2015 MLB plays

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  • paco
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 05-07-09
    • 62873

    #2206
    Originally posted by No coincidences
    Like I said, typical Monday. Might as well take advantage.

    Price and Cespedes to the Dodgers for Puig and Seager, BTW. Like it?
    Yes, they need to sell sell sell. Club is done for the year.
    Comment
    • No coincidences
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-18-10
      • 76300

      #2207
      Originally posted by paco
      Yes, they need to sell sell sell. Club is done for the year.
      Sooner the better. Trade one, if not both. Farm system is garbage.
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #2208


        The Brock Landers field day now complete with the Giants.

        Wow. Public won literally every single bet today.
        Comment
        • No coincidences
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-18-10
          • 76300

          #2209
          Chris Heston is now 11-5.

          Chris Heston.

          Give me a fvcking break.
          Comment
          • paco
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 05-07-09
            • 62873

            #2210
            Originally posted by No coincidences


            The Brock Landers field day now complete with the Giants.

            Wow. Public won literally every single bet today.
            i think a lot of people were on the weak ass tigers but yea
            Comment
            • HardCore
              SBR MVP
              • 06-05-12
              • 3615

              #2211
              Originally posted by No coincidences


              The Brock Landers field day now complete with the Giants.

              Wow. Public won literally every single bet today.
              Cubs just wet the bed in the 9th so public didnt do that good tonight
              Comment
              • paco
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 05-07-09
                • 62873

                #2212
                Originally posted by HardCore
                Cubs just wet the bed in the 9th so public didnt do that good tonight
                Cubs walked off
                Comment
                • No coincidences
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-18-10
                  • 76300

                  #2213
                  Public goes 9-0.

                  Comment
                  • No coincidences
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-18-10
                    • 76300

                    #2214
                    I have literally seen it all now.
                    Comment
                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #2215
                      And then a double.

                      Jeezus effing Chriiiiist.
                      Comment
                      • No coincidences
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 01-18-10
                        • 76300

                        #2216
                        Fitting way to end the night.

                        +1.5 stranded on third base.

                        f\*\*k all of this nonsense.
                        Comment
                        • KRIT
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-11-14
                          • 12878

                          #2217
                          Originally posted by No coincidences
                          Public goes 9-0.

                          Good, I like my chances tomorrow. If a coin lands on tails, chances are next flip it will land heads right?
                          Comment
                          • BigDofBA
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 09-30-09
                            • 19313

                            #2218
                            Originally posted by No coincidences
                            Public goes 9-0.

                            The public was on the White Sox, Rays, and Diamondbacks?

                            I've never really bought into the "public". We're all the public. Sometimes the public wins. Sometimes the public loses.

                            Today looked like a bunch of landmines so I just did a 7 team parlay for $5 to keep my attention. I only won one game and that was Baltimore in extra innings. That $5 entertainment saved me a few hundred....
                            Comment
                            • No coincidences
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-18-10
                              • 76300

                              #2219
                              Originally posted by BigDofBA
                              The public was on the White Sox, Rays, and Diamondbacks?

                              I've never really bought into the "public". We're all the public. Sometimes the public wins. Sometimes the public loses.

                              Today looked like a bunch of landmines so I just did a 7 team parlay for $5 to keep my attention. I only won one game and that was Baltimore in extra innings. That $5 entertainment saved me a few hundred....
                              I check four different sites.

                              White Sox -- yes (despite the huge swing in favor of Boston)
                              Rays -- no. Pretty split.
                              D'Backs -- yes.

                              1st and 3rd weren't huge. Right in the 55/45 range. The four I listed were without question.

                              I'm not saying we aren't "the public." I'm saying I make my way predominantly betting against games the public likes. Nights like these rarely happen -- a clean sweep for all intents and purposes (or, at least, not one victory for the books).
                              Comment
                              • BigDofBA
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 09-30-09
                                • 19313

                                #2220
                                Originally posted by No coincidences
                                I check four different sites.

                                White Sox -- yes (despite the huge swing in favor of Boston)
                                Rays -- no. Pretty split.
                                D'Backs -- yes.

                                1st and 3rd weren't huge. Right in the 55/45 range. The four I listed were without question.

                                I'm not saying we aren't "the public." I'm saying I make my way predominantly betting against games the public likes. Nights like these rarely happen -- a clean sweep for all intents and purposes (or, at least, not one victory for the books).
                                It seems like nights like these are happening more than normal this year but that may just be my perception. I get where you're coming from though, I play more favorites than you but we have similar styles.

