Tracking very successful MLB system... $$$

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  • iloseagain
    Restricted User
    • 06-29-10
    • 10682

    #1
    Tracking very successful MLB system... $$$
    I found this system on the internet somewhere.. It has been tracked for a decade, and only lost for the season ONCE in the past 10 years. I have been tracking it in my thread for the start of the season and it is 8-9 -0.85 units thus far. I am going to track it here instead because I think it can be very profitable for everyone and I know not everyone is looking at my thread. We are all trying to beat the bookie one way or another, so hopefully I can help out by posting these system plays in here




    As of now, looks like no system plays for 4/14

    System plays to this point have been right around .500, with a small loss in units. I think once the season starts getting further ahead, these plays will start hitting at a better rate. It has been tracked (not by me) for a decade and only ONE year has it lost for the season, and it was something like a measly -3 units or so.

    Basically the system is:
    -Dog of +120 or higher (sometimes i play +110 to +120 for smaller)
    -Total of 8.5 or higher (i play lower totals for smaller. Read below for details on why..)
    -The favorite won their last game
    -The favorite has win % of .600 or higher
    -The dog has win % of .599 or lower
    -70% bets or higher on the favorite
    -Game played during regular season

    The thing about this system is that the higher the total, the better the ROI. Its been profitable for totals less than 8.5 (hence why i still play them, but for smaller), but once we hit that 8.5 number, the ROI jumps up significantly. Totals of 10.5+, the ROI jumps again SIGNIFICANTLY. Also, the ROI jumps up quite a bit when we play against a team that WON their last game. This system will start kicking ass soon enough, just wait and see.

    Because its early in the season and we havent had many games, i have sort of been ignoring the 60%+ win percentage and the 59% or less win percentage. Once there are more games, i will be able to follow this better and weed out the games that may not have qualified in the past.

    ROI Info
    Total 6.5+ 11.8%
    Total 7.5+ 12.2%
    Total 8.5+ 16.5%
    Total 10.5+ 24.3%


    I will be updating this daily with the system plays, so hopefully it ends up being another profitable year for the system.. BOL to all
  • iloseagain
    Restricted User
    • 06-29-10
    • 10682

    #2
    Atl +185 0.5x
    Cin +145 0.5x
    Arizona +120 0.5x
    Yanks +138 1x

    These all fit. Some dont fit the 60%+ win % setting, but im ignoring that for the start of the season until we have more games
    Comment
    • play4win
      SBR MVP
      • 06-23-11
      • 2208

      #3
      any - runline system?
      Comment
      • iloseagain
        Restricted User
        • 06-29-10
        • 10682

        #4
        Originally posted by play4win
        any - runline system?
        Nope. this is it... system didnt do well tonight, but thats okay. The fact that it plays ALL dogs means it doesnt have to hit at nearly 50% to be successful.. Will keep posting and we will see that it will be successful over the long run. Im not making this system up. Its public information on sportsinsights.com. They have tracked it for 10 years.
        Comment
        • iloseagain
          Restricted User
          • 06-29-10
          • 10682

          #5
          not gonna be posting plays that dont fit every category anymore. Will only be playing games over 8.5 total.. Looks like nothing today
          Comment
          • Fat_Stax
            SBR High Roller
            • 12-08-14
            • 160

            #6
            I've been looking for a good baseball system to use and twist to my liking. I bet baseball off pure instinct, current trends, and historic stats. That results in me only having 1 or 2 plays a day that I like or maybe even every other day. Might have to scope this out with you.
            Comment
            • iloseagain
              Restricted User
              • 06-29-10
              • 10682

              #7
              Atl +120 1x
              Det +120 1x
              Comment
              • FlyinAir
                SBR MVP
                • 07-14-14
                • 1612

                #8
                Bol

                Comment
                • iloseagain
                  Restricted User
                  • 06-29-10
                  • 10682

                  #9
                  both teams with leads late
                  Comment
                  • iloseagain
                    Restricted User
                    • 06-29-10
                    • 10682

                    #10
                    10-13 -0.95

                    0-4 first day posted
                    2-0 today with the plays that were o8.5 on the total.. first day only yanks was over 8.5
                    Comment
                    • iloseagain
                      Restricted User
                      • 06-29-10
                      • 10682

                      #11
                      didnt even look earlier, but just checked now and nothing qualified anyways
                      Comment
                      • liqidzen
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 04-07-15
                        • 88

                        #12
                        I use the same system, I actually made a thread a few days ago:


                        But you have beat me to it! I usually call this the "fade the public" system because you are scalping profit from the unbalanced books.
                        We can perhaps work together to identify posts in this thread, I'll see if I can help out.
                        Comment
                        • BigDofBA
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 09-30-09
                          • 19311

                          #13
                          In all of my years of gambling I've never seen a system that works.

