Mr. Crumbs Leans for Monday 5/11/09

[jellobiafra]

If Chipper's out I don't see the Braves scoring the 2 runs necessary to win a RRL wager. You'll see a lineup of Johnson, Escobar, Anderson, McCann, Francoeur, Kotchman, Infante, and Schafer. Ugh. Not exactly murderer's row (even with Chipper mixed in there). 3 right-handed bats and none of them serious power threats.

I can see a 3-1 loss here.

[cocknocker]

That's too funny. You need a crash course for ice action? Just busting your chops - maybe/kinda/sort a . Glad you you cashed, I'm guessing it was at least six bills. Thanks for clearing it up and if you mentioned it earlier my goof.

Crash course fo sho! Yeah man I do. I am less than a novice at hockey wagering. I made a few tailing our resident hockey guy hockeytown11, but I don't have the slightest clue about it.

It's kind of like baseball in the fact a team can give it's best effort and still lose late.

I mean in basketball and football you get a certain amount of points that is commensurate with the type of effort a team usually gives and if taking the dog you have a cushion.

In baseball and hockey it's either or. No extra points (I think someone told me that taking the puck line is a bad idea.). A reliever comes in and pisses on your money. Or a throwing error in the bottom of the 9th. In hockey,a straight up win or loss. Or the game can end on a shootout. A fan inerferes with a fly ball. The batter hits a two run dong the next pitch. And so on..

I love y'all, but I would have to be a student of the game in order to become good at it. I know people with Shark season tickets and they say it's wild. But things happen too fast for me in that sport. Sometimes a score happens and I'm looking at these other two goons on the screen blocking each other. I can't keep up with the puck. I like the board checkin' shit though. And the mid-ice collision.

Baseball is the easiest sport I know of to make money playing. We can link it up and talk about the hockey thing amongst other things. That thing sounds like easy money. I have an email list a mile long.

[ragiche]

2 out of 5 yesterday in baseball.But a perfect 4 of 4 in hoops (THANKS CK).As for the games i'm gonna play today.

Wahoos RL (8x)

Sfo ML (5x)

Cin/Ari Under 9 (2x)

NBA:

Cle -10.5 (3x)

Den/Dal Under 52.5 1st Qtr (12x) To support this play.

(Regular season)

Nov.7 Dal=25/Den=26,=51

Dec.15 Den=27/Dal=15,=42

Jan.13 Dal=26/Den=33,=59

Mar.27 Den=25/Dal=26,=51

(Playoffs)

May 3 Dal=24/Den=16,=40

May 5 Dal=22/Den=30,=52

May 9 Den=20/Dal=20,=40

As you can see that both of this teams scored below 52 pts 6 out of 7 and (3 of 3 played in dal) games when they played each other in 1st qtrs.It's still at 52.5 right now so this is my heaviest play of the day.

GL TA

[macadams]

Looking at the under for Zona v. Reds. D-back winners behind 10 runs against the lowly Nats last night. I looked at their ability to sustain hitting into the night after when they've had a big game, so I've put up all the 7+ run games they've had with their run total for the games after to the right:

9 (in the home opener) then 0 - 2
9 then 2 - 1 - 1
7 then 7 - 0 - 2 -0
7 then 3
10 then 1 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 (yup, that happened)

John Garland has a 2.0 ERA in his three last night games (3-0)
Garland dominant last game (although against a tepid SD) and strong the outing before that one again. Seems like he's found it. Now, throw in the ballpark and consider the under has payed 13 times of Arizona's last 15 against Cincinnati.

But that's all meaningless if you don't buy Bronson Arroyo as a bounceback pitcher (seeing as he gave up nine runs in ONE INNING last time around) and I think he has a tough mind, his carpal tunnel means 5 days rest is MUCH better than 4 (which he had before the MIL game in which he gave up the 9) and he should have a major chip on his shoulder. I haven't been able to find out how he does after a loss, but aside from that period where he hadn't yet adjusted to the weakness from the carpal I seem to remember that he does come back well from losses. But that's from memory and I urge you to check it before you make up your mind. The under looks tempting.

Mets game with strong under feeling to it also...what you guys think?

