Mr. Crumbs Leans for Friday 5/15/09

[macadams]

Ok, Houston has won five out of their last six, but three of these to a slow SD team and prior to going on this little mini-run they lost two straight to today's oppononent. HOU also weaker on the road than at home. Moehler got this 2+ whip thing going on, and the cubs have done really well agains relatively poor pitching lately
Wellemeyer 3-3 whip 1.74 --> 6 R in 5 innings
Petit 0-3 whip 1.74 --> 7 R in 3.2 innings
Badenhop 1.5 whip (4.26 ERA) --> 4 R in 0.2 innings
Sanchez 1.78 whip (5.79 ERA) --> 6 R in 4 innings
Nolasco 1.68 whip (7.78 ERA) --> 6 R in 6 innings
J. Sanchez 1.72 whip (5.06 ERA) --> 4 R in 4 innings
Hampton 1.54 whip (5.31 ERA) --> 5 R in 5 innings
Ortiz 1.93 whip (5.5 ERA) --> 3 R in 2 innings
Suppan 1.49 whip (5.5 ERA) --> 4 R in 6 innings
Young 1.51 whip (5.56 ERA) --> 6 R in 4 innings
Gaudin 1.55 whip (4.91 ERA) --> 4 R in 4.1 innings
Cubs aren't as good as they were last year, but I like this angle. I like the Cubs at home in this one.

[chucksmith]

TEX -112 vs Ana_Rangers riding high coming off sweep of Seattle and successful road trip before that. Sending their ace, Millwood, to the mound for a Friday night home game that should be a near sell out. I like this situation and think Texas does just enough to beat Saunders. Rangers are 8-4 vs LHP.

TEX/Ana under 5 1st 5_See above

DET -1.5 +145 vs Oak_Oakland has been boozing all day in Detroit celebrating their home sweep over KC. Meanwhile, Detroit is stewing after the pen blew a 5-0 lead as they were swept by MINN. I dont like the RL with home teams but will play it and pick up crumbs in this situation, as I agree with Dexter and like what I have seen of Jackson.

Will put some more ideas out there later.

[macadams]

That NYY game just might go OVER, don't you think? Liriano and Hughes, gotta like the over, right?

[macadams]

Booked:

Cubs straight up @ 1.68

Cubs +1.5 @ 1.48

Astros-Cubs OVER @ 1.98

[jaymac82980]

cubs over? what if the rain gets bad and the game gets called? I gotta say if it's rainy there (which i'm not sure, but I heard rain) that would slow things down.

[The_Kid]

Somebody get me a weather report on the direction of the wind and the MPH in Chicago today. If the wind is blowing out in the stadium, then I will be taking the over in the early game as Houston has hot bats right now to counter what kind of production the Cubs can bring...

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/mlb/gameforecast/60613?eventid=293560

[overdose.fR]

Plays for today:

Cubs -149 Wind blowing IN from Right at 10-14 mph.... I like the Cubs here. They have won there last 4 out of 5 against the Stros.... And have been playing great at home as of late. Milton is out due to a "1" game suspension, and ARam is on the DL because of his shoulder too. The line came out at -170 and is down to -149 with 75% of the public liking the Cubs.....So RLM would say to take Houston. I'm rolling with the Cubs anyways! I think Moehler is a bum and he has actually pitched better of late though with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.67 Whip over his last 3...... Yeah.....that's the bum pitching "better".....That's my point-Even when he's pitching well he's not that great. Wells debut at Milw last week went 5 innings pitched, 0 Earned Runs, Whip of 1.40. He said he is much more relaxed now going into his 2nd start....I think he pitches a gem today.

Toronto -125 Last 3 starts-Cecil 0.64/0.92 Danks 6.46/1.63 Enough said....Rollin with the Blue Jays

Colorado Even Last 3 starts-De La Rosa 3.32/0.84 Malholm 7.13/1.69 Same as above....

Clev/TB OVER 9 1/2 -110 Last 3 starts-Reyes 10.38/2.15 Kazmir 8.81/2.15

KC -1 1/2 -110 Last 3 starts-Eaton 7.31 1.62 Greinke 1.12/0.70

Bost/Seattle OVER 9 -115 Last 3 starts-Lester 8.31/1.67 Jakub 8.10/1.20

Cincy -125 Last 3 starts Harang 4.26/1.31 Correia 6.28/1.88

Arizona +155 (1st 5 innings) Last 3 starts-Davis 2.60/1.15 Vazquez 5.24/1.07
I think AZ can get it done early and may even win this game. But Atl has a slight bullpen edge so I will roll with AZ in the 1st 5 innings at +155.