                          Riding streaks is the most effective thing I've seen.
                          Comment
                          • iloseagain
                            Restricted User
                            • 06-29-10
                            • 10682

                            #14
                            Originally posted by liqidzen
                            I use the same system, I actually made a thread a few days ago:


                            But you have beat me to it! I usually call this the "fade the public" system because you are scalping profit from the unbalanced books.
                            We can perhaps work together to identify posts in this thread, I'll see if I can help out.
                            yes please do check in here and help out brotha!
                            Originally posted by BigDofBA
                            In all of my years of gambling I've never seen a system that works.

                            Riding streaks is the most effective thing I've seen.
                            well i agree with riding streaks.. but this is proven and has only lost 1 year and it was like -3 units
                            Comment
                            • iloseagain
                              Restricted User
                              • 06-29-10
                              • 10682

                              #15
                              hey liqidzen is this system supposed to be played as a chase? What if the dog isnt +120 or higher in each game of the series? I feel as if this would screw up the 'chase'
                              Comment
                              • BigDofBA
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 09-30-09
                                • 19311

                                #16
                                I'll watch and see how this goes. I'm not tailing it though.

                                GL
                                Last edited by BigDofBA; 04-17-16, 10:24 PM.
                                Comment
                                • pigskinhedging
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 01-02-16
                                  • 26

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by iloseagain
                                  10-13 -0.95

                                  0-4 first day posted
                                  2-0 today with the plays that were o8.5 on the total.. first day only yanks was over 8.5
                                  So really if you'd followed the 8.5 rule you'd be up unit wise. No big deal though.
                                  Comment
                                  • iloseagain
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 06-29-10
                                    • 10682

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by pigskinhedging
                                    So really if you'd followed the 8.5 rule you'd be up unit wise. No big deal though.
                                    i mean i guess so, but even games at 6.5 and higher have have + ROI, so its not crazy to bet those as well
                                    Comment
                                    • iloseagain
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 06-29-10
                                      • 10682

                                      #19
                                      Mil would be a play today, but Min does not have 60% Win %.. I dont think anything else would fit today from what I can see
                                      Comment
                                      • pigskinhedging
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 01-02-16
                                        • 26

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by iloseagain
                                        i mean i guess so, but even games at 6.5 and higher have have + ROI, so its not crazy to bet those as well
                                        That's right I think I recall you posting there were different percentages based upon the RL. Still really interested in this. One interesting thing, I have a somewhat small bankroll and if the games are going to be 1 or 2 every other day it might be worth an extra unit per game. Although for a month or so .5 units or simply tracking might be smart. I just hate to waste a good return if I am sitting after two weeks of $$$ I'm jumping in.
                                        Comment
                                        • iloseagain
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 06-29-10
                                          • 10682

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by pigskinhedging
                                          That's right I think I recall you posting there were different percentages based upon the RL. Still really interested in this. One interesting thing, I have a somewhat small bankroll and if the games are going to be 1 or 2 every other day it might be worth an extra unit per game. Although for a month or so .5 units or simply tracking might be smart. I just hate to waste a good return if I am sitting after two weeks of $$$ I'm jumping in.
                                          Right. The ROI's are in the first post. I would feel safe playing a normal unit size here. There isnt really a need to track it per se, considering its been tracked for a decade now. I didnt just make this system up the other day haha
                                          Comment
                                          • dlunc3
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 10-31-09
                                            • 9129

                                            #22
                                            What site are you using to decide if 70%+ bets are on the favorite?
                                            Comment
                                            • iloseagain
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 06-29-10
                                              • 10682

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by dlunc3
                                              What site are you using to decide if 70%+ bets are on the favorite?
                                              Our free MLB Live Odds page so you can keep track of movement from all major sportsbooks. Make smarter bets and follow us here at Sports Insights today!
                                              Comment
                                              • liqidzen
                                                SBR Hustler
                                                • 04-07-15
                                                • 88

                                                #24
                                                My Plays
                                                LA Angels - 19% public money, 8.5 over, underdog on my book at 2.07
                                                Arizona - 18% public money, 8 over (not officially a play but close enough), underdog at 2.16


