Leans for Thursday 4/9/09

Vince Carter · 04-09-09, 12:34 AM

ck what are your opinions on the big favs for tomorrow vs. unreliable pitching? i.e. stl vs Ohlendorf (pit) who's never started a game and nyy vs simon (bal) who has a 6.0+era in triple A and got rocked in his last spring traning start

The_Kid · 04-09-09, 12:49 AM

Haven't really posted much because I've been busy but here is one morning play I'm eyeing.

Cardinals/Pirates OVER 8 (Booked)
~~Cardinals -1.5 (Possible play)~~

The OVER has cashed in the first 2 meetings this year and going back to last year, the OVER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings. Like CK said, I don't think Carpenter is a -185 pitcher anymore so I believe the Pirates will be able to get a few runs off him. Ohlendorf doesn't have much experience in the major leagues but his career ERA is 6.13 and opponents are hitting .314 off him. After losing another game to the Pirates, I expect the Cardinal bats to come out swinging. I might also take a look at the RL too.

cocknocker · 04-09-09, 01:01 AM

I don't like to go against a rookie pitcher, but it is hard to not like the Yanks tomorrow, but I would have to shorten the bet a little and play their runline and take some of the sting off of playing them straight. Burnette is a good pitcher

khaliagent · 04-09-09, 02:56 AM

Burnett is a great pitcher definitely .....wish we still had him in toronto but i expect big things from romero tommorrow...
Two rooks going at it in toronto tommorrow.
Any thoughts on this game

danrman · 04-09-09, 03:58 AM

my picks.. st. louis cardinals and la angels... i might try some cleve ck... i live here in dallas and the rangers are gonna be better this year

danrman · 04-09-09, 04:02 AM

2 dollars to win 40 parlay... st. louis,la dodgers,nyy,cleve,la angels

wangichu · 04-09-09, 04:09 AM

with you on cleveland CK, but i think i want them on the game

CLE ML

arroyo is due to start out decent this year, and either way, i trust perez to be a little erratic in his first year post contract, especially on the road against a cincy team that is dying for a mash fest. Plus they owe me for yesterday and i think they are good enough to avoid a sweep at home.

CIN ML

as for the sox/royals i can't figure out which direction to take this one because i see a chicago style slugfest at some point in this game, i think they go over the team total, they alone could cover the over, but if danks is on fire, the sox could get by on little support. All i know is that danks has looked consistently decent and improved every year. Last year he got virtually no run support and that's the kind of thing that just levels out ala law of averages for good pitchers, which i think he is. Especially since the rangers have a history of trading away good pitchers. so as of now, i'm inclined to say screw totals and go:

CHW -1.5

Jimbo42 · 04-09-09, 06:06 AM

I'll give the Orioles a shot... I like Rookie pitchers and if you can go against Burnette.... do it when he's on the road...

B-More +148

jellobiafra · 04-09-09, 08:48 AM

Tailing you guys on Cleveland. Let's get it.

TheLemonDropKid · 04-09-09, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Ah yes, that was more like it yesterday....Today I am scanning the lines for a +150 play and the winner is nunya! I can't back the Pirates to beat down the Cardinals anymore, although Carpenter is not a -186 pitcher for sure. I am taking the under for the A's and Angels. 9 is too high of a number for what is gonna happen tonight. I also think that the Indians will pound out one of these sorry ass Texas pitchers. I'm laying the wood on Pavano to somewhat resemble what he used to be... a power pitcher

Cleveland 1st 4.5 innings

Oakland/Angels under 9

Hey bro......based on your pitcher criteria it looks like the following games would have wet your chops.....let me know if I'm wrong.

BAL because of Burnett's record as a -150 or more fav.

TB because of Matsuzaka's record as a -150 or more fav.

KC because of Davies' record as a +150 dog and Danks record as a -150 or more fav.

Talk to me baby.....watcha got????

ASH0479 · 04-09-09, 10:11 AM

....

Yankees ML
Devil Rays ML
Twins ML

Thats what I am rolling with early...

