Mr. Crumbs Paper Bag Plays Monday 6/8/09

[cocknocker]

Well for today's goodies, I have to say that it took quite a while for me to put together some plays on such a limites schedule, but I found some steam and decided to follow it. I will expand on my plays after another cupful.

Florida-125 HEAVY All the advantages, Randy can be faded now
Pirates+125 HEAVY Chicken dinners look tasty don't they?
Detroit+110 Game 1 (Galarraga)False Favorite
A's-135 (They better win. I hate to pay this much vigorish)

[suicidekings]

Well for today's goodies, I have to say that it took quite a while for me to put together some plays on such a limites schedule, but I found some steam and decided to follow it. I will expand on my plays after another cupful.

Florida-125 HEAVY All the advantages, Randy can be faded now
Pirates+125 HEAVY Chicken dinners look tasty don't they?
Detroit+110 Game 1 (Galarraga)False Favorite
A's-135 (They better win. I hate to pay this much vigorish)

In my experience, when key pitchers (MLB) and goalies (NHL) hit significant milestones for wins, they absolutely tank for the next few games. Florida is an excellent call tomorrow.

[spal2811]

ck,

where do you come up with your power rankings? you may have answered this before but i havent been able to find it.

thanks

also, any thoughts on the rays tomorrow.

[suicidekings]

With you on FLO & PIT. Also,

DET @ CWS (Game 2 - Bonderman v. Contreras) - Over 10 (+101)
- Bonderman hasn't pitched in a year, and his velocity hasn't returned after surgery. Contreras is a train-wreck...

ARI (+160) @ SD (my biggest play of the day)
- Public heavily on Peavy, but the line is showing RLM. Garland has only one career start vs SD and pitched very well. Peavy is coming off a respiratory problem that forced him to leave his last game after one inning and was supposed to start today, but the start got pushed back to give him more time to recover.

[Jimbo42]

I have absolutely no plays today.... nothing falls in for me.... may tail today... that could be fun... FLORIDA sounds like a smart play CK.. and I may be liking your AZ play Suicide....

[jellobiafra]

As discussed last night, I'm with in total agreement with CK on PIT +130 and OAK -134.

(I actually did that hedge bet with about 3/5 on OAK -134 and 2/5 on the run line +160 to get about a +110 payout with a 2 run win and a push with a 1 run win.)


I don't have any unders today. I was given some good advice lately that if I'm not really liking any on the board then don't force one. Well I'm not really liking any today. If I had to pick one it would be that PIT/ATL under 8, but again.... I don't really like it that much. The stats and most trends lineup for an under, but my gut says PIT pushes this one over. So I'm rolling with just the two sides above.

Good luck everyone!

[Trixie]

Suicide -- I'm on Arizona ML big-time too. Peavy is in no shape to command that price.

[peterpan19]

you all know that I love that DUKE kid...so hell I have to play him here again...ATL is right now...so lets just say I am in too...

as for the early games...I dont trust Galarraga, but I also dont like CSW here...I think the over might be ok but since i dont play totals...

as for the other game...I really like Marquis and he should rebound from his last start against Hou and pitch better today...plus the Col bats are hot right now...but you have to wonder if STL can avoid the 4 game sweep here today...hell I might take COL for 5 Innings only...

[peterpan19]

uhh... Garland is 2-1 with a sub 1 ERA against the Padres...also take a look at Garlands numbers away from home...he is 2-2 with 2.01 ERA away from Chase Field (where he is 2-3 with a 8 plus ERA)...

that pick looks really good...might wait for the Pit game to end and then play with house money...

[jellobiafra]

Suicide -- I'm on Arizona ML big-time too. Peavy is in no shape to command that price.

What's up Trix? Good to see you in the thread man. You should post more often.

[Trixie]

Yo jello. Just sat around doing nothing, so...

You still killing that three pick contest?

[jellobiafra]

Yo jello. Just sat around doing nothing, so...

You still killing that three pick contest?

Probably lost the lead yesterday with that horrible beat in CIN. Went 1-2 instead of the 2-1 I deserved.

Oh well, those are the breaks in this thing we do...