                                                Because these are the first of the 3 games, I'll be playing them as an ABC chase. So far I have won every single bet I have placed this year using this system (up 15 units so far this year)
                                                By the way http://www.thespread.com/mlb-basebal...-betting-chart shows different public betting %, the sports insights one seems to only show number of bets, not dollar value. Don't worry about the RPI this early in the season.
                                                Last edited by liqidzen; 04-18-16, 06:39 PM.
                                                Comment
                                                • Louisvillekid1
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-17-07
                                                  • 52143

                                                  #25
                                                  The system critea makes sense

                                                  but nobody can't get accurate % of bet #'s

                                                  every sight different

                                                  impossible to track and I used to have sports insight line service
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Louisvillekid1
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 10-17-07
                                                    • 52143

                                                    #26
                                                    The dude is fading public favs when book is shading a higher total , it's really that simple

                                                    team a laying juice to team b but total high so shading scoring from both, of course dog is live

                                                    but impossible system to track
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Louisvillekid1
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 10-17-07
                                                      • 52143

                                                      #27
                                                      Plus doesn't specify when the 60% win comes into play team a 6-4 or what

                                                      this is has the feel of an after all star break type
                                                      Comment
                                                      • iloseagain
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 06-29-10
                                                        • 10682

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by liqidzen
                                                        Im betting on ARIZONA
                                                        and LA Angels
                                                        Because these are the first of the 3 games, I'll be playing them as an ABC chase. So far I have won every single bet I have placed this year using this system (up 15 units so far this year)
                                                        By the way http://www.thespread.com/mlb-basebal...-betting-chart shows different public betting %, the sports insights one seems to only show number of bets, not dollar value. Don't worry about the RPI this early in the season.
                                                        Where does this one show dollar value of bets?? Im confused
                                                        Comment
                                                        • iloseagain
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 06-29-10
                                                          • 10682

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                                          The dude is fading public favs when book is shading a higher total , it's really that simple

                                                          team a laying juice to team b but total high so shading scoring from both, of course dog is live

                                                          but impossible system to track
                                                          Yes. Im not sure if the 60% even really matters that much. I just like playing the system without that factor involved.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • liqidzen
                                                            SBR Hustler
                                                            • 04-07-15
                                                            • 88

                                                            #30
                                                            https://www.sportsinsights.com/free-mlb-odds/ shows % bets, http://www.thespread.com/mlb-basebal...-betting-chart I have to assume shows dollar value as they are different, but taking data from the same 6 sportsbooks that sportsinsights gathers data from. I hope so as I have been using this as my primary means of generating plays!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • liqidzen
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 04-07-15
                                                              • 88

                                                              #31
                                                              I have designed my system using betlabs software, which gathers statistical data. I went through all the possible criteria and tried to get the highest ROI%. Certain criteria are difficult to track, of course, keep in mind the betlabs software usually tracks it all for you if you want to shell out $250/month. This is a discussion to help us track these plays manually. We probably need to agree on whether we are using % of bets, or % of dollar value for 30% underdogs.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • liqidzen
                                                                SBR Hustler
                                                                • 04-07-15
                                                                • 88

                                                                #32
                                                                incidentally it looks like arizona is the paid pick for today on sports insights
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FlyinAir
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 07-14-14
                                                                  • 1612

                                                                  #33
                                                                  The following stats are true and current:

                                                                  In 2016 MLB Season to date of this post,
                                                                  DOGS are 11-11 50% (+12.0 ROI) when the TOTAL is 9 or HIGHER
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • FlyinAir
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 07-14-14
                                                                    • 1612

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Last season, when the total was 9 or higher, the O/U record was: 172-120-18 58.9% (+12.1 ROI)
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • iloseagain
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 06-29-10
                                                                      • 10682

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by FlyinAir
                                                                      The following stats are true and current:

                                                                      In 2016 MLB Season to date of this post,
                                                                      DOGS are 11-11 50% (+12.0 ROI) when the TOTAL is 9 or HIGHER
                                                                      is that +12 units? ROI is usually a %... NVM clearly not units haha
                                                                      Originally posted by FlyinAir
                                                                      Last season, when the total was 9 or higher, the O/U record was: 172-120-18 58.9% (+12.1 ROI)
                                                                      So any game where the total was 9 or higher, over hit at 59%? What is that +12.1 ROI mean in this case? If it were units, i imagine it would be higher.. Im confused here

                                                                      nvm its +12% id assume
                                                                      Comment
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