Mr. Crumbs Leans for Monday July 6, 2009

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Mr. Crumbs Leans for Monday July 6, 2009
    Oh well getting a late start today. It was totally warm in bed now that my woman is gaining baby weight! But anyway, here I am back for more punishment!

    Today I like Toronto on the early game. Romero is actually at this point in his career, a better pitcher than Pettitte, and the Jays have shown inthis series that they can handle the Yankees and are definitely not in awe. They are taking it right to them, and if not for some bullpen implosions, they would actually be looking at sweeping the Bombers. Today they won't let it get away (so I hope) and they will finish off the game with a victory. Romero has a sterling 1.00 WHIP over his last three appearances compared to Pettitte's 1.13. The bats for both sides are in order, and although the Yanks have slight edges, you can tell by the box scores during this series that the Blue Birds are holding their own inevery department except relief pitching. This must impove. Romero must go 8 innings.

    Toronto+135

    I'm riding the Royals into this series with the Tigers fresh off of a nice series win against the mighty Pale Hose. I also got my two wins within the series. I think that since the Royal are hot and the Tigers are not, then this is a good spot to go for the neck. I am looking for more, as they are streaking!

    Royals+125 Series

    Royals+117 Today

    Okay, the Mariners return home off of a grueling east coast trip against the Yanks and Red Sox, both juggernauts. Now the O's are horrible on the road to be sure with a 16-40 road record in their last 56 games. But there's something fresh about this Bergesen kid. He really is that good. I would call an 0.79 WHIP over his lst three appearances pretty darn good stuff. The M's have lost Beltre for a while. I think that it shows up in this game as the O's also own the statistical advantage in batting average, slugging %. The only issues that I see are the one major one with the O's and that's the bullpen. Sherrill and company blow leads unlike any bullpen that I have seen this year outside of the Nats (come on you didn't think I would forget about them). This game will be fun to watch until the last out is recorded trust me on that.

    O's-101


  • Kav
    SBR MVP
    • 02-25-09
    • 3281

    #2
    love the o's today!

    what about the pirates over the stro's?
    Comment
    • solobass
      SBR MVP
      • 01-15-09
      • 1277

      #3
      Word, and thx for the under call yesterday it helped me squeeze a few more dollars out of the man. Yesterday was 8-7 calling all games (53%) and brings 3 day total to 21-24 (47%) and hopefully on the uptick. Do i bet on every game? Heck no but usually have money on 8-12 games. Might not cap the 1:00 game but will have the rest up later, taking my nephew to the park.
      Comment
      • jgbgsox
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-16-09
        • 5774

        #4
        now that i looked at the blue jays game more i like ff more than the game blue jays bullpen has been awful this series blowing win after win and i think romero will outduel pettite
        Comment
        • Panekkkk
          SBR MVP
          • 03-12-09
          • 2430

          #5
          I'm rocking with the Jays as well, but to hedge my bets, I took the Jays FF as well. Bullpen has been the issue, and the Jays should be able to squeeze the lead while Romero is still on the mound.
          Comment
          • cocknocker
            Restricted User
            • 11-06-08
            • 8001

            #6
            Enogsiwon has come up with the shiznit! I am also adding on plays for the California Unders system he is throwing down. I am in full tail mode from now until the end of the season. I did the research and this guy is a genius and has stumbled upon a great thing. If you start to tail these plays please note that i am not the author of this system and no credit should be given to me. All of the praise should be heaped on Enogsiwon (Now is gone) whom I am happy to introduce to the public. If you don't know what he is doing, you would do good to visit his thread and inquire. I am sure that hewould be more than glad to help out. Oh well enough about this rubbish. This willbe the last day that I publicize these plays on my personal thread. I will post these plays from now on in his thread, so as to not tarnish his shine. very well then, here are the plays

            Late California Unders Plays

            Texas/Angels under 8.5 (this one will be too hairy to watch)

            Florida/San Francisco under 7.5


            Change of play now taking the Marlins/Giants to go over 8.5
            Comment
            • cocknocker
              Restricted User
              • 11-06-08
              • 8001

              #7
              Originally posted by solobass
              Word, and thx for the under call yesterday it helped me squeeze a few more dollars out of the man. Yesterday was 8-7 calling all games (53%) and brings 3 day total to 21-24 (47%) and hopefully on the uptick. Do i bet on every game? Heck no but usually have money on 8-12 games. Might not cap the 1:00 game but will have the rest up later, taking my nephew to the park.

              solo, you're not gonna believe this, but this guy Enogsiwon is onto a monster dude. After doing the research, I have decided to endorse and play the games. As far as the Texas call last night I got that one from simply reading the line movements, This shit that he has requires no homework which is my favorite type of wager! It's a system that he has going and it's dead on. After you do the research on what he is doing, I think that you will be just as stunned as I am that somehting could be so easy and have such continual positive results.
              Comment
              • cocknocker
                Restricted User
                • 11-06-08
                • 8001

                #8
                Originally posted by jgbgsox
                now that i looked at the blue jays game more i like ff more than the game blue jays bullpen has been awful this series blowing win after win and i think romero will outduel pettite
                I know..the starter has to go deep innings today. I am sure that the bullpen for both squads has to be a little tired. But the Yanks have Mariano. The Blue Birds have to go deep early and often and build up a lead WHILE the starter keeps the Bombers at bay. Hopefully he will give the bullpen only two innings tops to f*ck off our money!

