MLB 2nd Half Strategy - +318u last 3 years

[sportsbetter21]

Feel free to correct this
todays texas C bet is +1.5 at -235
A $10 unit provides the following
7/7 $10 at -220 = $22 loss
7/8 $60 at -185 = $82 loss (I calculated $60 at -185 wins $32. $42 to win $22 + 18 to win $10)
7/10 $263 at -235 = $112 ( I calculated $240 at -235 wins $102 to win a and b loss + $23 to win $10)

Rangers win +10
Rangers lose by 2 = -$333 (-33 units)

Its all good as long as you know what your getting yourself into. This is why its called gambling.
Best of luck today!!!!

[ledjend]

TODAY 7/10


- CHC A bet - currently -151, play Mondy Line (405 est)
- Was B bet - currently +117, play Run Line +1.5 at -175 (705 est)
- Tex C bet - currently -137, play Money Line (805 est)
- Atl B bet - currently -121, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (810)
- Atl B bet (vs Col) - currently -121, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (810)
- LAA B bet (vs Sea) - currently -121, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 -260 (1010)


If you're uncomfortable with really high juice like the Angels game currently has, there's always the option of live betting. Sometimes you can get a much better price - but on the flip side, if they get off to a good start you're probably screwed.

I don't use or recommend this strategy because you run the risk of missing out on winners - but under the right circumstances, it may be of use.



*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.


Good luck!

[sportsbetter21]

Feel free to correct this
todays texas C bet is +1.5 at -235
A $10 unit provides the following
7/7 $10 at -220 = $22 loss
7/8 $60 at -185 = $82 loss (I calculated $60 at -185 wins $32. $42 to win $22 + 18 to win $10)
7/10 $ at --13 = $112 ( I calculated $240 at -235 wins $102 to win a and b loss + $23 to win $10)

Rangers win +10
Rangers lose by 2 = -$333 (-33 units)

Its all good as long as you know what your getting yourself into. This is why its called gambling.
Best of luck today!!!!

Feel free to correct this
todays texas C bet is +1.5 at -235
A $10 unit provides the following
7/7 $10 at -220 = $22 loss
7/8 $60 at -185 = $82 loss (I calculated $60 at -185 wins $32. $42 to win $22 + 18 to win $10)
7/10 $153= $112 ( I calculated $140 wins $103 to win a and b loss + $13 to win $10)

Rangers win +10
Rangers lose = -$216 (21.6 units)

Its all good as long as you know what your getting yourself into. This is why its called gambling.
Best of luck today!!!!

[ledjend]

Feel free to correct this
todays texas C bet is +1.5 at -235
A $10 unit provides the following
7/7 $10 at -220 = $22 loss
7/8 $60 at -185 = $82 loss (I calculated $60 at -185 wins $32. $42 to win $22 + 18 to win $10)
7/10 $263 at -235 = $112 ( I calculated $240 at -235 wins $102 to win a and b loss + $23 to win $10)

Rangers win +10
Rangers lose by 2 = -$333 (-33 units)

Its all good as long as you know what your getting yourself into. This is why its called gambling.
Best of luck today!!!!

If the C bet ends up at -235 and we lose, my calculations have it as a 29.55 unit loss.

However, Texas is currently -137 - which would be a money line play. Total unit loss would be 20.61.

Losses are going to happen. There's been at least 5 every year. Which is why money management is so important - especially when you're chasing.

[Jellybeans]

checking in

Numbering the plays or 3 game series may be also an option, so tracking would be easier.
Thanks for testing and sharing, but since it is called 2nd half, would you not start plays after the All-Star break?
Looking forward to a profitable season.

[ledjend]

Numbering the plays or 3 game series may be also an option, so tracking would be easier.
Thanks for testing and sharing, but since it is called 2nd half, would you not start plays after the All-Star break?
Looking forward to a profitable season.

I'll keep the numbering in mind.

