MLB - Tuesday, 4/26/16

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Tuesday, 4/26/16
    5 MLB Plays Tuesday

    Red Sox / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Brewers +190 (Heritage)
    Pirates / Rockies UNDER 10 -105 (Heritage)
    Cardinals / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
    Padres / Giants UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 46-61-1, -10.30
  • JassieJames
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-03-09
    • 988

    #2
    These are the exact plays and lines as yesterday?
    Comment
    • LT Profits
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-27-06
      • 90963

      #3
      Originally posted by JassieJames
      These are the exact plays and lines as yesterday?
      Yes I copied wrong set. Fixed now.
      Comment
      • agendaman
        SBR MVP
        • 12-01-11
        • 3729

        #4
        vegas odds right now have chris sale at only -112 vs. dickey what's up with that wow Kershaw is -320
        Comment
        • Amadeo-Picks
          SBR MVP
          • 04-20-14
          • 1084

          #5
          Originally posted by agendaman
          vegas odds right now have chris sale at only -112 vs. dickey what's up with that wow Kershaw is -320
          Kershaw is Kershaw. -320 is not wow when it comes to him. Seen it more than a few times and will continue to see it. He is lights out right now. Dodgers win tonight
          Comment
          • Amadeo-Picks
            SBR MVP
            • 04-20-14
            • 1084

            #6
            Originally posted by LT Profits
            5 MLB Plays Tuesday

            Red Sox / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
            Brewers +190 (Heritage)
            Pirates / Rockies UNDER 10 -105 (Heritage)
            Cardinals / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
            Padres / Giants UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)


            YTD: 46-61-1, -10.30
            Az and cards offenses have woken up past 3 days ... Just my thought
            Comment
            • Smoke
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-09-09
              • 48111

              #7
              any 60%ers?
              Comment
              • DigBick86
                SBR MVP
                • 12-06-10
                • 1930

                #8
                Still on the brewers crew d yu think the books undervalue them?
                Comment
                • LT Profits
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-27-06
                  • 90963

                  #9
                  Originally posted by DigBick86
                  Still on the brewers crew d yu think the books undervalue them?
                  I think this starting pitching matchup is too close to justify the big price
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #10
                    60%ers:

                    Washington 69% (-223)
                    Boston 66% (-194)
                    Cubs 62% (-163)
                    Dodgers 75% (-300)
                    San Francisco 63% (-170)

                    I went against the Cubs at +190
                    Comment
                    • Louisvillekid1
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-17-07
                      • 52143

                      #11
                      Originally posted by LT Profits
                      I think this starting pitching matchup is too close to justify the big price
                      Why not FF then
                      Comment
                      • KVB
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 05-29-14
                        • 74817

                        #12
                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                        Yes I copied wrong set. Fixed now.


                        That'll throw em for a loop.

                        LT, I know it's one of the hardest things to do, but take a week off until May, it's not a bad time and it's good for the heart, mind and soul.

                        Hopefully you at least clear the mind during the All-Star break; one of the few times of the year with almost nothing to bet.

                        Stay focused pal.

                        Comment
                        • LT Profits
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-27-06
                          • 90963

                          #13
                          1 MLB Addition

                          6 MLB Plays Tuesday

                          Red Sox / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
                          Brewers +190 (Heritage)
                          Yankees -112 (Bookmaker)
                          Pirates / Rockies UNDER 10 -105 (Heritage)
                          Cardinals / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
                          Padres / Giants UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
                          Comment
                          • Conqueror
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-08-13
                            • 16778

                            #14
                            Originally posted by DigBick86
                            Still on the brewers crew d yu think the books undervalue them?
                            No. They're actually bad and the Cubs are the masters of multiple-run wins. Cubs RL is the play here. The SP matchup is close but the Cubs have the far superior pen.
                            Comment
                            • RavensFan2k3
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-18-12
                              • 17378

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Conqueror
                              No. They're actually bad and the Cubs are the masters of multiple-run wins. Cubs RL is the play here. The SP matchup is close but the Cubs have the far superior pen.
                              goodluck with that
                              Comment
                              • LT Profits
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-27-06
                                • 90963

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Conqueror
                                No. They're actually bad and the Cubs are the masters of multiple-run wins. Cubs RL is the play here. The SP matchup is close but the Cubs have the far superior pen.
                                Nelson going seven innings would alleviate that. He has gone at least six in every start.
                                Comment
                                • klemopixx
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 10-02-14
                                  • 3807

                                  #17
                                  Cubs/Dodgers/Red Sox/White Sox/ ML parlay is the play here.
                                  Cubs vs a scrub Milwaukee team
                                  Kershaw going for the Dodgers
                                  Price going for the Red Sox vs a scrub Braves team
                                  Sale throwing for the White Sox
                                  What's not to like about that?
                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by klemopixx
                                    Cubs/Dodgers/Red Sox/White Sox/ ML parlay is the play here.
                                    Cubs vs a scrub Milwaukee team
                                    Kershaw going for the Dodgers
                                    Price going for the Red Sox vs a scrub Braves team
                                    Sale throwing for the White Sox
                                    What's not to like about that?
                                    If you want to go the 4-team chalk parley route (which I would NEVER do), I would substitute Nationals for Cubs. Brewers may be a scrub team but they have the better starter.
                                    Comment
                                    • Conqueror
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-08-13
                                      • 16778

