MLB - Wednesday, 8/31/16

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Wednesday

White Sox +116 (Heritage)
Athletics / Astros UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Marlins / Mets UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
Twins / Indians UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)


YTD: 379-390-20, -0.85

[Nateboogy]

I see under 8 even Indians. Playable or wait?

[JJJ]

surprised no play on the rays today

[trobin31]

Cleveland -311
Washington -201
Dodgers -180 (Stripling)
Houston -185
Angels -160
Tampa -155

I have a pretty ridiculous line disparity on boston/tampa so expect that line to move significantly....

[pilebuck13]

What's you model got on Seattle?

[LT Profits]

I see under 8 even Indians. Playable or wait?

Actually no, the 8.5 was key there. I get 7.5

[LT Profits]

surprised no play on the rays today

Rays are on my radar, but like trobin31 I also get a big disparity and I hate large variance. I only get Boston 55% (-122)!

[LT Profits]

What's you model got on Seattle?

Seattle 57% (-133)

I hate the suspiciously low line and I hate the movement even more.

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Houston 68% (-213)
San Francisco 63% (-170)
Washington 63% (-170)
Angels 62% (-163)
Cleveland 77% (-335)
Cubs 64% (-178)
Dodgers 65% (-186) (Game #2 - Hill vs. Hoffman)

[trobin31]

Rays are on my radar, but like trobin31 I also get a big disparity and I hate large variance. I only get Boston 55% (-122)!

Yeah i think I found the reason and might have a lot to do with the umpire ?!

[LT Profits]

For me it is simply Smyly having good peripherals relative to his mediocre surface stats and Wright being the polar opposite.

[mikefan1034]

91 units last year tells me it was a fluke

[pilebuck13]

What u got on total Oakland Houston I got 10.5...agree with Mariners line although I feel books and most giving Texas a lot of respect hence low line

[trobin31]

For me it is simply Smyly having good peripherals relative to his mediocre surface stats and Wright being the polar opposite.

I have lots of trouble with predictability of knuckle ballers due to their inherently low strikeout to walk ratios.

ONE thing I've played around with is changing the coefficients for hard contact, swinging strikes and WPA to make up for this along with other low strike out type pitchers like Marco Estrada, Colby Lewis etc but having mixed results.

Just seems like no matter how well a knuckler pitches there is gonna be a higher than avg amount of walks driving their perioherals out of whack even though his stuff might be unhittable.

[LT Profits]

What u got on total Oakland Houston I got 10.5...agree with Mariners line although I feel books and most giving Texas a lot of respect hence low line

We are not close, I get 7.6 in Houston. And I see RLM with 67% on Seattle.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Wednesday

White Sox +116 (Heritage)
Athletics / Astros UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
Mets-119 (Heritage)
Marlins / Mets UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
Twins / Indians UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)

[pilebuck13]

Thanks T

[Rich Boy]

What are you getting on Stl, KC, and Atl MLs?

[LT Profits]

What are you getting on Stl, KC, and Atl MLs?

St. Louis 57% (-133)
Kansas City 54% (-117)
Atlanta 59% (-144)

[LT Profits]

NO ACTION on Mets and Mets UNDER due to pitching change, now down to 3 plays.

[GreatWallofTrump]

If you played all your 60% ers you would be up. All won today.

[Lily Blackwell]

If you played all your 60% ers you would be up. All won today.

"You would be up" you can say that about anything.

[GreatWallofTrump]

"You would be up" you can say that about anything.

Lt is "not up" he keeps playing "value" games that his model calculates - But he stays away from heavy favs. His 60% group are the heavy favs and he stays away from them most of the time.