CK's Daily MLB Thread Leans for Tuesday 4/21/09

[Chi_archie]

texas does better then avg vs Haladay and the blue jays have been handcuffed by McCarthy in the past.... Texas is a very solid play here, as well as the over

[Euphoria38]

AS promised Parlay

White Sox ML -108
Pens ML +105

BOL

Reasons for Whitesox... well besides the fact that i have no pubic hair anymore... Contreras has a good lifetime ERA against Baltimore, and sox bats are hot against a rookie in his first major league start. Maybe even the Over 10 here.

Pens- I think the Penguins are better than the flyers and put away this series. Malkin is god.

[moneyline]

The Blue Jays have not been handcuffed by McCarthy ... has an ERA of around 5 against them. Watch it with the misinformation, my friend.

[danrman]

love the tex pick.. halladays next start is against a hot white sox team which will also lose tonight.. if your worried about the rangers hedge w/ the over.. if 1 or both of these dont hit i'll pay your bet for ya... so give me tex.,balt. cleve. fla.houston... st. louis blues... det. pistons small... jazz and portland big if things are materializing like i think they will

[moneyline]

Texas has won 2 of their last 9 games ... and not exactly against top flight competition. And they have several automatic outs in their lineup at the moment, including Salty and Davis ... this game is going to end up something like 8-3 Toronto -- don't be suckered, people.

(besides, it is not a heavy play and CK has made it obvious to everyone who reads his threads that he doesn't take anything but his heavy plays seriously)

[frankie2769]

Sox losing this one with the way they are hitting....? I think not.....I think Contreras will hold his own

[showtime2000]

2 plays in NHL,

Pittsburgh
Vancouver


GLA

[SportsChic]

Im on the Pens as well showtime..good luck babe!

[Euphoria38]

danrman: Reason for baltimore?

[BmoreBucco]

check that......laying the wood on the tigers today. once i looked at how swiss cheese the angels D is and
the pitching matchup, plus slow bats for the angels makes for a compelling case.

Solo, I respect your game so I'm going to tail you with Detroit. Little of that Spartans mojo will work.

MLB [977] DET -104 [Action]

Booked (Heavy)

[Chi_archie]

The Blue Jays have not been handcuffed by McCarthy ... has an ERA of around 5 against them. Watch it with the misinformation, my friend.

era vs team in the past doesn't matter.... as much as how CURRENT players and more importantly players in tonight's lineup do historically vs a pitcher...

current toronto players lifetime are .180/.305/.525 against McCarthy

but speaking of misinformation, friend....

his ERA lifetime vs toronto is more like 4 NOT "around 5"

good luck tonight

[Dexter]

Texas has won 2 of their last 9 games ... and not exactly against top flight competition. And they have several automatic outs in their lineup at the moment, including Salty and Davis ... this game is going to end up something like 8-3 Toronto -- don't be suckered, people.

(besides, it is not a heavy play and CK has made it obvious to everyone who reads his threads that he doesn't take anything but his heavy plays seriously)

ok moneyline - whats your deal man?

if you dont agree with the content thats in this thread (or the thread starters way of betting) why in the world do you keep coming here each day?

there are a million other threads to read and discuss sports if this one is not to your liking.

it is crystal clear to all that you have lost a hefty sum of money playing one of CK's "regular" plays - get over it, and lets get back to happy handicapping

[BmoreBucco]

Prop of the Day:

Chipper Jones is good. The Nats are bad.

Larry over 2.5 Hits + runs + RBIs

[Dexter]

era vs team in the past doesn't matter.... as much as how CURRENT players and more importantly players in tonight's lineup do historically vs a pitcher...

it absolutely does imo - as long as roughly the same core players exist.

ie...if i have a pitcher whos career era at hou the past 3 years is 9.00 - i will take that number seriously being that lee, berkman, pence (i believe hes yr 3) have been there for those past and now current games.

you have to know players, and cant blindly look at stats.

[moneyline]

Archie -- his ERA is 5 against Toronto in Toronto ... good luck to you as well.

[Dexter]

tue 4/21-

parra has started the year slow, and got shelled last year at citziens bank (5er in 1ip). moyer has been solid over his career vs the brewers - posting an era/whip of 2.82/1.14. the phils are 3-1 in moyers starts vs the brewers.

-phillies -120 (2x)

the dodgers look to be on their way to a great season with an awesome all around team. kershaw is already looking like an ace, and that could be scary for the nl west. ortiz is pure trash, and the sharps are all over la early.

-dodgers -160 (2x)

wellemeyer got pounded by the mets at home last year (6er in 5ip), and this smells like the type of game that perez will come with his plus stuff. give me the better team at a pickem. sharps hit this one as well.

-mets +100 (1x)

gallaraga has looked sensational to start the year, and it looks like 2008 was no fluke. weaver was solid in his first home start, and i like the slight early movement of this one. no vladdy for the angels.

-under angels 8.5/even (1x)

[tbill11]

Got a big card today:
Marlins -131
Padres -121
White Sox -112
Tigers -105
Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

Yes I know Bookmaker has awful baseball odds, but they're the only A book that accepted my credit card so...yeah. Haha. GL everyone.

