Mr. Crumbs Leans for Tuesday June 30, 2009

[wangichu]

alright... final card:

TOR ML +110 (2 units)
PIT ML +115 (2 units)

BAL ML +105 (1 unit)
TEX ML -110 (1 unit)

i like texas to win tonight, but it's also like a small hedge because i have the angels to win the series, so either way i sit out tomorrow's game in that series.

[socrates01]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...ystem-mlb.html

Thanks man. I appreciate it.

[sweetjones55]

CK, What do you think about your Athletics and Gio Gonzalez tonight? A's opened up at +107 and with 63% on Detroit the A's are now at -105, heavy RLM.

[Tennispro]

Hi all,,, back from a long trip, here are my plays for tonight i like Cubs and Rays GL.

[MILEHIGHMONSTERS]

Panekkkk I'm on that LAA/TEX under too. I got it at 10 last night for +105 though. Not happy to see it up to 10.5 if that's accurate, but happy to have the +105.

I'm also on the Mets, Braves, and Tigers tonight.

Good luck all!

[ram1502]

Yanks RL, Royals, Marlins, Angels, and Astros for me. GL ALL

[Dexter]

Tue 6/30-

(2x) dbacks -130 (A3)

(1x) giants +1.5/-130 (A2)

(2x) under cards 7 (A5)

(3x) under twins 9 (A5)

[jellobiafra]

Forgot I'm on ARZ too.... mentioned it in last night's thread.

Guys... PHI/ATL total tomorrow opened at 8. This game is not going over 5.

[The_Kid]

Why is Atlanta sacrificing the runners over with 0 out and their pitcher on deck?

[maddogmadden86]

haren is so nasty if u could get 3 runs every game he would probably be undeafeted lol

[sportsguy04]

Anybody like the Rockies/Dodgers Under 8.5 and Padres/Astros under 8?

[Panekkkk]

I am on the Phillies but am seriously considering hedging my bet. Phillies absolutely dominate the Braves on the road; however, on the flipside, Lowe dominates the Phills and the Braves hitters dominate Blanton.

If any of you are familiar with Base_Runs sabermetrics, simulating this game using historical hitter data gives about 4.2 runs for the Braves off Blanton in 6 innings and only 1.8 runs for the Phillies off Lowe in 6 innings. I am too lazy to include mid-relief pitching and closers so keep that in mind.

Phillies are the better road team, are coming off two solid road victories, and are about due to start swinging. Lowe has been terrible his last 3 starts but last 3 trends tend to forget about regression to the mean. Lowe is not a 2.83 WHIP pitcher. He is a career 1.27 WHIP pitcher who is more than due to correct a trend. Might be this game or next. I hope it's next

baseball-reference.com OR
dailybaseballdata.com gives good team lineup vs. pitcher data

As an aside, I like the LAA/TEX game to go under 10.5. Hook buy to 11 might add extra insurance.

Guess those numbers weren't too far off 3-2 Braves after 6.

[The_Kid]

haren is so nasty if u could get 3 runs every game he would probably be undeafeted lol

I know! It sucks watching him pitch great game after game especially when he doesn't get a win for your fantasy team! He should be up for the Cy Young if he got just a little bit more run support.

[Dexter]

Tue 6/30-

(2x) dbacks -130 (A3)

(1x) giants +1.5/-130 (A2)

(2x) under cards 7 (A5)

(3x) under twins 9 (A5)

typo alert!!! you guys know i play all my A3's for 3x

and you also know that in the land of sbr, where 60% of people are full of shit - i pride myself on honesty. gimme that 1 extra unit!!

[ragiche]

I haven't played any single games tonight only parlays.

3 team parlay for $25

Laa ML

Flo ML

Sd RL

6 team parlay for $10

Laa ML

Flo ML

Sd RL

Chc RL

Nym RL

Tb RL


Now it's time for me to play my one and only play for tonight:

Padres RL (10x) My pick of the day.

[Dexter]

what has gotten into carpenter? that over is toast.

[The_Kid]

Is anyone near Baltimore? Is the rain coming down hard or will the game resume?

[maddogmadden86]

over DEx? didnt that get hit?

[maddogmadden86]

the over in teh tigers A's game looking pretty nice already

[jellobiafra]

I just loaded up on that PHI/ATL under 8 for tomorrow. Got it at -105. I don't expect it to stay there, but who knows. All that matters to me is that I love this play. Probably my only wager tomorrow. And that's the last I'm gonna mention it so as not to jinx.

[maddogmadden86]

i'm starting to like the giants, they are scrappy not to mention lincecum is probably my fav pitcher to watch

[Flight]

I just loaded up

Good luck Jello I am on it for 2 units as well. Got it at +100 too!

[jellobiafra]

Good luck Jello I am on it for 2 units as well. Got it at +100 too!

Good luck to us. I said last night the Braves win tonight, the Phillies win 3-1 tomorrow, and then game 3 is a toss up.

[Dexter]

Wed 7/1-

(1x) nationals +1.5/-150 (A2)

(2x) rays -130 - shields has a career 3.07/.98 vs the jays. 2 teams going in opposite directions.

(3x) under redsox 9 (A5)

(1x) a's +1.5/-150 (A2)

[Dexter]

over DEx? didnt that get hit?

under i meant...

[Dexter]

smoltz only with 52 pitches tonight - maybe hes hurt again.

i wish boston would bring up buccholz already. that kid is ready to be an ace...

[jellobiafra]

I don't think he was hurt. There was a pretty long delay between the 4th and 5th innings. They didn't send him back out afterwards....wisely. He was great tonight.

[oda11]

Just outta curiosity, how many MLB wagers do you guys think a person should make per day? How many is ideal? Whenever I make more than 6 or 7 wagers I always lose haha. But when it's 3-5 it's a lot better. Thanks!

[jellobiafra]

Just outta curiosity, how many MLB wagers do you guys think a person should make per day? How many is ideal? Whenever I make more than 6 or 7 wagers I always lose haha. But when it's 3-5 it's a lot better. Thanks!

I don't know if there's a right or wrong answer to this one. I've done it all different ways - monster cards everyday and only 1 or 2 bets every day. I've had moderate success for stretches playing a bunch of games a day....then an epic meltdown. So I went to 1 or 2 a day and was actually very successful. It got to be boring for me though and I didn't have the discipline to stick to what I was doing successfully. Now I'm back to somewhere in between. And I've been treading water ever since I stopped playing the 1 or 2 a day. I've actually been convincing myself to get back to what I was doing a few weeks ago when it was 1 play a day and I was hitting 65% or so. I'm going to try to start that tomorrow with the one play I mentioned earlier - PHI/ATL under 8.

[sportsguy04]

Mr. Cain and the Giants tommorow +124 .

Giants to sweep Cards? I hope and believe so.

[oda11]

I see.... Thanks for the reply Jello! I problie wont be able to do 1 play a day haha, maybe 3 - 4 a day! GL tmr!