MLB - Saturday, 6/4/16

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Saturday

Blue Jays +114 (Heritage)
Yankees / Orioles UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)


YTD: 160-169-7, -1.90

[Chi_archie]

get em

[tpark77]

60% ?

[tpark77]

Couple of aces today...

What's model say about kershaw/Dodgers, Strasburg/nationals, and sale/white sox?

[InsideMan]

Good morning, LT! Why the Blue Jays against knuckleballer Wright? Do you think the predominantly lateral swing plane (versus high-low) of the contact hitters in the BlueJays lineup can get to the knuckleballer? Moreover, I am not a big fan of Stroman. He has overachieved a lot.

[LT Profits]

Three 60%ers and the third one is a doozy:

Cubs 66% (-194)
Washington 68% (-213)
Dodgers 81% (-426)

[LT Profits]

Couple of aces today...

What's model say about kershaw/Dodgers, Strasburg/nationals, and sale/white sox?

Surprisingly, Sale is "only" 59% (-144)

[LT Profits]

Good morning, LT! Why the Blue Jays against knuckleballer Wright? Do you think the predominantly lateral swing plane (versus high-low) of the contact hitters in the BlueJays lineup can get to the knuckleballer? Moreover, I am not a big fan of Stroman. He has overachieved a lot.

Wright has overachieved a lot more than Stroman this year given his 4.15 xFIP, his ERA is a mirage. If you want to account for batted balls, even Wright's SIERA is 4.22, so I am not a believer and expect a crash down to earth eventually.

I get that Stroman was overrated entering the season but he is still above average with a 3.69 FIP, 3.79 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA, all a bit better than his ERA.

[44 Mag]

Three 60%ers and the third one is a doozy:

Cubs 66% (-194)
Washington 68% (-213)
Dodgers 81% (-426)

Good Morning LT. why is it everyday, the books hold up the O/U line on the Cubs game, as well as the TT's. They don't get released for hours???? What's up with that???

[pilebuck13]

Weather mag.....-426 my god

[44 Mag]

Weather mag.....-426 my god

What, they don't get weather reports in Chicago ???? And what does that -426 mean

[pilebuck13]

I was referring to kershaw -440 or whatever the hell it is lol.....yah weather wind can change hours before game time there they have always done this idk

[LT Profits]

Good Morning LT. why is it everyday, the books hold up the O/U line on the Cubs game, as well as the TT's. They don't get released for hours???? What's up with that???

Wind. Wrigley plays like two different stadiums depending on if wind is blowing in or out, so books do not post overnight totals there. And yes, it has always been that way for as long as I can remember with the possible exception of playoffs games, when books MIGHT have posted overnights but not 100% sure.

[InsideMan]

Wright has overachieved a lot more than Stroman this year given his 4.15 xFIP, his ERA is a mirage. If you want to account for batted balls, even Wright's SIERA is 4.22, so I am not a believer and expect a crash down to earth eventually.

I get that Stroman was overrated entering the season but he is still above average with a 3.69 FIP, 3.79 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA, all a bit better than his ERA.

Thank you, LT! Good analysis.

[Vinnie Paz]

Three 60%ers and the third one is a doozy:

Cubs 66% (-194)
Washington 68% (-213)
Dodgers 81% (-426)

DBacks?

[LT Profits]

DBacks?

Yes I know, I may be forced to bet them against my will.

[44 Mag]

I was referring to kershaw -440 or whatever the hell it is lol.....yah weather wind can change hours before game time there they have always done this idk

Wind. Wrigley plays like two different stadiums depending on if wind is blowing in or out, so books do not post overnight totals there. And yes, it has always been that way for as long as I can remember with the possible exception of playoffs games, when books MIGHT have posted overnights but not 100% sure.

Thanks guys.
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[Nateboogy]

Under 8.5 -105?

[pilebuck13]

Yes I know, I may be forced to bet them against my will.

Pull the trigger T Escobar

[LT Profits]

Under 8.5 -105?

No, I think 9 is a key number in that game as model has 7.9. I would pass at 8.5 unless you could find a REALLY rogue line of say +110 or more.

[El Nino]

I'd avoid Washington. Thunderstorm looks to be hitting Cincy soon.

[hit_me90]

Good afternoon LT. Your opinion of the best sports book that allows you to buy runs on totals and no hassles with payouts. I'm in USA. Greatly appreciate your advise

[LT Profits]

Good afternoon LT. Your opinion of the best sports book that allows you to buy runs on totals and no hassles with payouts. I'm in USA. Greatly appreciate your advise

Heritage. And if you use Bitcoin, should not be a hassle depositing with/withdrawing from any USA facing book.

[jazzyj7]

Good afternoon LT. Your opinion of the best sports book that allows you to buy runs on totals and no hassles with payouts. I'm in USA. Greatly appreciate your advise

Heritage allows you to buy up to 4 runs in some cases.

[hit_me90]

Thank you very much. How is withdrawals. Nice and easy ?

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

3 MLB Plays Saturday

Diamondbacks +251 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +114 (Heritage)
Yankees / Orioles UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)

[pilebuck13]

Gl my man

[Yazworm91]

Kershaw -2.5 -115. 😂😂. Insane

[HeeluvaGuy]

Really surprised about he Arizona pick. Escobar is atrocious as is the DBacks' pen. Add to that the appearance that the players have completely quit on Chip Hale, and I actually took the Cubs -4 at +251. Lol

Do your numbers like Escobar?

[MS Profits]

Hey LT, Im thinking of taking Colorado TT O 3.5 over Cashner, thoughts?

[LT Profits]

Really surprised about he Arizona pick. Escobar is atrocious as is the DBacks' pen. Add to that the appearance that the players have completely quit on Chip Hale, and I actually took the Cubs -4 at +251. Lol

Do your numbers like Escobar?

Look at the 60%ers, I only get Hammel -194. I joked that I was forced to bet Arizona against my will but it is what it is.

[cankid]

GL today thanks for posting

[LT Profits]

Hey LT, Im thinking of taking Colorado TT O 3.5 over Cashner, thoughts?

Not a fan, I have score of 3.4-3.3

[JayDr3am]

kind of worries me you hopped on the dbacks.. but GL today LT

[funnyb25]

kind of worries me you hopped on the dbacks.. but GL today LT

Its a pure value play, dont read too much into it...his model prolly has the Dbacks losing this game 7/10 times.... but all u would need is 3 out of 10 to make a few bucks