anyway it did get butchered. put the years in the far left column and AVG and start laying the data in the second column with April @ the top and it will come out ok in excel (or JMP if you are really slick)
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Comment -
I think that this is the wrong way of going about this. You are loading up primarily on a few plays and basically turning the pure CK Grand Slam style of play into the type of normal plays in baseball that drive people nuts if they can't handle a losing streak by being speific with what you will play. By limiting the possibilities you effectively can lose those 10-5 days in the name of going maybe 2-1. Too much education is bad in some instances, and this is one of them. By the end of the year you won't end up with the 180-200 extra wins doing this. You will only end up with maybe 70-85 wins with 30 or so losses. In my opinion that is not enough to offset what you have given up by trying to tamper with the system and get too cute with it. Just because a team is 70% on 1st inning runs the 1st quarter of the year doesn't mean that it will continue all season long. But as they say, it's your money.Comment -
[quote=solobass;1899948]The only ones that should be played flat are the lines that are over -140. Oly a fool would take a wager with vigorish for a line that is -150 for a first inning run. I pay the vig for everything -140 and under. The book that I use has much better lines than any of you are getting, so I rarely end up with a -140 line anyway. The public came along and slammed the Greek and Betus, etc. What I did was as soon as I saw the lines start going up, I moved to old faithful and I have never looked back. You cannot win at this syste without paying the vig if there is any. As a rule with the PC's I cannot divulge the book that I use. The only person at SBR who knows what book I use is Dexter, and it will have to stay that way so that i won't lose te comfort that I have there in the lines.Comment -
Bet 1/40th of your roll per or as in my case, I wager $300 and the vig applied per wager.Comment -
I'm currently working on breaking down all of 2008. I'm breaking out by TEAM, and PITCHER, both HOME and AWAY. I'ts somewhat complicated sorting, but I should have the program ready soon (?).
2008: 2428 games: 1348 YES, 1080 NO.
When breaking out the YES's, I'm separating the Home and Away teams. There are many occasions where both score in the 1st.
I scanned todays games and found these interest bits of info:
MIL at FLA: Suppan vs Miller
In 17 away games, Suppan has allowed runs in the 1st only 4 times. In 9 games at home Miller allowed runs on 3 occasions. I'm a little fuzzy on the correct match, but figuring probability using Poisson to calculate the outcome of 2 separate events happening, I come up with .434% of either team scoring in the 1st. The Greek has this bet NO at +100 at time of writing this. Big odds advantage for the NO....(should be laying money).
CIN at STL: Volques vs. Wellenmeyer
Volques is coming of the DL today, so keep that in mind, but in 16 Away starts last year he allowed a run only 2 times Yikes). Wellenmeyer is strong early in the game at home and he allowed a run only 5 times in 18 starts. This computes to .332 probability of a run being scored by EITHER team. Big edge to the NO in this game. Line is NO -120 at Greek. Furthermore, STL is hitting at 2% below their 2009 avg, AND 12% below league avg for the last 7 days.
I'm still grinding on this project as the formula's dont' come "second-nature" to me. If anyone can direct me to a site where 2009 linescores can be downloaded into Excell, I'd appreciate it.
Good Luck on your action...
Comment -
Burn this thread by Friday, Netinfo. It's continued existence will only make the lines go higher like what happened in AprilComment -
Folks, I'm going to request that this thread be discontinued by Friday in accordance with CK's advice. I received a PM explaining in detail the reasons for this, and I am convinced that it would be best for us to limit the amount of heavy public betting on these bets. We don't want the lines to get any worse than they already are.
