early futures

[EXhoosier10]

I know it's early, but who has thoughts on these world series futures?
(These are the best lines for each team, taken from Bovada, 5Dimes, and betonline)


Los Angeles Dodgers.... +750
Washington Nationals... +1000
Detroit Tigers......... +1200
Los Angeles Angels..... +1200
St. Louis Cardinals.... +1500
Boston Red Sox......... +1600
San Francisco Giants... +1600
Seattle Mariners....... +1800
Chicago Cubs........... +2100
Kansas City Royals..... +2500
Baltimore Orioles...... +2500
Atlanta Braves......... +2800
New York Yankees....... +2800
Toronto Blue Jays...... +2800
Cleveland Indians...... +2800
Pittsburgh Pirates..... +3300
New York Mets.......... +3300
San Diego Padres....... +3500
Miami Marlins.......... +3750
Chicago White Sox...... +3750
Milwaukee Brewers...... +4000
Texas Rangers.......... +4500
Oakland Athletics...... +5000
Cincinnati Reds........ +5000
Tampa Bay Rays......... +6600
Houston Astros......... +10000
Arizona Diamondbacks... +11000
Colorado Rockies....... +12500
Minnesota Twins........ +12500
Philadelphia Phillies.. +12500

[EXhoosier10]

Easiest way to get to the WS is to win your division.

Early projections say these are your division winners:
AL East - Red Sox (+1600)
AL Cent - Tigers (+1200)
AL West - Mariners (+1800)
NL East - Nationals (+1000)
NL Cent - Cardinals (+1500)
NL West - Dodgers (+750)

Early projections have these teams as solid contenders for their division (within 5 games and > .500):
AL East - Blue Jays (+2800), Yankees (+2800), Rays (+6600)
AL Cent - Indians (+2800)
AL West - Athletics (+5000), Angels (+1200)
NL East - N/A
NL Cent - Pirates (+3300), Cubs (+2100)
NL West - Giants (+1600)

Best of the Rest (78 wins or more):
AL East - Orioles (+2500)
AL Cent - Royals (+2500), White Sox (+3750)
AL West - N/A
NL East - Marlins (+3750), Mets (+3300)
NL Cent - N/A
NL West - Padres (+3500)

# of teams below 78 wins:
AL East - 0
AL Cent - 1 (76 wins)
AL West - 2 (77 and 77 wins)
NL East - 2 (73 and 68 wins)
NL Cent - 2 (77 and 76 wins)
NL West - 2 (77 and 74 wins)

[EXhoosier10]

Picking from the AL East looks like a crapshoot with 4 of the 5 projected to win 83+ games. The Red Sox are good, but they're going to have to prove themselves against much tougher opponents than other divisions will. That being said, the rays at +6600 don't look too bad as a pure value play.

The AL central is a little more spread out, but still with talent. The Twins project to be terrible yet again, so it's a 4 team race. IMO, the white sox and royals won't make a push for more than the wild card at best, so i'll leave them out of this blurb. The Tigers being +1200 before without Scherzer is a bad price IMO. If he goes somewhere other than Detroit, while still with good SP, they're 4-5 wins worse and they aren't much different than the indians. For that reason, i like the indians +2800 as the best value in the division.

The AL west looks to be a 3 team race with nobody standing out too much. The A's have depth all around with young guys who could flop or take a step forward + older veterans who should produce enough to be useful, the Angles have Mike Trout and a handful of aging stars of yesteryear, while the M's are solid across the board with a Cano, Seager, Austin Jackson, Nelson Cruz, Felix, and Iwakuma all in their prime. The A's at +5000 seems mispriced in this group as a good value, but i'm tempted to take the Mariners as well at +1800.

In the NL East, the Nats are the clear favorites for the division and are probably 1 or 2 in the NL with the Dodgers. THe marlins at +3750 seem like a wildcard contender only if a few things fall into place. Giancarlo would need a big year, Yelich woudl need to continue to grow, Jose Fernandez would have to come back and immediately be dominant, + Latos would have to bounce back and Haren needs to stay in Miami. They're not bad, but ti's going to be tough for them to catch the nats. I really don't like any of the bets here as you'll be able to get the Nats at +1000 later in the season wiht more information about the rest of the league.