BOL

JamesBrown · 04-09-09, 10:25 AM

Unfortunate news guys...."Nick Adenhart was killed in a felony hit-and-run car accident in Fullerton, California early this morning -- hours after he pitched in a game last night". Any chance the Angels have other things on their mind then playing Oakland tonight? Might be worth a look

solobass · 04-09-09, 10:26 AM

yeah the fade list has been interesting but sometimes you never know what to expect on a pitcher's first start of the year. i have been factoring in some late spring training numbers to balance things out as much as possible. all i have to say is my wife and my bank account are ever so happy to have baseball back! braves, what happened to them? wow that was a comeback too bad i was on the wrong side there. lots of early action and i am looking forward to seeing porcello (tigers) he is only 20 years old but made the club.

solobass · 04-09-09, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by JamesBrown

Unfortunate news guys...."Nick Adenhart was killed in a felony hit-and-run car accident in Fullerton, California early this morning -- hours after he pitched in a game last night". Any chance the Angels have other things on their mind then playing Oakland tonight? Might be worth a look

what, are you serious that is a tragedy. thoughts/prayers go to his family.

TheLemonDropKid · 04-09-09, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by solobass

yeah the fade list has been interesting but sometimes you never know what to expect on a pitcher's first start of the year. i have been factoring in some late spring training numbers to balance things out as much as possible. all i have to say is my wife and my bank account are ever so happy to have baseball back! braves, what happened to them? wow that was a comeback too bad i was on the wrong side there. lots of early action and i am looking forward to seeing porcello (tigers) he is only 20 years old but made the club.

What are you rollin' with today Solo?

I was thinking CIN 1st 5.....SEA 1st 5...and PIT/STL Over

solobass · 04-09-09, 10:41 AM

lemon, i am furiously capping. i spent most of the morning making some coffee in my new french press and spending time with the fam. forgot there was so much early action today!

so far

tigers -110
dodgers -140

and much more to follow.

TheLemonDropKid · 04-09-09, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by solobass

lemon, i am furiously capping. i spent most of the morning making some coffee in my new french press and spending time with the fam. forgot there was so much early action today!

so far

tigers -110
dodgers -140

and much more to follow.

lol......you better get on the ball mr. fancy-pants.....not much time.

Your thoughts on the 3 I listed?? If you've got the baseball thing down, maybe I'll just tail you and stay off picking on my own??

I hope that's not rude......I tail people that I respect.....so I hope that comes across as a compliment and nothing else.

solobass · 04-09-09, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid

lol......you better get on the ball mr. fancy-pants.....not much time.

Your thoughts on the 3 I listed?? If you've got the baseball thing down, maybe I'll just tail you and stay off picking on my own??

I hope that's not rude......I tail people that I respect.....so I hope that comes across as a compliment and nothing else.

thanks it is a compliment. i feel strong about the dodgers and also

mets -117

i will be not betting as many dogs today as they bit really hard yesterday and today things get back in line with averages. keep in mind independent probability though! the tigers is more of a gut feeling, i feel like they will start swinging the bats today and defensively they have underperformed the first few games. scary part = detroit bullpen!

peterpan19 · 04-09-09, 10:57 AM

lemon

both pitchers struggled in their last spring training game... so the over for the 5 Innings might be a good call too... not so sure about Cin, could go either way as i see it

GL

picks to follow shortly...just busy today...

BmoreBucco · 04-09-09, 11:00 AM

I like the Reds today at home versus the Mets. The Reds are plenty familiar with Perez from his Pirates days and Arroyo is solid. I think the Mets being the Mets is giving this line too much value to pass up.

Reds +108

Now, off to find my Prop of the Day. I was wrong about Doug Davis yesterday, but more importantly, right about the hits/runs/errors line being way inflated yesterday. OK, putting my horn away now.

peterpan19 · 04-09-09, 11:03 AM

TB +136
stl -1.5 +110
cws -1 -109
cle +108

GL

solobass · 04-09-09, 11:05 AM

whats up peterpan i hope you have been good. you are right about the over, i am counting on the mets to hand
their bullpen a lead and shut it down.

last play of the day
the offensively underperforming yankees and mets ML parlay $250 to win $459. best of luck today everyone!

cocknocker · 04-09-09, 11:05 AM

Gonna have to rock with the D-Rays today. I think that Matsuzaka isn't over the elbow stiffness that he had in the WBC, and as LemonDrop pointed out he is terrible with heavy chalk. The D-Rays prove that last year wasn't a fluke.