[cocknocker]

Hey CK im using

http://www.twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

to know where the public is betting do you have a better place to chek it because i only see the ML bet'S

I like Sportsinsights, WinningEdge.com and the Spread.com.

I compare power money rankings with the initial public offering (stock boys know what that is) and then I look at EARLY reverse movement. Then I look up what the favored pitchers record is in the last 10 games where he is -150 or more and then I look up the dog pitchers' record in games as a +130 or more dog for the same amount of games at the number. I hopefully can find a bad loss by the underdog pitcher to the team they're facing in the previous matchup. Even better if he has lost the last time he pitched prior to the current day's matchup. Then I will go HEAVY. If I catch that favored -150 pitcher with a less than .500 record as a pitcher in this circumstance then I'm going to lay it.

That's how Santana fell into an autofade today. He has a negative record over his past 10 games being favored by more than -150 let alone -170. Derek Lowe has a nice record as a dog of +160.

[macadams]

When would ManRam have to have done that fertilizer to be "Due in October"?

Seriously folks, you've been a great audience...

[RoagBettor]

The Machine is ALL-IN on the Mets tonight.

CK is on the Braves.

Should be interesting!

[macadams]

You can't play the Indians with Pavano, because the Indians bully is so so-so. I'm going to parlay Floyd (line is SO tempting) with Santana and the Unit IF Chipper is out. SF bullpen is solid so I don't think it is too big of a deal they went extended innings yesterday, their 2 out of 3 against LAD give them a nice lift and Randy is fast approaching history (not that he's not already a HOF-er, but 300...that's special, he wants it). Johan has been very good, mets are hitting, and they close out games this year.

Then I'm going to think about what it is going to look like when Derek Fisher tries to guard Chauncy Billups.

[ebbearsfb1]

braves, and the under???

interesting fact 95.4% of the public is on the mets in espn streak for the cash....98 was on the lakers yesterday..... you know what that means

[Ringo]

Hey **, I must say that I am a bit surprised you are playing the RL on the indians with Pavano pitching tonight. I assume you are banking on a high scoring affair because I find it hard to believe you are thinking he will shut down the wsox offense. That being said, what are youre thoughts on the taking the over 9.5 tonight?

[laxdjock]

I'm a bit worried about Pavano, but I think the Tribe's bats will put them over the top.

[abev]

That's how Santana fell into an autofade today. He has a negative record over his past 10 games being favored by more than -150 let alone -170. Derek Lowe has a nice record as a dog of +160.

CN that was sick - good read.

[cohen59]

I like Sportsinsights, WinningEdge.com and the Spread.com.

I compare power money rankings with the initial public offering (stock boys know what that is) and then I look at EARLY reverse movement. Then I look up what the favored pitchers record is in the last 10 games where he is -150 or more and then I look up the dog pitchers' record in games as a +130 or more dog for the same amount of games at the number. I hopefully can find a bad loss by the underdog pitcher to the team they're facing in the previous matchup. Even better if he has lost the last time he pitched prior to the current day's matchup. Then I will go HEAVY. If I catch that favored -150 pitcher with a less than .500 record as a pitcher in this circumstance then I'm going to lay it.

That's how Santana fell into an autofade today. He has a negative record over his past 10 games being favored by more than -150 let alone -170. Derek Lowe has a nice record as a dog of +160.

Serious shit right there gotta love it!!! Now lets get the W!!

[danrman]

hey ck or anybody can you gimme the site where i can find a pitchers record in the various parks... its easy to find the record against the team but i want the record vs. the team home and away separated.. thanks

[danrman]

im likin cleve (big),braves,ariz,wash...

[macadams]

Kershaw, Jurrjens and Parra (my boy) --- I like the card for t'morrow, lots of intriguing matchups...

[BmoreBucco]

Prop of the Day:

Carlos Beltran over 2.5 hits/runs/rbi's (-130)


Also

[Flyers09]

thanks for the plays CK i check your plays daily and compare to mine, and helps out A LOT!

[macadams]

I played NYM, SF & CWS (5.56 to 1) - hoping for the 'fecta. Good luck tonite guys hope stuff cashes for you!

