4/17 adding
Royals (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
CWS/TB over 7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Royals (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
CWS/TB over 7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
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Comment -
ughh....annoying day...liked a lot of games that went as I expected and laid off....hate when that happens
day results: 1-2 -.98 units
this line stinks but I cant see myself not taking this being the only 11 am game, and I wont back boston in this spot so toronto it is
4/18
Blue Jays (+100) Risking 1 units to win 1 unitComment -
Why is everyone on this over in mets/phil? Why is this line not going up? I was hoping to get at 7.5 but penetrate it il ltake it a 7 for + money....phil will score 0 points....mets probably 4 at most
4/18
Mets/Phil Under 7 (+110) Risking 1 unit to win 1.1 units
Rockies (+123) Risking 1 unit to win 1.23 unitsComment -
Yesterday Results: 2-0-1 +2.23 units
Thread Total: 25-14 +9.12 units
4/19/16
Yankees TT Over 4 (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5 units
Rays (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Argh. yanks continue to struggle to get hits with RISP....really badly want to chase that TT over today but I will lay off...strong lean though
4/19 Results: 1-1 -.88 units
Happy 4/20
Angels FF +.5 (-105) Risking .53 units to win .5 units
Angels/CWS under 7 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Pit/Pads Over 7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Adding:
Seattle (+117) Risking 1 unit to win 1.17 unitsComment -
yesterday results: 3-1 +2.64 units
4/21
Milwaukee TT Over 4 (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5 units
2 Team Parlay (+120) Cubs + Giants. Risking 1 unit to win 1.2 unitsComment -
Adding
Blue Jays FF (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Day results: 1-2 -1.88 units
Comment -
Thread Total: 30-18 +9 unitsComment -
writeup for you all and my biggest bet of the season to date
4/22
Rays (-105) Risking 2.1 units to win 2 units
Ive been chomping at the bit to fade CC sabathia against a righty dominant lineup, and the day has finally come against this rays lineup. Yesterday the rays put out 8 righties against lefty price who doesnt even have splits that show he struggles against righties, so I expect them to do the same against the lefty CC because his splits show a different story. In the last 3 years, CC vs righties has averaged .373 wOBA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, 18.2 K%, and 6.5 BB%, compared to lefties he is .wOBA .264, xFIP 3.05, .95 WHIP, 28.6 K%, and 5.6 BB%. That is a huge distinct difference in numbers that clearly shows his struggles vs righties. Also CC's velo is down on all of his pitches this season from 1-3 mph and so far this season he has gotten away with throwing his cutter 36% of the time, which in years past was his worse pitch according to weighted values and he only threw it very rarely. Moore on the other side I am not worried about, he can hold his own and has shown some great stuff so far this season. He should do fine against this struggling yankee lineup. I will also take tampa TT over for a unit once it is released.Comment -
4/22/16 Adding
Rays TT Over 4 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units
SEA/LAA Under 7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unitsComment -
yesterday results: 1-2 -1.7 units
brutal game. moore was pitching superb, CC was pitching like shit but got out of jams. and still lose. I had to stop watching when the yanks stole home. I knew we were losing when that happened. just the way the cookie crumbles sometimes thats why I dont weight my bets larger than 2x....
anyways on to tmrw....one so far for the afternoon
4/23/16
Detroit (+110) Risking 1 unit to win 1.1 units
I get a real scary vibe from this game. all the numbers support detroirt quite heavily yet their home underdogs? in the past this has not been a good a sign. but Im always one to stick with the numbers and its quite clear detroit is the playComment -
Taking Det+1.5 and O7- bol sbucketComment -
Nice
got good number on line
Adding:
Twins (+115) Risking 1 unit to win 1.15 unitsComment -
ugh, pretty sure I can spot the bait but I just dont have the discipline to lay off it....I just dont understand how they know these things based off the available numbers.....Roark got 15 strikeouts against the hottest hitting team in the last 7 days....thats 75% more strikeouts than hes gotten all season in 3 games against teams that were struggling to hit....baseball makes you wonder sometimes...and teh question you need to ask yourself is do oddsmakers know this was going to happen? or are they just setting the table based on the market? either way they are usually spotable and I just got to learn to atleast lay off the bait
Adding:
Braves (+141) Risking 1 unit to win 1.41 units
Marlins (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Ice cold.
