I posted a while ago about expected Cobb positive regression. It has panned out, look how he has done since I posted it. And there is still room for more as his ERA - xFIP is still +0.65.
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mpaschal34
SBR Posting Legend
02-04-13
12087
#6
If you believe in Cobb, then the under is probably a good play.
Comment
MinnesotaFats
SBR Posting Legend
12-18-10
14758
#7
LT
is your model based primarily on the strength of the starting pitching matchup? I see alot regarding Xip, advanced pitching analytics, etc....
Ever track a 1st 5 inning betting model?
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#8
Originally posted by MinnesotaFats
LT
is your model based primarily on the strength of the starting pitching matchup? I see alot regarding Xip, advanced pitching analytics, etc....
Ever track a 1st 5 inning betting model?
Yes I have made 5-inning plays this year, model is quite involved. I have xIP for starting pitchers and that figure impacts the team's bullpen rating for the game. There are also offensive ratings, ballpark factors and umpires (after first game of each series) to name a few. Yes, starting pitching is the most important component but it is far from the only component.