                                Maybe we are giving line makers too much credit or maybe they're getting worse. Maybe they're just fvcking with us. I have no idea.

                                They haven't adjusted on the Royals, Indians, Red Sox, As, Mariners, and Cubs. It took them forever to adjust to the Cardinals, Astros, and Twins.

                                20 cent line moves are an instant fade. Fade these and you'll win like 65-70% of the time....line moves in general mean less and less. The opener is the most important number it seems.

                                I don't know. I had a horrible first 2 months. Then I caught fire and now I'm in another slump. Ironically, when I caught fire I didn't pay much attention to the line movement, "sharp" lines, "public" lines, etc....I just bet with my heart, head, and feel for how teams were playing. I had momentum going and it felt like every game I picked was going to win and it did. Now the opposite is happening. Funny how streaky this is....

                                Sometimes I think we make this more complicated that it is and we let the numbers screw with our heads. I just want to get back to even.

                                I'm really ready for football season so I can stop betting MLB until the playoffs.
                                Comment
                                • No coincidences
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-18-10
                                  • 76300

                                  #2221
                                  Originally posted by BigDofBA
                                  20 cent line moves are an instant fade. Fade these and you'll win like 65-70% of the time....line moves in general mean less and less. The opener is the most important number it seems.
                                  I really wish I had the data to back me up here, because I agree. It's been an absolute huge money maker. Problem is, every time a poster says, "prove it," I can't. I just know the 20+ cent line moves have been the kiss of death if you're on the team following the steam.
                                  Comment
                                  • No coincidences
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 01-18-10
                                    • 76300

                                    #2222
                                    CLE -115 (23U to win 20)

                                    Last bet of the year in bases if it loses.
                                    Comment
                                    • No coincidences
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 76300

                                      #2223
                                      Baseball comes down to 2-out hitting. Period. That's all it is, really. You either get clutch two-out hits or you don't.

                                      Unfortunately, that also means your bets often come down to a coin flip.
                                      Comment
                                      • BigDofBA
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 09-30-09
                                        • 19313

                                        #2224
                                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                                        CLE -115 (23U to win 20)

                                        Last bet of the year in bases if it loses.
                                        Dude. No team has fvcked me more this year than Cleveland and no team has beaten me more than KC.

                                        What are you seeing here to be so confident in fading the Royals against a sub .500 team that has lost five in a row?

                                        The line says Cleveland but lines haven't really mattered that much. You'll probably even beat the closer and Cleveland will be like -127 at first pitch.

                                        GL
                                        Comment
                                        • No coincidences
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-18-10
                                          • 76300

                                          #2225
                                          Originally posted by BigDofBA
                                          Dude. No team has fvcked me more this year than Cleveland and no team has beaten me more than KC.

                                          What are you seeing here to be so confident in fading the Royals against a sub .500 team that has lost five in a row?

                                          The line says Cleveland but lines haven't really mattered that much. You'll probably even beat the closer and Cleveland will be like -127 at first pitch.

                                          GL
                                          Chris Young.
                                          Comment
                                          • mngambler
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-01-11
                                            • 2890

                                            #2226
                                            Originally posted by BigDofBA
                                            Dude. No team has fvcked me more this year than Cleveland and no team has beaten me more than KC.

                                            What are you seeing here to be so confident in fading the Royals against a sub .500 team that has lost five in a row?

                                            The line says Cleveland but lines haven't really mattered that much. You'll probably even beat the closer and Cleveland will be like -127 at first pitch.

                                            GL
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                                            Comment
                                            • ex50warrior
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-10-09
                                              • 3821

                                              #2227
                                              Originally posted by No coincidences
                                              Baseball comes down to 2-out hitting. Period. That's all it is, really. You either get clutch two-out hits or you don't.

                                              Unfortunately, that also means your bets often come down to a coin flip.


                                              You may be right. But that's why its tough to justify the tilt bet after a frustrating day.

                                              I've done it more often than I care to admit--in sports, blackjack, craps, and the stock market.

                                              Hope you have better luck than I usually had.
                                              Comment
                                              • blackeyeshamus
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-19-11
                                                • 6632

                                                #2228
                                                Sweet sassy molassy, NC.
                                                Good luck, man. Stack em and cash em!
                                                Comment
                                                • BigDofBA
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 09-30-09
                                                  • 19313

                                                  #2229
                                                  The Indians have an uncanny ability of hitting into double plays and then stranding guys in scoring position or leaving them on base.