So, for four days, we can discuss whatever that needs to be discussed with this, and by Friday, let's just let this thread die out, or have it locked by a Mod. Those who want to play Yes on everything can continue to play that way, and those who want to play selectively like me can do that as well (just copy/paste to your computer or print out the percentages for your reference). You can even strike a middle ground between CK's version and mine, by playing everything except the bottom three on the list which are 45% or less (Red teams). You can do whatever you like
Uncle Willie or any other Mod, lock this thread on Friday!
netinfoComment -
This is the trade off between low-percentage high volume bets (original system) versus high-percentage low volume bets (filtered system). I agree that back-testing for filters, such as this teams filter, would be quite helpful for those of us who prefer selective low volume betting over random high volume betting. If only I had a computer program that can look up this back-testing information for me with one click of the mouseInteresting stats netinfo. Good work.
However, I feel that the profitability of the system lies in the volume of bets being made and won. So even if you're hitting around 55% for the season, that translates to a big payoff.
If you followed this yesterday, you would probably break even or suffer a small loss as opposed to be being up roughly 11 units (betting 3 units a game) if you played all games (10-5 on Sunday). On the other hand, using these filters would have greatly reduced the losses during the painful 12-23 record over the previous three days. Like you said, this needs to be back tested to see how it compares to the original version.
So far, there seems to be three main strategies:good work netinfo, lets hope we can work out a strategy that can get us a higher win %
1. Play Yes on everything.
2. Play as I suggested in the first thread.
3. Play Yes on everything except the bottom 45% or less teams.
I'm going to keep a personal tally on these three for June, and see which one produces a higher winning %.
Great woork netinfo, thanks for the breakdown. Let's cash June!
Yes, for my own personal recording. I want to see how the percentages of April/May/June together will vary from the current percentages of April/May. This way, I can approach July with a larger sample size.Thanks for the research!
Are you going to continue it?
No problem.Wow thanks a lot net info. I was looking for these stats yesterday. Really appreciate it.
If you want to average out the percentages, and determine your Unit play based on that, then it's up to you. Personally, I'll just play 1 Unit, unless two 65% or more teams are playing each other, then I'll go 2 Units. Also, if you want to factor in the starting pitcher, that's an extra filter you can use, and the more filters you can use, the better, though ofcourse your volume of play will reduce tremendously.So what do you feel is the strongest play here?
Marlins/Brew Crew?
In other words do we average out the percentages against each other which would make the Mets?pirates play the #1 pick.
Also we should really factor in the starting pitcher here.
Historically speaking veteran pitchers typically get stronger as the game goes.
So they will give up a run or two early and shut them down from there.
Just my opinion on the matter. Great info. I had a HORRIBLE May and I need to bounce back.
I need a lock like no tomorrow.
Got some change?????
Good to know, thanks!All of Andrew Miller's (marlins starter) starts have been a YES.
Thanks, I hope your research is fruitful!thanks you saved me a lot of time today, i was going to do the same thing. i am running numbers six ways from sunday trying to squeeze as much as i can from this. best of luck today!
Good info., thanks!also people, use some common sense. yesterday i laid the wood (max bet + vig on -120, straight on anything worse) big time. for the three years that i have crunched the numbers (2006, 2007, 2008) only once has this system lost 4 days in a row. a few times a year it will go on a 3 day negative run, and next time it happens LAY THE WOOD.
I actually quite agree with the starting pitching filter. In my opinion, the more filters, the better, and the SP filter is one key filter that should be determined.Ummm...what?
I really don't understand a lot of the logic in the posts in this thread.
It seems to be that any bet on first inning scoring should be based primarily on:
1. Starting pitcher quality.
2. Quality of hitters in the top 4-6 spots in the lineup.
3. Possibly past results for the SP in the first inning of games.
Anything else is just including a lot of 'noise' that confuses the analysis.
No, I haven't looked at the past years with this teams filter. I only saw what Cheme82 had in his spreadsheets, the general plays, without the filter.Last time CIN/REDS played all 3 games had a run in the first inning.
Netinfo, have you looked back at other years? Somehow I have a feeling that over the course of the full season most teams will regress to the mean. If that's true, the fact that Florida has hit so heavy means that they are due for a drought. Any data on that?
I'm still thinking that playing all is the way to go or just avoiding the bottom plays.
