Mr. Crumbs Leans for Thursday 6/18/09

[cocknocker]

Ah yes for today's action I like the

Tigers-110 HEAVY
Padres-110 HEAVY
Twins/Pirates over 8.5 +100 Crumbs Play of the Day


It was kind of tough coming up with a play as my formula tightened the screws on certain plays on games that I wanted to bet before I did the homework. What I find peculiar about the yeild as that the two teams with the longest losing streaks were the ones that made the passing grade. Boston also made the grade, but I can't go against the Marlins in a sweep situation. The Diamond Backs also made the grade but the play is too public, and I can't line up with all of the idiots..I don't play road favorites of over -130. The D-Backs line stands at -145 now.


WHIP

DET 1.25 overall 1.41 last three starts
STL 1.32 overall 1.76 last three starts

Advantage Detroit

Power ranking

DET-116
STL+116

Line

DET+100
STL-108

Advantage Detroit HEAVY. With only 53% of bettors on their side and with the close ratio, the Tigers controlled the line overnight and made the line to from +100 to -110 apiece for both sides. That is a HUGE movement.

Slugging % last 3 games

DET .384
STL .438

Advantage Red Birds

Bullpen WHIP Last 3

DET 1.782
STL 0.806

Advantage Red Birds

My pick: Tigers-110. With 4 losses coming into today, the Tigers will look to get back into the win column as they have too much talent to continue losing games. Piniero is a mediocre pitcher at best, and with Granderson suddenly hot, I will take my chances with the steam, as the linemakers wouldn't make it harder to take Detroit for no reason.
**************************************

WHIP

SEA 2.33, last 3 games 2.33
SDG 1.25, last 3 games 1.44

Advantage Padres HEAVY

Power rankings

SEA +107
SDG-107

Line

SEA+104
SDG-112

Advantage PUSH Seattle has the slight higher amount of bettors on their side (53-47%) and the line for the most part has stayed where it was Seattle+100/Padres-110. The game is likely a pick em.

Slugging% last 3 games

SEA .280
SDG .222

Advantage Seattle, but truth be told, both of these numbers are very low and there is no advantage in that

Bullpen WHIP Last 3 games

SEA 1.148
SDG 0.870

Advantage Padres

My pick: Padres. Morrow's pitch count will be limited to 75-80 pitches in this game, so the Seattle bullpen looks to get plenty of work, and that is not a good thing. Wth 24k's and 18 walks, this guy is horrid and will cure the ills that the Padres bats have. Geer is not that much better, but he does have some success on the major league level. His numbers are inlated due to a bad start against the Angels hot bats to the tune of 7 earned and 9 hits over 5 2/3 innings to go along with 1 walk and 5 strikeouts. He gave up 4 dingers as well. Petco Park is a home run killing park though so he shouldn't have as many bombs in this one! Padres get off the shnide today!

[TodaysAction]

CK and his followers,

Since this thread is about sharing, I thought I'd drop a little in here. As you know, there is a M.L.B. contest going on here in the contest section. There is one person, Bbyhill, who has amassed 30.88 positive units from his 23 (16-6-1) selections in the thread. The guy is sizzling hot and though others might be interested in knowing that. If this offended anyone, for it's not a "selection" I do apologize.

[Dexter]

Thur-

over mets 10.5 - berken has a 8.59/1.70in his last 3, and i simply dont trust livan in camden yards.
redsox -1.5/-110 (Autobet -3x) A3
under dbacks 8 (Autobet - 3x) A5

[Panekkkk]

Only 56% of public on Zona, Even at -138 it's worth a look

Arizona -138
The snakes are coming off an emotional win in which they rang up 12 runs, 6 off of Greinke no less, before punishing the Royals bullpen. There are no denying Haren's stats and he is 7-0 in interleague play, hoping to make it 8 straight. Though the snakes gave him no run support to start the season, they are average 6+ runs/game over Haren's last 6 starts or so. Both Haren and Hochevar are coming off complete games. A 1st round draft pick in 2006, Hochevar has looked impressive his last few outings but there's no way the edge goes to him. Add to that, the -1.5 RL for the Snakes is only +124...