yesterday results: 0-4 -4.25 units
4/24/16:
Pirates (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Rays (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unitComment -
A much needed 2-0
+2 units
damned diamondbacks didnt wanna go away for a while I thought I was surely cursed
Thread Total: 33-24 +5.05 units
on to tmrw....Comment -
4/25
Braves (+135) Risking 1 unit to win 1.35 unitsComment -
Bol with braves you might need +1.5 here playing O8Comment -
shits red sox are probably just waking up from their plane flight back from houston. love me some garret richards this year although its a little scary betting with this shitty angels lineup. expect giants bats to fully wake up against the two pitch (should be in the bullpen) pitcher pomeranz. also miguel gonzalez should be going back to the minors soon. lets see if I can hit my first two team parlay of the season
Adding 4/25
Angels (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
2 team parlay: Giants and Bluejays (+130) Risking 1 unit to win 1.3 unitsComment -
bol bucket on breaking parlay maidenComment -
Yesterday Results: 1-2 -1 units
4/26
Braves (+190) Risking 1 unit to win 1.9 units
Phils/Nats Under 7 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Cards (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Astros FF (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Yesterday Results: 1-2-1 -1.35
Gonna try to slow it down a bit and not pick so many games
4/27
Athletics (+105) Risking 1 unit to win 1.05 unitsComment -
Taking a few days off to chill....will be back on the weekend
Thread Total: 35-29 +1.7 unitsComment -
ughhh gotta do one last play here...after I posted I glanced at card and feel obligated to bet this game since I been riding chacin all season and this is best opportunity to get him at great + odds.....may the gods be with us
4/28/16
Atlanta (+170) Risking 1 unit to win 1.7 units
but im officially gone tmrw and friday, no looking at numbers, scores, forums...im audi....see ya over the wkendComment -
4/28/16 Results: 1-0 +1.7 units
Had a nice refreshing day off after a nice +170 dog win and now its back to the numbers...seeing a few I already like for tmrw, will post more tmrw
4/30/16
Tigers (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Tigers should go on a little streak here their bats have been crushing it the last 3 games after going through a little bit of a slump. I watched them against sonny gray and they were just crushing everything even good pitches out of the zone. look for the trend to continue. Zimmerman is looking as good as ever this year throwing his slider 10% more often than years past and it has usually been his most effective pitch. Tyler Duffey is essentially a two pitch pitcher (which I love fading, but he throws a changeup 5% of the time if that counts) and alternates between his fastball and curve. Tigers lineup over the last two seasons are the 5th most effective team against curveballs hitting at a wCB/c 0.64 rate. I think this will be a low scoring game but Zimmm should pull out the win.Comment -
4/30 Adding
CWS/BAL FF Under 4.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
CWS FF (+150) Risking 1 unit to win 1.5 units
Some people say Latos is "due" for regression, but looking at his numbers I disagree. Why? Because pitchers are constantly evolving and changing things and Latos has become an elite pitcher over the last two seasons. He has learned to stay away from his changeup which has been his worst pitch and effectively use his splitfinger fastball which I love a starter with a good SF. He has learned which pitches to throw in different situations and is keeping hitters guessing. His contact% and (o-contact%) is at all an time high but hes creating poor contact, 28.8% of which are soft hit balls (thats 4th best in the league amongst starters). He has the 6th lowest LD% at 12.3%. His heatmaps will show that he is finnally learned to keep his splitfinger in the strike zone and has been able to distribute his pitches evenly throughout the strikezone (last year he was predicatbly living in the bottom of the strike zone and not keeping them strikes) Last year, he had a few games where he came out struggling badly but despite that he still ended the year with 3.69 xFIP. Sure he has been hit hard in the past by this orioles team but that was back in 2014 before he got his splitfinger and in that game he threw his awful changeup at an all time high 25% (why I do not know?). Theyve been pulling him early so lets go with the FF to be safe as I also love the Britton and the O's bullpen. Those who believe Latos is going to regress automatically point to his LOB% and BABIP, although this is sometimes the case, its not always the case with all pitchers as Arrieta sports a 95.2% LOB and .188 BABIP this season, yet I dont see anyone saying arrieta is due to regress. sometimes a pitchers stuff is just that nasty.Comment -
yesterdqya results: 1-2 -1.2
5/1
Cardinals (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
LAA/TX Under 8.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 unitsComment -
hit em hard bucket playing both too bolComment -
Adding
Yanks (+155) Risking .5 units to win .78 units
Bos TT Under 4 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Yesterday Results: 0-4 -3.85 units
5/2
Royals (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Braves (+190) Risking .5 units to win .95 units
Brewers (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Yesterday Results: 1-2 -.65 units
5/3
Tigers (+115) Risking 1 unit to win 1.15 unitsComment
