MLB Leans ~ Monday 6/1

[peterpan19]

I guess its time to start the daily thread...

today I like:

NYM -112 ...both offenses are not in great shape right now...but I take the workhorse here today...Hernandez can throw another 100 pitches and feel nothing...

CWS -136 ...the White Sox can hit and pitch right now...and Colon looked pretty solid in his last outings too...

thats it so far...might add a game later...

GL today

[jellobiafra]

COL/HOU under 8.5 (this one's risky, more "gut" feeling than I like to employ)



If I was playing sides I love the NYM -111.


BOL everyone!

[Jimbo42]

Booked:

St. Louis -120
St. Louis -1.5 +175

NY Yankees -1.5 +100


GL

[bradleysnyder]

i like the mets and the yanks today

[Vreston]

Anyone like the Indians today at +140?

[khaliagent]

COL/HOU under 8.5 (this one's risky, more "gut" feeling than I like to employ)



If I was playing sides I love the NYM -111.


BOL everyone!

that is the correct call jello
i may take action as well.
houston cant seem to give oswalt the run support needed to make him look good and i see that continuing and cook is comming off of a complete game shutout his last road start.
good luck

[solobass]

Anyone like the Indians today at +140?

not with sizemore out. they are a different team without him i believe. this might cash, but i think there is better value elsewhere on the board today.

[khaliagent]

huge RLM on the dbacks ....take the dbacks.
just dont see why not with all the bets going to lad.
you would think if lad are going to take it that they would not make it cheaper for you to pick lad

[peterpan19]

buckner sucks like ass...he shouldnt even be pitching in the majors if you ask me...

[cocknocker]

The Red Leggins' are coming off of being swept by their nemesis the Brewers and the St. Louis Red Birds are one of my favorite teams to wager on. Yesterday they lost a heartbreaker in San Francisco. After a late flight, they got into St. Louis and today are primed to face the Red Leggins' and Volquez, who missed his last start with some back stiffness. Of course this means that he is well rested, and I am chossing this spot to back him as the Red Birds should not be favored in this matchup. Here's why

Voloquez whip 1.29
Wellemeyer whip 1.62

Advantage Red Leggins'

Power rankings

Red Leggins'+125
Red Birds-125

Actual lines

Red Leggins'+111
Red Birds-121

Advantage Red Leggins' as the Red Birds are undervalued

Slugging% last three games

Red Leggins' .526
Red Birds .417

Advantage Red Leggins'

79% of the public are on the Red Birds

Advantage Red Leggins'

Red Leggins'+111 HEAVY

My next pick is the Rockies. Cook simply OWNS the Astros going 4-1 s/u over his last 5 against the 'Stros. It doesn't hurt that the Rockies have good value in this game. The power rankings only have the Astros as -105, however the line for this game is Astros-128, which of course means that the Astros are overvalued to begin with. The line reached -135, but now it is down to -128 with 78% of bettors on them. The Rockies have the slight advantage in hitting over the last three games with a .436 to .414 slugging %. I have to go with the Rockies, the better pitcher in this situation and the minority in this game.


Rockies+118

[ragiche]

Internet break down for me last night.But back to normal again today.And these are the plays i like for today.

Chw RL (6x) Tailing Peter. Love this pick.

Nyy -1.5+100 (6x) Tailing Jimbo. Also love this one.

Sdg ML (6x).

Phi/Sdg Over 8 (6x).

Mil ML (6x).

[ragiche]

With that info,I'll be riding the red leggins' also.Eventhough i'm already a little above my natural $3500 daily waging practices.So, What the hell,just booked it.

Cin ML (6x). Tailing CK.

[Panekkkk]

Where are you getting your power rankings CK?

[jgbgsox]

good luck with the rockies ck, looks like we are bumping heads on that play i see cook is 4-0 lifetime in his career in 7 starts with an era of 3.05 and whip of 1.286 not sure where your seeing 4-1 in his last 5 maybe im wrong. Oswalt has owned the rockies with a record of 6-1 with an era of 1.84 and whip of 1.068 in 9 career starts so looks like both these pitchers could have a nice outing as they have both pretty much owned their opponents.I'm really leaning towards the yanks now as sowers has been hit hard in his last three starts he has an era of 12.00 and whip of 2.222 and is only averaging 4.5 ip over his last three but chamberlain hasn't been lights out either but i realy don't see no reason why yanks wont crush sowers what are your thoughts about the yanks indians game? Thanks and good luck to you

[peterpan19]

pitching change for the CWS today...Floyd is pitching today...line up to -150 now

[peterpan19]

Floyd has a .69 ERA against OAK over the last 3 seasons...plus he pitched well at home with an ERA of 3.55 compared to his road ERA of 7.97...plus he had 2 solid outing in a row...all good things are 3 right...?

