ESPN Streak For Cash MLB Evaluation

[McCarthyFam]

I was bored today, so I looked into fading the ESPN Streak For Cash MLB games, because realistically..you'd be fading the public. So I started by going back to April 6th where the season began essentially and I broke it down into 3 categories to begin with:

Less than 5% chance of winning
5%-10% chance of winning
10%-25% chance of winning

(I rounded to the nearest percent. )

The record I got for these are below

5%- 21-16
10%- 13-18
25%- 40-32

total record: 74-66

I then went a step further and filtered out the games labeled as cold and came up with these records. Which didn't have much of a significant change.

5%- 17-16
10%- 12-13
25%- 25-17

total record: 54-46

I also broke them down into the following:

Hot Games
5% 4-4
10% 2-2
25% 3-1

Warmer Games
5% 7-6
10% 5-4
25% 10-3

Warm Games
5% 6-6
10% 5-7
25% 12-13

So filtering out the cold and warm games seemed to help the record a bit

The records will update to the following:

5% 11-10
10% 7-6
25% 13-4

total: 31-20

Obviously its only from this year so its not a very large test sample. But I would imagine the majority of these teams are dogs. I have not actually went back and looked at the lines. But that will be my next step in this test. I will have more of a clearer vision to see if this is something that will work.

Any input would be awesome!

thanks

[McCarthyFam]

Also, these percentages are the final percentage ESPN has posted. We would obviously have to wait up until a few minutes before 1st pitch to place the bets to have an accurate percentage. I will start posting the plays in this thread. I have all the past plays written in a notebook. I will post those on here shortly. I'm just trying to figure out if i want to combine all the plays together. Or if I should break it down into the percentage categories and filter anything out. any help would be nice

[McCarthyFam]

Here is a daily record for all plays:

4/6: 4-5
4/7: 2-1
4/8: 5-3
4/9: 2-3
4/10: 4-3
4/11: 5-2
4/12: 2-3
4/13: 3-5
4/14: 4-3
4/15: 3-7
4/16: 1-2
4/17: 3-3
4/18: 3-3
4/19: 3-2
4/20: 2-2
4/21: 5-4
4/22: 4-3
4/23: 4-1
4/24: 5-3
4/25: 3-6
4/26: 7-2

[stevenash]

Interesting

[McCarthyFam]

4/6

5% Rockies +132
3% Mets +155
3%Diamondbacks+ 127

9% Angels +145
7% Astros -102
8% Rangers +143

16% Blue Jays+119
15% Phillies -105
15% Rays-122

4/6: 4-5 ($-21)

Season 4-5 ($-21)

[McCarthyFam]

4/7

4% Rays +103

7% Diamondbacks -102

18% Rockies +110

4/7: 2-1 (+110)

Season 6-6 (+$89)

[McCarthyFam]

4/8

4% Phillies +124
2% Rangers +140

25% Cubs -105
15% Rays -107
14% Astros +106
25% Rockies +116
17% Diamondbacks -114
25% Angels +114

4/8 5-3 (+254)

Season: 11-9 (+343)

[McCarthyFam]

4/9

5% Rangers +140
3% Phillies +116

9% White Sox +123
7% Astros -104

18% Mets -101

4/9 2-3 (-$64)

Season 13-12 (+279)

[McCarthyFam]

4/10

5% Twins +100
4% Diamondbacks +104

11% Astros +101
17% Cubs +126
19% Yankees -105
11% Rays +107
22% Padres -116

4/10 4-3 (+$100)

Season 17-15 (+379)

[McCarthyFam]

4/11

5% Mariners +129

21% Yankees -113
25% Cardinals +107
17% Phillies +100
14% Mets +113
23% Cubs -103
11% Padres -108

4/11 5-2 (+$323)

Season: 22-17 (+$702)

[2daBank]

Very interesting work man. I'd be shocked if u didn't come out nicely ahead w this idea as the majority of cats I know that play streak for the cash are half retarded squares.. Lol

[McCarthyFam]

4/12

4% Athletics +125
2% Diamondbacks +133

12% Indians +105
18% Mets +108
22% Yankees -117

4/12 2-3 (-$92)

Season: 24-20 (+$610)

[leetreaper]

haha my man, i'm doing this 3rd year in a row

[McCarthyFam]

4/13

3% Twins +115
5% Rays +121
5% Astros -101

13% Phillies +155
12% Pirates -134
21% Rockies +120
24% Reds +128
17% Mariners +109

4/13 3-5 (-$160)

Season: 27-25 (+$450)

[No coincidences]

Very interesting work man. I'd be shocked if u didn't come out nicely ahead w this idea as the majority of cats I know that play streak for the cash are half retarded squares.. Lol

Exactly.