                                                  Every time I watch this team they seem to have tons of guys on base every inning but they always have little to show for it.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • tatddy
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-02-10
                                                    • 10779

                                                    #2230
                                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                    Chris Heston is now 11-5.

                                                    Chris Heston.

                                                    Give me a fvcking break.
                                                    I'm interested to hear what about his performance indicated a regression. You watch the games so no need to get into the stats.

                                                    Dave R really taught the kid how to pitch and he's basically single-handedly saved the Giants season. If anything that line on SF was soft.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • R.P. McMurphy
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 06-15-12
                                                      • 9654

                                                      #2231
                                                      Coin just loves be contrarian to the death. That and his hatred for small market or historically bad teams like Oak, KC, Stros doing well. I know Chris Young and scary to back and no prize but he is 5-1 on road this year with a whip under 1.00. On flipside win or lose your really putting $ on a shit team with a avg pitcher at best who's been terrible in recent home starts? No way any work was put into fading Kc other than fading public /contrarian angle I see.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • leetreaper
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 10-23-10
                                                        • 34841

                                                        #2232
                                                        "Watching games"
                                                        Comment
                                                        • tatddy
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 03-02-10
                                                          • 10779

                                                          #2233
                                                          Originally posted by leetreaper
                                                          "Watching games"
                                                          Nearly all of Chris Heston's stats are above league avg and he's got a top 10 offense behind him so there was no need to get into that debate to address No Coin's point. So not sure what your point is here. Some of us actually enjoy watching sports.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • R.P. McMurphy
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 06-15-12
                                                            • 9654

                                                            #2234
                                                            Just frustrating watching this guy do same shit every year. I just see a disturbing pattern where he hates winners. Last few years Oak one of winniest teams in mlb over large sample size. Killed in run differential, runs scored , always solid pitching but they were always just "lucky" and had a horseshoe up their ass according to Coin. Same with Cards and the LepreCard crap one best if not THE best org in mlb who find ways to win.....Yeah that's what winners and good teams do lol.

                                                            Just think Coin is too smart for this shit but if he wants to make 20 more threads thru month of Aug whining about public winning backing good teams while he's losing betting shit like Cleveland more power to him I guess. Some people love misery!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • leetreaper
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 10-23-10
                                                              • 34841

                                                              #2235
                                                              Originally posted by tatddy
                                                              Nearly all of Chris Heston's stats are above league avg and he's got a top 10 offense behind him so there was no need to get into that debate to address No Coin's point. So not sure what your point is here. Some of us actually enjoy watching sports.
                                                              If you are not sure why do you reply? It was a completely dif. point of course...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Big Bear
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 11-01-11
                                                                • 43253

                                                                #2236
                                                                any leans for the later games fellas?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • leetreaper
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 10-23-10
                                                                  • 34841

                                                                  #2237
                                                                  Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy
                                                                  Just frustrating watching this guy do same shit every year. I just see a disturbing pattern where he hates winners. Last few years Oak one of winniest teams in mlb over large sample size. Killed in run differential, runs scored , always solid pitching but they were always just "lucky" and had a horseshoe up their ass according to Coin. Same with Cards and the LepreCard crap one best if not THE best org in mlb who find ways to win.....Yeah that's what winners and good teams do lol.

                                                                  Just think Coin is too smart for this shit but if he wants to make 20 more threads thru month of Aug whining about public winning backing good teams while he's losing betting shit like Cleveland more power to him I guess. Some people love misery!
                                                                  He was calling CARDINALS AT HOME lucky vs freaking Cubs, there's no help unfortunately...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • R.P. McMurphy
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 06-15-12
                                                                    • 9654

                                                                    #2238
                                                                    Yeah Cards have always owned Cubs wherever. Just not time of year in long run to be fading surging teams especially best ones in gm and hoping for good results. Took KC tt ov 3.5 myself and fukking Bauer really lol?? Hey win or lose I just couldn't find anything to get excited over a bad Tribe team been highly overrated including pitching all season. Maybe lighting strikes tonight and Bauer holds up Tribe wins. I don't like betting on lightning though
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • leetreaper
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 10-23-10
                                                                      • 34841

                                                                      #2239
                                                                      Tribe score on an error lol...priceless
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • blackeyeshamus
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 02-19-11
                                                                        • 6632

                                                                        #2240
                                                                        Tribe batting .133 with bases loaded in 2015.
                                                                        Comment
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