MLB - Saturday, 7/23/16

[LT Profits]

6 MLB Plays Saturday

Mariners +127 (Heritage)
Brewers +152 (Heritage)
Tigers +162 (Heritage)
Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rays -101 (Heritage)


YTD: 288-292-13, +5.84

[RavensFan2k3]

Dodgers

Rays made me so mad yesterday, don't want to back them today

[funnyb25]

I actually like the brewers

[LT Profits]

Dodgers

Rays made me so mad yesterday, don't want to back them today

I have been doing well in Rays games lately both with sides and totals. I passed on their game yesterday.

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 60% (-150)
Washington 76% (-317)
Boston 71% (-245)
Miami 61% (-156)
Houston 65% (-186)
Colorado 65% (-186)

[LT Profits]

I have been doing well in Rays games lately both with sides and totals. I passed on their game yesterday.

8-0 run in games involving the Rays

[funnyb25]

8-0 run in games involving the Rays

Right, but Smyly today will be an issue on the road...

[HeeluvaGuy]

Can you explain the Dodgers pick/line? Their bullpen has pitched 12.2 innings in the past 2 days. Maeda is averaging less than 6 IP per start. In his last start he gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings against AZ. Leake has only given up 2 runs combined in his last two starts, and the Dodgers regulars (except Turner) haven't had much success against him. Plus, and I know you famously don't care but, the Cards are 6-2 since the break (Dodgers are 3-5).

Where do you see àn edge for LA? Thanks

[funnyb25]

Can you explain the Dodgers pick/line? Their bullpen has pitched 12.2 innings in the past 2 days. Maeda is averaging less than 6 IP per start. In his last start he gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings against AZ. Leake has only given up 2 runs combined in his last two starts, and the Dodgers regulars (except Turner) haven't had much success against him. Plus, and I know you famously don't care but, the Cards are 6-2 since the break (Dodgers are 3-5).

Where do you see àn edge for LA? Thanks

I'm hoping it's a fade on Leake...I think LEake is garbage as well...

[44 Mag]

6 MLB Plays Saturday

Mariners +127 (Heritage)
Brewers +152 (Heritage)
Tigers +162 (Heritage)
Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rays -101 (Heritage)


YTD: 288-292-13, +5.84

LT, back in the profit margin. Expecting a big day today, lot's of selections. GL to you.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm hoping it's a fade on Leake...I think LEake is garbage as well...

Maybe so, but Leake has 21 Ks and 0 BBs in his last 2 starts. Maeda has 8 games this season where he pitched 5 or less innings. His numbers fall off drastically when he faces batters the 3rd time through the lineup, which is exactly what the Dodgers need him to do today with the stressed out pen.

I'm not saying the Dodgers can't win - it's baseball, just about anything can happen. I'm just curious why their favored and where LT sees value because this line and pick surprised me.

Here are Maeda's splits based on times through the order:

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+
1st PA in G as SP	19	171	154	12	28	6	0	3	0	0	13	47	3.62	0.182	0.257	0.279	0.537	43	2	3	0	1	0	0	0.238	70
2nd PA in G as SP	19	171	158	12	31	3	0	5	0	0	12	48	4	0.196	0.257	0.31	0.567	49	3	1	0	0	2	1	0.248	79
3rd PA in G as SP	17	94	86	14	29	5	1	3	0	1	7	17	2.43	0.337	0.394	0.523	0.917	45	2	1	0	0	1	0	0.394	188
4th+ PA in G as SP	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		1	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	536

[LT Profits]

Can you explain the Dodgers pick/line? Their bullpen has pitched 12.2 innings in the past 2 days. Maeda is averaging less than 6 IP per start. In his last start he gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings against AZ. Leake has only given up 2 runs combined in his last two starts, and the Dodgers regulars (except Turner) haven't had much success against him. Plus, and I know you famously don't care but, the Cards are 6-2 since the break (Dodgers are 3-5).