[cocknocker]

Where are you getting your power rankings CK?

TheSpread.com

[jgbgsox]

Floyd has a .69 ERA against OAK over the last 3 seasons...plus he pitched well at home with an ERA of 3.55 compared to his road ERA of 7.97...plus he had 2 solid outing in a row...all good things are 3 right...?

another thing is oak starter cahill is 0-3 last 3 starts with an era of 6.32 and whip of 1.469 wsox definately looks like the right play

[tbill11]

And you can't forget the fact that Oakland consistently decides to not win on a daily basis. I mean come on, they're basically the Nationals with less cool jerseys (God I hate being an A's fan).

My picks for today:
Reds +105 (tailing CK)
Rockies +116 (tailing CK)
Dodgers -1.5 (+120) - I'm very happy with this pick. Dodgers are coming home after dropping 2 of 3 to the Cubbies, and they're playing the miserable Diamondbacks. Expect a blowout

Might play some college picks later, so check out the CWS handicapping thread. Right now leaning on Louisville and Rice, but haven't really done the leg work yet.

[sportsguy04]

This is what I decided to roll on...

White Sox ML -148
White sox RL +135

New York Mets -118
New York Mets RL +135

Los Angelas Dodgers -169
Los Angelas Dodgers RL +120


PARLAY:

METS ML
Phillies RL
DODGERS RL
__________________

[cocknocker]

good luck with the rockies ck, looks like we are bumping heads on that play i see cook is 4-0 lifetime in his career in 7 starts with an era of 3.05 and whip of 1.286 not sure where your seeing 4-1 in his last 5 maybe im wrong. Oswalt has owned the rockies with a record of 6-1 with an era of 1.84 and whip of 1.068 in 9 career starts so looks like both these pitchers could have a nice outing as they have both pretty much owned their opponents.I'm really leaning towards the yanks now as sowers has been hit hard in his last three starts he has an era of 12.00 and whip of 2.222 and is only averaging 4.5 ip over his last three but chamberlain hasn't been lights out either but i realy don't see no reason why yanks wont crush sowers what are your thoughts about the yanks indians game? Thanks and good luck to you

Here's the numbers jgbgsox,

4/19/08 3-2 win
6/28/07 5-8 loss
6/6/07 8-7 win
5/13/06 2-1 win
5/7/06 5-3 win

Oswalt is a good pitcher. This one may end up being a duel. Now as far as the Yanks/Cleveland, there is only value in the Yanks runline. I don't like to bet that much juice on the road. Sowers sucks to be sure though... Here's what I came up with for that game

NYY whip 1.57
Cle whip 2.22

Advantage Yanks

Power ranking

Yanks -238
Clev +238

True line

Yanks-174
Cle +153

Advantage Cleveland as the Yankees are a tad undervalued if you can believe that

Slugging % over last three games

Yanks .557
Cle .340

Huge advantage Yanks

87% of bettors are on the Yanks and the line went up accordingly from -150 to-174 which is good movement for a majority.

Advantage Yanks

So since the Yanks hold most of the major advantages, they are the play. But as I stated, the true value for this play is to get some Yanks-1.5 -115. They obviously have the better of this matchup on paper

[jgbgsox]

looking back at that june 28 07 game he didnt get a decision in that game he actually had a nice outing 7 ip allowed 7 hits 1 run 1 earned run 1 walk and 2 strikeouts, bullpen blew that game for him maybe your talking about his teams record and i misunderstood either way yes if i played the yanks it would be rl havent made a decision if i just want to ride the stros or add yanks rl

[macadams]

Waddup board?

I start scorekeeping today, new month so I thought I might as well start the records from here. Anyone to wish me good luck?

Here are my picks for June first:

The injury ridden tribe, who will most likely be without the services of Hafner, Martinez (that did not look good for his knee) and Sizemore send a 7+ ERA fastball-reliant (I can see that NYY saliva from here, and I'm not even close to the ballpark) pitcher to the mound tonight.