[BmoreBucco]

ok moneyline - whats your deal man?

if you dont agree with the content thats in this thread (or the thread starters way of betting) why in the world do you keep coming here each day?

there are a million other threads to read and discuss sports if this one is not to your liking.

it is crystal clear to all that you have lost a hefty sum of money playing one of CK's "regular" plays - get over it, and lets get back to happy handicapping

Yeah, I'm a realist, and I think it is actually a compliment to CK and , in fact, every regular here that is trying to be productive with this thing, that this dude finds this thread important enough to take time out of his day to talk smack.

[Dexter]

The Blue Jays have not been handcuffed by McCarthy ... has an ERA of around 5 against them. Watch it with the misinformation, my friend.

whoa, whoa.....moneyline - thats not how we roll in this thread man.

if your not only going to criticize people, but also act like a jerk - then please go find another thread.

thats not how we talk sports in here dude.

[Euphoria38]

God both of you shut the **** up and agree to disagree. I got in a stupid arguement over shoebox because I used the term "gook". Everyone chill the **** out and voice your opinion. I enjoy reading other peoples opinions even if they arent the same as mine. Free Speech bitch.

[Chi_archie]

Brandon pitching in Toronto basically amounts to 2006 as a reliever against guys like reed johnson, hinske, glaus, molina, zaun, mcdonald

he STARTED twice there in 07 against the same group, plus guys like thomas and stairs...

had 1 good outing 1 bad...

had 1 great outing against them in chicago.... but like I said i'll take my chances with him facing a team that only has 1 career extra base hit against him in their careers.... vs what he did against a completely different set of faces in 06 and 07

[Dexter]

Guys are looking for a free chicken dinner in Toronto. This game has all the makings of an upset. 81% on one side that has a moneyline over -150 with slight reverse movement, reverse movement on the total, a team that just won their first game in a long time setting out on a road trip and playing in their first game. This is a whacky line and I am taking the fishy team and rolling against the public. I knew that there would be good crumbs on this one two days ago when I talked about it

i like this play, as halladay has always had a tough time with texas. both games in tor last year were rough for halladay, and this line has dropped from 230 to 210.

im gonna put a small bet on tex as well...(carjacked

[BmoreBucco]

God both of you shut the **** up and agree to disagree. I got in a stupid arguement over shoebox because I used the term "gook". Everyone chill the **** out and voice your opinion. I enjoy reading other peoples opinions even if they arent the same as mine. Free Speech bitch.

Dude, how about you take your own advice and "chill the **** out"

This isn't 8th grade.

[Euphoria38]

Why not just play +1.5 on Texas for safety, since their bullpen is shit.

[Chi_archie]

it absolutely does imo - as long as roughly the same core players exist.

ie...if i have a pitcher whos career era at hou the past 3 years is 9.00 - i will take that number seriously being that lee, berkman, pence (i believe hes yr 3) have been there for those past and now current games.

you have to know players, and cant blindly look at stats.

exactly my point... the same core group DOES NOT exist.... rios and wells are about the only hold overs..... so in this case individual pitcher/batter information is more important

[Euphoria38]

Look "rats" fan, dont start taking shots at me because i put you in your place first. This thread is for voicing your opinions on your handicapping picks, not bitching and acting like a jack ass.

[Dexter]

Why not just play +1.5 on Texas for safety, since their bullpen is shit.

i dont wanna lay -120. rather take a shot that they'll win outright and get back 2/1.

[Dexter]

exactly my point... the same core group DOES NOT exist.... rios and wells are about the only hold overs..... so in this case individual pitcher/batter information is more important

i hear ya - but that is/has been the middle of the jays lineup for the most part.

[Euphoria38]

Thats a good risk. You could also hedge yourself a little. Anyways, I think Texas is a good calculated risk this evening.

[BmoreBucco]

Had to fade my boys, Ryan Doumit out of that lineup hurts badly. It changes the whole dynamic of the team. He's the one guy they couldn't afford to lose. Fade the Pirates guys.

[Chi_archie]

rios 0-7
wells 1-6
against McCarthy lifetime

like you said, know the players AND the stats

[Chi_archie]

Had to fade my boys, Ryan Doumit out of that lineup hurts badly. It changes the whole dynamic of the team. He's the one guy they couldn't afford to lose. Fade the Pirates guys.

I'm very upset about this too....

with the sudden above avg, dare I say GREAT pirate pitching to start the season, and Laroche's atypical april start.... I was starting to allow myself a sliver of hope that the buccos MIGHT make a run for 81 this year.....

[BmoreBucco]

Look "rats" fan, dont start taking shots at me because i put you in your place first. This thread is for voicing your opinions on your handicapping picks, not bitching and acting like a jack ass.

Yes, I am a "rats" fan and if they ever win I'll enjoy it more than any baseball fan ever. That said, I wasn't trying to take a shot at you, just asking you to take your own advice.

I visit for the knowledge, just like you.

[BmoreBucco]

I'm very upset about this too....

with the sudden above avg, dare I say GREAT pirate pitching to start the season, and Laroche's atypical april start.... I was starting to allow myself a sliver of hope that the buccos MIGHT make a run for 81 this year.....

Yeah, it hurts bad, but at least we have McCutchen, Alvarez and Tabata waiting in the wings. Hoping Walker will live up to the hype as well.

[kmarinouofm]

ok i somehow got the rangers team total over 3 at -130... which kinda worries me that everyone else got it at 3.5