MLB - Wednesday, 8/31/16

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Wednesday, 8/31/16
    4 MLB Plays Wednesday

    White Sox +116 (Heritage)
    Athletics / Astros UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Marlins / Mets UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Twins / Indians UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)


    YTD: 379-390-20, -0.85
  • Nateboogy
    SBR High Roller
    • 03-13-14
    • 167

    #2
    I see under 8 even Indians. Playable or wait?
    Comment
    • JJJ
      SBR MVP
      • 05-03-11
      • 2610

      #3
      surprised no play on the rays today
      Comment
      • trobin31
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-09-14
        • 9853

        #4
        Cleveland -311
        Washington -201
        Dodgers -180 (Stripling)
        Houston -185
        Angels -160
        Tampa -155

        I have a pretty ridiculous line disparity on boston/tampa so expect that line to move significantly....
        Comment
        • pilebuck13
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 05-15-15
          • 17918

          #5
          What's you model got on Seattle?
          Comment
          • LT Profits
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-27-06
            • 90963

            #6
            Originally posted by Nateboogy
            I see under 8 even Indians. Playable or wait?
            Actually no, the 8.5 was key there. I get 7.5
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              Originally posted by JJJ
              surprised no play on the rays today
              Rays are on my radar, but like trobin31 I also get a big disparity and I hate large variance. I only get Boston 55% (-122)!
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #8
                Originally posted by pilebuck13
                What's you model got on Seattle?
                Seattle 57% (-133)

                I hate the suspiciously low line and I hate the movement even more.
                Comment
                • LT Profits
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-27-06
                  • 90963

                  #9
                  60%ers:

                  Houston 68% (-213)
                  San Francisco 63% (-170)
                  Washington 63% (-170)
                  Angels 62% (-163)
                  Cleveland 77% (-335)
                  Cubs 64% (-178)
                  Dodgers 65% (-186) (Game #2 - Hill vs. Hoffman)
                  Comment
                  • trobin31
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-09-14
                    • 9853

                    #10
                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                    Rays are on my radar, but like trobin31 I also get a big disparity and I hate large variance. I only get Boston 55% (-122)!
                    Yeah i think I found the reason and might have a lot to do with the umpire ?!
                    Comment
                    • LT Profits
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-27-06
                      • 90963

                      #11
                      For me it is simply Smyly having good peripherals relative to his mediocre surface stats and Wright being the polar opposite.
                      Comment
                      • mikefan1034
                        SBR MVP
                        • 08-29-12
                        • 2448

                        #12
                        91 units last year tells me it was a fluke
                        Comment
                        • pilebuck13
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 05-15-15
                          • 17918

                          #13
                          What u got on total Oakland Houston I got 10.5...agree with Mariners line although I feel books and most giving Texas a lot of respect hence low line
                          Comment
                          • trobin31
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 01-09-14
                            • 9853

                            #14
                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                            For me it is simply Smyly having good peripherals relative to his mediocre surface stats and Wright being the polar opposite.
                            I have lots of trouble with predictability of knuckle ballers due to their inherently low strikeout to walk ratios.

                            ONE thing I've played around with is changing the coefficients for hard contact, swinging strikes and WPA to make up for this along with other low strike out type pitchers like Marco Estrada, Colby Lewis etc but having mixed results.

                            Just seems like no matter how well a knuckler pitches there is gonna be a higher than avg amount of walks driving their perioherals out of whack even though his stuff might be unhittable.
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              Originally posted by pilebuck13
                              What u got on total Oakland Houston I got 10.5...agree with Mariners line although I feel books and most giving Texas a lot of respect hence low line
                              We are not close, I get 7.6 in Houston. And I see RLM with 67% on Seattle.
                              Comment
                              • LT Profits
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-27-06
                                • 90963

                                #16
                                1 MLB Addition

                                5 MLB Plays Wednesday

                                White Sox +116 (Heritage)
                                Athletics / Astros UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
                                Mets-119 (Heritage)
                                Marlins / Mets UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
                                Twins / Indians UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
                                Comment
                                • pilebuck13
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 05-15-15
                                  • 17918

                                  #17
                                  Thanks T
                                  Comment
                                  • Rich Boy
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-01-09
                                    • 9714

                                    #18
                                    What are you getting on Stl, KC, and Atl MLs?
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Rich Boy
                                      What are you getting on Stl, KC, and Atl MLs?
                                      St. Louis 57% (-133)
                                      Kansas City 54% (-117)
                                      Atlanta 59% (-144)
                                      Comment
                                      • LT Profits
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-27-06
                                        • 90963

                                        #20
                                        NO ACTION on Mets and Mets UNDER due to pitching change, now down to 3 plays.
                                        Comment
                                        • GreatWallofTrump
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 02-27-16
                                          • 729

                                          #21
                                          If you played all your 60% ers you would be up. All won today.
                                          Comment
                                          • Lily Blackwell
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 08-25-16
                                            • 105

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by GreatWallofTrump
                                            If you played all your 60% ers you would be up. All won today.
                                            "You would be up" you can say that about anything.
                                            Comment
                                            • GreatWallofTrump
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 02-27-16
                                              • 729

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Lily Blackwell
                                              "You would be up" you can say that about anything.
                                              Lt is "not up" he keeps playing "value" games that his model calculates - But he stays away from heavy favs. His 60% group are the heavy favs and he stays away from them most of the time.
                                              Comment
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