My math-based software picks.

BTTNext · 06-28-09, 01:35 AM

what's the record so far in the season bru?

curious · 06-28-09, 02:11 AM

What algorithms do you use?

How do you determine value? What algorithms do you use?

chubber911 · 06-28-09, 11:49 AM

So far, my program has gone 44-38 for +11.06 units.

I've noticed on the weekend, it has been suggesting a lot more underdog picks than during the week. My best estimate is that a lot of squares are betting on the weekend, and really like to pick win% favourites, which skews the lines in a way that makes the underdog picks the more profitable plays on weekends.

The unit size recommendation uses the half- kelly criterion formula and relies on a teams likelihood to win the bet, adjusted by the odds laid, to quantify how strong the wager is, and thus how much you should be willing to play.

Other information I need to input include the teams records, and home/away records. I don't input the starting pitchers wins/losses, rather I input the teams records when those pitchers start the game (ie. Home pitcher may have a record of 6-3, but the team's record when he starts is 6-7 because of a weak bullpen, so this is in the information I use). I then enter the teams average runs per game over the last 10 starts, and then the average team ERA over the last 20 starts (to account for 4 full pitching rotations). Then I pit the 2 teams against each other in a simulator to get a percentage of how often each team wins. This % is multiplied by the money line odds to see which team would be a strong bet. The software then recommends a pick, and how many units to put on the pick. When it recommends <1 unit on the pick for the game, this means there isn't enough value for the bet.

Every pick I make that is only 1* unit is a marginal bet, and may actually be incorrect if the software's prediction of the winner is off by 2 or 3%. I still make these picks, however, because I want to play test this software and plot out how the 1* unit wagers are fairing.

EDIT: There is no filtering capability of this software, but doing so would most likely increase your ROI. I wish there was a way to quantify an injury for this.

mcbaseball10 · 06-28-09, 11:56 AM

Always nice to see somebody come to this forum and add a new approach to gambling! Wish you the best of luck. Hope your system can prove to be successful over the long term.

Bogart45 · 06-28-09, 01:15 PM

sounds interesting. gl.

HoulihansTX · 06-28-09, 02:59 PM

If it makes money it works... lets see you keep it up over the long haul.

chubber911 · 06-28-09, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by chubber911

Picks for June 28:

Angels *4 (+117)
Orioles *3 (-136)
Cubs *2 (-103)
Red Sox *2 (+105)
Rockies *2 (+114)
Phillies *2 (+113)
Mets *1 (+118)
Pirates *1 (+142)
Marlins *1 (+142)
Astros *1 (+126)
Twins *1 (+122)
Mariners *1 (+169)
Rangers *1 (-155)

5-8 [L 1.3 units]

Baltimore and Boston were real disappointments. Losses were kept to a minimum though, thanks to the Angels pulling through and the odds paid for the other 4 wins. I'm going to run it as is for a week or so, and then I'll see if I want to make an adjustment as to how strict the conditions need to be before the program will suggest making a bet.

chubber911 · 06-29-09, 12:36 AM

Picks for June 29:

Pirates *3 (+100)
Dodgers *3 (-115)
Tigers *2 (-122)
Padres *1 (+132)
Mets *1 (+120)
Red Sox *1 (-155)
Angels *1 (+118)

If the lines adjust, there may be some picks on other games, but my software couldn't find any more good bets with the current money lines.

chubber911 · 06-29-09, 10:57 AM

More picks for June 29:

Marlins *1 (-175)
White Sox *2 (+105)

The lines for these games improved enough that my program is now recommending plays.

losturmarbles · 06-29-09, 05:52 PM

you look like a math dude
i hope your math program implodes tonight.

Pirates *3 (+100) against you
Dodgers *3 (-115) against you
Tigers *2 (-122) against you
Padres *1 (+132) with you
Mets *1 (+120) against you
Red Sox *1 (-155) not playin
Angels *1 (+118) not playin
Marlins *1 (-175) against you
White Sox *2 (+105) against you

here's to 1-6

gl bro

btw how did the white sox go from no play to 2*, there hasnt been that much movement on the line.