NL Central has the Cardinals and Pirates and Cubs. IMO, the worst line in all of these futures is the cubs at +2100 (potentially angels at +1200 too). They are a wild card team for now and can only win the division if a lot of things go right. The Pirates aren't in too bad of a spot even though they lost Martin. They have a solid cast of players that should all contribute + a few young arms in the minors that could come up and somewhat useful should a starter or two go down. The Cards are also solid all around, but based on the odds, I'd take the Pirates at +3300 rather than the cards +1500.

The NL west is basically the DOdgers to lose. Again, they're either #1 or 2 in the NL and the rest of their division is going to be looking up the entire season. Like the Nats, the dodgers at +750 doesn't appeal to me and I'd wait until later in the season before I make any bet on their WS fortune.

[EXhoosier10]

With Scherzer, Nats moved to +700. They're now the best team in baseball and have the easiest path to the NLCS and the World Series in all of baseball. As I mentioned earlier, though, I'd still hold out on placing that bet and wait until later in the season. As a point of reference, on August 1 last season, the Tigers were +500 to win the WS and they were in a similar position to Washington this year

[mlb]

3 that I find interesting (not enough to play them) -

White sox 37.5/1
Miami 37.5/1
Seattle 18/1

all upgraded slightly from last year, plus I see teams from each of these divisions taking a step back.

It's so wide open right now, which I love to see, I don't want to hit a future yet.

[EXhoosier10]

3 that I find interesting (not enough to play them) -

White sox 37.5/1
Miami 37.5/1
Seattle 18/1

all upgraded slightly from last year, plus I see teams from each of these divisions taking a step back.

It's so wide open right now, which I love to see, I don't want to hit a future yet.

In my mind, i don't see either CHW or MIA winning their divisions which will leave them with a tough wildcard game, but at +3750, they're odds reflect that. If I were to have to take long shots, Miami would be up there to make the playoffs in their easy division

[mlb]

In my mind, i don't see either CHW or MIA winning their divisions which will leave them with a tough wildcard game, but at +3750, they're odds reflect that. If I were to have to take long shots, Miami would be up there to make the playoffs in their easy division

agreed and I have been terrible at selecting division winners in bases the past few years - NFL I have done a pretty good job and found some value in division winners and things like that but baseball idk, I just can't see to predict anything before the year

[EXhoosier10]

Updated odds with the Scherzer, Fowler, and Rasmus deals. Bolded are odds that have moved 1% or more since the 11th.


Team Name.............. 1/11.... 1/21
Washington Nationals... +1000.…. +650
Los Angeles Dodgers.... +750..…. +800
Los Angeles Angels..... +1200.…. +1200
St. Louis Cardinals.... +1600.…. +1200
Detroit Tigers......... +1200.…. +1400
Boston Red Sox......... +1600.…. +1600
San Francisco Giants... +1800.…. +1800
Seattle Mariners....... +2000.…. +1800
Chicago Cubs........... +2200.…. +2100
Baltimore Orioles...... +2500.…. +2500
Kansas City Royals..... +2500.…. +2500
Chicago White Sox...... +4000.…. +2800
Cleveland Indians...... +3300.…. +2800
New York Yankees....... +2800.…. +2800
Toronto Blue Jays...... +2800.…. +2800
Atlanta Braves......... +2800.…. +3300
New York Mets.......... +3300.…. +3300
Pittsburgh Pirates..... +3300.…. +3300
San Diego Padres....... +4500.…. +3500
Miami Marlins.......... +4000.…. +3750
Oakland Athletics...... +4000.…. +4000
Texas Rangers.......... +4500.…. +4500
Cincinnati Reds........ +5000.…. +5000
Milwaukee Brewers...... +4000.…. +5000
Tampa Bay Rays......... +6600.…. +6600
Houston Astros......... +15000…. +9000
Arizona Diamondbacks... +11000…. +11000
Colorado Rockies....... +12500…. +12500
Minnesota Twins........ +15000…. +12500
Philadelphia Phillies.. +15000…. +12500

[mlb]

Updated odds with the Scherzer, Fowler, and Rasmus deals. Bolded are odds that have moved 1% or more since the 11th.


