CK's Daily Baseball Thread Friday 4/17/09

[mcbaseball10]

Astros ML

Take a look at Astros at home against young Reds teams.

(From the Dayton Daily News)
The Reds face RHP Roy Oswalt, whose lifetime record against the Reds is 23-1.

At -145 I think it is still worth a look.

[Jimbo42]

A couple of series plays for this weekend...
Booked:

Detroit +135 for the series
Washington +145 for the series

GL to all

[CUAIrish]

morning fellas, so no play on either of these afternoon crumbs?

I can see laying off joba but i feel like zambrano is a play, cards can hit just trying to see the thoughts behind these.

[sportsguy04]

Unreal. My book takes the RL off for the Cards/CUBS game. Im not laying -179 for Cubs.

[peterpan19]

ok guys another nice day yesterday...so lets see what we have here today:
CWS
oh yes Colon is back to his old form and he is 3-1 with an 3.00 ERA in TB... and dont forget the Rays wouldnt even hit my fastballs right now (just kidding on that one)...Shields or not...I am going with the hot bats here today...

SD (still thinking about 5 Innings or not)
Young is.... well pitching like Young even if its not in SD today...Hamels not 100% right now...SD scored 6 runs in 4 of their last 5 games... hell yeah give me the hot bats plus the pitcher I trust right now... dont know if I will go with the game or 5 Innings only...I think if Hamels really sucks ass he will do it early and Young will pitch good enough in the first 5 Innings...so maybe I split my wager here today...

Tor -1
going with the hot hitting Blue Jays here today...i know its early but Oak struggled so far against Lefties...only 1-3 so far...plus they won a series at home against Boston...but now they should come back to earth...

TX
this game could get ugly for both pitchers early...as Harrison struggled early on and Meche has devastating numbers against Texas on the road (8+ ERA, and 2-6 record)... I take the home team here today...

ARZ -1
both teams played horrbile as of late... but Haren well he pitched like an ace should pitch...but no help from his offense...but today we have Sanchez on the other side who has an 8.56 ERA vs Arizona (7 starts)...so they should score some runs and help Dan here today to get his first win of the season...

ok thats it guys for today

GL (and as for the early games I like NYY -1 and CHC -1... but I am not playing them...too much juice for me and I hate to play -1.5)

and might throw some money on cks heavy plays too... they are perfect or almost perfect this mlb season...so GL to everybody whos playing ATl and Min today

[roadwarrior1]

Braves at +104 now...................

[2daBank]

i cant lay off joba gettin that good +190 money w the tribe i figure good or bad joba only going 5 or so then we get shot at yanks shacky middle relief. may hedge w da over as if spanks win it will be w a offensive explosion. gl 2 all

[Kav]

Braves at +104 now...................

damnit shouldn't have bought them so quick last night.

[peterpan19]

mhhh...ATL line is plus money now...ok so we have injuries for the Braves or is it RLM...hard to tell right now...I still see 60% on ATL but money is coming in for Pit right now... dont know if ck already played it...but plus money is tempting...

btw min is -113 right now...

[roadwarrior1]

lready moving the other way +107.................im getting in now.

[UnDeRDaWg]

damn..my book only has atlanta at -105

[roadwarrior1]

sorry......i meant still moving to plus money.....

[UnDeRDaWg]

My picks are

Washington ML
Houston ML
Arizona ML
Atlanta ML
Chicago Cubs ML

NYY Over team total 5
Padres Over team total 3.5

Write ups are on my thread ...any feedback would be appreciated

[sweetjones55]

Whats the consensus on Houston. That Roy Oswalt stat is unreal, 23-1 vs the Reds

[peterpan19]

UnDeRDaWg
dont you think laying -170 on the Cubs is a bit too much ?... play them on the RL if you think they win big, but dont lay that much...just dont... I mean I think the Cubs win too, but not laying -170 on them

GL (rest looks ok)

[UnDeRDaWg]

I dont like playing RL's unless its a dawg. My book has Cubs at -177 right now..could go down...

[CUAIrish]

Believe my opening line was +118 on nats, down to +113. Anyone playing that?

[peterpan19]

or at least play the Cubs -1 if your book offers it...

GL

[UnDeRDaWg]

thanks dude..book doesnt offer it...gl2u2

[UnDeRDaWg]

I may just play the runline in the Cubs game...looking at it more closely, my reasoning for playing them today is because of the inexperience in the opposing pitcher. Based on that fact alone, it wont be pitchers duel, and the cubbies would win by more than just a run...im on it peterpan

[BmoreBucco]

Afternoon leans:

I think Joba comes to play today and I've always liked Reyes ability and stuff. No Nady or A-rod has the Yanks line-up looking pretty weak.

Yanks/Indians under 9 (-120)

In two home starts against the Cards last season, Zambrano allowed 17 runs and 16 hits in six innings (five long-balls). Add to that the Cards bats are pretty hot and I see the Cards line as plenty valuable. I'll admit, I know nothing about the kid pitching for the Cards. I bet the Cubs hitters don't either.