HighVoltage · 06-29-09, 07:05 PM

For 6/28, you went 3-3 for +1.08 units on your plays rated *2 and up. As you stated yourself, the *1 are iffy. GL with your system. I'll be watching.

chubber911 · 06-30-09, 01:29 AM

I know my system isn't perfect, and I know changes are going to happen, however I don't want to make changes with less than 1 week of plays since this is a long term activity.

Regarding the White Sox, original line I had available for them was -109. With this line, my program suggested a <1 unit bet. When I checked again later, I was able to get +105. With this new line, my program suggested a >2 unit bet. Close to 3, actually, but I'm rounding down for now.

Few more minutes, I'll post results from 29 and get working on June 30.

chubber911 · 06-30-09, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by chubber911

Picks for June 29:

Pirates *3 (+100)
Dodgers *3 (-115)
Tigers *2 (-122)
Padres *1 (+132)
Mets *1 (+120)
Red Sox *1 (-155)
Angels *1 (+118)

Marlins *1 (-175)
White Sox *2 (+105)

5-4 [W 0.84 units]

Total 10-12 [L 0.46 units]

chubber911 · 06-30-09, 02:45 AM

I thought I was making some mistakes with the numbers, but wow, this looks like it's going to be a big day for the underdogs!

Picks for June 30:

White Sox *4 (+182)
Blue Jays *4 (+119)
Pirates *3 (+124)
Reds *3 (+128)
Phillies *2 (+118)
Rockies *2 (+160)
Royals *2 (+124)
Brewers *1 (+125)
Giants *1 (+180)
Tigers *1 (-115)

themajormt · 06-30-09, 07:57 AM

Keep up the work man, dont let anyone criticize your work... I am working on something similar for totals but have hit a wall...

chubber911 · 07-01-09, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by chubber911

Picks for June 30:

White Sox *4 (+182)
Blue Jays *4 (+119)
Pirates *3 (+124)
Reds *3 (+128)
Phillies *2 (+118)
Rockies *2 (+160)
Royals *2 (+124)
Brewers *1 (+125)
Giants *1 (+180)
Tigers *1 (-115)

6-4 [W 7.25 units]

Total 16-16 [W 6.79 units]

What a day!

chubber911 · 07-01-09, 01:29 AM

Happy Canada Day!

Picks for July 1:

Blue Jays *4 (+115)
Giants *3 (+124)
Marlins *2 (-165)
Mets *1 (+198)
Rockies *1 (+135)
Phillies *1 (-104)
Orioles *1 (+136)
Yankees *1 (-165)

themajormt · 07-01-09, 09:23 AM

I am with you on Toronto, Rocks... have the other side with the BoSox... Any info on Detroit? Looks like my top play as of now..

chubber911 · 07-01-09, 11:37 AM

Last night I was getting -123 to play Detroit, and my software was recommending a no wager. I just ran it again with the new money line (-117). My software now suggests a 1.18 unit play, so I'm going to put *1 on Detroit today.

July 1:

Detroit *1 (-117)

chubber911 · 07-01-09, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by chubber911

Picks for July 1:

Blue Jays *4 (+115)
Giants *3 (+124)
Marlins *2 (-165)
Mets *1 (+198)
Rockies *1 (+135)
Phillies *1 (-104)
Orioles *1 (+136)
Yankees *1 (-165)
Detroit *1 (-117)

4-5 [W 2.37 units]

Total 20-21 [W 9.16 units]

Great game for Toronto and Romero on Canada Day.

Thanks for following my thread, tomorrow's picks to come soon!

dreamjob · 07-01-09, 11:36 PM

Good job. I gotta keep my eye on this thread.

chubber911 · 07-02-09, 01:15 AM

Pick for July 2:

Phillies *3 (+130)
Brewers *2 (+136)
Reds *1 (-133)
Padres *1 (+109)
Mariners *1 (+270)
Pirates *1 (-138)

HighVoltage · 07-02-09, 01:43 AM

I have been keeping track of your plays, and here is the breakdown:

2+ units: (10-10, +7.54 units)
1 unit: (10-11, +1.14 units)

The one-unit plays may not be worth the risk. But, it is still very early in your trial. I wish you continued success.

chubber911 · 07-02-09, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by HighVoltage

I have been keeping track of your plays, and here is the breakdown:

2+ units: (10-10, +7.54 units)
1 unit: (10-11, +1.14 units)

The one-unit plays may not be worth the risk. But, it is still very early in your trial. I wish you continued success.