[McCarthyFam]

4/14

2% Rays +137
4% Diamondbacks +117

7% Pirates -114
8% Astros -114

15% White Sox +113
20% Reds +135
24% Rockies +115

4/14 4-3 (+$172)

Season: 31-28 (+$622)

[McCarthyFam]

4/15

3% Twins +112
4% Diamondbacks +123

8% Rangers +110
8% Phillies +147

17% White Sox +120
22% Nationals +108
23% Yankees -103
16% Pirates -144
15% Astros -104
21% Mariners +123

4/15 3-7 (-$427)

Season 34-35 (+195)

[McCarthyFam]

4/16

3% Twins +107

6% Brewers +130

13% Marlins -102

4/16 1-2 (-$95)

Season 35-37 (+100)

[McCarthyFam]

4/17

3% Twins +175
4% Astros +102

12% Brewers +113
18% Athletics -115
15% Rangers +149
14% Diamondbacks +134

4/17 3-3 (+$143)

Season 38-40 (+$243)

[McCarthyFam]

4/18

3% Marlins +121

10% White Sox +104
6% Reds +136
8% Brewers +130

17% Orioles +125
12% Astros -119

4/18 3-3 (+$29)

Season: 41-43 (+$272)

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[McCarthyFam]

4/19

9% Rays +122
8% Rockies +$160

12% Orioles +133
20% Twins +100
18% Diamondbacks +124

4/19 3-2 (+$157)

Season 44-45 (+$429)

[leetreaper]

gogogo

[McCarthyFam]

4/20

6% Yankees +106
10% Athletics +141

13% Brewers -107
24% White Sox -104

4/20 2-2 (+$34)

Season: 46-47 (+$463)

[McCarthyFam]

4/21

4% Yankees +106

9% Giants +127

25% Nationals -114
24% Orioles +117
19% Braves +143
13% Brewers -127
24% White Sox +121
21% Rangers +127
24% Astros +111

4/21 5-4 (+$144)

Season: 51-51 (+$607)

[McCarthyFam]

4/22

2% Rays +114
4% Brewers +128

7% Rockies -105
8% Giants +133

23% Pirates -111
25% Rangers +102
11% Astros +149

4/22 4-3 (+$133)

Season: 55-54(+$740)

[McCarthyFam]

4/23

10% Brewers -107

23% Yankees -105
25% Braves +117
22% Rockies -110
12% Rays -114

4/23 4-1 (+$300)

Season: 59-55 (+1040)

[leetreaper]

[McCarthyFam]

4/24

5% Phillies +107
2% Indians +103
3% Marlins +108
4% Brewers +131

9% Astros +120

24% Rays -124
11% Diamondbacks +117
16% Padres +110

4/24 5-3 (+$238)

Season 64-58 (+$1278)

[McCarthyFam]

4/25

3% Marlins +133
2% Brewers +145
4% Rangers +136

7% Indians +138
9% Phillies +106
9% Twins +142

15% Astros +105
22% Yankees -130
14% Diamondbacks +122

4/25 3-6 (-$250)

Season: 67-64 (+1028)

[McCarthyFam]

4/26

3% Brewers +112
5% Rangers +142
5% Twins +137

7% Indians -109
8% Marlins +104
10% Phillies -105
7% White Sox +107
9% Diamondbacks +123

19% Astros +153

4/26 7-2 (+$646)

Season: 74-66 (+$1674)

[McCarthyFam]

All of the plays are listed. Nothing was filtered out. And I am not going to filter any of the plays out for now, unless someone sees something that makes it worth it.. The results are pretty impressive, so I will continue to track these plays in the days, weeks, and months to come. Hopefully the same success continues and we can make some money! I will post the plays about 10-15 minutes prior to the games. I will just edit the post when I add the later games rather than having several posts for 1 day.

To make things easy, I am going to flat bet every play.
I will not be betting $100/game myself, but for tracking purposes, all plays will be for $100.
I used 5Dimes lines, and I will continue to use their closing line to track this.

Good Luck Everyone!

[McCarthyFam]

I am now going to go back through all the plays and list the % of people on each team for the possibility of future filters

[Stokes36]

This is quite interesting, I must say. Definitely worth looking in to.

[2daBank]

All of the plays are listed. Nothing was filtered out. And I am not going to filter any of the plays out for now, unless someone sees something that makes it worth it.. The results are pretty impressive, so I will continue to track these plays in the days, weeks, and months to come. Hopefully the same success continues and we can make some money! I will post the plays about 10-15 minutes prior to the games. I will just edit the post when I add the later games rather than having several posts for 1 day.

To make things easy, I am going to flat bet every play.
I will not be betting $100/game myself, but for tracking purposes, all plays will be for $100.
I used 5Dimes lines, and I will continue to use their closing line to track this.

Good Luck Everyone!

awesome idea. i will def be checking in. keep up the good work man..