Looking forward to reading your thread over all season.
-
It's really nice to see how everyone uses our dog picks but covering soccer losses is a first! We're glad you're here. Wish you the best in soccer, too.
Comment -
I keep trying to warn parlay pickers that if you do a parlay of more than 3 teams, bet the RL for a DOG!!!
How many times does that happen when a dog loses by 1 to ruin a parlay.
No sense at all to put a dog in a parlay...just bet them straight.
SmhComment -
IMHO the only time parlay's make sense is when you have two superior teams with two superior starters against two weak teams with two weak starters.
I would never bet 3 teams in a parlay, baseball is to close to win with that long term.
Today I don't like any dog other than San Diego, although Despaigne has been bad on the road and De la Rosa is a stud at Coors. But in the end I like the Padres bats. They are quite good. And Rockies have been quite cold lately.Comment -
We are finding that people are betting these games every way imaginable. We say what works for us but to each their own. People are betting selected parlays with these dogs and killing it. They are attaching totals and betting two games doing this. They are parlaying dogs and faves. As long as they remove money from the books into their wallet we don't care. Full speed ahead.
Comment -
It is very rare we post a fave. We don't put them in the thread and they aren't included in our dog record. But here's the deal. Cleveland was a dog until the bettors caught on. Kind of like the Atlanta line yesterday. So we are betting Cleveland at -110 because why leave money on the table just because they aren't a dog? That makes no sense.
We still despise faves, however. But they occasionally have their place.
Comment -
the sportsbook i use, you are able to do open parlays. I find that is the best way to hit parlays.Comment -
Good morning everyone
Since I'm posting early this morning, I will repost these games around 6pm ET for any late arrivals to the thread.
04.20.15 ALI DOGS
None
HAYDUKES
7pm ET
901 CUBS +107 .50/.53
7:20pm ET
903 CIN +105 .50/.52
8:40pm ET
905 SD +120 .50/.60
GLTA
Ali & Hayduke
Last edited by mitch51; 04-20-15, 11:37 AM.Comment -
Rockies tonight.
You don't bet against Jorge at home...I know Rockies just got swept and didn't score much in that series, but somehow they just rise to the occasion when De La Rosa pitches in Colorado.
That's my only play tonight.Comment -
That time difference.
We are in late evening here.. :P BOL for today
Comment -
Thanks for the kind words.
Yes, as I said, he has been more than good over his career at Coors. And Despaigne has bad road stats over his short career.
But you know, it's plus money you get on a Padres team which was totally revamped and is doing very well, which has a pitcher with totally demented pitching style and who has dominated the Rockies in his single start against them last year.
De la Rosa, as I said, is a beast at Coors. Since July 2009 the Rockies are 31-4 when he starts at Coors. But you got to look at the stats AND the matchups. First, he holds opposing hitters to fewer runs than his fellow Rockies starters. Second, he gets a ton of run support. But why is that second point happening? Well, if you look at his opponents, it's really not that surprising. It's unbelievable, but he nearly never had to pitch against the top of the crop in those 35 games. His best opponents were a very young Scherzer in 2009, Hiroki Kuroda pitching for the Bombers in 2013, Bumgarner in 2013, Liriano in 2013 and Duffy in 2014. All other starters were mediocre AT BEST. Way more than 50% of his opponents were suckers like Gorzelanny, Jonathan Sanchez, Derek Lowe, Joe Saunders or Eric Stults. He did profit very much from his matchups. No Kershaw, no Greinke, no Cueto, no Cain (when he was healthy some time ago), no Halladay, no Hamels, no Lee, no Waino, no Carpenter, no Harvey, no deGrom, no Fernandez nothing.
I don't want to write him or the Rockies down, but Padres at plus money in this spot are a quite good and longterm profitable bet IMO, simply because they are hot on offense, they have shown that they can hit the long ball, some of their hitters have very good stats against De la Rosa and Despaigne is so freakish. Of course the Padres are no sure bet, that's clear.
Some Dodgers stats against De la Rosa:
- Rollins .294 BAA/.910 OPS
- Kemp .385 BAA/1.174 OPS
- A-Gon .349 BAA/1.093 OPS
- Kendrick .500 BAA/1.167 OPS
- Grandal .200 BAA/.900 OPS
Of course there are others like Ethier or Uribe against whom he did better as well, but the first four guys can easily destroy him alone. Too bad that Upton probably won't be in the lineup, because he has a .368 BAA/.921 OPS as well.
The Rockies have been cold (on their standards) over the last few days, especially Tulo, Morneau, Gonzalez and Dickerson, only Blackmon and LeMahieu doing well.
Regarding the bullpen the advantage is also on the Padres.
I did give very much into the pure records in the past, but I think I have to change that simply because of the fact that I didn't look into matchups enough. A (fictional) 9-2 home record against bad teams with bad pitchers may be good, but it may be 'worse' than a 6-4 home record against good teams with good pitchers.
In the end, every streak comes to an end.
BTW, I am from Germany and we have 19:01 right now (or 7:01 PM).
Comment -
Rosa is the only solid pitcher the Rocks have. It helps a batter out knowing his work is less likely gonna be squandered by poor pitching. Something that happens all too often at Coors.Comment -
To be honest I don't know why I wrote about the Dodgers ROFL...Comment -
About 3pm PT/ 6pm ET Here's the repost of the games for tonight
Good morning everyone
Since I'm posting early this morning, I will repost these games around 6pm ET for any late arrivals to the thread.
04.20.15 ALI DOGS
None
HAYDUKES
7pm ET
901 CUBS +107 .50/.53
7:20pm ET
903 CIN +105 .50/.52
8:40pm ET
905 SD +120 .50/.60
GLTA
Ali & HaydukeComment -
loved your thread last season. good to see you back and good luck this year.Comment -
Cash the Reds.
