Mr.Crumbs Leans for Tuesday 5/12/09

[cocknocker]

I have no problem with the Jays whatsoever. But both teams are 2-2 over their last 4 games, and oddly enough are both having similar run production. Halladay can't throw the ball by all of the Yankee hitters. Burnette is familiar with the park, the umpire has a generous strike zone. Burnette will match Halladay pitch for pitch and the Yanks will get it done late. There is only a half run differential in favor of the Jays as far as run production is concerned. I like my chances and the Rumbs. You guys are acting like I have a personal vendetta against certain pitchers or whatever. It's nothing personal at all. I just wager the exact oposite of the norm. I look for the most crumbs that i can find where the team has a reasonable chance to win. The Yanks have a chance to win this game.

[ragiche]

Not a good day yesterday loss 4 units.But i'm still 16 up. So i'm gonna play small for today.As CK have told me before about money management.Use the books money.

MLB

Atl ML (CK's)

Hou RRL (CK's)

Ari ML

Bal ML

Min ML

NBA

LaLaker -12 (10x) pc play

[cocknocker]

On top of that, balls just DIE in Oakland at night. I've seen way too many homeruns get cut down in that Marine layer and turn into long outs (actually, MLB.com just did a piece on this...it's a pretty big problem).

Might wanna make this a heavy play, the A's bats are miserable but Cahill will also make the Royals look pretty silly.


My big question right now is on the Twins-Tigers game. Looking like a no-play for me, but getting crumbs on Galaragga is hard to pass up, and I think he's due for a good start. What do you think CK?

Twins are the public play. I don't generally play a outdoor team in game one of a road series against a dome team though. But consensus wise it should work

[Smith]

Completely understand, just see that it has droped to NYY +120 and just see other matchups that seem more appealing. Its a no play for me, but if i was going to play it, id ride with you man. Good luck and like the picks. With 3 dogs, Units should come in. What do you think about Cinci....they produced last night and are +180 tonight.

[macadams]

Whaddup board? Here's one that I'm playing tonight...

I think a lot of people itching to take the Rays tonight: Hendrickson has given up seven jacks so far, TB has some guys can really take this guy to school, plus TB will be playing with real intent because they know they better get these kinds of games before they butt heads with the the powerhouses of their division again. The last two seasons Hendrickson's May numbers HAVE BEEN ABSOLUTELY DREADFUL after good starting month(s) For Sonnanstine: marked improvement last two games, but still giving up hits. I say beware: The O's can score runs without hitting the ball hard and Hendrickson has the current Rays lineup hitting only .287 against him while current O's lineup stands at the .383 mark against Sonnanstine. So they can get to him, and some evidence now there is that it's hard to expect a repeat performence from last year for the TB bullpen. Weighted bat. avg. adv. Baltimore.
Hendrickson is a LEFTY, and now read this from the examiner (27 april): The Rays have lost seven straight games against left-handed starting pitching, scoring a combined 17 runs. Many say the problem is hitting versus lefties. Well, their numbers against lefties are .259 BA, .348 OBP, .409 SLG. Against righties, the Rays turn in .259, .330 and .445. The problem isn’t necessarily the hitting against lefties, it’s the running.
The Rays have stolen 23 bases in 429 at-bats against righties. They’ve stolen exactly one base in 220 at-bats against lefties – and that one was the back end of a double steal in which they had a runner thrown out at third. By nature, southpaws are more difficult to steal off of than righties, but the Rays’ running game has somehow been completely shut down with lefthanders on the mound. This has led to a problem scoring runs. The Rays score 21% more runs per at-bat against righties than they do against lefties, and this is directly related to the difficulty they’ve had stealing bases.
@2.2 to 1, give me the O's at home.

BTW and for what it's worth, Halladay/Burnett = Master/Student A.J has been erratic, so that transit stop to the minors known as the NY bullpen might have to step in...it's a stay-away for me guys I absolutely think this one might come to fruition for you, but there will at least be some sweating involved. Good luck tonite everybody!

[Vreston]

Congratulations on yesterdays plays!
How good can you get dude?

I only took the Giants and the Braves though.

Keep it up guy!

[michiganstatefan]

hey ck if you add to chose 3 or 4 picks of urs to bet including basketball which would you pick first

[macadams]

Ok, here's what I didm I went with Bmore parlayed with MIL who's been playing well lately. I've seen Parra a couple of times this year and I really like him, two home teams and decent lines. This one pays 3.29 to 1, positive expectancy. I did horribly last night, my 3 way went the way of the Johan and when Pavano held his own (sorta kinda) I had no ticket to tribe.