[hoop guru]

Oakland ML
Oakland team total over 4.5 (+110 greek)
Oakland/Minnesota over 8 (10 units)-Oakland may cover the total by themselves

[waiverwire]

One problem for everyone who likes Florida - good chance of rain: http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

[jellobiafra]

Oakland ML
Oakland team total over 4.5 (+110 greek)
Oakland/Minnesota over 8 (10 units)-Oakland may cover the total by themselves

Good to see you one this one as well. Makes me like it even more.

[cocknocker]

Breakdown upcoming

[cocknocker]

WHIP

SFO 1.36
FLA 1.22

Advantage Florida

Power ranking

Giants+116
Florida-116

Line

Florida-120


Advantage Florida with 21% of bettors on their side the line has stayed steady at -120 and more


Slugging% last 3


SFO .396
FLA .295


Advantage Giants


My pick: Marlins-125 HEAVY Despite the bats not being in my favor, I had to factor in that they have already faced Cain and Lincecum, which would bring down any team's slugging%.


**************************************** ******************************

WHIP

PITT 1.13
ATL 1.46

Advantage Pittsburgh

Power ranking

PITT -101
ATL +101

Line

Atlanta -140

Advantage (PK) Although the power ranking reflects a false favorite, the public is behind the Pirates 64% to 36% and the line has stayed stiff at Atlanta-140.

Slugging% last 3 games

PITT .343
ATL .392

Advantage Atlanta

My pick: Pittsburgh+125 HEAVY The Pirates are hot, the Braves are not.

**************************************** **********************************

WHIP

DET 1.51
PALES 1.40

Advantage Pales

Power ranking

DET -149
PALES +149

Line

Pale Hose-132

Advantage Detroit as there is a false favorite, and the line will plummet with the 63% on Detroit

Slugging% last 3 games

DET .345
PALES .267

Advantage Detroit

My pick: Detroit +110

**************************************** **********************************

WHIP

MIN 1.47
OAK 1.22

Advantage Oakland

Power ranking

MIN +141
OAK -141

Line

Oakland-122

Advantage Oakland as the line has climbed up to -135 in response to the 75% of bettors on the A's

Slugging% last 3 games

MIN .291
OAK .415

Advantage Oakland

My pick: Oakland -135

I have to take my daugher to school. I will be back to color in the teams, lol!

[BeatTheJerk]

Any concerns that M.Cabrera is doubtful for this game ? I still might be on them regardless if he's in the lineup or not. As far as A Galarraga goes the odds on him are truely in our favor to throw a decent start and get a win which hasn't happen since April 26. I believe he will be a profitable pitcher in june from my perception.

[Panekkkk]

With you on FLO & PIT. Also,

DET @ CWS (Game 2 - Bonderman v. Contreras) - Over 10 (+101)
- Bonderman hasn't pitched in a year, and his velocity hasn't returned after surgery. Contreras is a train-wreck...

ARI (+160) @ SD (my biggest play of the day)
- Public heavily on Peavy, but the line is showing RLM. Garland has only one career start vs SD and pitched very well. Peavy is coming off a respiratory problem that forced him to leave his last game after one inning and was supposed to start today, but the start got pushed back to give him more time to recover.

Only thing keeping me off ARI is injury to Upton who has basically been their sparkplug in offense.

[Panekkkk]

Kawakami pitching pretty good at home...

Duke's last outing against ATL 6 ERs. So does he come back for revenge or get lit up again?

[jgbgsox]

rockies +105 marquis in his last 3 starts has an era of 2.49 and in 6 road starts this year is 4-2 with a era of 3.16 and is avg 7.1 ip and cards pitcher thompson has only 1 start this year going only 5 innings

tigers +100 tigers are 11-5 against lefties scoring over 5 runs a game and hitting 0.286 and are playing good ball during the day at 15-5 while wsox are only 8-12 during the day

pirates +125 duke has been solid this year in 5 road starts he has an era of 2.57 with a whip of 1.172 and his last 3 starts have even been more solid with an era of 2.05

bucs/braves under 8.5 -115 as i stated above duke has been solid this year and kawakami in his last 3 starts has an era of 3.65 and whip of 1.161 and in 6 home starts has an era of 3.65 with a whip of 1.189

yanks -160 also yanks rl +115 against lefties rays are 8-13 sonnanstine in 7 road starts is 1-5 with an era of 9.00 and whip of 1.909 and pettite hasn't been pitching well this year either but he owns the rays over his career with a record of 15-4 with an era of 3.85 and his team's record is 18-8 in these starts

texas -155 also texas rl +125 feldman is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with era of 3.32 and whip of 1.211 and in 4 home starts this year has an era of 2.25 and whip of 1.00

texas/blue jays under 10 -115 feldman has 8 starts this year and under has cashed in all 8 and janssen has started 3 with 2 unders and a push

a's -140 twins are 8-12 against lefties also outman is pitching well this year in 9 starts has an era of 3.14 and whip of 1.219 last 3 starts have even been better than that and in 4 home starts is 2-0 with an era of 3.22

good luck all

[KingRevolver]