Great work!
As far as Florida for example, I won't play Florida if they are playing a team that is less than 55% (Purple and Red teams), so I'm hoping that the losses for Florida will come on those Purple and Red teams. So, even if Florida does regress to the mean, perhaps I can avoid the majority of their losses if I stick to 55% or more teams. This is just for June anyways, the percentages will most likely change by the end of June. Some Purple teams will probably become Green, and some Green will become Purple.
Playing all teams except the bottom (Red) teams is actually a good middle ground strategy. I'll track it along with the original system plays, and my own plays.
This is quite useful, thanks! The breakdown by months shows clearly which are the hot and cold months. Based on that, it looks like we may very likely get a cold month this month of June.this is my sheet of wins by month hopefully it does not get butchered here. ex 32w = 32 more wins than losses. for ranking purposes (near the bottom) i have left out October. there is a different method for that madness outlined by the man/myth/legend/slam dancer CK
April May June July August September October Year
2006 32w 59w 37w 55w 23w 27w 7L 194
2007 39w 62w 10w 30w 58w 65w 7w 232
2008 14L 37w 18w 15L 54w 51w 22w 157
2009 12w 55w
averages here do not contain 2009 data
AVG 19w 52.7w 21.7w 23.3w 45w 47.7w 7.3w
#6 #1 #5 #4 #3 #2 194 (ranked by average profit)
anyway it did get butchered. put the years in the far left column and AVG and start laying the data in the second column with April @ the top and it will come out ok in excel (or JMP if you are really slick)
I appreciate your number crunching!
Good points made here. I appreciate the constructive criticism to my revised version of your system. As I mentioned above, I'm going to privately track three strategies for June:I think that this is the wrong way of going about this. You are loading up primarily on a few plays and basically turning the pure CK Grand Slam style of play into the type of normal plays in baseball that drive people nuts if they can't handle a losing streak by being speific with what you will play. By limiting the possibilities you effectively can lose those 10-5 days in the name of going maybe 2-1. Too much education is bad in some instances, and this is one of them. By the end of the year you won't end up with the 180-200 extra wins doing this. You will only end up with maybe 70-85 wins with 30 or so losses. In my opinion that is not enough to offset what you have given up by trying to tamper with the system and get too cute with it. Just because a team is 70% on 1st inning runs the 1st quarter of the year doesn't mean that it will continue all season long. But as they say, it's your money.
1. The system as designed.
2. My revision to the system.
3. The system as designed minus the bottom red teams.
BOL
Very good info., I appreciate your efforts. Having more than one filter is best. I really like the starting pitcher filter, in addition to the teams filter, and I think the home/away stats are also quiet useful.I'm currently working on breaking down all of 2008. I'm breaking out by TEAM, and PITCHER, both HOME and AWAY. I'ts somewhat complicated sorting, but I should have the program ready soon (?).
2008: 2428 games: 1348 YES, 1080 NO.
When breaking out the YES's, I'm separating the Home and Away teams. There are many occasions where both score in the 1st.
I scanned todays games and found these interest bits of info:
MIL at FLA: Suppan vs Miller
In 17 away games, Suppan has allowed runs in the 1st only 4 times. In 9 games at home Miller allowed runs on 3 occasions. I'm a little fuzzy on the correct match, but figuring probability using Poisson to calculate the outcome of 2 separate events happening, I come up with .434% of either team scoring in the 1st. The Greek has this bet NO at +100 at time of writing this. Big odds advantage for the NO....(should be laying money).
CIN at STL: Volques vs. Wellenmeyer
Volques is coming of the DL today, so keep that in mind, but in 16 Away starts last year he allowed a run only 2 times Yikes). Wellenmeyer is strong early in the game at home and he allowed a run only 5 times in 18 starts. This computes to .332 probability of a run being scored by EITHER team. Big edge to the NO in this game. Line is NO -120 at Greek. Furthermore, STL is hitting at 2% below their 2009 avg, AND 12% below league avg for the last 7 days.