There he will face a much improved Yankee lineup, and if he doesn't over-over perform, the torch will be passed to an upended bullpen that wasn't stellar to begin with and which is really reeling from the demise of Laffey and Lewis.

Sowers' walks were markedly up in May, not good when you're facing New York. NYY will still be playing with a chip one their shoulders since CLE 22 run game in the Bronx is not soon to be forgotten, plus they must feel they should have won last night's game. NYY starter Joba Chamberlain averages more strikeouts per nine than CC and a comparable ERA. Joba is very well rested.

The Yankee BP has secretly improved (admittedly of a thoroughly non-stellar baseline) to upper third quality in their league. These guys will also be heavily incentived to play as the bazaar of the non-contenders' best relievers open up pretty soon.

Next, I have picked St. Louis to beat the Cincinnatti Reds. This situation revolving around Votto in Cincy is real ugly and has a lot of people murmuring in Redsland. Clubhouse sentiments can't be high around there, and with an already anemic offensive outfield, this might not be the same Reds team which sat at 26-20.

Dickerson, Rosales, Gomes and Nix are not trending well and frankly aren't fantastic players to begin with, the few times I've watched the Reds this season there's also been that little something missing - it's no co-incidence they are 5-8 in one-run games and 1-2 in EI, no real "spark" and with Votto out against a Wellemeyer who's trending in the right direction I just don't see where the production would come from.

Wellemeyer actually has better fielding independent stats than Volques (4.3 v. 5.13) and this is a Volques that a) was hit fairly hard by STL last time and b) is coming back from back spasms and may not be able to throw exactly the kind of pitches he would like to throw. Since he one-hit the Astro's over eight he has a 2/1 go/airouts ratio, which is nowhere near his normal ratio and a total flip-flop from his season start, this is hard to interprete, but may he be favoring something dealing, not throwing "his" pitches? I'm not willing to bet he'll be perfect from pitch one upon returning.

Thirdly we have the fish and the brew. Miller (brew?, if it's too early, let me know, for puns I mean, not, obviously...) has had some decent starts, but I think he is who we thought he was. This is a feel-good Brew Crew that just became the fastest MIL group to 30 wins ever and they have real good plate discipline, which I feel will be key against Miller. This because he will leave stuff right there on the heart of the plate if he gets to points where he needs to throw strikes. Feel Suppan might more easily be let off the hook because the Marlins strike out an awful lot. Miller only once this year has taken his team beyond the sixth and the Brewer BP is better than FLA's.

So that's;

NYY ML 1 unit @ 1.68
STL ML 1 unit @ 1.84
MIL ML 1 unit @ 2.06

BOl y'all.

[cocknocker]

Sucker bet of the day belongs to the Pale Hose, who are just as bad of a team as the A's and are overvalued with respect to the line. The A's salvaged a win against the Rangers and you already know what happens when a sorry ass team wins a game. It is rare that they will only win just that one game. I have bought into this theory an it is true.

The Pale Hose are in a bad position to get the win in this matchup and of course it doesn't even look like it. I am sure that at some point during tday, Jimbo will be taking the A's

[overdose.fR]

Sucker bet of the day belongs to the Pale Hose, who are just as bad of a team as the A's and are overvalued with respect to the line. The A's salvaged a win against the Rangers and you already know what happens when a sorry ass team wins a game. It is rare that they will only win just that one game. I have bought into this theory an it is true.

The Pale Hose are in a bad position to get the win in this matchup and of course it doesn't even look like it. I am sure that at some point during tday, Jimbo will be taking the A's

I must disagree with you CK on this; here are a few numbers:

Oakland is 4-8 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Oakland is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
in last 3 games, Floys has a WHIP of 1.05, Cahill 1.47
the line movement:

Side (RL)

CWS 98%
OAK 2%

Moneyline the line moved from -135 to -145

CWS 83%
OAK 17%


regards

[Vreston]

I'm thinking about:
White Sox ML (I'm a little worried since CK is not in agreement here )
Los Angeles Dodgers but at -181 I don't know if it's worth it.

I'm taking:
San Diego Padres @ -105 (I think they can pull through)
Yankees/Indians - Over 10 @ -105
Seattle Mariners @ -125 (They should've won the other night but thanks to the bullpen they lost. Most of those relievers suck.) They'll make up for it tonight.