Where do you see àn edge for LA? Thanks

Leake is below average while Maeda is safely above thanks to an excellent ratio of 9.33 strikeouts vs. 2.67 walks per nine innings. Maeda also has a 3.04 xFIP vs. right-handed batters compared to 4.62 vs. lefties, and outside of Matt Adams the Cards have predominantly a right-handed lineup these days. He has the potential to go 7 innings tonight, model has him going 6.1 innings. And I have no problem with Roberts giving Liberatore a save chance if he does not want to use Jansen.

[LT Profits]

Leake is below average while Maeda is safely above thanks to an excellent ratio of 9.33 strikeouts vs. 2.67 walks per nine innings. Maeda also has a 3.04 xFIP vs. right-handed batters compared to 4.62 vs. lefties, and outside of Matt Adams the Cards have predominantly a right-handed lineup these days. He has the potential to go 7 innings tonight, model has him going 6.1 innings. And I have no problem with Roberts giving Liberatore a save chance if he does not want to use Jansen.

Also model has Dodgers 57% (-133)

[44 Mag]

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 60% (-150)
Washington 76% (-317)
Boston 71% (-245)
Miami 61% (-156)
Houston 65% (-186)
Colorado 65% (-186)

Any insight for us on the Boston game & the Colorado game. Never sure we can trust Price, and Wisler's Mother has been getting shelled. THX.

[7777KaL]

6 MLB Plays Saturday

Mariners +127 (Heritage)
Brewers +152 (Heritage)
Tigers +162 (Heritage)
Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rays -101 (Heritage)


YTD: 288-292-13, +5.84

0-6 today guys, let's get it.. Rah..

[HeeluvaGuy]

Leake is below average while Maeda is safely above thanks to an excellent ratio of 9.33 strikeouts vs. 2.67 walks per nine innings. Maeda also has a 3.04 xFIP vs. right-handed batters compared to 4.62 vs. lefties, and outside of Matt Adams the Cards have predominantly a right-handed lineup these days. He has the potential to go 7 innings tonight, model has him going 6.1 innings. And I have no problem with Roberts giving Liberatore a save chance if he does not want to use Jansen.

Thanks for the response. I'm on the other side, but I appreciate the discussion. Maeda has gone 7 only twice all season, and when he gets there his numbers are pretty shaky:

Split	G	IP	ER	ERA	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+
7th inning	7	4.1	4	8.31	20	20	2	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	4		0.4	0.4	0.45	0.85	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	169

As for Liberatore, he has pitched the last two days. He has pitched 3 consecutive days three times this season. The first time he gave up a hit and 2 BBs in 1 IP in the third game (no runs scored though). The second time he pitched just .1 IP in the third game. The third he walked a guy and that was it. Situationally, I think this is a bad spot for LA, but I've certainly been wrong before and will certainly be wrong in the future.

[LT Profits]

Thanks for the response. I'm on the other side, but I appreciate the discussion. Maeda has gone 7 only twice all season, and when he gets there his numbers are pretty shaky:

Split	G	IP	ER	ERA	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+
7th inning	7	4.1	4	8.31	20	20	2	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	4		0.4	0.4	0.45	0.85	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	169

As for Liberatore, he has pitched the last two days. He has pitched 3 consecutive days three times this season. The first time he gave up a hit and 2 BBs in 1 IP in the third game (no runs scored though). The second time he pitched just .1 IP in the third game. The third he walked a guy and that was it. Situationally, I think this is a bad spot for LA, but I've certainly been wrong before and will certainly be wrong in the future.

But Liberatore only threw 12 pitches each of last two days, more likely to come back in a pinch than Jansen.

[44 Mag]

Any insight for us on the Boston game & the Colorado game. Never sure we can trust Price, and Wisler's Mother has been getting shelled. THX.

Well ???? I am on the shunned list ???? LOL.

[Brock Landers]

Leake is below average while Maeda is safely above thanks to an excellent ratio of 9.33 strikeouts vs. 2.67 walks per nine innings. Maeda also has a 3.04 xFIP vs. right-handed batters compared to 4.62 vs. lefties, and outside of Matt Adams the Cards have predominantly a right-handed lineup these days. He has the potential to go 7 innings tonight, model has him going 6.1 innings. And I have no problem with Roberts giving Liberatore a save chance if he does not want to use Jansen.