I might have to see if I can talk myself into Houston, basically they're being forced to go small because of injuries but that is what they should have done anyway with LA inferior guard play. Houston gonna hoist the trifectas all night, if they make'em they win, it's to me kinda like having black or red at the roulette with 9x the money if you hit it. Or?

[Blu_Ice]

Ck...I remember yesterday you said "Braves Heavy"...Do you change your mind to take it as a normal play???
Thanks for replying...

[danrman]

Another station break


Everything was a good upgrade except the last part. Only outsiders talk like that to fellow comrades this late in the game. If Dexter said that you were making calls after the game was in progress then I'm gonna have to roll with the side of the family. If you didn't make late calls and made them before the games started yesterday then keep up the good work. Continue making all of your picks look like these above and this whole thing is forgotten. Do the late thing again then you might as well break rank because that is frowned upon. In that circumstance just do like roag bettor and collect your cash and don't even mention it if you hit it and didn't post it.

No need for the personal attacks when everyone has the same goal. You guys want this thing to start looking like G's Picks wannabe page? You want it to look like Machince's thread? Something has to give. It's too early in the morning for this shit. Secondly, you can't be sideways with Dex in public like that. You have to handle this type of thing in PM. This is a quality guy from our former home where this whole underground thing of ours started. So in order for you to be able to come into our thread and call him a douche, you would have to have similar tenure for it to be okay. This is the kind of shit that made our man chuck disappear. It ain't okay to wake up in the mornin' and call our boy a douche on our thread.

I thought that this was a class place with class guys making picks supported by sound reasoning. Y'all take that shit elsewhere.

you asked me that if i had a problem w/ you to pm you so i would expect you to do the same for me but you call me out and side w/ your buddy from the past when he's lying and twisting the truth.. DO YOU LIST ALL YOUR PLAYS EVERYDAY ON THE BOARD.. NO.. neither do i and the second i mention a reverse parlay on 2 late games i completely get assaulted by that psycopath w/ the serial killers name.. i dont need any of this shit in my life so i will now be leaving the board.. DEXTER AND HIS PSYCHO SHENANIGANS HAS CHASED YET ANOTHER PERSON OFF THIS BOARD.. TOTALLY RIDICULOUS!!!.. FOR ROAG,SHOWTIME AND THE REST OF MY FRIENDS ON HERE WHEN I HAVEA SPECIAL PLAY OR CHOICE DIVIDEND CAPTURES FROM STOCKS I WILL PM YOU IF I HAVE TIME... WHAT I DONT HAVE IS TIME FOR THIS RIDICULOUS CHILDISH BULLSHIT!!!!

[JayLiang]

**** it!, im tailing you on your yank's play ck!. Good luck to me and you!

[Chi_archie]

Pujols kills Duke 14-28 lifetime... cards as a whole are .323 against the duke...


Pirates have been unsuccessful against Wellenmeyer, the current roster hits .201 against him over 114 ab's

[melincrea]

I have no problem with the Jays whatsoever. But both teams are 2-2 over their last 4 games, and oddly enough are both having similar run production. Halladay can't throw the ball by all of the Yankee hitters. Burnette is familiar with the park, the umpire has a generous strike zone. Burnette will match Halladay pitch for pitch and the Yanks will get it done late. There is only a half run differential in favor of the Jays as far as run production is concerned. I like my chances and the Rumbs. You guys are acting like I have a personal vendetta against certain pitchers or whatever. It's nothing personal at all. I just wager the exact oposite of the norm. I look for the most crumbs that i can find where the team has a reasonable chance to win. The Yanks have a chance to win this game.

Hope this isn't directed to me! Because that's not what I meant! haha..

[jdiddy]

On the contrary, no he hasn't. I've only went against him 3 times this season, and I am WAY up because I hit him with a big plus money job and a +1.5 play with Texas and the Pale Hose. He did get me against the Angels, but nobody was expecting the Angels to win anyway. So guess what, I only lost just the units for that one, and not a drop of vigorish.

Get your facts straight. But then again, maybe you weren't talking to me. All that I know is that if the Yanks win this one straight up, I will be even more ahead fading Halladay this year. I know what I'm doing when it comes to fading -150 or more lines regardless of who the pitcher is. I'm even ahead of Johan Santana. I won so many units going against him yesterday it's pathetic. And because of the way that I wager, it would take 4 losses going against Santana for him to catch up to the money I won off of fading him so far this year.

