MLB - Saturday, 6/4/16

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Saturday, 6/4/16
    2 MLB Plays Saturday

    Blue Jays +114 (Heritage)
    Yankees / Orioles UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)


    YTD: 160-169-7, -1.90
  • Chi_archie
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-22-08
    • 63167

    #2
    get em
    Comment
    • tpark77
      SBR High Roller
      • 04-24-16
      • 111

      #3
      60% ?
      Comment
      • tpark77
        SBR High Roller
        • 04-24-16
        • 111

        #4
        Couple of aces today...

        What's model say about kershaw/Dodgers, Strasburg/nationals, and sale/white sox?
        Comment
        • InsideMan
          SBR High Roller
          • 06-02-16
          • 206

          #5
          Good morning, LT! Why the Blue Jays against knuckleballer Wright? Do you think the predominantly lateral swing plane (versus high-low) of the contact hitters in the BlueJays lineup can get to the knuckleballer? Moreover, I am not a big fan of Stroman. He has overachieved a lot.
          Comment
          • LT Profits
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-27-06
            • 90963

            #6
            Three 60%ers and the third one is a doozy:

            Cubs 66% (-194)
            Washington 68% (-213)
            Dodgers 81% (-426)
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              Originally posted by tpark77
              Couple of aces today...

              What's model say about kershaw/Dodgers, Strasburg/nationals, and sale/white sox?
              Surprisingly, Sale is "only" 59% (-144)
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #8
                Originally posted by InsideMan
                Good morning, LT! Why the Blue Jays against knuckleballer Wright? Do you think the predominantly lateral swing plane (versus high-low) of the contact hitters in the BlueJays lineup can get to the knuckleballer? Moreover, I am not a big fan of Stroman. He has overachieved a lot.
                Wright has overachieved a lot more than Stroman this year given his 4.15 xFIP, his ERA is a mirage. If you want to account for batted balls, even Wright's SIERA is 4.22, so I am not a believer and expect a crash down to earth eventually.

                I get that Stroman was overrated entering the season but he is still above average with a 3.69 FIP, 3.79 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA, all a bit better than his ERA.
                Comment
                • 44 Mag
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 10-14-13
                  • 34490

                  #9
                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                  Three 60%ers and the third one is a doozy:

                  Cubs 66% (-194)
                  Washington 68% (-213)
                  Dodgers 81% (-426)
                  Good Morning LT. why is it everyday, the books hold up the O/U line on the Cubs game, as well as the TT's. They don't get released for hours???? What's up with that???
                  Comment
                  • pilebuck13
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 05-15-15
                    • 17918

                    #10
                    Weather mag.....-426 my god
                    Comment
                    • 44 Mag
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 10-14-13
                      • 34490

                      #11
                      Originally posted by pilebuck13
                      Weather mag.....-426 my god
                      What, they don't get weather reports in Chicago ???? And what does that -426 mean
                      Comment
                      • pilebuck13
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 05-15-15
                        • 17918

                        #12
                        I was referring to kershaw -440 or whatever the hell it is lol.....yah weather wind can change hours before game time there they have always done this idk
                        Comment
                        • LT Profits
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-27-06
                          • 90963

                          #13
                          Originally posted by 44 Mag
                          Good Morning LT. why is it everyday, the books hold up the O/U line on the Cubs game, as well as the TT's. They don't get released for hours???? What's up with that???
                          Wind. Wrigley plays like two different stadiums depending on if wind is blowing in or out, so books do not post overnight totals there. And yes, it has always been that way for as long as I can remember with the possible exception of playoffs games, when books MIGHT have posted overnights but not 100% sure.
                          Comment
                          • InsideMan
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 06-02-16
                            • 206

                            #14
                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                            Wright has overachieved a lot more than Stroman this year given his 4.15 xFIP, his ERA is a mirage. If you want to account for batted balls, even Wright's SIERA is 4.22, so I am not a believer and expect a crash down to earth eventually.

                            I get that Stroman was overrated entering the season but he is still above average with a 3.69 FIP, 3.79 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA, all a bit better than his ERA.
                            Thank you, LT! Good analysis.
                            Comment
                            • Vinnie Paz
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 03-27-12
                              • 12177

                              #15
                              Originally posted by LT Profits
                              Three 60%ers and the third one is a doozy:

                              Cubs 66% (-194)
                              Washington 68% (-213)
                              Dodgers 81% (-426)
                              DBacks?
                              Comment
                              • LT Profits
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-27-06
                                • 90963

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Vinnie Paz
                                DBacks?
                                Yes I know, I may be forced to bet them against my will.
                                Comment
                                • 44 Mag
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 10-14-13
                                  • 34490

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by pilebuck13
                                  I was referring to kershaw -440 or whatever the hell it is lol.....yah weather wind can change hours before game time there they have always done this idk
                                  Originally posted by LT Profits