I'm still grinding on this project as the formula's dont' come "second-nature" to me. If anyone can direct me to a site where 2009 linescores can be downloaded into Excell, I'd appreciate it.
Good Luck on your action...
BOL with your program!
Take care,
netinfoComment -
Shouldn't we all just keep it as simple as possible as CK mentioned. Why complicate things. He laid out a simple plan for us all, just hit the magic word every morning "YES" and at the end of the year your going to be much more happier.
Just my thoughts.Comment -
Did some backtesting for 2008 with netinfo's suggestions in the initial post of this thread. I continuously updated the percentage for every day starting from May 1st, 2008 to Aug 31st, 2008.
Average odds of -110 for Jun, Jul and Aug 2008.
Betting 3 units per match in May-Jul and 5 units in Aug-Sep.
May 2008: Used this month to calculate percentages. (54.5 units original method)
Jun 2008: +18.5 units filtered Vs +2 units (original method)
Jul 2008: -18 units filtered Vs -94.5 unitts (original method)
Aug 2008: 9 units filtered Vs 157 units (original method)
Haven't done the filtered backtesting for Sep 2008 but with the original method Sep 08 produced 152 units.Comment -
I put some effort into fiddling with ways to improve the system in April, using data from 2005-2008. I had percentages for every inning and looked into home and away, team breakdowns, etc. Interesting exercise, but ultimately too much work and it defeats the inherent simplicity and stress-free nature of the system.
The only additional bit of info from my analysis that I feel was really helpful is that the "No" hits in the second inning even more often than the yes does in the first inning.Comment -
interesting observation....my initial reaction is nearly the same. Preliminary analysis indicates that the NO is better played in the 1st inning due to the typical available odds. Laying money on a proposition that has a -EV is not compforting.....still a work in progress.Comment -
Sweet!! You don't work for a livin do ya or married??
Comment -
i dont get why you folks who are playing this insist on continuing to talk about this in public.
you've already seen the ramifications of making this so visible on a site where several books advertise.Comment -
For today June 1, the record for the three strategies:
1. Play yes on everything: 4 - 5
2. Play with my revisions: 2 - 1
3. Play yes on everything except Red teams: 3 - 4
I'll do this publicly for 3 more days, and then you guys can privately track it on your own when this thread dies.
It's up to you bro. The less-complicated play would be to just bet Yes on everything. Some of us prefer a little more complication, that is, filtersShouldn't we all just keep it as simple as possible as CK mentioned. Why complicate things. He laid out a simple plan for us all, just hit the magic word every morning "YES" and at the end of the year your going to be much more happier.
Just my thoughts.
Thanks for your effort bro!Did some backtesting for 2008 with netinfo's suggestions in the initial post of this thread. I continuously updated the percentage for every day starting from May 1st, 2008 to Aug 31st, 2008.
Average odds of -110 for Jun, Jul and Aug 2008.
Betting 3 units per match in May-Jul and 5 units in Aug-Sep.
May 2008: Used this month to calculate percentages. (54.5 units original method)
Jun 2008: +18.5 units filtered Vs +2 units (original method)
Jul 2008: -18 units filtered Vs -94.5 unitts (original method)
Aug 2008: 9 units filtered Vs 157 units (original method)
Haven't done the filtered backtesting for Sep 2008 but with the original method Sep 08 produced 152 units.
Just so I'm clear on what you did... Did you use the teams of May 08 to determine June 08? Or, did you use my list of April/May 09 teams to determine June 08?
Since we are relying on trends, the teams change from one year to the next, and so, for example, this year's (April-May) blue teams on my list may not have been May 08's blue teams. It would therefore not be accurate to use this year's blue or green teams to backtrack any one of the months of last year. Only last year's April teams can determine last year's May, and then determine June, and so forth.
Take care,
netinfoComment -
Hey netinfo,
I used 2008 records to do the percentages. I started from May 1st 2008.