Team Name.............. 1/11.... 1/21
Washington Nationals... +1000.…. +650
Los Angeles Dodgers.... +750..…. +800
Los Angeles Angels..... +1200.…. +1200
St. Louis Cardinals.... +1600.…. +1200
Detroit Tigers......... +1200.…. +1400
Boston Red Sox......... +1600.…. +1600
San Francisco Giants... +1800.…. +1800
Seattle Mariners....... +2000.…. +1800
Chicago Cubs........... +2200.…. +2100
Baltimore Orioles...... +2500.…. +2500
Kansas City Royals..... +2500.…. +2500
Chicago White Sox...... +4000.…. +2800
Cleveland Indians...... +3300.…. +2800
New York Yankees....... +2800.…. +2800
Toronto Blue Jays...... +2800.…. +2800
Atlanta Braves......... +2800.…. +3300
New York Mets.......... +3300.…. +3300
Pittsburgh Pirates..... +3300.…. +3300
San Diego Padres....... +4500.…. +3500
Miami Marlins.......... +4000.…. +3750
Oakland Athletics...... +4000.…. +4000
Texas Rangers.......... +4500.…. +4500
Cincinnati Reds........ +5000.…. +5000
Milwaukee Brewers...... +4000.…. +5000
Tampa Bay Rays......... +6600.…. +6600
Houston Astros......... +15000…. +9000
Arizona Diamondbacks... +11000…. +11000
Colorado Rockies....... +12500…. +12500
Minnesota Twins........ +15000…. +12500
Philadelphia Phillies.. +15000…. +12500

any value I had with the Sox I think I would have just lost - wanted a 50/1 actually.

[EXhoosier10]

Interesting Note... Here are lines from 2013. Iteresting to note the difference between lines this year. in '13, 6 teams were > +10000 (4 now), 11 teams were > +5000 (6 now), and only 7 teams between +2000 and +5000 (16 now). THere were also 4 teams < +1000 (2 now).
I'm guessing it's partially due to the spread in talent now compared to 2013 and also some to do with the 2nd wild card. Either way it does sort of kill the WS odds if the +5000 teams aren't there anymore


Team................... 2013 Line
Los Angeles Angels..... +750
Washington Nationals... +800
Toronto Blue Jays...... +850
Detroit Tigers......... +850
Los Angeles Dodgers.... +950
Cincinnati Reds........ +1100
New York Yankees....... +1300
Texas Rangers.......... +1400
Atlanta Braves......... +1400
San Francisco Giants... +1700
Philadelphia Phillies.. +1750
Tampa Bay Rays......... +1900
St. Louis Cardinals.... +2000
Boston Red Sox......... +2500
Baltimore Orioles...... +2500
Oakland Athletics...... +3000
Chicago White Sox...... +3500
Milwaukee Brewers...... +4000
Arizona Diamondbacks... +5000
Kansas City Royals..... +7000
Pittsburgh Pirates..... +7500
Cleveland Indians...... +8000
New York Mets.......... +9000
San Diego Padres....... +9500
Chicago Cubs........... +12000
Seattle Mariners....... +12300
Colorado Rockies....... +12500
Miami Marlins.......... +14000
Minnesota Twins........ +15000
Houston Astros......... +30000

[EXhoosier10]

Lines from 2014. It seems the change happened last year and is carrying over into 2015. My guess is it mostly the extra wild card spot that is bringing prices down.

Team................... 2014 Line
Los Angeles Dodgers.... +650
Detroit Tigers......... +850
New York Yankees....... +1000
Boston Red Sox......... +1200
St. Louis Cardinals.... +1200
Washington Nationals... +1200
Texas Rangers.......... +1400
Los Angeles Angels..... +1600
San Francisco Giants... +1600
Cincinnati Reds........ +1800
Atlanta Braves......... +2000
Oakland Athletics...... +2000
Toronto Blue Jays...... +2000
Tampa Bay Rays......... +2200
Pittsburgh Pirates..... +2500
Baltimore Orioles...... +3300
Cleveland Indians...... +3300
Kansas City Royals..... +3300
Philadelphia Phillies.. +3300
Seattle Mariners....... +3300
Arizona Diamondbacks... +4000
Chicago Cubs........... +4000
Chicago White Sox...... +4000
Milwaukee Brewers...... +5000
San Diego Padres....... +5000
Colorado Rockies....... +6600
New York Mets.......... +6600
Minnesota Twins........ +7500
Miami Marlins.......... +10000
Houston Astros......... +20000

[EXhoosier10]

It's still too early to be placing full size wagers, but with most high-impact FA's off the board, the futures landscape shouldn't change too much from here on out barring a Shields to Toronto or Strasburg/Zimmerman trade.

my unit this year will be $50, so you'll notice these aren't huge bets yet
My current WS Future bets are:
Nationals: $11 @ +1000 to win $110
Red Sox..: $10 @ +1600 to win $160
Indians..: $ 5 @ +3300 to win $165
Pirates..: $ 5 @ +3300 to win $165
Athletics: $ 5 @ +4000 to win $200

[Big Bear]

white sox are terrible man.

dont waste your money.