D-Rays+110 1st half

Reds+140 1st half of game Arroyo owns the Mets (BigMoneyMan play)

BmoreBucco · 04-09-09, 11:06 AM

I like the first-rounder (Romero) that has had to battle to beat the first-rounder (Porcello) who is the Annointed, especially since it's in Toronto.

Blue Jays -105

BmoreBucco · 04-09-09, 11:11 AM

Chump change parlay of the day:

953] PIT +185 ( ACTION )
[962] MIN -1½+155 ( J WASHBURN-L / G PERKINS -L )
[964] BOS -146 ( ACTION )
[965] NYY -1½-125 ( A BURNETT -R / A SIMON -R

$25 to win $526, why not?

solobass · 04-09-09, 11:18 AM

Bmore, CK has taught me well on the value of the 4-5 team $25 parlay. Also Rays are a definite live dog. Lastly....

Royals +135

now FOR REAL no more plays today. i have enough of my roll out there, and am trying to avoid hubris!

Chi_archie · 04-09-09, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by BmoreBucco

I like the first-rounder (Romero) that has had to battle to beat the first-rounder (Porcello) who is the Annointed, especially since it's in Toronto.

Blue Jays -105

good luck fellow bucco fan...

romero is the choice, we have the same b-day

repski · 04-09-09, 11:28 AM

The Spread.com MLB lines are SOOOOO out of whack....they show RLM in the SD/LAD game whereas BetUS has the line going up

solobass · 04-09-09, 11:30 AM

repski with yet another solid avatar pick!

repski · 04-09-09, 11:36 AM

Mets/Reds over 9

-Perez was awful last Saturday walking 4 in the first inning...seems to be wild again.
-Arroyo also had a tough time in his final preseason outing. Arroyo gave up six runs and seven hits in the 12-4 loss to Cincy's Double-A team.
-Yesterday these two teams combined for 16 runs.

MoneyintheBank09 · 04-09-09, 11:37 AM

Originally posted by BmoreBucco

Chump change parlay of the day:

953] PIT +185 ( ACTION )
[962] MIN -1½+155 ( J WASHBURN-L / G PERKINS -L )
[964] BOS -146 ( ACTION )
[965] NYY -1½-125 ( A BURNETT -R / A SIMON -R

$25 to win $526, why not?

i got a question what is the difference between (action ) and ( A BURNETT -R / A SIMON -R i have only kept it on action andi was just wondering thanks !!! and good luck on your parlay

CUAIrish · 04-09-09, 11:42 AM

**sorry for late post, my internet wouldn't load SBR at all so I couldn't post in time.

Bronson Arroyo has a career .828 OPS vs lefties compared to .702 vs righties. With a potent Mets offense and a predominantly left or switch hitting lineup look for Arroyo to struggle todoay coming in early off corpal tunnel syndrome problems that projected him to miss tonights start. My early lean had mets winning, but with an erratic Perez I like my chances on the over.

Booked:

Mets/Reds over 9

Supporting trends:
NYM are 9-0 in their last 9 Thu. games.
Over is 8-1-1 in Perezs last 10 starts overall.
Over is 8-1-1 in Perezs last 10 starts on grass.
Over is 7-1 in CIN last 8 games following a loss.
Over is 13-5-2 in CIN last 20 home games.

melincrea · 04-09-09, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Ah yes, that was more like it yesterday....Today I am scanning the lines for a +150 play and the winner is nunya! I can't back the Pirates to beat down the Cardinals anymore, although Carpenter is not a -186 pitcher for sure. I am taking the under for the A's and Angels. 9 is too high of a number for what is gonna happen tonight. I also think that the Indians will pound out one of these sorry ass Texas pitchers. I'm laying the wood on Pavano to somewhat resemble what he used to be... a power pitcher

Cleveland 1st 4.5 innings -140

Oakland/Angels under 9 -120
D-Ray 1st half +110 ( I had to do it, Matsuzaka stinks with heavy money on him)
Reds 1st half +140
Cards/Pirates over 4 runs 1st half (Carpenter? It's been 2 years)

Hey CK, I have Cleveland 1st half at +104.. why is your line so high?

CUAIrish · 04-09-09, 12:17 PM

Of todays matchups, the most lopsided would be that between Kershaw and Correia. Not seeing too much as far as trends to sway me, I like Kershaw to keep SD at bay through 5 innings.

Booked:

LAD -1/2 First 5 -140
Mets/Reds over 9