MLB - Friday, 6/10/16

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Friday, 6/10/16
    7 MLB Plays Friday

    Phillies / Nationals UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
    Orioles +127 (5 Dimes)
    Athletics / Reds UNDER 9.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Astros -109 (Heritage)
    Astros / Rays UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Indians / Angels UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Dodgers / Giants UNDER 5.5 -110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 175-185-8, -2.88
  • 44 Mag
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 10-14-13
    • 34490

    #2
    Who do you lean to, LAD or SF ??? Just curious.
    Comment
    • juicername
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-14-15
      • 6906

      #3
      Now you didn't ask me obviously, but isn't +1.5 on SF at -133 pretty tempting? I mean, the total is set at 5.5 so Giants could quite possibly cover with just one or two runs scored.
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        60%ers:

        Washington 76% (-317)
        Yankees 63% (-170)
        Cubs 71% (-245)
        White Sox 63% (-170)
        Colorado 62% (-163)
        Arizona 60% (-150)
        Seattle 62% (-163)
        Dodgers 63% (-170)
        Comment
        • LT Profits
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-27-06
          • 90963

          #5
          Originally posted by 44 Mag
          Who do you lean to, LAD or SF ??? Just curious.
          Dodgers 63%, Kershaw is rated THAT much better than the rest of the league. Cueto is actually in the top 10 (I think), and Kershaw still towers over him and it does not help that Giants offense is in shambles these days.
          Comment
          • 44 Mag
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 10-14-13
            • 34490

            #6
            Originally posted by juicername
            Now you didn't ask me obviously, but isn't +1.5 on SF at -133 pretty tempting? I mean, the total is set at 5.5 so Giants could quite possibly cover with just one or two runs scored.
            I suppose, it certainly seems likely with these two pitching. What about the bullpens???
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              Originally posted by juicername
              Now you didn't ask me obviously, but isn't +1.5 on SF at -133 pretty tempting? I mean, the total is set at 5.5 so Giants could quite possibly cover with just one or two runs scored.
              Pass for me and I already explained why. Could just as easily be 3-0 or 3-1.
              Comment
              • 44 Mag
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 10-14-13
                • 34490

                #8
                Sortable Pitching
                RK PLAYER TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L SV BLSV WAR WHIP ERA
                1 Clayton Kershaw LAD 12 12 92.2 54 16 15 6 109 8 1 0 0 3.8 0.65 1.46
                2 Jake Arrieta CHC 12 12 80.0 51 17 16 26 87 9 1 0 0 2.8 0.96 1.80
                3 Madison Bumgarner SF 13 13 86.0 67 23 18 25 99 7 2 0 0 2.6 1.07 1.88
                4 Noah Syndergaard NYM 13 12 76.2 65 19 17 12 95 6 2 0 0 3.0 1.00 2.00
                5 Jon Lester CHC 12 12 78.2 59 19 18 17 78 7 3 0 0 2.3 0.97 2.06
                6 Jason Hammel CHC 11 11 63.0 44 16 15 24 56 7 1 0 0 1.9 1.08 2.14
                7 Johnny Cueto SF 12 12 87.2 73 23 21 19 73 9 1 0 0 2.7 1.05 2.16
                8 Danny Salazar CLE 11 11 68.1 44 17 17 33 81 6 3 0 0 3.0 1.13 2.24
                9 Rich Hill OAK 11 11 64.0 48 19 16 24 74 8 3 0 0 2.4 1.13 2.25
                10 Jose Fernandez MIA 12 12 74.2 54 19 19 25 110 9 2 0 0 2.7 1.06 2.29
                Comment
                • LT Profits
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-27-06
                  • 90963