                Let's go Blue Birdies!
                Comment
                • Tennispro
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 01-13-09
                  • 512

                  #9


                  Blue Jays 1st 5
                  Reds 1st 5
                  Cubs gl all.
                  Comment
                  • cocknocker
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-06-08
                    • 8001

                    #10
                    Wow Tennis Pro, man she is fine!
                    Comment
                    • oda11
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-05-09
                      • 3250

                      #11
                      Isn't that the girl from "The Seventies Show"? What's her name?
                      Comment
                      • Tennispro
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 01-13-09
                        • 512

                        #12
                        Mmmm dont really like her looks to much like my ex gf.
                        But hey if you think she is fine then i did my job.
                        Comment
                        • Mr. Mojo Risin
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 04-15-09
                          • 14

                          #13
                          Her name is Mila Kunis
                          Comment
                          • oda11
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-05-09
                            • 3250

                            #14
                            Mila Kunis!


                            Oops, thanks Mojo, I'm a bit late.
                            Comment
                            • hockeytown71
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 02-21-09
                              • 95

                              #15
                              Thanks CK for the advice yesterday on the Dodger game. I dropped the RL and took them on the ml. It was kinda of crazy, but finished with the win. As for today, I actually really like that Under in the LAA/Tex game. Maybe even throw a little on Texas ml as well. I'm pretty comfortable taking an Under with Millwood on the bump.
                              Comment
                              • ram1502
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 12-26-08
                                • 822

                                #16
                                CK, are you not worried about the Blue Jays output vs. Left handed pitchers in their last 5? They are batting .071 with an OBP of .188, and they haven't scored a run in their last 5 games vs. a leftie. Starting pitching edge and home/away splits favor the Jays, but these guys aren't hitting lefties wortha sh.it.
                                Comment
                                • fastball00
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 07-19-08
                                  • 147

                                  #17
                                  "Late California Unders Plays

                                  Texas/Angels under 8.5 (this one will be too hairy to watch)
                                  Florida/San Francisco under 7.5"

                                  I have looked over the California system plays proposed by Enogsiwon as well and it appears to be a valid system.

                                  However, tonights LAA matchup simply goes against the "under" play considering:

                                  Texas L6 have averaged 40 runs while batting .287
                                  Angles L7 have averaged 46 runs while batting .310


                                  Last 3
                                  Kevin Millwood (R) WHIP 1.50 ERA 3.72 AF 7.7 AA 4.0 OBP .360
                                  Jered Weaver (R) WHIP 1.80 ERA 8.10 AF 7.7 AA 6.0 OBP .388

                                  Since 2008 when these two teams have played the Angles @ home the 0/U = 6-7
                                  Althought these two pitchers faced each other on 7/1 in LA when the line was 9.5 and the final score = Tex 9 vs LAA 7.

                                  The San Francisco matchup is still vaild condsidering various statistics and trends. However, a stronger play maybe on the RL +130.

                                  San Francisco is 49-31 W/L RL thus far this year and Cain is pitching this evening vs West

                                  L3
                                  Sean West (L) WHIP 2.09 ERA 6.28 AF 6.3 AA 4.3 OBP .437
                                  Matt Cain (R) WHIP 1.14 ERA 2.86 AF 1.3 AA 2.7 OBP .287

                                  Aslo consider since 2006 when these two teams play in San Francisco the 0/U = 5-5-1
                                  Comment
                                  • cocknocker
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-06-08
                                    • 8001

                                    #18
                                    ram baby,

                                    it's the right call. One look at the consensus numbers will reveal the smell of chicken cooking as the public is 75% on the Yanks RL, and 56% on the moneyline, while the Jays have a measleay 25% on the runline and 44% on the moneyline. One has to ask one's self. How would Vegas make money off of this ealy game and have a big payday while doing it? I'll tell you. The Blue Jays win and al of the money will be scooped off of the crap table except for the contrarian money, which is where my money is.