[t-bone]

2 out of 5 yesterday in baseball.But a perfect 4 of 4 in hoops (THANKS CK).As for the games i'm gonna play today.

Wahoos RL (8x)

Sfo ML (5x)

Cin/Ari Under 9 (2x)

NBA:

Cle -10.5 (3x)

Den/Dal Under 52.5 1st Qtr (12x) To support this play.

(Regular season)

Nov.7 Dal=25/Den=26,=51

Dec.15 Den=27/Dal=15,=42

Jan.13 Dal=26/Den=33,=59

Mar.27 Den=25/Dal=26,=51

(Playoffs)

May 3 Dal=24/Den=16,=40

May 5 Dal=22/Den=30,=52

May 9 Den=20/Dal=20,=40

As you can see that both of this teams scored below 52 pts 6 out of 7 and (3 of 3 played in dal) games when they played each other in 1st qtrs.It's still at 52.5 right now so this is my heaviest play of the day.

GL TA

This is great capping here, nice work!


My leans for tonight:

Cavs/Hawks OVER 45.5 1st QTR
MLB UNDER 36.5 RUNS

[TodaysAction]

The Machine is ALL-IN on the Mets tonight.

CK is on the Braves.

Should be interesting!

Going "ALL-IN" is not a smart way to wager imho - doesn't matter if it's $100, $1,000, $10,000 or other amount. No matter how you slice it, there's still only a 50% of being correct.

[RoagBettor]

TA, I agree, but as a "Roag" Bettor I can't criticize him. I'm on the Braves so I hope he loses, but it's nothing personal.

[TodaysAction]

Crash course fo sho! Yeah man I do. I am less than a novice at hockey wagering. I made a few tailing our resident hockey guy hockeytown11, but I don't have the slightest clue about it.

It's kind of like baseball in the fact a team can give it's best effort and still lose late.

I mean in basketball and football you get a certain amount of points that is commensurate with the type of effort a team usually gives and if taking the dog you have a cushion.

In baseball and hockey it's either or. No extra points (I think someone told me that taking the puck line is a bad idea.). A reliever comes in and pisses on your money. Or a throwing error in the bottom of the 9th. In hockey,a straight up win or loss. Or the game can end on a shootout. A fan inerferes with a fly ball. The batter hits a two run dong the next pitch. And so on..

I love y'all, but I would have to be a student of the game in order to become good at it. I know people with Shark season tickets and they say it's wild. But things happen too fast for me in that sport. Sometimes a score happens and I'm looking at these other two goons on the screen blocking each other. I can't keep up with the puck. I like the board checkin' shit though. And the mid-ice collision.

Baseball is the easiest sport I know of to make money playing. We can link it up and talk about the hockey thing amongst other things. That thing sounds like easy money. I have an email list a mile long.

This will be one of many of the summer projects I'll be working on. Remind me about half way through diamond season in case I forget.

I like Sportsinsights, WinningEdge.com and the Spread.com.

I compare power money rankings with the initial public offering (stock boys know what that is) and then I look at EARLY reverse movement. Then I look up what the favored pitchers record is in the last 10 games where he is -150 or more and then I look up the dog pitchers' record in games as a +130 or more dog for the same amount of games at the number. I hopefully can find a bad loss by the underdog pitcher to the team they're facing in the previous matchup. Even better if he has lost the last time he pitched prior to the current day's matchup. Then I will go HEAVY. If I catch that favored -150 pitcher with a less than .500 record as a pitcher in this circumstance then I'm going to lay it.

That's how Santana fell into an autofade today. He has a negative record over his past 10 games being favored by more than -150 let alone -170. Derek Lowe has a nice record as a dog of +160.

[Vonnegut]

I have no idea why someone would go all in -170 on a single baseball game, but I like the Mets tonight too, they are rolling and I think Santana keeps them rolling.
Good luck to you fellas on the Braves play, under more normal circumstances I would probably take a bit off that sweet +170 as well.