First half (to me) = April, May, June
Second half (to me) = July, August, September

Strategy starts July 1st.

Thanks for the post!

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 7/10

Flat Betting (Entered day 20-13, -3.3 u)

- CHC at -155 - Loss
- Atl +1.5 at -205 - Loss
- Atl +1.5 at -205 - Loss
- Was +1.5 - Win
- Texas - Win
- LAA - Win


3-3, -2.65 u on day

Year to date - 23-16, -5.95 u



Chase (Entered day 19-1, +4.5u)

- Atl B bet - Loss
- Atl B bet (vs Col) - Loss
- CHC A bet - Loss
- Was B bet - Win
- Tex C bet - Win
- LAA B Bet (vs Sea) - Win

Year to date - 22-1, +7.5u

[ledjend]

TODAY 7/11


- CHC B bet - currently -109, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at -210 (405 est)
- Atl C bet - currently +152, play Run Line +1.5 at -140 (410 est)
- Atl C bet (vs Col) - currently +152, play Run Line +1.5 at -140 (410 est)
- Was A bet - currently +115, play Run Line +1.5 -190 (715 est)
- Phi A bet - currently +176, play Run Line +1.5 at -135 (1005 est)
- LAD A bet - currently -129, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at -260 (1010 est)




*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.


Good luck!

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 7/11

Flat Betting (Entered day 23-16, -5.95 u)

- CHC +1.5 at -210 - Loss
- LAD at -144 - Loss
- Phi +1.5 at -125 - Loss
- Atl +1.5 - Win
- Atl +1.5 - Win
- Was - Win

3-3, -1.79 u on day

Year to date - 26-19, -7.74 u



Chase (Entered day 22-1, +7.5u)

- Phi A bet - Loss
- LAD A bet - Loss
- CHC B bet - Loss
- Atl C bet - Win
- Atl C bet (vs Col) - Win
- Was A Bet - Win

Year to date - 25-1, +10.5u

[ledjend]

TODAY 7/12


- Cle A bet - currently -120, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (110 est)
- Cin A bet - currently -154, play Money Line (110 est)
- CHC C bet - currently -165, play Money Line (220 est)
- SD A bet (vs Tex) - currently +120, play Run Line +1.5 at -180 (305 est)
- Phi B bet - currently +191, play Run Line +1.5 at -110 (405 est)
- LAD B bet - currently -167, play Money Line (410 est)
- Col A bet (vs Atl) - currently -118, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at not listed yet (410 est)
- St L A bet - currently +145, play Run Line +1.5 at -155 (805 est)


Wanted to make sure I got these out to you guys now because Sunday's my sleep-in day. Good luck and good night!



*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[BOA12]

really enjoy the alt run aspect thanks for sharing

[keel44]

I know it looks bad right now, but if you try to chase all of these plays at the same time, you might run out of bankroll to do it.

Flat betting isn't working right now because the picks are hitting at 57% and I believe the average odds are higher than expected.

If you wanna chase this, you better chase to win a 1/2 unit or less.

[BOA12]

sound advice thanks

[ledjend]

I know it looks bad right now, but if you try to chase all of these plays at the same time, you might run out of bankroll to do it.

Flat betting isn't working right now because the picks are hitting at 57% and I believe the average odds are higher than expected.

If you wanna chase this, you better chase to win a 1/2 unit or less.

Finished testing and average odds in losses over last 5 years came out to about -180 (-179.79). Definitely a bit different than what we thought at -165, but still profitable. In fact, it's actually still slightly more profitable than chasing - although you wouldn't think that from this past week's results.

As far as recommending people cut their units, I think there's a fine line between being smart and being overly cautious. Playing to win 2% of your bankroll gives you almost enough money to cover 3 C bets at once - and with only 20-25 C bets each year, the likelihood of that happening is slim.

If you want to be ultra safe and play close to the vest then I agree, cutting your units would be the way to go. But if you're like me and want to maximize profits, I think 2% is a good number.