I like the Dodgers, Nationals, Red Sox, Tigers, and Mariners.

[EXhoosier10]

Again, these are best available odds culled from three different sites and not necessarily what you will find at any one book.

Team Name.............. 1/11...... 1/21...... 1/24........ 2wk % change
Washington Nationals... +1000..... +650...... +650........ 4.2%
Los Angeles Dodgers.... +750...... +800...... +800........ -0.7%
Los Angeles Angels..... +1200..... +1200..... +1200....... 0%
St. Louis Cardinals.... +1600..... +1200..... +1200....... 1.8%
Boston Red Sox......... +1600..... +1600..... +1400....... 0.8%
Detroit Tigers......... +1200..... +1400..... +1400....... -1%
Chicago Cubs........... +2200..... +2100..... +1800....... 0.9%
Seattle Mariners....... +2000..... +1800..... +1800....... 0.5%
San Francisco Giants... +1800..... +1800..... +2000....... -0.5%
Kansas City Royals..... +2500..... +2500..... +2500....... 0%
Toronto Blue Jays...... +2800..... +2800..... +2500....... 0.4%
Baltimore Orioles...... +2500..... +2500..... +2800....... -0.4%
Chicago White Sox...... +4000..... +2800..... +2800....... 1%
Cleveland Indians...... +3300..... +2800..... +2800....... 0.5%
New York Yankees....... +2800..... +2800..... +3000....... -0.2%
Atlanta Braves......... +2800..... +3300..... +3300....... -0.5%
Oakland Athletics...... +4000..... +4000..... +3300....... 0.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates..... +3300..... +3300..... +3300....... 0%
San Diego Padres....... +4500..... +3500..... +3300....... 0.8%
Miami Marlins.......... +4000..... +3750..... +3500....... 0.3%
New York Mets.......... +3300..... +3300..... +3800....... -0.4%
Texas Rangers.......... +4500..... +4500..... +4500....... 0%
Cincinnati Reds........ +5000..... +5000..... +5000....... 0%
Milwaukee Brewers...... +4000..... +5000..... +5000....... -0.5%
Tampa Bay Rays......... +6600..... +6600..... +6600....... 0%
Houston Astros......... +15000.... +9000..... +10000...... 0.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks... +11000.... +11000.... +12500...... -0.1%
Minnesota Twins........ +15000.... +12500.... +12500...... 0.1%
Philadelphia Phillies.. +15000.... +12500.... +12500...... 0.1%
Colorado Rockies....... +12500.... +12500.... +15000...... -0.1%

Sum of Odds............ 110.5%.... 117.5%.... 118.4%

[mlb]

white sox are terrible man.

dont waste your money.

I like the Dodgers, Nationals, Red Sox, Tigers, and Mariners.

I just don't see the value in these top teams - obviously winning it is winning it but they all can't win it ... I like Mariners as a middle of the road shot

[Big Bear]

What casino did u see Cubs at +2100? just curious

thanks

[EXhoosier10]

Fun little note: the lines have opened up over the past week+. All teams but the Nationals, Indians, A's, and Cardinals have the same or better lines than they did on 1/11.