Any comments?

[MrSink]

i like White Sox and Dodgers today. What about cardinals?

[cocknocker]

I must disagree with you CK on this; here are a few numbers:

Oakland is 4-8 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Oakland is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
in last 3 games, Floys has a WHIP of 1.05, Cahill 1.47
the line movement:

Side (RL)

CWS 98%
OAK 2%

Moneyline the line moved from -135 to -145

CWS 83%
OAK 17%


regards

AAAight! Allow me to retort

The adjusted power rakings show

Oakland+134
Pale Hose-134

Actual line

Pale Hose-150 up from -130 with action on Colon/Floyd

Overvalue for the Pale Hose as the line should not be higher than -134.

Advantage A's

Slugging % over last 3

A's .398
Pale Hose .473

WHIP

Cahill 1.50
Floyd 1.59

Advantage A's

ML Figures

A's 15%
Pale Hose 85%

Runline

A's 18%
Pale Hose 86%

So now you have get outside of the emotions and the ease of this play on paper, and ask yourself this question. If Vegas where to to make a shit load of money off of this game, what would have to happen?

The line would have to go up for the White Sox and the A's would have to win. This is a sucker bet. I know the Pale Hose VERY well as I wager on them all of the time. They have problems with timely hits. And when that happens they go under the total and more often than not, lose.

The truth of the matter is, that Floyd hasn't faced this version of the A's hitting lineup. Likewise the Pale Hose have never faced Cahill. Floyd is NOT a -150 pitcher, and his record in games where he is favored at this price is horrid. You know that and I know that.

However converseley, with Cahill numbers at this price you get a guy who has given up 2 or less runs in 8 of his 11 starts. Take away his two bad starts against the Tigers and Rays, and then you would have an ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 1.27.

The only concern would be taking the A's for the entire game as they have a horrid bullpen and the Pale Hose do not. I would suggest to those playing his game to take the A's for the 1st half to avoid the bullpen trouble that usually follows Cahill's outstanding performances.

[ram1502]

While I respect your input and outlook on games, probably more than I should sometimes, I will have to respectfully disagree with you on this game CK. If you're going to throw out "bad starts" for starters, why can't you do that for Gavin Floyd as well? In his last 3, Floyd has 1.05 WHIP and 3.86 ERA while Cahill has 1.47 WHIP and 6.32 ERA. At the end of the day, neither of these pitchers are aces or even top 2 starters. I have to give the nod to the home White Sox' hot bats who just scored 4 earned on Grienke (who is probably the nastiest pitcher in the bigs right now) yesterday. Hotter bats and better pitcher lately goes to the White Sox. I am playing CWS ML and RL, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the A's win. Good luck to everybody whichever side you are on.

[cocknocker]

But Floyd has given up 3, 0 (which shouldn't count because it was the Pirates), 6, 8, 6 earned runs in those last 5 starts. That's not worthy of a -150 line, ram1502

[macadams]

Late money coming in on Joba @ -180 ATM

[ram1502]

Look at Cahill on the road...0-1 with 5.79 ERA in 18 2/3 IP. Given up 24 hits, 13 runs, 12 ER, only 3 SO's, 15 walks,1 HR, opps OBP of .449 and WHIP of 2.09

vs. Floyd at home...1-2, 3.55 ERA in 25 1/3 innings. Given up 11 runs, 10 ER, 27 hits, with 25 SO's, 11 walks, 0 HR, opps OPB of .339 and WHIP of 1.50.

In their last 5 games, the A's as a team are averaging 2.4 runs per game, while giving up 7 per game.

In their last 5 games, the White Sox as a team are averaging 5.6 runs per game, while only giving up 2.8 per.

From what I see, the White Sox bats are hot, A's are not. White Sox pitchers are hot, A's are not. The A's have no advantage that I can see here. White Sox' bullpen has the A's outclassed. Cahill may throw a gem and Floyd might be throwing grapefruits tonight, but I'll take my chances. Again, good luck no matter which side you are on, that's just my two cents.

[macadams]

NYY ML -200 now, you guys must feel great about your booked RL's.

[The_Kid]

Volquez was pulled in the 2nd inning. I'm guessing his back tightened up in that 1st inning.

[Dexter]

yanks blew it....bases loaded no out (3 bb's by sowers) and they pulled him at just the right time. this time, the bullpen gets the job done.