                  #9
                  Originally posted by 44 Mag
                  Sortable Pitching
                  RK PLAYER TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L SV BLSV WAR WHIP ERA
                  1 Clayton Kershaw LAD 12 12 92.2 54 16 15 6 109 8 1 0 0 3.8 0.65 1.46
                  2 Jake Arrieta CHC 12 12 80.0 51 17 16 26 87 9 1 0 0 2.8 0.96 1.80
                  3 Madison Bumgarner SF 13 13 86.0 67 23 18 25 99 7 2 0 0 2.6 1.07 1.88
                  4 Noah Syndergaard NYM 13 12 76.2 65 19 17 12 95 6 2 0 0 3.0 1.00 2.00
                  5 Jon Lester CHC 12 12 78.2 59 19 18 17 78 7 3 0 0 2.3 0.97 2.06
                  6 Jason Hammel CHC 11 11 63.0 44 16 15 24 56 7 1 0 0 1.9 1.08 2.14
                  7 Johnny Cueto SF 12 12 87.2 73 23 21 19 73 9 1 0 0 2.7 1.05 2.16
                  8 Danny Salazar CLE 11 11 68.1 44 17 17 33 81 6 3 0 0 3.0 1.13 2.24
                  9 Rich Hill OAK 11 11 64.0 48 19 16 24 74 8 3 0 0 2.4 1.13 2.25
                  10 Jose Fernandez MIA 12 12 74.2 54 19 19 25 110 9 2 0 0 2.7 1.06 2.29
                  I have no interest in ERA, Kershaw 2.09 xFIP, Cueto is 15th at 3.43

                  There is a lot more to it than that of course, but if you want to choose one stat to rank pitchers by, I prefer xFIP to WAR.
                  Comment
                  • doubledime
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 04-22-09
                    • 9751

                    #10
                    Originally posted by 44 Mag
                    I suppose, it certainly seems likely with these two pitching. What about the bullpens???
                    LA's bullpen has been used quite a bit the last 3 days and both BP's have approx a 4 ERA each. However, each starter has a 102 and 103 average pitch count respectively, so the BPs should not be that much of a factor, at least "on paper" they shouldn't.
                    Comment
                    • PorkChop
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 09-18-08
                      • 8193

                      #11
                      How would you value Oakland/Cincinnati FF U 5 (-110)?
                      Comment
                      • RavensFan2k3
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-18-12
                        • 17378

                        #12
                        Today, I like Houston
                        Comment
                        • BOA12
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-19-12
                          • 20622

                          #13
                          Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                          Today, I like Houston
                          Tough game-playing under7- bol raven
                          Comment
                          • BOA12
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-19-12
                            • 20622

                            #14
                            Originally posted by 44 Mag
                            Who do you lean to, LAD or SF ??? Just curious.
                            SF +1.5 to tempting
                            Comment
                            • RavensFan2k3
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-18-12
                              • 17378

                              #15
                              Originally posted by BOA12
                              Tough game-playing under7- bol raven
                              Bol buddy
                              Comment
                              • LT Profits
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-27-06
                                • 90963

                                #16
                                Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                Today, I like Houston
                                Good to hear.
                                Comment
                                • BOA12
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 02-19-12
                                  • 20622

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                  Bol buddy
                                  thanks. Hoping to hit the Belmont tomorrow owe mag a winner.
                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by PorkChop
                                    How would you value Oakland/Cincinnati FF U 5 (-110)?
                                    Not terrible, I get 4.1. Would still prefer -105 or better though.
                                    Comment
                                    • tpark77
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 04-24-16
                                      • 111

                                      #19
                                      What do you have on the Mets with Harvey starting to find his groove?
                                      Comment
                                      • LT Profits
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-27-06
                                        • 90963

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by tpark77
                                        What do you have on the Mets with Harvey starting to find his groove?
                                        Mets 56% (-127)
                                        Comment
                                        • RollinDo
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 09-04-13
                                          • 13322

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by BOA12
                                          SF +1.5 to tempting
                                          I am betting 5% of my BR on SF +2.5
                                          2.5 Units to win 1

                                          Cueto being my favorite pitcher to back...MadBum not far behind
                                          Comment
                                          • gpet1984
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 10-03-15
                                            • 52

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                                            Mets 56% (-127)
                                            Harvey is still a shell of himself. Slider has a way to go but he is getting his fastball back up in the mid 90s. As a Met fan I'm rooting for him but I just don't see the same guy on the mound anymore.
                                            Comment
                                            • 44 Mag
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 10-14-13
                                              • 34490

