MLB - Tuesday, 4/26/16

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays Tuesday

Red Sox / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Brewers +190 (Heritage)
Pirates / Rockies UNDER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
Padres / Giants UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)


YTD: 46-61-1, -10.30

[JassieJames]

These are the exact plays and lines as yesterday?

[LT Profits]

These are the exact plays and lines as yesterday?

Yes I copied wrong set. Fixed now.

[agendaman]

vegas odds right now have chris sale at only -112 vs. dickey what's up with that wow Kershaw is -320

[Amadeo-Picks]

vegas odds right now have chris sale at only -112 vs. dickey what's up with that wow Kershaw is -320

Kershaw is Kershaw. -320 is not wow when it comes to him. Seen it more than a few times and will continue to see it. He is lights out right now. Dodgers win tonight

[Amadeo-Picks]

5 MLB Plays Tuesday

Red Sox / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Brewers +190 (Heritage)
Pirates / Rockies UNDER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
Padres / Giants UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)


YTD: 46-61-1, -10.30

Az and cards offenses have woken up past 3 days ... Just my thought

[Smoke]

any 60%ers?

[DigBick86]

Still on the brewers crew d yu think the books undervalue them?

[LT Profits]

Still on the brewers crew d yu think the books undervalue them?

I think this starting pitching matchup is too close to justify the big price

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Washington 69% (-223)
Boston 66% (-194)
Cubs 62% (-163)
Dodgers 75% (-300)
San Francisco 63% (-170)

I went against the Cubs at +190

[Louisvillekid1]

I think this starting pitching matchup is too close to justify the big price

Why not FF then

[KVB]

Yes I copied wrong set. Fixed now.

That'll throw em for a loop.

LT, I know it's one of the hardest things to do, but take a week off until May, it's not a bad time and it's good for the heart, mind and soul.

Hopefully you at least clear the mind during the All-Star break; one of the few times of the year with almost nothing to bet.

Stay focused pal.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Red Sox / Braves UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Brewers +190 (Heritage)
Yankees -112 (Bookmaker)
Pirates / Rockies UNDER 10 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
Padres / Giants UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)

[Conqueror]

Still on the brewers crew d yu think the books undervalue them?

No. They're actually bad and the Cubs are the masters of multiple-run wins. Cubs RL is the play here. The SP matchup is close but the Cubs have the far superior pen.

[RavensFan2k3]

No. They're actually bad and the Cubs are the masters of multiple-run wins. Cubs RL is the play here. The SP matchup is close but the Cubs have the far superior pen.

goodluck with that

[LT Profits]

No. They're actually bad and the Cubs are the masters of multiple-run wins. Cubs RL is the play here. The SP matchup is close but the Cubs have the far superior pen.

Nelson going seven innings would alleviate that. He has gone at least six in every start.

[klemopixx]

Cubs/Dodgers/Red Sox/White Sox/ ML parlay is the play here.
Cubs vs a scrub Milwaukee team
Kershaw going for the Dodgers
Price going for the Red Sox vs a scrub Braves team
Sale throwing for the White Sox
What's not to like about that?

[LT Profits]

Cubs/Dodgers/Red Sox/White Sox/ ML parlay is the play here.
Cubs vs a scrub Milwaukee team
Kershaw going for the Dodgers
Price going for the Red Sox vs a scrub Braves team
Sale throwing for the White Sox
What's not to like about that?

If you want to go the 4-team chalk parley route (which I would NEVER do), I would substitute Nationals for Cubs. Brewers may be a scrub team but they have the better starter.

[Conqueror]

Nelson going seven innings would alleviate that. He has gone at least six in every start.

That's true.

[RavensFan2k3]

Don't understand the Yankees pick

[blackHIPPY]

Don't understand the Yankees pick

Why don't you like it

[RavensFan2k3]

Why don't you like it

I don't think Serverino should be favored in this spot, infact I'm almost certain I'm gonna be on Texas here

[KVB]

That's interesting. I've noticed most lines I can create that are predictive come out with the Yankees winning this game, by as much as a run and I think LT's price is fine, although -110 would be ideal.

On the other hand, it seems most non predictive ways to handicap the game seem to give the Rangers the nod. That doesn't have to include Ravens.

The totals I see begin about 7 and the more sophisticated the line, the closer the total is to 7.5, with some going slightly over.

Texas is a popular bet here after the books gave early bettors some value with the Yankees. They ran the line up a bit high because only one side was hit as much of the public, who doesn't step in until today, has been buying Texas down since. There could be a battle of bettors around this -110 to -115 level, settling somewhere in between.

[LT Profits]

Don't understand the Yankees pick

Not hard to understand, Yankees have the big pitching edge and the offenses are close. Griffin overachieving (and Severino underachieving) early on keeping the price reasonable.

[PorkChop]

Not hard to understand, Yankees have the big pitching edge and the offenses are close. Griffin overachieving (and Severino underachieving) early on keeping the price reasonable.

But how long is Rangers lineup going to be held in check, after WhiteSox series, and last night's opener, bats will come eventually.

Take a 2-run lead over the Yankees and they're not coming back.

[RavensFan2k3]

Not hard to understand, Yankees have the big pitching edge and the offenses are close. Griffin overachieving (and Severino underachieving) early on keeping the price reasonable.

Okay Goodluck

[l7ustin]

I hope severino is underachieving cuz im starting to regret drafting him in fantasy

[KVB]

But how long is Rangers lineup going to be held in check, after WhiteSox series, and last night's opener, bats will come eventually...

This is no doubt contributing to that pressure and part of that betting momentum that's trying to get Texas a win here.

The same streak breaking mentality is helping to inflate the Total in the game to 9 points. The books prepared early for this pressure with an early opener of 9.5, in contrast to the roller coaster ride that was allowed to occur with the moneyline.

I also don't think they've booked the action they were hoping on the Under for this game so far.

I may help them out with an Under play myself.

[trobin31]

Fyi, Ryan Braun, rest- out of starting lineup

[jjgold]

LT you can't get it going right now but I think things will change best of luck

[Nateboogy]

Does Braun being scratched change your view on the brew crew?

[mikefan1034]

Ryan Braun scratched

It deff should but for LT of course not even though he's a major part of that offense but LT is on such a bad run right now he will say it's still value

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Cubs/Dodgers/Red Sox/White Sox/ ML parlay is the play here.
Cubs vs a scrub Milwaukee team
Kershaw going for the Dodgers
Price going for the Red Sox vs a scrub Braves team
Sale throwing for the White Sox
What's not to like about that?

white sox might be the game that loses here.

[LT Profits]

After taking out Braun, Cubs jump to 66% (-194), so my +190 is now -EV. Since Cubs odds skyrocketed to the -220/-230 range, I will just let the play ride since Brewers are less -EV than Cubs.

[blackHIPPY]

Thx lt