[ledjend]

really enjoy the alt run aspect thanks for sharing

Yea me too - aside from the juice!

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 7/12

Flat Betting (Entered day 26-19, -7.74 u)

- Cle at -133 - Loss
- Cin at -150 - Loss
- Phi +1.5 at -115 - Loss
- CHC - Win
- SD - Win
- LAD - Win
- Col - Win
- StL +1.5 - Win

5-3, +1.02 u on day

Year to date - 31-22, -6.72 u



Chase (Entered day 25-1, +10.5u)

- Cle A bet - Loss
- Cin A bet - Loss
- Phi B bet - Loss
- CHC C bet - Win
- SD A bet (vs Tex) - Win
- LAD B Bet (vs Mil) - Win
- Col A bet (vs Atl) - Win
- StL A bet - Win

Year to date - 30-1, +15.5u

[ledjend]

For those of you who are still on the fence - what are you waiting for?!

The chase just went 23-0 this week and 4-0 on C bets. I said from the get go this system is the best I've seen in my 20+ years of doing this, and now that talk is being backed up with results!!!

4-0 on C bets is NOT an accident - it's an indicator that what I'm saying is for real!

As for those of you who flat bet this week (me), it was rough going - but that won't last. The percentages have been too consistent over the last 5 years and they will even out. By the end of the year I predict we will be in the green somewhere between 25-35 units - which is equivalent to 100-140 chasing units.

I am for real - this system is for real!

Stop doubting - start winning!

[thereikid]

Yo you aint lying this is legit, God bless your bankroll!

[SouthBayGame]

Hey just started following this. No plays today?

[SouthBayGame]

Sorry meant tomorrow��

[ledjend]

TODAY 7/17


- Phi C bet - currently +138, play Run Line +1.5 at -130 (705 est)
- Cle B bet - currently -111, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at -260 (710 est)
- Cin B bet - currently -103, play Run Line at -170 (710 est)


Good Luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[ledjend]

Yo you aint lying this is legit, God bless your bankroll!

Yes it is!

[ledjend]

Hey just started following this. No plays today?

Welcome - normally post plays between 12-2pm EST.

[tr4sh]

Any ideas on what to do when bets overlap like this?

[ledjend]

Any ideas on what to do when bets overlap like this?

I play both. Worst case scenario is you split. Best case is you double cash.

Other option is to skip it and wait/hope for a C bet.

[SouthBayGame]

Great Ledjand, hope this season turns out as planned

[ledjend]

*REVISED*

TODAY 7/17


- Phi C bet - currently +138, play Run Line +1.5 at -130 (705 est)
- Cle B bet - currently -111, play Alternate Run Line +1.5 at -260 (710 est)
- Cin B bet - currently -103, play Run Line at -170 (710 est)
- Pit A bet (vs Mil) - currently +115, play Run Line +1.5 at -195 (810 est)


Just finished testing a filter to increase profits - Pittsburgh is also part of today's card.

Good Luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[ledjend]

Great Ledjand, hope this season turns out as planned

I have no doubt.

[ledjend]

YESTERDAY 7/17

Flat Betting (Entered day 31-22, -6.72 u)

- Cle at -260 - Loss
- Pit at -190 - Loss
- Phi - Win
- Cin - Win


2-2, -2.5 u on day

Year to date - 33-24, -9.22 u



Chase (Entered day 30-1, +15.5u)

- Cle B bet - Loss
- Pit A bet (vs Mil) - Loss
- Phi C bet - Win
- Cin B bet - Win

Year to date - 32-1, +17.5u

[ledjend]

Finally finished testing the last 5 years. What stands out most to me, besides the fact that this system is a fuckin juggernaut, is that some years it's more profitable to chase, while others you'd be better off flat betting.

Assuming you win 4x as much flat betting per unit as you would chasing, flat betting would've brought in 752 units, compared with 669 from chasing. But, chasing has been the more consistent of the two.