                                    I have done all of the research that a person can do on baseball. And what I am coming to realize this year moreso than in other years is to place your money where it can't be seen. In other words go against your conventional thinking. It makes sense to take the Yanks, so I'm going the other way and staying away from what the joes are playing
                                    Comment
                                    • ram1502
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 12-26-08
                                      • 822

                                      #19
                                      Thanks CK. I'm gonna go with Romero as well and hope the Jays can right their bats. GL to us.
                                      Comment
                                      • cocknocker
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-06-08
                                        • 8001

                                        #20
                                        I know fastballOO, but I have learned one thing about systems over the years. In order for you to get all of the results you must play ALL of them with reckless abandon. After all ,your beautiful research won't mean a hill of beans if the game ends up going under. I don't like to get too scientific when I wager, because I will end up talking myself out of wins. Thanks for taking the time to look things over though, I don't want you to feel as if I am dismissing your efforts. But my mind is made up, and it gets played. I really like this system. It's golden
                                        Comment
                                        • Chi_archie
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 07-22-08
                                          • 63167

                                          #21
                                          too early to make any calls about Romero being better than pettite.... kid has about 10 major league games under his belt.... once he gets around the league a little bit more, i'm sure his era will be closer to the mid 4's than under 3. He's never pitched this well anywhere else before....
                                          Comment
                                          • spal2811
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 12-02-08
                                            • 306

                                            #22
                                            Florida/San Francisco U8.5 at my book
                                            Comment
                                            • shoebox
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 11-26-08
                                              • 5710

                                              #23
                                              For Monday I will be on.....changing the Padres to the RL

                                              Braves +100 2 units
                                              royals +120 2 units
                                              Texas +140 2 units
                                              Padres +1.5 -130 2 units





                                              GL everyone
                                              Comment
                                              • thegenix
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 11-14-08
                                                • 339

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by spal2811
                                                Florida/San Francisco U8.5 at my book
                                                Mine too! At -110, I'll take it.
                                                Comment
                                                • fastball00
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 07-19-08
                                                  • 147

                                                  #25
                                                  spal2811, yep same here locked in the Giants U @ 8.5/-110. In addition to the Giants RL +130 and the LAA O @ 8.5/-112

                                                  Leaning on the Phils U @ 9 as well however it seems everyone else is too, therefore, I am going to stay away - plus not much value there given the vig.

                                                  GL
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cocknocker
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                    • 8001

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                                    too early to make any calls about Romero being better than pettite.... kid has about 10 major league games under his belt.... once he gets around the league a little bit more, i'm sure his era will be closer to the mid 4's than under 3. He's never pitched this well anywhere else before....
                                                    Pettitte is a dump truck and is fortunate to have good run support. Romero is the bomb. He's doing it right now
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Panekkkk
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-12-09
                                                      • 2430

                                                      #27
                                                      Jays are actually getting to Pettite early after Romero almost imploded in the first. I love how Cito throws in Johnny Mac cuz his numbers against Pettite are amazing and now JMac gets a chance to shine. 2 on 2 out. JMac at the dish.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Panekkkk
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-12-09
                                                        • 2430

                                                        #28
                                                        And he grounds out. Who didn't see that one coming.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Panekkkk
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-12-09
                                                          • 2430

                                                          #29
                                                          3 RUN HR RIOS!!!

                                                          4-0 Jays!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • cocknocker
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 11-06-08
                                                            • 8001

                                                            #30
                                                            Blue Birds better keep the pedal to the metal though. The Bombers have live bats on the bench with Damon and Matsui! Gotta tack on some more runs for the late inning onslaught!

                                                            Let's go Blue Birds!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Chi_archie
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 07-22-08
                                                              • 63167

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                              Pettitte is a dump truck and is fortunate to have good run support. Romero is the bomb. He's doing it right now

                                                              you were right about pettite today for sure....
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Panekkkk
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-12-09
                                                                • 2430

                                                                #32
                                                                Wow anyone watching this game!? Jose Bautista with two amazing catches has single-handedly kept the lead for the Jays!!!

                                                                Saved a triple and just prevented a run and turned it into a double-play to get A-Rod back at first!!!

                                                                ****ing Jays, if they had only gone out and gotten Ibanez like they were rumored, this team could have been a real factor (minus all the pitchers on the DL).
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Panekkkk
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-12-09
                                                                  • 2430

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                                  Blue Birds better keep the pedal to the metal though. The Bombers have live bats on the bench with Damon and Matsui! Gotta tack on some more runs for the late inning onslaught!

                                                                  Let's go Blue Birds!
                                                                  After 3 straight wins at home you had to figure that the Yanks would throw out their B-squad (although their B-squad is an A-squad) whereas the Jays NEED this win. Jays will more than likely need at least 3 more runs to finish this thing off. Their offense has completely fizzled (7 straight outs).
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • cocknocker
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                                    • 8001

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                                                    you were right about pettite today for sure....
                                                                    24 scoreless innings for Romero and counting!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Panekkkk
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-12-09
                                                                      • 2430

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Romero had the luck of the Irish going today! Oh yeah, and Girardi got booted in the 1st!!! Can't help but think that that helps the Jays a bit
                                                                      Comment
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