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by RollinDo
                                              I am betting 5% of my BR on SF +2.5
                                              2.5 Units to win 1

                                              Cueto being my favorite pitcher to back...MadBum not far behind
                                              You will unhappy if Kershaw wins 3-0.
                                              Comment
                                              • Everest
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 05-19-16
                                                • 175

                                                #24
                                                Good luck today bud
                                                Comment
                                                • gpet1984
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 10-03-15
                                                  • 52

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                  Pass for me and I already explained why. Could just as easily be 3-0 or 3-1.
                                                  Just a theory but can't we argue that when Kershaw is pitching we want him to face a pitcher like Cueto do to making the line reasonable. Kershaw is that much better then anyone in baseball. I like the other end here I would take Kershaw all day if I was set on betting the game.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • HeeluvaGuy
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-15-14
                                                    • 3449

                                                    #26
                                                    LT - What do you have for the MIA/ARI total? Roof and panels scheduled to be open tonight with a breeze blowing out (even though the field is enclosed, when the wind blows out with the panels open there's a vacuum effect). Both teams also hit lefties pretty well, and Corbin has been pretty awful at home. Thanks.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Brock Landers
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 06-30-08
                                                      • 45359

                                                      #27
                                                      Long Term Profits 😉
                                                      Comment
                                                      • LT Profits
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 10-27-06
                                                        • 90963

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by gpet1984
                                                        Just a theory but can't we argue that when Kershaw is pitching we want him to face a pitcher like Cueto do to making the line reasonable. Kershaw is that much better then anyone in baseball. I like the other end here I would take Kershaw all day if I was set on betting the game.
                                                        I do not disagree with you in theory, except in this case the actual line is less than 10% lower than the model's -170. I know the 10% is a very loose rule of thumb, but for higher odds I would want more variance without being extreme. (That is for those that do not mind laying more than -130, which I almost never do).
                                                        Comment
                                                        • LT Profits
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 10-27-06
                                                          • 90963

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                          LT - What do you have for the MIA/ARI total? Roof and panels scheduled to be open tonight with a breeze blowing out (even though the field is enclosed, when the wind blows out with the panels open there's a vacuum effect). Both teams also hit lefties pretty well, and Corbin has been pretty awful at home. Thanks.
                                                          Yes, know all about the effects of open roof at Chase. Just ask Greinke.

                                                          Thing is model has weather-neutral total of just 8.8 here, so passing at 9.5.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • inns007
                                                            SBR Hustler
                                                            • 05-15-16
                                                            • 56

                                                            #30
                                                            What about Cubs vs braves? Would you guys take the Cubs?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • gpet1984
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 10-03-15
                                                              • 52

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                              Yes, know all about the effects of open roof at Chase. Just ask Greinke.

                                                              Thing is model has weather-neutral total of just 8.8 here, so passing at 9.5.
                                                              Where do you find out if they are goign to open the roof or not and at what time does this release
                                                              Comment
                                                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-15-14
                                                                • 3449

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                                Yes, know all about the effects of open roof at Chase. Just ask Greinke.

                                                                Thing is model has weather-neutral total of just 8.8 here, so passing at 9.5.
                                                                Thanks. I don't have data to back this up, but I go to a lot of games: It's really the open panels that make the ball carry at Chase Field. There really is a vacuum effect created. I've never seen just the panels opened, but I have been there with just the roof (no panels), and the ball carries a little differently with the panels closed.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • HeeluvaGuy
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-15-14
                                                                  • 3449

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by gpet1984
                                                                  Where do you find out if they are goign to open the roof or not and at what time does this release
                                                                  Schedule is here: http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roof

                                                                  Sometimes there are last minute changes (excess heat, wind, rain), but that's probably 90% accurate. Official team Twitter is also a good source.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Snake24
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-14-14
                                                                    • 2366

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Your boy for the Rockies is getting a lot of love today, LT. GL this weekend!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • LT Profits
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                                      • 90963

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by inns007
                                                                      What about Cubs vs braves? Would you guys take the Cubs?
                                                                      Na. WAY too close to model number
                                                                      Comment
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