MLB - Friday, 7/1/16

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Friday

Rays +107 (Heritage)
White Sox / Astros UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Brewers / Cardinals UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)


YTD: 233-249-10, -9.26

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Washington 66% (-194)
Boston 62% (-163)
Houston 66% (-194)
St. Louis 63% (-170)
San Francisco 62% (-163)
Oakland 60% (-150)

Yes I am aware that the Angels have apparent value vs. Boston, but I am just not sure if I want to bet them yet.

[innovation]

Mets by a crooked number

side with you on Rays as well

GL LT

[RavensFan2k3]

Mets by a crooked number

side with you on Rays as well

GL LT

Mets you say? Also Royals

[LT Profits]

Model loved Mets last night and I ignored it because of extreme variance, but tonight it has Cubs 52% (-108)

Model almost never likes the Royals and tonight is no exception, Kansas City only 51% (-104)

[jz833]

What does model show on Indians/bluejays

[PorkChop]

Love the Under 9 in Houston.

No reason WhiteSox should be +150 either.

[LT Profits]

What does model show on Indians/bluejays

Toronto 51% (-104)

I am not crazy about real line running away so much from Cleveland model number though.

[funnyb25]

Called it....smyly...

[funnyb25]

Will this be smyly's 5th start so u review him after and get him the fock out of your predicted auto plays? Lol

[gpet1984]

You realize you look like a fool blasting a play LT has a substantial edge on. If the line closed this moment I'd be dying to get that price on TB.

[funnyb25]

You realize you look like a fool blasting a play LT has a substantial edge on. If the line closed this moment I'd be dying to get that price on TB.

You new to the thread? Welcome man...BOL on all your plays

[gpet1984]

You new to the thread? Welcome man...BOL on all your plays

Really not new followed him over last 3 years just don't post much. Don't see the point of blasting plays that 70 percent of the time beat the close. It's like seeing a sale in the store and saying your getting ripped off. BOL to you as well its all about winning money not bashing people!

[funnyb25]

He beats the closing number more like 90% of the time and down 10 units...lol

[RavensFan2k3]

Really not new followed him over last 3 years just don't post much. Don't see the point of blasting plays that 70 percent of the time beat the close. It's like seeing a sale in the store and saying your getting ripped off. BOL to you as well its all about winning money not bashing people!

There's no correlation between beating the closing number and actually winning the bet though. But I guess it's better to lose a bet that's +120 than -120

[LT Profits]

Will this be smyly's 5th start so u review him after and get him the fock out of your predicted auto plays? Lol

He actually looks pretty good to me except for the home runs allowed, which is the sole reason for his struggles. The guy is combining an excellent strikeout rate of 10.04 per nine innings with a good walk rate of 2.01. Yes the insane 15.8% HR/FB rate is concerning, but you'd figure he would be better at home in a pitcher's park in Tampa and he has been with a home xFIP of 3.41 (vs. 4.25 on the road)

And then there is Fulmer, who I actually like but he is not as good as his Kershaw-like run lately. He has been lucky with an unrealistic 86.2 strand rate so far and he has a relatively low .260 BABIP allowed. His xFIP is only 4.07, which is actually worse than Smyly's overall xFIP of 3.90.

[funnyb25]

I'm not bashing LT as a person. Great guy. Its.more about his stubbornness to adjust to losing with the same pitchers every start.

[gpet1984]

He beats the closing number more like 90% of the time and down 10 units...lol

He can't control what happens all he can control is value and his edge. Come on now I don't know what your value wagering on if you want to go against line movement and closing lines your going to go broke. It's also a third of the season in give it time mathematically hes guaranteed to come out ahead at season end if he continues to have the edge he does. I don't want to argue I just don't get the point of blasting him in his thread.

[gpet1984]

There's no correlation between beating the closing number and actually winning the bet though. But I guess it's better to lose a bet that's +120 than -120

If you can beat Pinnys closing line you have a edge on the bet I'd say 80% of the time and yes that correlates to winning money over the long term. Again not trying to argue I just don't get why people have to blast a guy in his thread he can do what he wants with his money.

[LT Profits]

There's no correlation between beating the closing number and actually winning the bet though. But I guess it's better to lose a bet that's +120 than -120

Maybe not over one bet, but there is if you do it at a high rate over the course of time, which sportsbooks hate.

[funnyb25]

Already know for tomorrow he will be on Phillies or the under or both. Cy Nola pitching. LT's favorite pitcher

[gpet1984]

Maybe not over one bet, but there is if you do it at a high rate over the course of time, which sportsbooks hate.

Thank you

[gpet1984]

Maybe not over one bet, but there is if you do it at a high rate over the course of time, which sportsbooks hate.

What you getting for the Braves. I'm seeing -125 on 1 of my books.

[LT Profits]

What you getting for the Braves. I'm seeing -125 on 1 of my books.

I only get Atlanta 52% (-108) despite a sizable edge in the starting pitcher.

[gpet1984]

I only get Atlanta 52% (-108) despite a sizable edge in the starting pitcher.

yea Nicolino is terrible thats why I asked. ugh

[Nateboogy]

Funnyb, your antics are getting old. You come in here and say the same thing every day. It's HIS system. If you don't like it, go get your own.

[RollinDo]

Going with ChiSox +1.5 and Over 8.5
Also Tigers are strong play.

[MickeyMan]

I'm not bashing LT as a person. Great guy. Its.more about his stubbornness to adjust to losing with the same pitchers every start.

Have you left your computer yet today?

Do you set your alarm to wake up in the mornings before LT starts his thread?

Do you stalk people in real life too?

[funnyb25]

Have you left your computer yet today?

Do you set your alarm to wake up in the mornings before LT starts his thread?

Do you stalk people in real life too?

Wishing you the Bol on your plays today mickeyman!

Busy day at work thus far but getting through it!

[RavensFan2k3]

Maybe not over one bet, but there is if you do it at a high rate over the course of time, which sportsbooks hate.

I do understand that, hence the high volume of plays. How fo you feel about people who spot bet but for large units?

[funnyb25]

Funnyb, your antics are getting old. You come in here and say the same thing every day. It's HIS system. If you don't like it, go get your own.

Wishing you the Bol on your plays today and this 4th of July weekend Nate!

[44 Mag]

Already know for tomorrow he will be on Phillies or the under or both. Cy Nola pitching. LT's favorite pitcher

LOL. They are still letting this guy start???

[funnyb25]

LOL. They are still letting this guy start???

wait for it...

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Additions

5 MLB Plays Friday

Rays +107 (Heritage)
Tigers / Rays UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
White Sox / Astros UNDER 9 -110 (Heritage)
Twins +100 (Heritage)
Brewers / Cardinals UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)

[cankid]

Thanks have a profitable day.