                                  Wind. Wrigley plays like two different stadiums depending on if wind is blowing in or out, so books do not post overnight totals there. And yes, it has always been that way for as long as I can remember with the possible exception of playoffs games, when books MIGHT have posted overnights but not 100% sure.
                                  Thanks guys.
                                  <br>
                                  <br>
                                  Comment
                                  • Nateboogy
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 03-13-14
                                    • 167

                                    #18
                                    Under 8.5 -105?
                                    Comment
                                    • pilebuck13
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 05-15-15
                                      • 17918

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by LT Profits
                                      Yes I know, I may be forced to bet them against my will.
                                      Pull the trigger T Escobar
                                      Comment
                                      • LT Profits
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-27-06
                                        • 90963

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Nateboogy
                                        Under 8.5 -105?
                                        No, I think 9 is a key number in that game as model has 7.9. I would pass at 8.5 unless you could find a REALLY rogue line of say +110 or more.
                                        Comment
                                        • El Nino
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 05-03-12
                                          • 18426

                                          #21
                                          I'd avoid Washington. Thunderstorm looks to be hitting Cincy soon.
                                          Comment
                                          • hit_me90
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 02-18-16
                                            • 618

                                            #22
                                            Good afternoon LT. Your opinion of the best sports book that allows you to buy runs on totals and no hassles with payouts. I'm in USA. Greatly appreciate your advise
                                            Comment
                                            • LT Profits
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-27-06
                                              • 90963

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by hit_me90
                                              Good afternoon LT. Your opinion of the best sports book that allows you to buy runs on totals and no hassles with payouts. I'm in USA. Greatly appreciate your advise
                                              Heritage. And if you use Bitcoin, should not be a hassle depositing with/withdrawing from any USA facing book.
                                              Comment
                                              • jazzyj7
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 03-02-09
                                                • 859

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by hit_me90
                                                Good afternoon LT. Your opinion of the best sports book that allows you to buy runs on totals and no hassles with payouts. I'm in USA. Greatly appreciate your advise
                                                Heritage allows you to buy up to 4 runs in some cases.
                                                Comment
                                                • hit_me90
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 02-18-16
                                                  • 618

                                                  #25
                                                  Thank you very much. How is withdrawals. Nice and easy ?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • LT Profits
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 10-27-06
                                                    • 90963

                                                    #26
                                                    1 MLB Addition

                                                    3 MLB Plays Saturday

                                                    Diamondbacks +251 (Heritage)
                                                    Blue Jays +114 (Heritage)
                                                    Yankees / Orioles UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • pilebuck13
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 05-15-15
                                                      • 17918

                                                      #27
                                                      Gl my man
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Yazworm91
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-01-13
                                                        • 2397

                                                        #28
                                                        Kershaw -2.5 -115. 😂😂. Insane
                                                        Comment
                                                        • HeeluvaGuy
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-15-14
                                                          • 3449

                                                          #29
                                                          Really surprised about he Arizona pick. Escobar is atrocious as is the DBacks' pen. Add to that the appearance that the players have completely quit on Chip Hale, and I actually took the Cubs -4 at +251. Lol

                                                          Do your numbers like Escobar?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MS Profits
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 04-11-16
                                                            • 12

                                                            #30
                                                            Hey LT, Im thinking of taking Colorado TT O 3.5 over Cashner, thoughts?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • LT Profits
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 10-27-06
                                                              • 90963

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                              Really surprised about he Arizona pick. Escobar is atrocious as is the DBacks' pen. Add to that the appearance that the players have completely quit on Chip Hale, and I actually took the Cubs -4 at +251. Lol

                                                              Do your numbers like Escobar?
                                                              Look at the 60%ers, I only get Hammel -194. I joked that I was forced to bet Arizona against my will but it is what it is.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • cankid
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 08-22-08
                                                                • 7220

                                                                #32
                                                                GL today thanks for posting
                                                                Comment
                                                                • LT Profits
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 10-27-06
                                                                  • 90963

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by MS Profits
                                                                  Hey LT, Im thinking of taking Colorado TT O 3.5 over Cashner, thoughts?
                                                                  Not a fan, I have score of 3.4-3.3
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JayDr3am
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 05-06-14
                                                                    • 18260

                                                                    #34
                                                                    kind of worries me you hopped on the dbacks.. but GL today LT
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • funnyb25
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 07-09-09
                                                                      • 39663

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by JayDr3am
                                                                      kind of worries me you hopped on the dbacks.. but GL today LT
                                                                      Its a pure value play, dont read too much into it...his model prolly has the Dbacks losing this game 7/10 times.... but all u would need is 3 out of 10 to make a few bucks
                                                                      Comment
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