Comment -
Congrats. Didn't tail though. Just been following Ali's picks cause don't have a big bankroll to follow all your picks.
Comment -
Another good day. Too bad the Tribe couldn't hold on.Comment -
Update:
ALI DOGS
18-13 +8.39u 58.06%
HAYDUKES
3-0 +1.65u
17-15 +2.14u 53.12%
Good night all
back deck time for us...
Ali & Hayduke
Comment -
Congrats Hayduke on that pleasant leisurely cash with San Diego Dog +120 up 9-0 after 2 innings lol. Rockies returning home after getting somewhat dominatingly swept at Dodgers, Bold Call in my eyes, potentially powerful at least upper lineup that Rockies bring.
I like the difference between the disciplined (by the book) Ali and the reckless by comparison to Ali Authority Questioning Haydukes.
Further congrats to Haydukes on the Reds win and Cubs. fading A.J. Burnett (although he appears to have pitched well today)...I don't bet Burnett, something that stems from when he was in a NYY uniform ages ago.....I do not Play ON A.J. so I liked seeing the Cubs selection. All Road dogs, impressive.
3-0 day for Haydukes I believe. Must be trying to catch up to Ali's total...this day will help that.Last edited by buddha; 04-20-15, 11:29 PM.Comment -
When Ali DOGS aka The Dog Machine@ won't spit them out then HAYDUKES aka The Dog Catcher will pick them up.
Comment -
My brain went mad I think...
I have a sheet where I put in different stats (it calculates me odds) and write some things together which don't fit into the stats category and then I compare it to the bookie's odds. Looking at my sheet from yesterday, there is nothing which has to do with Dodgers. I don't know why I wrote about them lol...
But pick was good nonetheless, total rampage.Comment -
OopsComment -
"It calculates me odds" ?!!? What are you, a Leprechaun? I thought you were in Germany. What? Did you immigrate to Germany? Pop out of a box of delicious Lucky Charms onto a busbench in Koboldbaden?
Dodgers slip? The paragraph breaking down De la Rosa's 31-4 record as starter at Coors was brilliant. Rare is the MLB insight that might prove useful over the course of many games thus did I reward ye with a couple of me goldcoins.
...didn't want you to think it was a "sarcastic" reward lol....with the Dodgers thing. De la R insight was great.Comment -
Nope, I am no Leprechaun, sadly, because if I was, I would be famous as they are hopping around on German television (at least they did some time ago, I don't watch much TV nowadays).
Yeah, it ('it' = database) calculates probabilities and based on this it calculates odds. It works quite well. Bunch of maths, you know.
But as I hinted, that's not the only thing I look into. I have a certain work order. Stats > Probabilities > Odds > Rest. And the 'Rest' is quite big, since the 'Rest' consists of things like the one with De La Rosa. And since the calculations are done by my PC and the only thing I have to do is put in some stats it's no big work at all. On a day where all 30 teams are playing it takes me about maybe half an hour at the most.
What do you mean with 'Dodgers slip'? (Sometimes I don't understand everything correct since being from Germany.) Yeah, it was a 'slip' in that sense as I don't know why I wrote it down here. Maybe I was thinking about Kemp and then I was out of it. Thanks for the coins, it was something I realized only some hours before the game. I have never ever seen a pitcher who had such 'easy' (well, what's easy in MLB?) matchups like De La Rosa. You expect a guy who pitches tons of games over multiple years to go against the elite at least a few games, but there wasn't anything, totally strange.
I didn't think it was sarcastic btw. No problem there at all.
Last edited by posey; 04-21-15, 04:25 AM.Comment -
"Slip" simply translates to "slip of the tongue"...a harmless mis-statement. "Freudian Slip" is perhaps the most popular usage of this word....those slips can be anything but "harmless" though...rofl.
I suspect Dodgers were on your mind during your write-up as result of the sweep they just posted on Rockies, maybe it was just cuz they were directly off that series.
Yes....the in-depth explanation of De la Rosa's dominance being against (largely) inferior starting pitchers thus De la R experiencing enhanced run support....brilliant, rarely seen. Even the elite game analyst do not generally accomplish such accurate, concise and easy to understand explanation.
Keep it coming, please....when you have insights like this and time to share them here. Interested especially in any insight into the upcoming series Dodgers at San Francisco...LA with such great momentum, SF flailing about (as they sometimes do in April.) May be a bit early to say "important series" but to me it is.
SF then goes to Rockies where they'd be on schedule to face....
De la Rosa lol.
So its all good.
Comment -
Yeah, in German it's called "Freudscher Versprecher".
Sorry bout my missspelling of De la Rosa. Typical German mistake...We have too many caps in our language so we use it excessive in other languages as well...
I am a Giants fan but I think this will be a typical year with an uneven number. Spring training was really bad and the start of the season didn't give much to look forward to besides the outings of Heston. Quite a surprise this guy thusfar. Expected him to being shelled to be honest. Dodgers looked really good over the first few games.
Thanks, yeah I think those 'in-depth' findings like regarding De la Rosa and his opponents are really important to us. If I have the time to write them down, I will share them. Only the time is the problem but I think that I will at least come up with similar things (if I find them) every few days.
I am at work right now (it's 10:50 a.m. in Germany). When I get back I will start my database and see what's coming up. If I find something regarding SFG/LAD (or others) I gonna post it. But sadly I can't give you any guarantee. I think of this series as an important series, too. If the Giants can turn things around it could them a boost.Last edited by posey; 04-21-15, 05:04 AM.Comment