CK, I'm not sure last 3 games bullpen WHIP is that revealing a stat. Many times you are looking only at 5 IP. If one pitcher implodes for one inning the bullpen WHIP over 3 will be terrible but that in no way reflects the rest of the bullpen, plus he will likely not pitch again for some time. I think you should extend it to 5 and take into account innings pitched

[Dexter]

CK and his followers,

Since this thread is about sharing, I thought I'd drop a little in here. As you know, there is a M.L.B. contest going on here in the contest section. There is one person, Bbyhill, who has amassed 30.88 positive units from his 23 (16-6-1) selections in the thread. The guy is sizzling hot and though others might be interested in knowing that. If this offended anyone, for it's not a "selection" I do apologize.

wow....well, the beauty of the tournament that i created along with suicidekings (the one i got eliminated from in rd 1 is that you have PLENTY of time to make a comeback. i saw several people give up in round 1 waaay too early.

stick to your game, and i bet you'll be right there TA.

anyway - working from home today, but i think i may work a little harder on belmont and day baseball

[TodaysAction]

wow....well, the beauty of the tournament that i created along with suicidekings (the one i got eliminated from in rd 1 is that you have PLENTY of time to make a comeback. i saw several people give up in round 1 waaay too early.

stick to your game, and i bet you'll be right there TA.

anyway - working from home today, but i think i may work a little harder on belmont and day baseball

Trust me Dexter, there is no towel being tossed in nor even considered. All I wanted to do was let others in here of his success so they could cash from it.

Hope you cash more from BEL than what you wager. Next week, I'm thinking of giving your states track a crack. If nothing else, they will be good ones to avoid for my success rate (win percentage) there is a woeful 15%.

[hockeytown71]

Tailing CK...
And parlaying Yanks RL -160/Phi ml -160 = 1.6 units

Good Luck!!!

[cocknocker]

Only 56% of public on Zona, Even at -138 it's worth a look

Arizona -138
The snakes are coming off an emotional win in which they rang up 12 runs, 6 off of Greinke no less, before punishing the Royals bullpen. There are no denying Haren's stats and he is 7-0 in interleague play, hoping to make it 8 straight. Though the snakes gave him no run support to start the season, they are average 6+ runs/game over Haren's last 6 starts or so. Both Haren and Hochevar are coming off complete games. A 1st round draft pick in 2006, Hochevar has looked impressive his last few outings but there's no way the edge goes to him. Add to that, the -1.5 RL for the Snakes is only +124...

CK, I'm not sure last 3 games bullpen WHIP is that revealing a stat. Many times you are looking only at 5 IP. If one pitcher implodes for one inning the bullpen WHIP over 3 will be terrible but that in no way reflects the rest of the bullpen, plus he will likely not pitch again for some time. I think you should extend it to 5 and take into account innings pitched

Right but at least I know that there's a more current liability in their bullpen by doing it over the last 3 games. Baseball is a game of threes. Three strikes, three outs, three games in a series usually. I want to keep things in perspective over the last 3 games only because of this. I don't want to go back two series researching a bullpen. I want everything as current as possible

[xxdjstriderxx]

on these also. gl ck.

[cocknocker]

Total of the day:

With a measeley 29% of bettors on the over, the line went up from 8 to 8.5 on the Twins/Pirates game, going against the grain of 71% of bettos for the under. That's a little hard to ignore, so I am adding the over in that game as well.

Twins/Pirates over 8.5 +100 Crumbs Play of the Day

[HoulihansTX]

Ah yes for today's action I like the


Padres-110 HEAVY




WHIP

SEA 2.33, last 3 games 2.33
SDG 1.25, last 3 games 1.44

Advantage Padres HEAVY

Power rankings

SEA +107
SDG-107

Line

SEA+104
SDG-112

Advantage PUSH Seattle has the slight higher amount of bettors on their side (53-47%) and the line for the most part has stayed where it was Seattle+100/Padres-110. The game is likely a pick em.

Slugging% last 3 games

SEA .280
SDG .222

Advantage Seattle, but truth be told, both of these numbers are very low and there is no advantage in that

Bullpen WHIP Last 3 games

SEA 1.148
SDG 0.870

Advantage Padres

My pick: Padres. Morrow's pitch count will be limited to 75-80 pitches in this game, so the Seattle bullpen looks to get plenty of work, and that is not a good thing. Wth 24k's and 18 walks, this guy is horrid and will cure the ills that the Padres bats have. Geer is not that much better, but he does have some success on the major league level. His numbers are inlated due to a bad start against the Angels hot bats to the tune of 7 earned and 9 hits over 5 2/3 innings to go along with 1 walk and 5 strikeouts. He gave up 4 dingers as well. Petco Park is a home run killing park though so he shouldn't have as many bombs in this one! Padres get off the shnide today!

Wow I was thinking the same shit, as I added this to my plays last night. Thank you for articulating the reasoning for the play to the forum. Lets get dough.

[MrMonkey]

Anyone liking the Pirates +150! Mauer not in lineup, more production from middle of order than Twins of late! Hoping Duke is on and bullpen not bad! Duke better win probability and good GB/FB Ratio! 15 minutes to go! Thanks!