Other 1st 5 inning plays I like: Milw -115, Florida -140

I go by other stats as well, such as bullpen, batting avg vs lefty/righty....Pitcher's K's to walks, etc....But the 1st thing I have been looking at is there ERA/Whip last 3 starts. I owe that to Dexter....

I really do not see the RLM here: if 75% are on CHC, the line is supposed to go from -170 to -149, there is no sharp move here; unless i am mistaken

[macadams]

cubs over? what if the rain gets bad and the game gets called? I gotta say if it's rainy there (which i'm not sure, but I heard rain) that would slow things down.

Thnx for taking the time to comment on my post, that's so cool. Original line of thinking was that the cubs have done really well agains so-so minus pitching and the Astros bullpen is drained, Cubs also have been poorer bp-wise and HOU is going to contribute because their bats are getting more into things lately. I see 100% ch. for precip, don't like that, the wind across if it stays at 11 mph I think I can live with, but I see what you're saying, the rain slowing down stuff. I honestly didn't consider that the game could be called, I'll admit that.

Thnx again.

[jaymac82980]

macadams, anything can happen. I stayed away for fear of the weather getting really bad, with my luck I'd take the over and the rain would turn horrible and shut it down after 4 1/2 innings, or whatever it takes to make action, of coarse the score would be just below the total needed and I'd be kicking my dog and asking him, "why do you pick such bad games to bet on? why?"


Overdose, I think if the majority of the public was on the cubs, then normally the line would increase (example -150 up to -170). RLM means that even though the public is mainly betting on cubs, the line is moving down for some strange odd reason......or I could be way off on what RLM means.

[ram1502]

That is right jaymac. If there is 75% of the public on the Cubs and the line opened at -170 and is at -150 right now then that is perfect RLM. It should be at like -190 or so, but evidently the books think the Astros will win or there is some sharp money on Houston. It may be easier to think about it in basketball terms...if the Celtics opened at -5 and with 75% on them the line went to -3, then that would be RLM. Hope this helps.

[macadams]

Rained out, cubs postponed...

[jaymac82980]

wow, good thing they postponed it. hopefully they dont play and you get your loot back...or if they do play, hopefully the over hits. GL.

Ram1502, thanks for reminding me I'm not crazy.

[laxdjock]

I went to place a last minute HOU bet and it was pulled..........but then it was postponed. No harm, no foul.

[CP Thrizzle]

This is a pretty hot video of Megan Fox, for those of you who haven't seen it yet:

http://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshhHGWIp54M2HbN9qQc

[macadams]

I'm considering rolling everything over on the Bosox, with Beddard missing the start and Jakubauskas having to step out the pen + Vargas and Ardsma unavailable you're left with a bunch of "a run an inning" guys there. Boston nicked up, but OAK doesn't score much, yeah they won some of late, but it's gotten to the point where I don't even count SD games. Boston keeps getting performances from lesser known guys as Big P continues to stink, who's going to talk me out of it?

[homerbush]

who cares if you bet a total and the game gets called or shortened unless it is just my books that cancel your total when this happens even if you went over. I had under 11.5 in that Cubs Padres game the other day and the final was 6-4 but in 8 and my wager was cancelled. This i thought was standard practice so it should no affect your decision.

[cohen59]

I'm considering rolling everything over on the Bosox, with Beddard missing the start and Jakubauskas having to step out the pen + Vargas and Ardsma unavailable you're left with a bunch of "a run an inning" guys there. Boston nicked up, but OAK doesn't score much, yeah they won some of late, but it's gotten to the point where I don't even count SD games. Boston keeps getting performances from lesser known guys as Big P continues to stink, who's going to talk me out of it?

Wouldn't do that buddy Bedard is missing his start towmorrow not today i would not throw everything you have got on Boston with lester pitching and a bunch of dents in there lineup unless you want to take a trip to Seatle take a needle load it with steroids and inject it into David Ortiz's ass then maybe you have something to work with!!

[wangichu]

Seriously though, the Celtics and their referees are the correct call in game 7. And then bet anything you have on the Cavs in game 1. Load up heavy on that one. matter of fact it doesn't matter which one of the teams survives, they get blasted in game one. The Celtics will be worse because they have played the most playoff games out of all the playoff teams. Ray Allen is already tired.