[showtime2000]

Puck play tonight,

Washington +130 (dream matchup for NHL to have their 2 best players playing in a game 7)



GLA

[TodaysAction]

TA, I agree, but as a "Roag" Bettor I can't criticize him. I'm on the Braves so I hope he loses, but it's nothing personal.

RoagBettor,

No issue with your remarks as although not posted as of "now" I too am on ATL (but it's not all on ATL, some stems from being against the METS).

[TodaysAction]

I have no idea why someone would go all in -170 on a single baseball game, but I like the Mets tonight too, they are rolling and I think Santana keeps them rolling.
Good luck to you fellas on the Braves play, under more normal circumstances I would probably take a bit off that sweet +170 as well.

I get why people are on the METS and I'm fine with that. The concern is going ALL-IN - it's the fastest way to potentially empty your account(s).

Puck play tonight,

Washington +130 (dream matchup for NHL to have their 2 best players playing in a game 7)

GLA

GL with your selection.

[laxdjock]

Never go all in on anything, period. BOL to people riding big. I put a larger bet on some laker games this week, and got screwed each time.

[showtime2000]

Thanks TodayAction's! GL to you aswell! Looking forward to your NHL threads for next season!

[ram1502]

Not playing any pucks tonight TA? I'm on the Caps and the Blackhawks but I was curious to see your take on these 2 games. I just don't think Ovechkin/the NHL will let the Pens beat the Caps in 6 games and I just can't see the Canucks maintaining the amazing energy they have had for a large part of the series. Chicago takes care of business at home IMO and the Caps win a close one, quite possibly an OT win. Go Caps and Hawks. GL no matter who you choose.

[Dexter]

hey ck or anybody can you gimme the site where i can find a pitchers record in the various parks... its easy to find the record against the team but i want the record vs. the team home and away separated.. thanks

i use fantasy.sportingnews.com, but am paid member...so not sure if thats why i get the info.

try it and let me know..

[mcbaseball10]

hey ck or anybody can you gimme the site where i can find a pitchers record in the various parks... its easy to find the record against the team but i want the record vs. the team home and away separated.. thanks

CBSSPORTS.com

Do a search for the player. It has situational breakdowns for past 6 years including stadiums

[Dexter]

monday-

braves+1.5/-130 (2x) - Autobet with the total at 7.5 or <
giants -150 - going to fade cabrera who has a whip in his last 3 of 2.20
indians - 130 - going to fade floyd who has a whip in his last 3 of 2.22

cavs -10 (3x)



*posted the below late last night to reduce my daily auto plays

AutoBet Adjustments to reduce my daily plays:

-i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline.

- i will play 2x or more on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

-i will play 3x or more against any pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.80 or > in his last 3 starts - as long as the opposing team is -150 or < on the ML and the opposing pitcher has a WHIP of 1.00 or < in his last 3 starts.

-i will play 2x or more on the over in any game where both pitchers have a WHIP of 1.80 or > in the last 3 starts.

*so what im doing is cutting out autoplays on a guy who has a whip of 1 or < in his last 3, or against a guy with a whip of 1.80 or > in his last 3. i will still likely make plays on these games, just not autobets as it caused too many plays for my style even though im 100% behind the logic

[TodaysAction]

Thanks TodayAction's! GL to you aswell! Looking forward to your NHL threads for next season!

Looks like you're doing well too. Well done. As I am as I now have a CHIP on my shoulder (something to prove to a few assholes as I'm going to bury those phakers).

Not playing any pucks tonight TA? I'm on the Caps and the Blackhawks but I was curious to see your take on these 2 games. I just don't think Ovechkin/the NHL will let the Pens beat the Caps in 6 games and I just can't see the Canucks maintaining the amazing energy they have had for a large part of the series. Chicago takes care of business at home IMO and the Caps win a close one, quite possibly an OT win. Go Caps and Hawks. GL no matter who you choose.

Correct - passing on pucks as I want to watch MNB. I'll record the game but view it later. Hope your ticket(s) cash for you.

[Dexter]

i got some inside info folks that cleve is a really good play for tomorrow.. i suggest playing it if the pitching matchup stays the same

this kind of talk is what makes you so special dan. lol

disclose your info with us...

are you thinking about going tout on us with this kinda talk?