So, I've decided to use both at two separate books. One book solely for chasing. The other for flat betting.

Here's the results:


2014
A = 147 (68%)
B = 56 (80%)
C = 12 (86%)
Losses = 2

Total = 215-2, +186 units (Flat betting = +60 units)


2013
A = 143 (66%)
B = 51 (68%)
C = 19 (79%)
Losses = 5

Total = 213-5, +124 units (Flat betting = +25 units)


2012
A = 135 (65%)
B = 56 (77%)
C = 13 (76%)
Losses = 4

Total = 204-4, +127 units (Flat betting = +43 units)


2011
A = 132 (63%)
B = 54 (68%)
C = 19 (76%)
Losses = 6

Total = 205-6, +98 units (Flat betting = +7 units)


2010
A = 165 (69%)
B = 51 (70%)
C = 17 (77%)
Losses = 5

Total = 233-5, +134 units (Flat betting = +53 units)



5 YEAR TOTAL
A = 722 (66%)
B = 268 (72%)
C = 80 (78%)
Losses = 22

Total = 1070-22, +669 units (Flat betting = +188 units)

[ledjend]

TODAY 7/18


- NYY A bet (vs Sea) - currently -141, play Money Line (105 est)
- Cle C bet - currently -154, play Money Line (710 est)
- Pit B bet (vs Mil) - CANCELLED


I was wrong - Pitt is NOT a qualifying play so the series is cancelled. My apologies. I will adjust the chase record accordingly after today's results.

Good Luck!


*IMPORTANT: Be sure to monitor the lines on Covers.com and wait as long as you can to place your action. Closing lines of -130 or lower should be made on the Run Line/Alternate Run Line.

[BOA12]

the juice on the alt rl is sweet nectar

[keel44]

Thanks for all of your hard work. It looks like a killer system for sure.

I cannot for the life of me figure out how the Phillies could have been a play 2 games before the All-Star break on the road, then come home after the All-Star break and beat Fernandez and the Marlins for the all important "C" bet. I don't see how the plays are made, but it seems the results are good.

[stickbit]

Great system here thanks for your hard work and posting! Let's have a great 2nd half of the season with this! Question...does this system cutoff say around 9/1? Or safe to play after that? Just because subs etc.come in Sept gets crazy and usually kills systems.

[bob6199]

Finally finished testing the last 5 years. What stands out most to me, besides the fact that this system is a fuckin juggernaut, is that some years it's more profitable to chase, while others you'd be better off flat betting.

Assuming you win 4x as much flat betting per unit as you would chasing, flat betting would've brought in 752 units, compared with 669 from chasing. But, chasing has been the more consistent of the two.

So, I've decided to use both at two separate books. One book solely for chasing. The other for flat betting.

Here's the results:


2014
A = 147 (68%)
B = 56 (80%)
C = 12 (86%)
Losses = 2

Total = 215-2, +186 units (Flat betting = +60 units)


2013
A = 143 (66%)
B = 51 (68%)
C = 19 (79%)
Losses = 5

Total = 213-5, +124 units (Flat betting = +25 units)


2012
A = 135 (65%)
B = 56 (77%)
C = 13 (76%)
Losses = 4

Total = 204-4, +127 units (Flat betting = +43 units)


2011
A = 132 (63%)
B = 54 (68%)
C = 19 (76%)
Losses = 6

Total = 205-6, +98 units (Flat betting = +7 units)


2010
A = 165 (69%)
B = 51 (70%)
C = 17 (77%)
Losses = 5

Total = 233-5, +134 units (Flat betting = +53 units)



5 YEAR TOTAL
A = 722 (66%)
B = 268 (72%)
C = 80 (78%)
Losses = 22

Total = 1070-22, +669 units (Flat betting = +188 units)

on the first page 2014 had 5 losses, now it has 2. Which one is it?