MLB - Thursday, 7/23/15

[unusialsusp5]

I mentioned the regression (and said "may have begun") because his rest-of-season ZiPS only has him with a 5.08 ERA and 4.73 FIP. Now, I have no idea why that would be, but it is what it is. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...120&position=P

yes,you did say regression "may have begun" but put absolutely no stock in fan graphs trying to predict the future. will stay clear of that site. misleading and confusing. i can predict the future in that if hanley ramirez continues to play left field (or continues to be a statue out in left field) he will cost the team an extra half a dozen games.

[LT Profits]

NO PLAY on Toronto / A's Over, Kazmir scratched.

[LT Profits]

yes,you did say regression "may have begun" but put absolutely no stock in fan graphs trying to predict the future. will stay clear of that site. misleading and confusing. i can predict the future in that if hanley ramirez continues to play left field (or continues to be a statue out in left field) he will cost the team an extra half a dozen games.

ZiPS is not affiliated with fangraphs, it is its own service. Fangraphs lists several projections from several sites with ZiPS being one of them.

Also, most cappers that use sabremetrics will disagree with you regarding fangraphs, it is a go-to for advanced stats

[VtecMouse]

LT, whats your take on the Toronto Oakland over 8? I feel like Dickey gets tee'd off on against anyone he plays!

[LT Profits]

LT, whats your take on the Toronto Oakland over 8? I feel like Dickey gets tee'd off on against anyone he plays!

Note that I had the Over before Kazmir got traded. After plugging in Pomeranz I get 8.4. too close to the total

[Big Bear]

so your model says Pomeranz is better than Kazmir?

maybe you and Billy Beane are on the same page.

[wfoster2]

Thoughts on Washington? Pirates have really been struggling

[unusialsusp5]

ZiPS is not affiliated with fangraphs, it is its own service. Fangraphs lists several projections from several sites with ZiPS being one of them.

Also, most cappers that use sabremetrics will disagree with you regarding fangraphs, it is a go-to for advanced stats

no doubt that they would disagree. prefer old school methods.

[Big Bear]

Not quite true, model uses default lineups.

i gotcha

[wfoster2]

LAA over isn't looking so hot right now

[LT Profits]

no doubt that they would disagree. prefer old school methods.

Yes, that is a difference between us. Model is primarily sabre-based.

[Pick'nParlays]

Twins putting 3 up...

[marktb68]

typical. I missed the start time of twins game. story of my life.

[dirtycash66]

absolutely do not want to bash, criticize or troll LT. understand that his model works over the long run. gives him value (on mainly underdogs, which you should only play in this sport) agree that LAA line is way too high to play today, but they're not going to lose this with houston nipping at their heels. simply just parlay angels/astros and call it a day.

[tragicend]

Glad bovada was down and I wasn't able to take angels or tigers. Good call LT...now you REALLY got me re-thinking taking the Astros tonight.

[BamaCBass]

Boom on Twins! Perception does NOT = reality! Will be interesting too if pitching change in Oakland results in an under after all.

Nice work!

[ctine2020]

absolutely do not want to bash, criticize or troll LT. understand that his model works over the long run. gives him value (on mainly underdogs, which you should only play in this sport) agree that LAA line is way too high to play today, but they're not going to lose this with houston nipping at their heels. simply just parlay angels/astros and call it a day.

No way the Angels lose you say...

[El Sol]

Perception does NOT = reality!
Nice work!

This is the exact reason Books are profitable. Most bet with their heart, and when their best Team loses against a team that sucks they chalk it up to the game being "Fixed" ignoring variance, ignoring reality

Life is 10% reality, 90% perception. Sports betting is no different

[BlueJaysNation]

Hey LT, is Samardzija at +125 worth the shot?

[RavensFan2k3]

This is the exact reason Books are profitable. Most bet with their heart, and when their best Team loses against a team that sucks they chalk it up to the game being "Fixed" ignoring variance, ignoring reality

Life is 10% reality, 90% perception. Sports betting is no different

Someone who gets it

[oldscho0led]

LT, your thought on the Red Sox/Astros Over?

[unusialsusp5]

No way the Angels lose you say...

didn't think they would. never fade a profit pick.

[LT Profits]

didn't think they would. never fade a profit pick.

Unfortunately was the only game I won, 1-3, -1.49 day.