Beat the closing line MLB 2015

[Covy]

Tigers -127
Dodgers -125
Rays -137
Mets +125

The lines usually change within minutes of sharing with others privately

[Covy]

Also added Marlins/Backs u7.5 -110

[RavensFan2k3]

Mets was the first game that stood out to me

[RollinDo]

With you on Tigers...now -136...booking it.

Also Under in Mets - Nats, TB - Philly, and StL - ChiSox.

Houston ML too.

[BOA12]

wash u7 -130 looks solid but taking phl +1.5 in a close game hou ml and az u7- sd ml bol

[RollinDo]

wash u7 -130 looks solid but taking phl +1.5 in a close game hou ml and az u7- sd ml bol

Yes, I am taking Hou ML, Det ML
Mia - Zona (U 7.5)
StL - ChiSox (U 8)
Cle-Mil (U 8.5) -113
TB - Phils (U 8)
NY - Wash (U 7) -113
Tor TT (U 3)
Maybe AtL +1.5

Lots of plays Wed...hoping to break out of mini 2 - day slump

[RollinDo]

Of course 5Dimes is having server issues, so only one I booked was Wash (U 7) -113.
The line for Mia-Zona gonna jump soon I believe.

[RollinDo]

This is a nice daily thread Covy!

Book 2 Unders and a side...

NY Mets - Nats (U 7) -113
Mia - Zona (U 7) -118
Detroit ML -134

[Covy]

Some quality plays in here. Most should beat the close line but some seem like they will reverse

[RollinDo]

Some quality plays in here. Most should beat the close line but some seem like they will reverse

Yeah...I love the Under in Milwaukee...not sure why every time Anderson pitches for Tribe the total is at 8 or higher.

[RavensFan2k3]

...

[Covy]

Bullpens bite me in both losses so far today...should split the final 2 games tonight at worst

Cant see too many plays tomorrow...starting to look now

all my plays are 1 unit apiece

[RollinDo]

Tough day so far.
Need a couple Unders and Tigers to come through.

[leetreaper]

Beat the closing line lol...it's like a first kiss, no clue what you are doing.

[Covy]

Beat the closing line lol...it's like a first kiss, no clue what you are doing.

You can look at it that way if you want.
Average bettor loses $4.76 of every $100 they bet due to vig on -110 juice assuming they're not doing parlays etc.
Late bettor who gets the -120 juice loses $9.10 on every $100 they bet.

Lets say 365 bets and both guys hit 50%. Average guy loses $1737 plus change but late guy loses $3321 plus change. Huge difference. But you don't care what line you get, because "hey, it's still the same play no matter the juice"

Got 220 to win 200 on marlins u 7.5 -110. Currently u 7 -125. To buy to 7.5 would take it to -165. You could win the same as me if it goes under, or I can lose 110 bucks less than you if you put down 330 to win 200 at -165 odds.

[leetreaper]

You can look at it that way if you want.
Average bettor loses $4.76 of every $100 they bet due to vig on -110 juice assuming they're not doing parlays etc.
Late bettor who gets the -120 juice loses $9.10 on every $100 they bet.

Lets say 365 bets and both guys hit 50%. Average guy loses $1737 plus change but late guy loses $3321 plus change. Huge difference. But you don't care what line you get, because "hey, it's still the same play no matter the juice"

Got 220 to win 200 on marlins u 7.5 -110. Currently u 7 -125. To buy to 7.5 would take it to -165. You could win the same as me if it goes under, or I can lose 110 bucks less than you if you put down 330 to win 200 at -165 odds.

Wasn't trolling but you need to concentrate more on getting more winners i.e. improving ROI rather the closing number. When you improve that objective getting a better number is not gonna be that big of a problem, i.e expanding your shops, overnight lines, etc etc

[Covy]

Wasn't trolling but you need to concentrate more on getting more winners i.e. improving ROI rather the closing number. When you improve that objective getting a better number is not gonna be that big of a problem, i.e expanding your shops, overnight lines, etc etc

Gotcha.

Should've mentioned that these plays are calculated based on discrepancies between the estimated winning percentages and the current lines. I see the lines shift towards that number I had

[stevenash]

Hypothetical

Nationals with Max are at home in DC versus Greinke and the Dodgers.
You love the Nationals with Max in this spot and on your lunch break at 1:20 pm the line is Nats -138.
You bang in a dime and lay 1380/1000 figuring that is the best number you are going to get.