Cards +166

[laxdjock]

Braves-118 HEAVY

Jurrjens is solid. I had this one circled because I love Jurrjens as a pitcher, a soon to be solid #2.

At first, I was torn between the side and the total. One thing that I do know is that this is definitely NOT pitcher's duel. The last team at bat may win this one.

Milwaukee/NY Mets over 9.5

I'm leaning on the team totals....as El Duque has the potential to give up 3-4 runs, he tends to be tougher early on in the season. I think I am going to look at the team totals instead, most likely the Mets.

Twins-120 HEAVY
Twins-1.5 +170

Tempted by the RL, as they definitely can play better.

[laxdjock]

I see that Lannan is pitching for the Nats tomorrow. Am I missing something?

Anyway,on another subject... when Redding makes it back from injury, he will be the Mets best pitcher by far. All that he needed is some run production behind him and presto! 15 game winner. Just add water.

I'm sorry, but he's been a trainwreck since they signed him. His velocity is way down (mid 80's at best), his control has been off, and he lacks durability.

[UnDeRDaWg]

two plays booked

Cubs runline
Yankess first 5 innings

Decided to lay off Yankee team total bec my book has it at 5..think thats a bit high.
I think Joba keeps them in the game, whether or not the bullpen holds is another story. GL all..have some stuff to do...be back in a few hours.

[kmarinouofm]

Friday's Team Totals

So i thought last night I would be making less plays.. but instead I am truly in love with all my picks so far and even added two more
so here they are.. i will be playing 3 big and the rest regular..


cards over 4

cleveland over 3.5

Pitt over 3.5 big!!!

San diego over 3.5 big!!

tigers over 3.5 big!!!

Marlins over 4.5 /4 I can't pick a side on this game so i am going with the total.. need some action on my fish!!

Brewers over 4

Toronto over 4/4.5

**adding baltimore over 4.5 -105 for half a unit**

Good luck everyone and lets make it another big day...

[MrMonkey]

Hamels looks like the more likely victim. The Cubs have a good hitting pitcher facing a farm hand that has been called up, and they need a home win. A Cubs play on the runline would be in order for those wishing to play that game. I smell a blowout despite Zambrano's struggles with the big chalk. The Cardinals are basically reshuffling their pitchers due to Carpenters' latest injury. I have a strong feeling that the Cubs 1st half would be a good play as I don't think that they have any sympathy for the Red Birds, their arch rivals. Matter of fact, if the Cubs win this game handily, they will win the next game also and take the series.



Now Hamels is in a bad spot because Young is a good pitcher and obviously the Fathers are hitting the ball well right now. I don't think that Hamels is all the wy back from his off season injury, and he will hae problems for a while. The Phillies are definitely having the blues that usually accompany a team after they have won the World Series winner the following year. Every team that plays them is using them as the measuring stick. I say fade Hamels until he gets back into form. Perhaps a play on the Padres team total may do the trick.

Haven't started betting the bases yet but being from Philly know alittle on the Phils and CK is right on with Hamels! Fastball was 91-92 mph last year and now clocking 86-87 and management trying to stay positive! Doesn't seem like alot but when changeup is your out pitch need more on fastball to fool hitters!

Don't know where you would find out his velocity from previous games but IMO wait till the heater gets some more on it!

MrMonkey

[MrMonkey]

Not alot to go on but C. Young is 2-1 with 1.96 ERA in 3 career starts against the Phils!

MrMonkey

[SmackdownV]

P WALTERS vs. C ZAMBRANO


Come on! This is either a Cubs OVER play @ 9.5 or CUBS ML BIG.

Am I missing something or am I pretty much right on?

[sportsguy04]

p walters vs. C zambrano


come on! This is either a cubs over play @ 9.5 or cubs ml big.

am i missing something or am i pretty much right on?

rl! +110

[TheLemonDropKid]

I hope I didn't just screw up big time......


I'm trying to make room to go big on CK's plays later.....but to do so I'm using the last of my bankroll on these early games.

I took:
NYY -1.5
CHI -1.5

and parlayed NYY, CHI to win.

I hate being in this situation......I didn't know if I should wait and go all-in with CK's plays or go all-in now and have more to play on CK's plays later.

COME ON YANKS AND CUBS....PLEASE DON'T FAIL ME!!!!

[peterpan19]

TLD

GL bro...I just hope your safe...but really all in...can you reload some money for the later games or is it if you loose ?

[peterpan19]

oh boy...not looking good for the Yanks early on....

[laxdjock]

The Yanks look like a sinking ship.....BUT they have enough bats to slug it out. I missed playing my CLE RL, but it is probably just as well, I have other games I feel better about.

[TheLemonDropKid]

TLD

GL bro...I just hope your safe...but really all in...can you reload some money for the later games or is it if you loose ?

I'm all in........no re-loading.

[Flyers09]

yakees , never will i bet on them again after what happened yesterday.....

cubs first 5, under im thinking..anyone think different?