I parlayed Pitt, Fla, and AZ

[TheIntegrityKid]

well atlanta is gonna whoop on some pirates tonite!!! that comeback win yesterday has me thinking atlanta is poised for a big time run

PLUS, the Pirates' players are pissed off at management about the McLouth trade. I don't see them playing hard til they get over it

and speaking of McLouth, oh boy gonna show his ex team how good he looks in a brave uniform!!!

[TheIntegrityKid]

altho i must say, i really like duke...

picked him up in a couple fantasy leagues pre season and was laughed at, but oh boy is letting his talent take over!!

[ASH0479]

....

I am liking the Florida and Pitt plays CK, gonna be tailing...

I am also leaning the Tigers Game 1, Yankees over 11 as well

Good luck everyone

[hockeytown71]

I really like all of CK's plays today and will obviously be tailing him. However, i had a few other games i wanted to see what your thoughts were. I'm also leaning on:

Rockies - I really like marquis on the road here (mabe Under 9 as well)
Texas -1.5 (+125) - I like Feldman on the bump as well as the Tex bats (obviously)
Tigers/CWS (gm 1) Under 5.5 in 1st 5 - This is more of a gut play than anything. Galarraga is due/CWS bats.

ANY THOUGHTS?

[cocknocker]

Good movement on all the games that I am playing today.

Florida is now up to -135 from -125
Pittsburgh is now +123 because Atlanta is down to -133 from -145
Detroit is now +105 Game 1 from +115 because the Pales are -115 from -132
A's are now -140 up from -122

All systems go

[jellobiafra]

Sweet. Gotta love it when you book bets the night before and the line moves in your favor the next day. Free crumbs on the win.

[JamesBrown]

Playing a parlay today...Detroit Game 1 (CK), Under 9.5

[cap10]

nice job ck jello et al

i seem to remember that marquis is lights out in day starts ;; even tho the sweep is in play i still lean that way;;
does anyone know where to find marquis numbers in day starts??

[MrMonkey]

Trying to do some research for a change! Always like your analysis CK! Also, Johnson pitching if I'm right on 3 days rest, first time in how many years? Plus possible sore shoulder from last game !

West going against boyhood idol, alittle wild at times but Giants looking at him for first time and don't take many walks! Johnson around plate so Marlins lack of patience shouldn't hurt them?

Hopefully Cantu plays and weather holds up and Johnson still pitches! SF not good as dog and Marlins have good record against lefties! Screwing around too long but must take at-133 the Fish! Good luck to all!

MrMonkey

[JustFlipACoin]

what do you guys think about the Tor Tex game? my friend has a theory that when a team comes home from a long road trip the generaly lose there first game back. Anybody familiar with a trend like this?

Thanks.

[peterpan19]

cap10
Marquis pitched in 5 day games this year...record is 4-1, 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 16K's

I think it looks really good...I think I will take COL for 5 Innings as I think he will be on fire again and the offense should score some runs too

GL

[hoop guru]

Good to see you one this one as well. Makes me like it even more.

I am glad that you are on it too. Too many are on this one as the line moved from 8 to 8.5 (-120) to 8.5 (-125) at the greek. I am not scared of the line moving.

I wagered
A's/twins over 8.5 (-120) 1200 to win 1000
A's/Twins over 8.5 (-125) 1250 to win 1000
whitesox/tigers under 9.5 880 to win 800

If I win, I am going to change my name base guru

[peterpan19]

jusflipacoin
so far TX is 2-1 when they came back from a long road trip (6 games or more) this year
last year they were 6-5
and in 2007 3-7

so here you go...I think TX has a good chance today...even if slug% is not on their side today...

GL