In my humble opinion, filtering according to what you laid out in the first post of this thread will severely cut down the profits in highly profitable months where first innings runs are scored aplenty. It sure does help in the losing or less profitable months though.Comment -
Not sure about anyone else here, but I neither work for a living nor am I married!!! At least, not yetSweet!! You don't work for a livin do ya or married??
Don't worry, this thread will die on Friday.i dont get why you folks who are playing this insist on continuing to talk about this in public.
you've already seen the ramifications of making this so visible on a site where several books advertise.
see my new avatar? shhh
It was opened to give anyone here an opportunity to apply a teams filter to their betting, possibly, to increase their winning %. An option that some might consider.
netinfoComment -
Thanks bro.Hey netinfo,
I used 2008 records to do the percentages. I started from May 1st 2008.
In my humble opinion, filtering according to what you laid out in the first post of this thread will severely cut down the profits in highly profitable months where first innings runs are scored aplenty. It sure does help in the losing or less profitable months though.
Take care,
netinfoComment -
Kill this threadComment -
Just throwing this out there... I don't take credit for this. I saw it on another tread a while back wrote it down can't remember who's rule it is, but has anyone backtested or have any thoughts on this strat...
Play and plus line for flat money
Play any line from -101 to -120 by paying the juice
play any line from -121 to -139 flat
fade any line over -140Comment -
Results for May 09 (Note: Sometimes I get odds such as -105, -115, -125 - but these are the most common ranges)
+115 and above: +3 units
+110: +23.4 units
+105: +15.75 units
+100: +15 units
-110 : -11.5 units
-120 : +6 units
-130 : -15.7 units
-140 : +15.9 units
-141 and lower: +8.5 unitsComment -
Thank you kindlyComment -
I first saw this strategy in a post by kmarinouofm. It's a good lines filter, a way to compensate for, or get around, a huge vig.Just throwing this out there... I don't take credit for this. I saw it on another tread a while back wrote it down can't remember who's rule it is, but has anyone backtested or have any thoughts on this strat...
Play and plus line for flat money
Play any line from -101 to -120 by paying the juice
play any line from -121 to -139 flat
fade any line over -140
Personally, my usual preference is to play all my bets flat, irregardless of the line. I risk a Unit on most of my bets, irregardless of whether the line is - or +, and irregardless of whether it's a low - or a high -.
The standard way to play is to lay the vig on - lines in order to win one Unit, and risk one Unit on + lines in order to win whatever the amount is. I don't play this standard way of playing. The above lines strategy seems to be a middle ground between how I play versus the standard way of playing.
This lines info. for May is pretty cool! The only troublesome spots shown here are the -110 and -130 lines, and aside from the low profit line of +115, the next lowest profit line was -120 with just 6 Units. I suppose that one possible strategy could be to flat bet the lines from -110 to -130, since this area is the core of the losses, and flat betting can help in cutting down the juice.Results for May 09 (Note: Sometimes I get odds such as -105, -115, -125 - but these are the most common ranges)
+115 and above: +3 units
+110: +23.4 units
+105: +15.75 units
+100: +15 units
-110 : -11.5 units
-120 : +6 units
-130 : -15.7 units
-140 : +15.9 units
-141 and lower: +8.5 units
I'm presuming that the above calculated Units are based upon the standard way of playing.
netinfoComment -
Looks like we should load up on the + lines and -140 lines. Which yes 1st innings look good today?Scared money don't make money
182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFSComment -
Yes and no. For sure this has been very profitable for the month of May as it is most years (I rough back tracked 3 years). Problem you run into is that June is typicallly a losing month. So if you jumped on late as I have because my all my units were spent elsewhere, I feel I have to pick and choose. Then again who's to say this trend will continue...or will it...? I have a local book for this so I'm immune to the 1st inning 10% vig increase at Greek. But I will stop reviving this thread if that's what everyone wants.Comment -
Whats going on here?