[homerbush]

Anyone liking the Pirates +150! Mauer not in lineup, more production from middle of order than Twins of late! Hoping Duke is on and bullpen not bad! Duke better win probability and good GB/FB Ratio! 15 minutes to go! Thanks!

Value wise its the right play.

[Panekkkk]

Anyone liking the Pirates +150! Mauer not in lineup, more production from middle of order than Twins of late! Hoping Duke is on and bullpen not bad! Duke better win probability and good GB/FB Ratio! 15 minutes to go! Thanks!

I was leaning towards the Pirates. Great value as well. The pitching matchup is a wash IMO, maybe with slight edge to Blackburn at home. But with Mauer out, the hitting edge and bullpen WHIP goes to the Pirates.

[MrMonkey]

Thanks guys! Went with Pitt. at +150 for half unit! Nothing major just have to try capping myself! See how it goes?

[ragiche]

Booked plays for me today.

Braves RL (6x) My Pick.

Padres RL (10x) Tailing CK.

Tigers ML (10x) Tailing CK.

Pit/Min Over 8 (6x) Tailing CK.

GL today guys.

[peterpan19]

puh...normally I would be on the Duke...but somehow I couldnt pull the trigger today...good thing I didnt at least so far...

[MrMonkey]

Thanks guys! Went with Pitt. at +150 for half unit! Nothing major just have to try capping myself! See how it goes?

Great capping by the Monkey Might be best I'll be leaving for work before the game ends! Last game I tried in detail analysis, I was on wrong end of 7-0 game!

[Jimbo42]

I played Minnesota today... I always play a team that lost the previous game as a -200 or bigger fav if playing the same team again...

Minnesota ML
Minnesota RL


GL

Yankees juice too much to play for me...

[Jimbo42]

CK,

Your San Diego play looks good to me... I love playing home favorites that are getting no love... when they are only getting 20% of the play... it is usually niiice! That means the only one who likes SD as a fav is the man who MADE the line!

[rawkstarr]

Total of the day:

With a measeley 29% of bettors on the over, the line went up from 8 to 8.5 on the Twins/Pirates game, going against the grain of 71% of bettos for the under. That's a little hard to ignore, so I am adding the over in that game as well.

Twins/Pirates over 8.5 +100 Crumbs Play of the Day

I like the over on this as well CK. Shoudl have followed your Toronto play yesterday

[peterpan19]

bases loaded with no outs for MIN and only 1 run scored....

7 more runs and the total hits...

[ragiche]

You're right pete,but don't worry we still have 5 more innings left then after that we will end up winners.Prediction 8-4 twinkies.

[xxdjstriderxx]

8-4 twins sounds good.

[ebbearsfb1]

lol 8-4?? i wish the pirates used up all there runs last night lol

[ragiche]

It's sure sounds good strider,just to hype up a little bit,the twinkies will score 2 in the 5th,1 in the 6th , 3 in the 7th.then the buccos will score 2 in the 6th and 1 run each in the 8tth and 9th inning. A very wild guess.

[peterpan19]

hell I say the over is toast...no way they score 7 more runs here today...
onto the SD/SEA game

[cocknocker]

Over is toast. The Twins could have helped things along a bit but they didn't get the job done when they had the Pirates on the ropes with the bases loaded and no outs

[peterpan19]

anyone know how long the NYY-WAS game is delayed today ?

[Panekkkk]

Over is toast. The Twins could have helped things along a bit but they didn't get the job done when they had the Pirates on the ropes with the bases loaded and no outs

Don't count it out yet. Duke up to 100 pitches already. Min might rip it open. With even a few runs by Pitt this could go over late.

[Panekkkk]

Damn, Rollins jacks a 2-run HR. Typical rookie mistake. 2-outs, no one on, and you walk Josh Blanton the pitcher... Just pitch to him. Throw it right down the middle. Chances are you will get him out. Didn't bet on the Jays but wouldn't mind seeing my home squad sweep the Phils on the road

[DeeWizzle]

With 90% on Tb side and 80% Tb ml The line moved in the opposite direction. And with 84% on the over it hasnt move either?

[peterpan19]

hell Zambrano is perfect this year in the 2nd Inning and now the bases are loaded...but Floyd up...lets get the K

edit: and he did...good job

[peterpan19]

but blackburn only 70 pitches so far...

[djpremier36]

Already rolled with CWS +150 and PIT/MIN under 8.5

Other games...

COL/TB under 5.5 1st 5 -123...Bats will cool down early

BAL -120...Fading Livan and love the line movement

DET+112...Cards yet face to Porcello, Pineiro has lost 7 of 8

GL everybody!