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by LT Profits
                                      Nelson going seven innings would alleviate that. He has gone at least six in every start.
                                      That's true.
                                      Comment
                                      • RavensFan2k3
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 08-18-12
                                        • 17378

                                        #20
                                        Don't understand the Yankees pick
                                        Comment
                                        • blackHIPPY
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-01-14
                                          • 3973

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                          Don't understand the Yankees pick
                                          Why don't you like it
                                          Comment
                                          • RavensFan2k3
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 08-18-12
                                            • 17378

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by blackHIPPY
                                            Why don't you like it
                                            I don't think Serverino should be favored in this spot, infact I'm almost certain I'm gonna be on Texas here
                                            Comment
                                            • KVB
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 05-29-14
                                              • 74817

                                              #23
                                              That's interesting. I've noticed most lines I can create that are predictive come out with the Yankees winning this game, by as much as a run and I think LT's price is fine, although -110 would be ideal.

                                              On the other hand, it seems most non predictive ways to handicap the game seem to give the Rangers the nod. That doesn't have to include Ravens.

                                              The totals I see begin about 7 and the more sophisticated the line, the closer the total is to 7.5, with some going slightly over.

                                              Texas is a popular bet here after the books gave early bettors some value with the Yankees. They ran the line up a bit high because only one side was hit as much of the public, who doesn't step in until today, has been buying Texas down since. There could be a battle of bettors around this -110 to -115 level, settling somewhere in between.

                                              Comment
                                              • LT Profits
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 10-27-06
                                                • 90963

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                                Don't understand the Yankees pick
                                                Not hard to understand, Yankees have the big pitching edge and the offenses are close. Griffin overachieving (and Severino underachieving) early on keeping the price reasonable.
                                                Comment
                                                • PorkChop
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 09-18-08
                                                  • 8193

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                  Not hard to understand, Yankees have the big pitching edge and the offenses are close. Griffin overachieving (and Severino underachieving) early on keeping the price reasonable.

                                                  But how long is Rangers lineup going to be held in check, after WhiteSox series, and last night's opener, bats will come eventually.

                                                  Take a 2-run lead over the Yankees and they're not coming back.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • RavensFan2k3
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-18-12
                                                    • 17378

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                    Not hard to understand, Yankees have the big pitching edge and the offenses are close. Griffin overachieving (and Severino underachieving) early on keeping the price reasonable.
                                                    Okay Goodluck
                                                    Comment
                                                    • l7ustin
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 10-09-08
                                                      • 3914

                                                      #27
                                                      I hope severino is underachieving cuz im starting to regret drafting him in fantasy
                                                      Comment
                                                      • KVB
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 05-29-14
                                                        • 74817

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by PorkChop
                                                        But how long is Rangers lineup going to be held in check, after WhiteSox series, and last night's opener, bats will come eventually...
                                                        This is no doubt contributing to that pressure and part of that betting momentum that's trying to get Texas a win here.

                                                        The same streak breaking mentality is helping to inflate the Total in the game to 9 points. The books prepared early for this pressure with an early opener of 9.5, in contrast to the roller coaster ride that was allowed to occur with the moneyline.

                                                        I also don't think they've booked the action they were hoping on the Under for this game so far.

                                                        I may help them out with an Under play myself.

                                                        Comment
                                                        • trobin31
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 01-09-14
                                                          • 9853

                                                          #29
                                                          Fyi, Ryan Braun, rest- out of starting lineup
                                                          Comment
                                                          • jjgold
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 07-20-05
                                                            • 388179

                                                            #30
                                                            LT you can't get it going right now but I think things will change best of luck
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Nateboogy
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 03-13-14
                                                              • 167

                                                              #31
                                                              Does Braun being scratched change your view on the brew crew?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mikefan1034
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 08-29-12
                                                                • 2448

                                                                #32
                                                                Ryan Braun scratched

                                                                It deff should but for LT of course not even though he's a major part of that offense but LT is on such a bad run right now he will say it's still value
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Ghenghis Kahn
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                                  • 19734

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by klemopixx
                                                                  Cubs/Dodgers/Red Sox/White Sox/ ML parlay is the play here.
                                                                  Cubs vs a scrub Milwaukee team
                                                                  Kershaw going for the Dodgers
                                                                  Price going for the Red Sox vs a scrub Braves team
                                                                  Sale throwing for the White Sox
                                                                  What's not to like about that?
                                                                  white sox might be the game that loses here.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • LT Profits
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 10-27-06
                                                                    • 90963

                                                                    #34
                                                                    After taking out Braun, Cubs jump to 66% (-194), so my +190 is now -EV. Since Cubs odds skyrocketed to the -220/-230 range, I will just let the play ride since Brewers are less -EV than Cubs.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • blackHIPPY
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 10-01-14
                                                                      • 3973

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Thx lt
                                                                      Comment
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