Thanks for the support!

I've done a bit of filtering, but haven't changed the software yet. I made a cutoff of 1.26 units for the minimum to make a bet. 1.26-1.99 is still 1 unit, and 1.00-1.25 is no bet. Reason I did this was I noticed just how volatile the low unit recommendations were. If the predicted winning %s of both teams were to go up or down by even 1%, it could change the situation to a no play. Since I'm highly doubtful that I can be accurate to within 1% when predicting a winner, I think it may be better to cut these bets for now.

chubber911 · 07-03-09, 12:00 AM

Originally posted by chubber911

Pick for July 2:

Phillies *3 (+130)
Brewers *2 (+136)
Reds *1 (-133)
Padres *1 (+109)
Mariners *1 (+270)
Pirates *1 (-138)

2-4 [L 3.68 units]

Total 22-25 [W 5.48 units]

July 3's picks will be up in the afternoon.

junkman773 · 07-03-09, 11:19 AM

Looks good BOL

chubber911 · 07-03-09, 11:39 AM

Picks for July 3:

Giants *4 (-112)
Braves *3 (-121)
Brewers *2 (+158)
D-Backs *2 (+120)
Red Sox *2 (-115)
Rangers *2 (+129)
White Sox *2 (+138)
Mets *1 (+144)
Blue Jays *1 (+168)
Athletics *1 (+117)

chubber911 · 07-04-09, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by chubber911

Picks for July 3:

Giants *4 (-112)
Braves *3 (-121)
Brewers *2 (+158)
D-Backs *2 (+120)
Red Sox *2 (-115)
Rangers *2 (+129)
White Sox *2 (+138)
Mets *1 (+144)
Blue Jays *1 (+168)
Athletics *1 (+117)

What a blow-out for the Giants!

4-6 [W 3.04 units]

Total 26-31 [W 8.52 units]

chubber911 · 07-04-09, 10:32 AM

Here are my picks for the early afternoon games. All the late afternoon and evening games will be done in a few hours.

Picks for July 4:

Braves *3 (-109)
Toronto *2 (-112)
Brewers *1 (+147)
Cardinals *1 (+113)
Mariners *1 (+200)

Keep in mind, if I was getting a straight wager, I would definitely pick Boston to beat Seattle today. But, with the odds on the money line, Boston has to win today more than ~69% of the time in order to be a profitable bet, and I just don't see them doing that. This is why I put a wager on Seattle. Good value for the underdog. Sorry if this concept seems standard to you, I just thought I'd explain a little bit for all the less experienced bettors who may be reading my thread today.

Thanks for watching.

HighVoltage · 07-04-09, 11:44 AM

Your *2's and up are +8.58 units. The *1's are flat.

I'm with you on the *2's and up.

chubber911 · 07-04-09, 01:24 PM

Thanks for keeping the extra stats for me.

Rest of today's picks coming shortly.

chubber911 · 07-04-09, 01:51 PM

Rest of today's games analyzed.

Picks for July 4:

Angels *4 (-145)
Tigers *2 (+124)
Mets *1 (+129)
Indians *1 (-108)

woodman663 · 07-04-09, 02:05 PM

Ah good to see your system being on the Angels and Tigers as I'm on them as well.

Your system looking good so far, very interesting.

chubber911 · 07-04-09, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by chubber911

Picks for July 4:

Angels *4 (-145)
Braves *3 (-109)
Toronto *2 (-112)
Tigers *2 (+124)
Brewers *1 (+147)
Cardinals *1 (+113)
Mariners *1 (+200)
Mets *1 (+129)
Indians *1 (-108)

4-5 [L 1.04 units]

Total 30-36 [W 7.48 units]