Sorry I guess CK = DO on an iPhone...sorry didn't mean to disrespect you or start a trend questioning your pick. I should know better especially after last night. I'm letting my bias get in the way, i'm a big Jays fan and more so hate the Yankmees. But I respect your opinion and will make it a no play tonight, but I will be routing against you! One question on this subject, where do you find the stats about Halladay being under .500 when -150? I know he's won a few this season alread at that price.

tailing you on ATL for sure! GL.

[Rellik]

Let's all have a great day today just like yesterday..full of CRUMBS!!!!

My plays for tonight are:

Atlanta -105 ( CK play)
Florida +160 (CK play)
Toronto -145 ( Yankees are 3-7 on the first game of every series they have played this year so far). I'll take my chances with Halladay.

Parlay #1
Orlando +4.5 (2 point buy)
San Fco. Giants -140
LA Angels -130

$200 to win $810.98

Parlay # 2
Carolina Hurricanes +100
Anaheim Ducks +135
LA Lakers under 200 1/2 (1 1/2 point buy)

$100 to win $705.71

Let's see how the cookie crumbles..!!!!!!

Main Event Mafia...Here we go..!!!!!

[SoonerGreg]

Booked:
MLB
Astros ML +150 @ Rockies (tailing CK)
Angels -1.5 +155 vs Red Sox (Angels own the Red Sox, 10-1 at home)
Giants -1.5 +160 vs Nationals (Giants are 10-4 are home vs Nats and the Nats are terrible on the road)
BlueJays -1.5 +150 vs Yankees (I trust R.H.)

NBA
Magic +3 -130 @ Celtics (Magic are the better team)
Lakers -10 -155 vs Rockets (The L.A. Kobes will roll tonight)

NHL
Bruins / Redwings Parlay +192 (The two best teams all year, one playing to push Game 7 and the other looking to close the series out.)

[showtime2000]

Puck play tonight,


Boston -120 (they seemed to turn things around last game, expect the same tonight)

GLA

[ram1502]

With you showtime. I have Boston and the Wings. These are just the 2 better teams. I can't see the Bruins getting knocked out of the playoffs this early while the Wings have clinched something like 7 or 8 playoff series on the road the past 3 years or some crazy stat like that. They seem to just play more comfortably in these clinching games and let their opponents make the mistakes. Awesome night last night and I hope the destruction of the books continues. GLA

[Dexter]

As I said yesterday, I don't post picks anymore (I'm done with my teaser/parlay threads). I'm just tailing CK and that's it, why f**k around on my own when all I want to do is make money and CK is a proven winner? I have no ego when it comes to capping and betting. I couldn't care less about challenges either, but I enjoy the benefits.

I can see why people get wiped out gambling. I've been wiped out plenty of times, but then I found this place and I'm learning money management. I may change my name to RoagTailer.

roag bettor - ive always liked you and considered you a good contributor to the community - if baseball is not your thing, why not tail ck? hes been on fire and you have every right to do so and post with the thread.

im not at all saying that people shouldnt post if they tail. its the new guys who tail, cheer, then blast ck when they lose thats no good for this place.

do your thing roag

[Dexter]

you asked me that if i had a problem w/ you to pm you so i would expect you to do the same for me but you call me out and side w/ your buddy from the past when he's lying and twisting the truth.. DO YOU LIST ALL YOUR PLAYS EVERYDAY ON THE BOARD.. NO.. neither do i and the second i mention a reverse parlay on 2 late games i completely get assaulted by that psycopath w/ the serial killers name.. i dont need any of this shit in my life so i will now be leaving the board.. DEXTER AND HIS PSYCHO SHENANIGANS HAS CHASED YET ANOTHER PERSON OFF THIS BOARD.. TOTALLY RIDICULOUS!!!.. FOR ROAG,SHOWTIME AND THE REST OF MY FRIENDS ON HERE WHEN I HAVEA SPECIAL PLAY OR CHOICE DIVIDEND CAPTURES FROM STOCKS I WILL PM YOU IF I HAVE TIME... WHAT I DONT HAVE IS TIME FOR THIS RIDICULOUS CHILDISH BULLSHIT!!!!

dan - why are you saying im lying when even you clearly posted the nats pregame (made no mention of a giants/over play) and then claimed you had the winner when it was 10-4? i dont see how i was lying or why i would lye as we have been cool with each other.

not sure who i "chased" off the board, but i can assure you that ive only had problems with guys who bullshit about their plays in our thread. one thing i am is honest, and i would expect the same from those who post in this thread. i will not mention names but anyone who no longer posts here that ive had a run in with (1 person) was a useless wannabee tout who fudged their records. i dont like that.

no ones telling you to leave the thread as i will never look at your posts anymore - so do as you please.

but to call me a "liar" shows you have no place else to go on this topic.

