etc.).


Once we hit a nice day I will start to up the unit size on confident bets to cover at least the cost of the parlay. CLEAN SWEEP TODAY!!!

[themajormt]

GL today man... I took the Braves earlier and just going to ride with that. I have lost a shit load the last few days and am going to relax and regroup before getting back to the daily grind.

[Panekkkk]

GL Ice, too bad you came on at a bad time!

[Panekkkk]

Yeah major, that's why I have stuck to just this system. It made 12 units the two days prior to the onslaught and I've only lost about 6 units since then. Some of these 4-game series are just tough to call!

[IcE]

GL Ice, too bad you came on at a bad time!

Its all good yesterday was my season changer time to roll

[Panekkkk]

July 30th, Final

Braves -150
Orioles -154
Rangers -161
Cubs -191 * (outside of normal range, play if you like)

Parlay all 4 1 unit to win 5.66 (play if you like)

Rangers and Mariners Under 11 -134 (experimental)

SU
YTD: 45-17 +18.39 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 3-8 +7.65 Units

UNDERS
YTD: 1-0 +1.00 units


Let's do this.

[Panekkkk]

what do you guys think of KC/Baltimore under?

Hey Danes, I was eyeing it as well. It all depends on Hochevar throwing a good game. Many games fit my under system which is throwing me off and I only chose the Rangers game instead. I think you might be okay buying up to nine but I wouldn't risk a lot. I can't see Bergesen giving up much to a Royals offense. Oriolse take it 5-3 maybe???

[IcE]

dam 5dimes is not loading for me

[GreatDanes52]

Hey Danes, I was eyeing it as well. It all depends on Hochevar throwing a good game. Many games fit my under system which is throwing me off and I only chose the Rangers game instead. I think you might be okay buying up to nine but I wouldn't risk a lot. I can't see Bergesen giving up much to a Royals offense. Oriolse take it 5-3 maybe??? [/quote]

Thanks for the input panekkk Im going to make a small play on it at 9...Under is 19-7-2 in KC last 28 road games...Under is 7-1-1 in BAL last 9 overall...Under is 7-1-1 in BAL last 9 on grass.... Good Luck today Panekk Im playing all the system plays today as well its time for a big day

[Panekkkk]

Damn ... Wish I had taken the Mets. If I hadn't already lost money on Colarado the last 2 games straight I would have been all over this!

[Panekkkk]

That under is on track Danes. Starting to wish I had taken it!

[GreatDanes52]

Yea I was just looking at the trends and the line movement for that pick.. hopefully baltimore keeps the lead well start off the day right... I have a good feeling about todays picks... I was shaky on Cinci too and it looks like you made the right call not playing them ... as far as the Mets go I'm a Mets fan and I hate putting money on them... I added Milwaukee -1.5 I got that from CashMoney

[Panekkkk]

Yeah, glad I held off Cincy but the Mets call is bugging me. If I bet them and the Rockies took this game I woulda quit betting for good lol. So laying off was probably a good idea. Cincy bats are terrible right now. No Dickerson, no Jay Bruce. I think they went and got Balentien from Sea if I'm not mistaken. A guy who's hitting .200... riiiiiiiiighhhttt....

[Panekkkk]

Baltimore bringing home the bacon!

[IcE]

Baltimore bringing home the bacon!

I should just play this game for the day then ill be up 2 days in a row.

[Panekkkk]

I love when I see Carlos Lee up and tell myself that he is going to hit a HR -- and he does. And then Hart proceeds to beam the next two batters. WTF!? I was also counting on Ramirez in the lineup who slugs .750 off of Ortiz...! Come on Cubbies!

[Panekkkk]

Too bad about the Under Danes. As predicted, it came down to Hochevar not holding his end of the bargain. KC did score 3 though... lol

[themajormt]

The AL East teams all scare me because they have such capable offenses... Its tough to take unders with them...

[themajormt]

You didnt take Boston right???

I hope these fukkers blow it and Oakland wins...

[Panekkkk]

Thankfully no I didn't major. They have really been reeling lately and as I was saying earlier Oakland suddenly looks better without Holliday. They've clearly packed in the season so now the players just wanna **** around and have fun. Can't believe what they're pulling off right now. A lot of ppl are going to lose money today. I saw some big bets on Boston.

[themajormt]

Yeah their is some serious action on them... But after how Gio pitched against the Yanks I am not surprised. Im not saying I wouldve taken Oakland at any price, but I am not shocked hes pitching so well...

[themajormt]

Well see what Oaks bullpen can do though...

[Panekkkk]

In other news, Hart is going to give me a "Hart" attack with his ****ed up pitching. I don't even feel safe with a 6-run lead lol! He has literally no accuracy right now it's scary. More balls in the dirt than ... um ... I got nothing.

[Panekkkk]

Braves -150
Orioles -154
Rangers -161
Cubs -191 * (outside of normal range, play if you like)

Parlay all 4 1 unit to win 5.66 (play if you like)

Rangers and Mariners Under 11 -134 (experimental)

SU
YTD: 47-17 +20.39 Units

PARLAYS
YTD: 3-8 +7.65 Units

UNDERS
YTD: 1-0 +1.00 units


Good start to the day! Let's hope this baby keeps on truckin'! Still wish I had added the Mets!

[IcE]

Good start to the day! Let's hope this baby keeps on truckin'! Still wish I had added the Mets!

same here panek but i might be done for the day lol

[themajormt]

Are you happy now with your 6 run lead you greedy fukk??

[Panekkkk]

It's never enough ...

[IcE]

yo panekk
I am having a very hard time deciding to play ATL. Vazquez is doing great for ATL but ATL did lose their first 2 games against FLA. I know your on them but can you explain why?