MLB - Friday, 8/24/18

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Friday, 8/24/18
    1 MLB Play Friday

    Orioles +164 (Heritage)


    YTD: 358-383-15, +5.01
  • Sam Odom
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-30-05
    • 58063

    #2
    LT , good job of hanging in there (+5.01)
    Comment
    • jjgold
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-20-05
      • 388179

      #3
      Steady

      I can’t wait to lecture this guy in person
      Comment
      • Igor_1965
        SBR MVP
        • 04-18-15
        • 2632

        #4
        Orioles, worst team in baseball. This looks good.
        Comment
        • LT Profits
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-27-06
          • 90963

          #5
          Originally posted by Igor_1965
          Orioles, worst team in baseball. This looks good.
          I posted a while ago about expected Cobb positive regression. It has panned out, look how he has done since I posted it. And there is still room for more as his ERA - xFIP is still +0.65.
          Comment
          • mpaschal34
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-04-13
            • 12087

            #6
            If you believe in Cobb, then the under is probably a good play.
            Comment
            • MinnesotaFats
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-18-10
              • 14758

              #7
              LT

              is your model based primarily on the strength of the starting pitching matchup? I see alot regarding Xip, advanced pitching analytics, etc....

              Ever track a 1st 5 inning betting model?
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #8
                Originally posted by MinnesotaFats
                LT

                is your model based primarily on the strength of the starting pitching matchup? I see alot regarding Xip, advanced pitching analytics, etc....

                Ever track a 1st 5 inning betting model?
                Yes I have made 5-inning plays this year, model is quite involved. I have xIP for starting pitchers and that figure impacts the team's bullpen rating for the game. There are also offensive ratings, ballpark factors and umpires (after first game of each series) to name a few. Yes, starting pitching is the most important component but it is far from the only component.
                Comment
                • LT Profits
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-27-06
                  • 90963

                  #9
                  1 MLB Addition

                  2 MLB Plays Friday

                  Orioles +164 (Heritage)
                  Twins +117 (Bookmaker)
                  Comment
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