[showtime2000]

With you showtime. I have Boston and the Wings. These are just the 2 better teams. I can't see the Bruins getting knocked out of the playoffs this early while the Wings have clinched something like 7 or 8 playoff series on the road the past 3 years or some crazy stat like that. They seem to just play more comfortably in these clinching games and let their opponents make the mistakes. Awesome night last night and I hope the destruction of the books continues. GLA

Looking good so far.

[Dexter]

Tuesday-

kershaw has been a different pitcher away from home (10.29/2.00 era/whip in 3 starts) while park has also been bad at home (10.24/2.38 in 2 starts). kershaw got hammered in his only visit to the hitter friendly citizens bank last year.

-phillies -120 (2x)
-over phillies 10.5 (3x)

good spot to play haren at a decent price on the runline

-dbacks -1.5/+120

magic +2 (3x)

[AzNDooM]

Tuesday-

kershaw has been a different pitcher away from home (10.29/2.00 era/whip in 3 starts) while park has also been bad at home (10.24/2.38 in 2 starts). kershaw got hammered in his only visit to the hitter friendly citizens bank last year.

-phillies -120 (2x)
-over phillies 10.5 (3x)

good spot to play haren at a decent price on the runline

-dbacks -1.5/+120

magic +2 (3x)

Finally, Dext puts up his plays. Been waiting all Morning (Australia Time). Going to tail except the Magic Bet only cause you took Boston Yesterday and was on the money. Cant see Magic winning in Boston but like the other bets. Keep them coming.

[texhooper]

The Reds at +175 look pretty good. Owings is facing his former team in a place where he knows how to pitch. Owings is a pretty good hitter too so Haren won't have any easy outs. I know Haren has pitched pretty darn good this year but I can't back Arizona with their pathetic offense. At +175, why not?

kid i took the reds at +180 last night and went to bed thinking i was crazy. good to see you disagree. i'm not as up to date on mlb as i ought to be to spew my opinions, so i've just been laying low. but if you took this, i hope for our sake it cashes. one of two baseball plays i made last night.

[cocknocker]

Burnette is hangin' in there so far!

[texhooper]

Tuesday-



good spot to play haren at a decent price on the runline

-dbacks -1.5/+120

right on dex hahahaha...maybe i was crazy...

[The_Kid]

kid i took the reds at +180 last night and went to bed thinking i was crazy. good to see you disagree. i'm not as up to date on mlb as i ought to be to spew my opinions, so i've just been laying low. but if you took this, i hope for our sake it cashes. one of two baseball plays i made last night.

tex, I've been popping up in this thread every so often with a play here and there but I've been watching plays from CK, Dex, shoe, etc. Haven't had much time either to cap and stuff but I hope this one is a dandy too. I hope Owings is on a mission tonight on the mound and at the plate. Good luck, bud!

[shoebox]

thanks fellas for the reds call onto today

may 12

pitt +1.5 -140 2 units
los/philly Over 10 +100 2 units
det -120 2 units


smash dem books....
shoebox's SBR

[cocknocker]

Burny's mowing 'em down!

[ram1502]

Bruins looking good Shoe! I hope I don't jinx them and us but the Bruins have only lost one game this season when being up 2-0. But I know it won't be that easy. Hell of a penalty kill to end the 1st.

[Dexter]

Finally, Dext puts up his plays. Been waiting all Morning (Australia Time). Going to tail except the Magic Bet only cause you took Boston Yesterday and was on the money. Cant see Magic winning in Boston but like the other bets. Keep them coming.

check the previous days thread for my plays. i'll always post who im playing the night before. i just cut and pasted the above while adding the lines i just got booked at..

i dont like posting at the office...

[cocknocker]

Burny's coming apart at the seams here in the 4th however....

[texhooper]

thanks fellas for the reds call onto today

may 12

pitt +1.5 -140 2 units
los/philly Over 10 +100 2 units
det -120 2 units


smash dem books....
shoebox's SBR

i get it. reds was the call yesterday. whatever. good hit yesterday, man.

[cocknocker]

So much for that money

[ram1502]

So much for that money

It's not over CK but I don't like the way it's looking. It looks like Halladay is on his way to a 1H CG shutout.