You get home from work, it's 5:30 pm and the line is Nats -134.
You are a little peeved because you could have saved 40 bucks if the Nats lose.

Come 7:05 pm, first pitch in two minutes line closes at Nationals -142.

You beat the closing line at 1:20 pm, could have beaten the closing line a little better at dinner time, but you still beat the closing line.

I hate that expression 'beat the closing line',
It's more about getting the best possible number, nobody knows what the closing number will be at 7:00 pm at lunch time.
Max could pull a groin an hour before first pitch. you are golden if you bet LA at noon time if Max has to be replaced with Tanner Roarke

[Covy]

Cards Royals u7 +100
Pirates ML -159
Dodgers -190
Blue Jays +105

[Covy]

Max could pull a groin an hour before first pitch. you are golden if you bet LA at noon time if Max has to be replaced with Tanner Roarke

That's why I make sure the listed pitchers start before the bet has action...

[No coincidences]

Beating a closing number in baseball by 20+ cents is the kiss of death.

[stevenash]

^
or so it seems

[Covy]

Beating a closing number in baseball by 20+ cents is the kiss of death.

Funny you say that. Had a stretch of 2 weeks in May where every line I really beat had poor results, even with the calculations in my favor-right matchups etc. Law of averages.

[YouHave2outs]

If you are beating closing lines, you will win in the long run.

[No coincidences]

If you are beating closing lines, you will win in the long run.

Proof?

I used to subscribe to that theory. I'm either incredibly unlucky, or it's a fallacy.

[RollinDo]

I like a few Unders...

KC - StL (U 7)
Balt TT (U 3)
M's TT (U 3.5)
Mets TT (U 3)
Angels -1 (why not...I never bet them and they just keep winning!)
Oakland ML (-105)...don't get this lime at all.

Too tired to research...spending too much time doing the same thing...only to have 1 or 2 bad beats per day to go from a winning day to losing one.

[Covy]

Tigers -127
Dodgers -125
Rays -137
Mets +125

The lines usually change within minutes of sharing with others privately

2-2

Also added Marlins/Backs u7.5 -110

0-1

Cards Royals u7 +100
Pirates ML -159
Dodgers -190
Blue Jays +105

2-0-2

4-3 +.57 units
(1 push/1 cancel due to SP change)
public wouldve been: 4-3 +.25 units(based off of 5d closing lines)

[Covy]

Putting up 4 plays in 10-15 mins.

lines will jump immediately so be on the lookout...will edit this post and add them

Giants/As o7 -105
Dbacks ML -123
Cards ML -168
red Sox ML -130

[RollinDo]

Mlb has been brutal...was all set for a nice payday when bullpens implode in Houston.
2-1 after 7 and I had Under 8 parlayed with Seattle TT (U 3.5).
I did hedge a little, do only lost .5 units total. Cards Under pushed...really could have used that Under 7, as I had it pretty big.
Grinding grinding and getting nowhere, but just losing a little each day thankfully.

Really miss hockey.

[RollinDo]

At a quick glance, my top Unders are:

Hou - KC (U 8.5)...really??
Chi Sox - Tribe (U 7)
Wash - Pitt (U 6.5)
Balt - TB (U 7)....
Maybe NYY - Minn (U 8) and A's - Giants (U 7)

[RollinDo]

Here are my top 4 now...

Balt - TB (U 7)
Wash - Pitt (U 6.5)
Hou - KC (U 8.5)
LAD - NY Mets (U 6.5)

[Covy]

You're hitting the unders hard.

amy reason why?

[RollinDo]

You're hitting the unders hard.

amy reason why?

Can't pick Overs...lifetime 10% on Overs.
If I had to guess, 5 of 40 in my career.
Close to 57% on Unders...but with the juice, it's like breaking even.

Just hoping I hit 3 of 4 of these.
Sides on mlb are harder than any other sport IMO.

[BamaCBass]

Proof?

I used to subscribe to that theory. I'm either incredibly unlucky, or it's a fallacy.

Would love to see what the numbers say. Maybe I'll take a look if I have the time.

[Covy]

Cards -180
Rays u 7 +105
Angels -148