Team Name............ 1/11.... 1/21.... 1/24.... 1/29...... 2wk % change
Washington Nationals. +1000... +1000... +650.... +700...... -0.8%
Los Angeles Dodgers.. +750.... +750.... +800.... +800...... 0%
Los Angeles Angels... +1200... +1200... +1200... +1200..... 0%
St. Louis Cardinals.. +1600... +1500... +1200... +1200..... 0%
Boston Red Sox....... +1600... +1600... +1600... +1600..... 0%
Detroit Tigers....... +1200... +1200... +1400... +1600..... -0.8%
Seattle Mariners..... +2000... +1800... +1800... +2000..... -0.5%
San Francisco Giants. +1800... +1600... +1800... +2000..... -0.5%
Chicago Cubs......... +2200... +2100... +2100... +2500..... -0.7%
Kansas City Royals... +2500... +2500... +2500... +2500..... 0%
Toronto Blue Jays.... +2800... +2800... +2800... +2800..... 0%
Baltimore Orioles.... +2500... +2500... +2500... +2800..... -0.4%
Cleveland Indians.... +3300... +2800... +2800... +2800..... 0%
New York Yankees..... +2800... +2800... +2800... +3300..... -0.5%
Atlanta Braves....... +2800... +2800... +3300... +3300..... 0%
Oakland Athletics.... +4000... +5000... +4000... +3300..... 0.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates... +3300... +3300... +3300... +3300..... 0%
New York Mets........ +3300... +3300... +3300... +3300..... 0%
Chicago White Sox.... +4000... +3750... +2800... +4000..... -1%
San Diego Padres..... +4500... +3500... +3500... +5000..... -0.8%
Miami Marlins........ +4000... +3750... +3750... +5000..... -0.6%
Texas Rangers........ +4500... +4500... +4500... +5000..... -0.2%
Cincinnati Reds...... +5000... +5000... +5000... +5000..... 0%
Milwaukee Brewers.... +4000... +4000... +5000... +5000..... 0%
Tampa Bay Rays....... +6600... +6600... +6600... +6600..... 0%
Houston Astros....... +15000.. +10000.. +9000... +10000.... -0.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks. +11000.. +11000.. +11000.. +12500.... -0.1%
Philadelphia Phillies +15000.. +12500.. +12500.. +12500.... 0%
Minnesota Twins...... +15000.. +12500.. +12500.. +15000.... -0.1%
Colorado Rockies..... +12500.. +12500.. +12500.. +15000.... -0.1%

Sum of Odds.......... 110.5%.. 117.5%.. 118.4%.. 110.7%

[EXhoosier10]

[U]
Team Name............ 1/11.... 1/21.... 1/24.... 1/29.... 2/9....... CS Odds
Washington Nationals. +1000... +1000... +650.... +700.... +560...... +325
Los Angeles Dodgers.. +750.... +750.... +800.... +800.... +800...... +400
Los Angeles Angels... +1200... +1200... +1200... +1200... +1200..... +600
St. Louis Cardinals.. +1600... +1500... +1200... +1200... +1200..... +650
Boston Red Sox....... +1600... +1600... +1600... +1600... +1600..... +550
Detroit Tigers....... +1200... +1200... +1400... +1600... +1600..... +750
Seattle Mariners..... +2000... +1800... +1800... +2000... +1900..... +700
San Francisco Giants. +1800... +1600... +1800... +2000... +2000..... +1000
Chicago Cubs......... +2200... +2100... +2100... +2500... +2000..... +800
Toronto Blue Jays.... +2800... +2800... +2800... +2800... +2700..... +900
Baltimore Orioles.... +2500... +2500... +2500... +2800... +2700..... +1300
Cleveland Indians.... +3300... +2800... +2800... +2800... +2800..... +1400
Kansas City Royals... +2500... +2500... +2500... +2500... +3300..... +1400
New York Yankees..... +2800... +2800... +2800... +3300... +3300..... +1200
Oakland Athletics.... +4000... +5000... +4000... +3300... +3300..... +1400
Pittsburgh Pirates... +3300... +3300... +3300... +3300... +3300..... +1400
New York Mets........ +3300... +3300... +3300... +3300... +3300..... +1600
Chicago White Sox.... +4000... +3750... +2800... +4000... +3400..... +1200
San Diego Padres..... +4500... +3500... +3500... +5000... +4850..... +1600
Atlanta Braves....... +2800... +2800... +3300... +3300... +5000..... +2500
Miami Marlins........ +4000... +3750... +3750... +5000... +5000..... +2000
Texas Rangers........ +4500... +4500... +4500... +5000... +5000..... +2000
Milwaukee Brewers.... +4000... +4000... +5000... +5000... +5000..... +2500
Cincinnati Reds...... +5000... +5000... +5000... +5000... +5250..... +2500
Tampa Bay Rays....... +6600... +6600... +6600... +6600... +6600..... +3300
Houston Astros....... +15000.. +10000.. +9000... +10000.. +10000.... +5000
Arizona Diamondbacks. +11000.. +11000.. +11000.. +12500.. +15000.... +7500
Philadelphia Phillies +15000.. +12500.. +12500.. +12500.. +15000.... +7500
Minnesota Twins...... +15000.. +12500.. +12500.. +15000.. +15000.... +5000
Colorado Rockies..... +12500.. +12500.. +12500.. +15000.. +15000.... +5000

Sum of Odds.......... 110.5%.. 117.5%.. 118.4%.. 110.7%.. 113.0%

[mlb]

