MLB - Monday, 4/4/16

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Monday

Twins / Orioles OVER 8.5 -118 (5 Dimes)
Dodgers / Padres OVER 5.5 -115 (Heritage)
Rockies +210 (Heritage)
Cubs / Angels OVER 6.5 -120 (Heritage)


YTD: 1-2, -0.10

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

San Francisco 61% (-156)
Washington 68% (-213)
Cincinnati 61% (-156)
Dodgers 63% (-170)
Arizona 64% (-178)

I bet against Arizona at +210.

[ATLIEN6]

Are the plays in post #1 ranked better than 60%?

[RavensFan2k3]

Are the plays in post #1 ranked better than 60%?

LT doesn't rank them, those 60%ers are his chance of winning, but he isn't about to lay those type of odds. I could be wrong though. Good luck everyone

[LT Profits]

Ravens nailed it, I only present the 60%ers because people ask for them. Note that I actually went against one of the 60%ers because the price looks good with Colorado at +210 vs. Arizona (model has Rockies +178).

[LT Profits]

Are the plays in post #1 ranked better than 60%?

Also, totals are never 60%+. If I do happen to come across one, I would ignore it because it would mean I missed something.

[ATLIEN6]

Also, totals are never 60%+. If I do happen to come across one, I would ignore it because it would mean I missed something.

Thank you for all the clarification.

[shaunovery]

Tailing here, very difficult to get the good lines as not allowed to play at Heritage or 5d

[LT Profits]

Tailing here, very difficult to get the good lines as not allowed to play at Heritage or 5d

Wow, Brits have it bad eh? Bookmaker switches to a dime line at about 10:00am ET each day but it has a low cut-off point and the Rockies are only +175 right now even after dimelines are up. And totals are full juice at 20 cents as far as I know just about everywhere outside of Heritage / 5D.

[blackHIPPY]

What's the lowest price you'd play the Rockies

[Da Manster!]

Hey LT,
did you ever consider teasing the totals and knocking a few runs off either direction?...Heritage is the only book that allows this and I've made a killing over the years doing it!...easy money!......so in your case, take your four best 60% games from the model and parlay them with teaser totals!...you should come out in the black when it's all said and done....

[jgold254]

4 MLB Plays Monday

Twins / Orioles OVER 8.5 -118 (5 Dimes)
Dodgers / Padres OVER 5.5 -115 (Heritage)
Rockies +210 (Heritage)
Cubs / Angels OVER 6.5 -120 (Heritage)


YTD: 1-2, -0.10

Tailing but replacing Rockies with Nationals. Was able to grab the money line at -170.

[MvA]

Thank you Lt for the 60ers

[Slipknot26]

Did anyone keep up with 60% last year or did you LT ?
Overall Record ?
Thank you very much

[agendaman]

LT in your best bet contest I chose the Yankees but game has been rained out what happens now

[LT Profits]

LT in your best bet contest I chose the Yankees but game has been rained out what happens now

Graded as a Push.

[LT Profits]

What's the lowest price you'd play the Rockies

I'd want at least +191, but don't see it available anywhere. So I would pass unless line goes back up.

[LT Profits]

Did anyone keep up with 60% last year or did you LT ?
Overall Record ?
Thank you very much

I did not no because I don't bet them myself.

[Slipknot26]

Thank you for answering
I'll keep up with this year , just want to verify if potential or not .
Thanks again

[l7ustin]

I love the 60 % ers

[blackHIPPY]

I love the 60 % ers

How do you bet them ?

[aortega521]

LT, how do you fee about getting Seattle at +110. Also where do you find those percentages that you post. I'd be interested in getting a subscription to that. Thanks for your contributions LT

[l7ustin]

By comparing the implied probability odds of number to the chance of winning percent. Most bet when they see value which is obvious but i will bet a lot of my action junkie smaller bets on fair odds with a high percent chance of winning.

[timmyd31]

Love SF today! Take ML on them...

[LT Profits]

LT, how do you fee about getting Seattle at +110. Also where do you find those percentages that you post. I'd be interested in getting a subscription to that. Thanks for your contributions LT

Percentages come from my model, not publicly available. And that Seattle line is almost exactly what I have, Texas 53% (-113)

[RavensFan2k3]

Ravens nailed it, I only present the 60%ers because people ask for them. Note that I actually went against one of the 60%ers because the price looks good with Colorado at +210 vs. Arizona (model has Rockies +178).

Yeah we appreciate you posting those, thanks.

[aortega521]

Percentages come from my model, not publicly available. And that Seattle line is almost exactly what I have, Texas 53% (-113)

Thanks LT, thought it was a kenpom subscription based model. But I always saw you posting percentages last year too so I figured it would be worth dropping some coin on it for the season. Who knows maybe a future business for you. Stand up quality work as always. Cheers.

[16kredit]

LT, does it only worth playing these 60% plays if we got similar odds to yours? I got much lower on it and i figured it will only be profitable in a season if I get odds high enough.

thank you and good luck

[POOLSIDE]

LT, does it only worth playing these 60% plays if we got similar odds to yours? I got much lower on it and i figured it will only be profitable in a season if I get odds high enough.

thank you and good luck

Those numbers, on a long enough timeline, are not worth playing. Look at it this way. If a team has a 60% chance of winning, they're winning three out of five times. The "correct" odds would be -150. That would be no advantage for the bettor or the house. To get that number, run the game five times. You'd have three wins for a total profit of 3.00 units and you'd have two losses for a total loss of 3.00 units. Break even.

If you've got a game that's a 60% win, you'd need to be laying less than -150 to have any value. I have no idea at what number LT would deem the game bettable, but anything under -150 technically has value. Assuming the 60% holds true, you'd even make a very small profit over time at -149. LT can chime in if he wants on where he believes value begins, as well as where he thinks there's "too much" value.

The flip side of that same game is obviously betting the dog. At 60% with +150 odds, the dog is break even. Same math as above, except we lose three at units a piece and win two at one and a half units a piece. If you're getting better than +150 on this game, there's value.

Obviously these numbers change depending if the game is 60% or 64% or 71% or whatever.

[BlueJaysNation]

Does your model take into account pitcher's stats by month? And also day vs night performance?

Because king felix is way more favoured than Hamels on both.

Historically, king felix has an ERA of 2.50 and WHIP 1.09 in April.

while Hamels ERA is 3.95 and WHIP 1.27

I think the mariners are worth a shot

[jgold254]

This rain delay should be good for the Orioles/Twins over 8.5... Starters will be knocked out to start the 3rd.

[sweethook]

baseball is your game ,I know this LT . do you play many run lines ?

[rc86]

might have to tail the rockies pick seeing how all the other 60%ers look like they are going to win

[LT Profits]

baseball is your game ,I know this LT . do you play many run lines ?

Well. I hit the +194 with Pirates opening day, but run lines are very rare for me.

[Mr. Teaser]

60%ers:

San Francisco 61% (-156)
Washington 68% (-213)
Cincinnati 61% (-156)
Dodgers 63% (-170)
Arizona 64% (-178)

I bet against Arizona at +210.

Thanks for posting the 60%ers again this year LT