I agreed with you with every bone in my body, but i just can't get over the progression of spreads that the books have been dropping...

game 1 ORL +3.5 (RLM to 1.5)
game 2 ORL +2.5
game 3 @ORL -5
game 4 @ORL -5
game 5 ORL +2.5 (RLM to 2)
game 6 @ ORL -6 (RLM to 7)
game 7 ORL +1 ...

the books know that everyone believes in boston to get it done here and yet they keep throwing the public these cookies... i don't want to say that i was lucky to have made the right call in game 6 (especially since i bought down to -4 for more breathing room), but there are too many reasons NOT to play Orlando for the books to be making it so easy to play boston... whatever i settle on, i think it'll be some derivative of buying points on orlando... this is just too fishy. Plus i think orlando will come out and win the first half as they normally own first halves in this series and have always won the first half in games following 1st halves dominated by the celtics.... Something's afoot here and i don't plan on donating my bankroll to the books without a fight.

*** sorry, i know this is a baseball thread, but i saw that and had to say something.

[alukk]

Friday:
Nats
Tampa
Kansas
Mariners
Mets
all of em ml

[cohen59]

Wouldn't do that buddy Bedard is missing his start towmorrow not today i would not throw everything you have got on Boston with lester pitching and a bunch of dents in there lineup unless you want to take a trip to Seatle take a needle load it with steroids and inject it into David Ortiz's ass then maybe you have something to work with!!

With that being said i still like boston to win this game but i would never put all your money into one bet especially baseball!!

[alukk]

This is a pretty hot video of Megan Fox, for those of you who haven't seen it yet:

http://www.worldstarhiphop.com/video...WIp54M2HbN9qQc

just amazing

[cocknocker]

You're right wang. But the saying goes if you planned on winning a game 7 you don't plan on doing it in Boston. The referees will help them pull out the close victory. Besides I have them on +200 series price after game 1. It doesn't make sense for me to bet on that game for the side

[macadams]

Wanted to say the rookie Jakubauskas was bad last time and will feel extra pressure to stay out there today because of the injury troubles (among them Bedard's hamstring), Morrow just blew his first save, I think they was really disheartened by the loss of Kelley, Ardsma and Vargas unavailable tonight...I think I'll go for it, looking at - and liking - Cincy too.

[macadams]

With that being said i still like boston to win this game but i would never put all your money into one bet especially baseball!!

Oh, I see what you mean, when I said "rolling everything over...into" I was referring to my stake in the Cubs game that rained out, of course I wouldn't go all in on a game like this, naturally not. But the money that I put on the postponed Cubs game, that money has now been put on Boston.

Good looking out though!

[cohen59]

Oh, I see what you mean, when I said "rolling everything over...into" I was referring to my stake in the Cubs game that rained out, of course I wouldn't go all in on a game like this, naturally not. But the money that I put on the postponed Cubs game, that money has now been put on Boston.

Good looking out though!

Lol... gotcha BOL with your picks tongiht!!!

[IfDntmk$itDntmkc]

The mafia will get it all back today. I feel Megan Fox is the charm. Just think if we sent over a pic of Leann Tweeden?

[BL]

Hey CK,
i'm with you on Giants and Florida.
For the Celtics Game: I think Boston will do it but i don't feel confident going with the public. So no big bet for me. will buy it down to -1 i think.
Good Luck today !!

[laxdjock]

Florida-1.5 +160 Hella BIG
Braves/D-Backs over 9

FL seems to be the public favorite.....odd.
I'm getting Braves/Dbacks 8.5....gift or trap?

[cohen59]

FL seems to be the public favorite.....odd.
I'm getting Braves/Dbacks 8.5....gift or trap?

I wouldn't be confident in the over or the under in that game!

[macadams]

I wouldn't be confident in the over or the under in that game!

Braves would have to score all nine runs themselves...

[laxdjock]

Braves would have to score all nine runs themselves...

That's my concern.

I took:

FL -1.5 +150, 1 unit
CIN -1.5 +143, 1 unit
KC -1.5 +100, 1 unit
PITT ML -104, 1 unit
FL -1.5 & NYM -1.5 +756, 1 unit

Depending on how the 7pm go...I may go NYM ML @ 150ish.

[d2bets]

Good luck.

[Dexter]

wang - the books made an error on bos -1, and the wiseguys have hit it. god bless you if you have the guts to bet on a 3 pt shooting team in game 7 at the boston garden

celtics -3 (5x)

Playoff YTD: 13-13 (-3.9x)

*im done just playing 3x only now that ive gotten back to even. now my sizes will vary with a min 3x per

[chucksmith]

I didnt get to it at -1 in time but did roll with -2 last night at 5 Dimes

[macadams]

I played BOS, Cincy & Jays all straight ML. I think NYY is a stay-away. A-rod's first at home (what kind of reaction will he get, bad stats after his home-run first at-bat), Hughes on the mound + Jeter, Matsui (are they 100%?) & Minnesota is a much better team than what it looks like I think. I have a feeling I should back Greinke and it's hard to see how Zona is going to win against the Braves tonight. I like the Texas over (man, that ballpark...).