You think leake is below avg???

Have you given two seconds to look at his recent#'s???

You don't know shit pal

[LT Profits]

You think leake is below avg???

Have you given two seconds to look at his recent#'s???

You don't know shit pal

Overall is all that matters unless there is a bona fide reason for the improvement. I see none for Leake so it is probably just simple variance.

[Brock Landers]

Overall is all that matters unless there is a bona fide reason for the improvement. I see none for Leake so it is probably just simple variance.

Total bullshit

[juicername]

Total bullshit

So despite having a career ERA just south of four and averaging 6.12 Ks per game, all of a sudden Leake has turned into a 1.38 ERA stud averaging 10 Ks per game because that's his stats over the last two? Why the transformation in your opinion? I'm always looking to learn so please enlighten me.

[Brock Landers]

So despite having a career ERA just south of four and averaging 6.12 Ks per game, all of a sudden Leake has turned into a 1.38 ERA stud averaging 10 Ks per game because that's his stats over the last two? Why the transformation in your opinion? I'm always looking to learn so please enlighten me.

He's hot, nothing more than that. And there's no reason St Louis should be home dogs to a team they own in recent years, none

[LT Profits]

He's hot, nothing more than that. And there's no reason St Louis should be home dogs to a team they own in recent years, none

And thus he was overvalued today, which is why I got Dodgers -116 when model has -133. And lo and behold, Dodgers are now up to -129 at Pinny. But you are too short-sighted to see the relevance in any of that. If Dodgers close at -129, I have already won even if they lose today because I am in a +EV position long-term.

[44 Mag]

Hey man, when you are done fighting with him, can you get to my question??? THX.

[funnyb25]

Hey man, when you are done fighting with him, can you get to my question??? THX.

professionals don't fight with losers...i dont understand what he a trying to prove in these threads with him..

[Brock Landers]

And thus he was overvalued today, which is why I got Dodgers -116 when model has -133. And lo and behold, Dodgers are now up to -129 at Pinny. But you are too short-sighted to see the relevance in any of that. If Dodgers close at -129, I have already won even if they lose today because I am in a +EV position long-term.

Keep touting that bullshit, even if they lose I win.

Dumbest thing I've ever heard, yet you'll be happy to lose

[44 Mag]

Man you two must be good friends !!! I can't even get him to answer one question ???? BOL today to you.

[LT Profits]

Keep touting that bullshit, even if they lose I win.

Dumbest thing I've ever heard, yet you'll be happy to lose

What I am saying is anyone that consistently gets -116 on games that close at -129 in an efficient market is going to win in the long run. Again, points to difference of our philosophies. I bet every day of my life so I am always thinking long term. You always think short term and are a long term loser because of it. But that's OK. the next time you tap out, you will just steal some more money from a poor cashier.

[LT Profits]

Any insight for us on the Boston game & the Colorado game. Never sure we can trust Price, and Wisler's Mother has been getting shelled. THX.

Now, where were we?

As you see, I have both Boston and Colorado as high 60%ers. I still like Price, especially at home, and Anderson has been very impressive pitching in the altitude. I wouldn't bet either one though because of the odds.

[dirtycash66]

Wow this is the first time I've ever seen LT fight back against the trolls get em LT. #GLOVESOFF

[44 Mag]

Now, where were we?

As you see, I have both Boston and Colorado as high 60%ers. I still like Price, especially at home, and Anderson has been very impressive pitching in the altitude. I wouldn't bet either one though because of the odds.

Thanks LT. Hope you SWEEP today !!!!!

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Additions

8 MLB Plays Saturday

Mariners +127 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks -124 (Bookmaker)
Brewers +152 (Heritage)
Tigers +162 (Heritage)
Dodgers -116 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Rangers / Royals OVER 4.5 -115 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Rays -101 (Heritage)

[funnyb25]

Grandslammmmm Nellyyyyyy

[RavensFan2k3]

I have been doing well in Rays games lately both with sides and totals. I passed on their game yesterday.

I may tail you on that one. How do you feel about Pittsburgh's Tyler Glasnow?

Also like Arizona