MLB - Friday, 6/24/16

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Friday So Far

Indians -104 (Heritage)
Astros -117 (Heritage)


YTD: 215-237-9, -15.93


Totals still to come

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays

4 MLB Plays Friday

Cubs / Marlins UNDER 7.5 +100 (Bookmaker)
Indians -104 (Heritage)
Astros -117 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Mariners UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)

[PorkChop]

Thought's on these 3:

NYY/Min Under 8.5
Bos/Tex Under 9.5
Hou/KC Under 8.5

TY

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Yankees 65% (-186)
Cubs 64% (-178)
Mets 66% (-194)
Boston 67% (-203)
Washington 62% (-163)
Angels 63% (-170)
San Francisco 65% (-186)

[LT Profits]

Thought's on these 3:

NYY/Min Under 8.5
Bos/Tex Under 9.5
Hou/KC Under 8.5

TY

NYY/Min Under 8.5 - 8.8
Bos/Tex Under 9.5 - 8.7
Hou/KC Under 8.5 - 8.9

Just a lean to the Texas Under.

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Love the Indians and Astros today and will be adding the M's total. BOL

[eddycash]

Why not the Marlins again tonight?

[juicername]

Very surprised you like Astros over Royals today despite Keuchel's struggles. I get it, his numbers suggest that he's bound to turn it around sooner or later, but for now he's a pretty poor pitcher, no? KC so strong at home too. Since you seem to prefer dogs to favorites this seems like an obvious play to take Royals as a home dog .

[LT Profits]

Very surprised you like Astros over Royals today despite Keuchel's struggles. I get it, his numbers suggest that he's bound to turn it around sooner or later, but for now he's a pretty poor pitcher, no? KC so strong at home too. Since you seem to prefer dogs to favorites this seems like an obvious play to take Royals as a home dog .

Combination of both starters expected to regress in opposite directions. Keuchel has a 3.32 xFIP right now, two full runs lower than his ERA. Volquez is basically where he should be with a 4.21 xFIP vs. 4.12 ERA, but I don't like his walk rate of 3.24 per nine.

[funnyb25]

Keuchel is in the same arena as archer with the model. Model doesn't adjust so archer and Keuchel will be a play every start

[LT Profits]

Why not the Marlins again tonight?

See the 60%ers.

[juicername]

Keuchel is in the same arena as archer with the model. Model doesn't adjust so archer and Keuchel will be a play every start

Yeah, feels like a leak to me to be honest. At some point you just have to accept that a guy can't get it done right now.

I guess the advantage of using xFIP etc instead of ERA is that it would suggest that he's surrendered an unreasonable amount of runs considering the amount and kind of hits/walks/homers he's given up, is that kind of the right way to say it LT?

[LT Profits]

Keuchel is in the same arena as archer with the model. Model doesn't adjust so archer and Keuchel will be a play every start

You don't get it, I adjust pitchers every five starts or so and Keuchel has a CURRENT 3.32 xFIP.

Archer is getting up there but still not terrible at 3.60 (vs. 4.70 ERA), thanks to his 10.57 strikeouts per nine. xFIP has higher than past years because he has poor walk rate this year of 3.82.

So bottom like is I AM making adjustments and those two guys do not grade out badly (especially Kuechel), making both PLAY ONS until ERA converges to xFIP. Now does that convergence always happen? Of course not. But it does way more often than not as the innings pile up, which is the beauty of using sabermetrics.

[LT Profits]

I guess the advantage of using xFIP etc instead of ERA is that it would suggest that he's surrendered an unreasonable amount of runs considering the amount and kind of hits/walks/homers he's given up, is that kind of the right way to say it LT?

Exactly, except that xFIP also incorporates fly balls and other factors. FIP is strictly K/BB/HR

[juicername]

Exactly, except that xFIP also incorporates fly balls and other factors. FIP is strictly K/BB/HR

Ah yeah I tried to incorporate fly balls/ground balls etc. by saying which "kind of hits" they given up. I'm still trying to wrap my head around these sabermetrics fully to be honest as these predictive ratings are pretty abstract at first.

[tpark77]

What's your model say about Matz?

[LT Profits]

What's your model say about Matz?

Come on guys!

See the 60%ers.

[LT Profits]

Come on guys!

So Matz actually seems like undervalued favorite if you don't mind -170.

[tpark77]

So Matz actually seems like undervalued favorite if you don't mind -170.

I don't mind the juice just nervous about the mets anemic offense. :/

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Friday

Cubs / Marlins UNDER 7.5 +100 (Bookmaker)
Indians -104 (Heritage)
Astros -117 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks +123 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Mariners UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)

[eddycash]

indians at -117 still good lt?

[Fernburn74]

what do u think of grand salami under 135.5 today

[LT Profits]

indians at -117 still good lt?

No, I get 55% (-122). Need -112 or less.

[LT Profits]

what do u think of grand salami under 135.5 today

FYI, straight sum of model totals is 129.9

I don't know how meaningful that is though.

[Fernburn74]

thanks LT!!!!!!

[RavensFan2k3]

Combination of both starters expected to regress in opposite directions. Keuchel has a 3.32 xFIP right now, two full runs lower than his ERA. Volquez is basically where he should be with a 4.21 xFIP vs. 4.12 ERA, but I don't like his walk rate of 3.24 per nine.

If they would have made him a dog or something then yes, but as a favorite on the road no thanks. Good luck

[RavensFan2k3]

Also how do you rate Jameson Tailon?

[LT Profits]

If they would have made him a dog or something then yes, but as a favorite on the road no thanks. Good luck

After everything shook out, bottom line is model has Astros 57% (-133) so I didn't mind laying -117.

[LT Profits]

Also how do you rate Jameson Tailon?

I have Taillon right at average with a neutral rating of 100. I have Tepesch at 117, meaning he is 17% worse than average pitcher at run suppression. (lower rating is better)

[RavensFan2k3]

I have Taillon right at average with a neutral rating of 100. I have Tepesch at 117, meaning he is 17% worse than average pitcher at run suppression. (lower rating is better)

So given that, you think the line looks right? Where do you have the line at?

[LT Profits]

So given that, you think the line looks right? Where do you have the line at?

There is more to the model line that just starting pitchers, although that is the biggest piece. In this case I get Pittsburgh 56% (-127), so not much to see when compared to real line.

[PorkChop]

LT quick thoughts on Boston/Texas FF U 5, avoid Boston's wonderful bullpen, just deal with Martinez/Price through 5?

[Duke Fan]

Cubs 8 runs in the first

[RavensFan2k3]

Houston!!!! Oh and Cleveland!!

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Stros and tribe babyyyyyyy