Someone trying to be helpful, provide information that makes sense and even explaining it...
Nice job hope you win all year! Not for me but hopefully several take advantage... GL G.Comment -
wat are you guys playin today?Comment -
Yes Brewers/Marlins
Yes Reds/Cardinals
Yes Orioles/Mariners
No Giants/Nationals (lincecum)
Orioles and Mariners is the only one I am pondering whether to cancel. Bedard is very good.Scared money don't make money
182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFSComment -
Today, CK's original system performed better than my revised system.
Based on my suggestions laid out on page 1 of this thread, today's plays were 1 Unit on these: Yes TX/NYY, Yes CIN/STL, Yes MIL/FLA, and Yes NYM/PIT.
Today's Record:
1. Play yes on everything: 8 - 7
2. Play with my revisions: 1 - 3
3. Play yes on everything except Red teams: 5 - 7
June so far:
1. Play yes on everything: 12 - 12
2. Play with my revisions: 3 - 4
3. Play yes on everything except Red teams: 8 - 11
My plays for tomorrow are the same for today, based on the same percentages laid out on page 1.
1 Unit, Yes on TX/NYY, CIN/STL, MIL/FLA, and NYM/PIT.
I'll try and do this for two more days until this thread dies on Friday, or sooner, and I'll then keep track of it privately to see which of the three strategies above comes out on top for June.
netinfoComment -
Based on the lines for May, yeah, + lines and -140 lines have been quite good, but then again, June might not reflect the same thing as May. For all we know, the -110 to -130 lines could be the most profitable this month!Looks like we should load up on the + lines and -140 lines. Which yes 1st innings look good today?
If it can be consistently established that + lines and -140 or over lines are often the most reliable lines in turning out positive Units, then you just found yourself another good filter to add to this system! Unfortunately, as with all these filters, more testing is needed.
Thanks bro, I too hope this selective strategy turns out solid winning days all year long, but for now, I'm just using it as a test case for June, in comparison with the already proven system that CK put together.Whats going on here? Someone trying to be helpful, provide information that makes sense and even explaining it...
Nice job hope you win all year! Not for me but hopefully several take advantage... GL G.
My playing strategy, as a test case for June, is this:wat are you guys playin today?
Based on the percentages on page 1, and my color coding there:
1. Bet Yes two Units on Blue vs. Blue colored teams.
2. Bet Yes one Unit on Blue vs. Green, and Green vs. Green colored teams.
3. No play on Blue/Green vs. Purple/Red colored teams.
4. No play on Purple vs. Purple, and Purple vs. Red colored teams.
5. Bet No one Unit on Red vs. Red colored teams.
That's my suggested strategy for June, but one can play other strategies as well.
I hope you kept the Orioles/Mariners play today! I didn't play this one cause it wasn't part of my strategy, but I hope you did, and cashed on it!Yes Brewers/Marlins
Yes Reds/Cardinals
Yes Orioles/Mariners
No Giants/Nationals (lincecum)
Orioles and Mariners is the only one I am pondering whether to cancel. Bedard is very good. Today 05:33 PM
netinfoComment -
Yes I did cash on that mariners/orioles. The only reason I played it was because it was +110 and those are hitting nicely lately. I really shouldn't have done the Giants/Nationals No. I never play the No.
Marlins are going to hit a yes any second now, they have gone 2 straight with No's.Scared money don't make money
182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFSComment -
Yeah, I rarely play the No. For my current strategy for June, I'll play No if the Tigers are playing the White Sox. Marlins did hit on June 1, but the Mets have actually gone three days without hitting a Yes, so I'm hoping that ends tomorrow!Yes I did cash on that mariners/orioles. The only reason I played it was because it was +110 and those are hitting nicely lately. I really shouldn't have done the Giants/Nationals No. I never play the No.
Marlins are going to hit a yes any second now, they have gone 2 straight with No's.
netinfoComment