[U]
Team Name............ 1/11.... 1/21.... 1/24.... 1/29.... 2/9....... CS Odds
Washington Nationals. +1000... +1000... +650.... +700.... +560...... +325
Los Angeles Dodgers.. +750.... +750.... +800.... +800.... +800...... +400
Los Angeles Angels... +1200... +1200... +1200... +1200... +1200..... +600
St. Louis Cardinals.. +1600... +1500... +1200... +1200... +1200..... +650
Boston Red Sox....... +1600... +1600... +1600... +1600... +1600..... +550
Detroit Tigers....... +1200... +1200... +1400... +1600... +1600..... +750
Seattle Mariners..... +2000... +1800... +1800... +2000... +1900..... +700
San Francisco Giants. +1800... +1600... +1800... +2000... +2000..... +1000
Chicago Cubs......... +2200... +2100... +2100... +2500... +2000..... +800
Toronto Blue Jays.... +2800... +2800... +2800... +2800... +2700..... +900
Baltimore Orioles.... +2500... +2500... +2500... +2800... +2700..... +1300
Cleveland Indians.... +3300... +2800... +2800... +2800... +2800..... +1400
Kansas City Royals... +2500... +2500... +2500... +2500... +3300..... +1400
New York Yankees..... +2800... +2800... +2800... +3300... +3300..... +1200
Oakland Athletics.... +4000... +5000... +4000... +3300... +3300..... +1400
Pittsburgh Pirates... +3300... +3300... +3300... +3300... +3300..... +1400
New York Mets........ +3300... +3300... +3300... +3300... +3300..... +1600
Chicago White Sox.... +4000... +3750... +2800... +4000... +3400..... +1200
San Diego Padres..... +4500... +3500... +3500... +5000... +4850..... +1600
Atlanta Braves....... +2800... +2800... +3300... +3300... +5000..... +2500
Miami Marlins........ +4000... +3750... +3750... +5000... +5000..... +2000
Texas Rangers........ +4500... +4500... +4500... +5000... +5000..... +2000
Milwaukee Brewers.... +4000... +4000... +5000... +5000... +5000..... +2500
Cincinnati Reds...... +5000... +5000... +5000... +5000... +5250..... +2500
Tampa Bay Rays....... +6600... +6600... +6600... +6600... +6600..... +3300
Houston Astros....... +15000.. +10000.. +9000... +10000.. +10000.... +5000
Arizona Diamondbacks. +11000.. +11000.. +11000.. +12500.. +15000.... +7500
Philadelphia Phillies +15000.. +12500.. +12500.. +12500.. +15000.... +7500
Minnesota Twins...... +15000.. +12500.. +12500.. +15000.. +15000.... +5000
Colorado Rockies..... +12500.. +12500.. +12500.. +15000.. +15000.... +5000

Sum of Odds.......... 110.5%.. 117.5%.. 118.4%.. 110.7%.. 113.0%

What are you referring to with Sum of Odds? What would 100% be?

Thanks man

[EXhoosier10]

What are you referring to with Sum of Odds? What would 100% be?

Thanks man

113.0% is the vig. so a normal -105 /-105 game is 51.2% breakeven for each team, summing to 102.4%. so 2.4% overall vig. In the case of these Feb 9th WS futures, all odds converted to breakeven points sum to 113%. So across the board 13% vig

[EXhoosier10]

Interesting to note that heritage still lists SD at +4850 even after landing shields. 5dimes has them at +2700

[mlb]

thanks man - More I look at Sam Diego, the less I like them. Thrown together like the Blue Jays from 3 years ago and the Marlins from 2 years ago.

[EXhoosier10]

I don't necessarily like them either, just pointing out the line. The entirety of SD's infield is too weak to be a real competitor in the division. They're just one of the 7 or so take in the nl wild card hunt, now.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Thanks for the futures odds and tracking their movement. Appreciate it.

[oChRoNiCo]

Any thoughts on these 4 OAK +2900, NYY +3300, PIT +3300, & MIA +5000?

[Big Bear]

Any thoughts on these 4 OAK +2900, NYY +3300, PIT +3300, & MIA +5000?

Miami Marlins and NY Yankees are the most likely out of those 4 teams to spend money at the trade deadline.

I think that is something worth considering.

The Pirates have a reputation of being cheap.. and the A's made big moves at the last trade deadline and it back fired badly... my guess is Billy Beane is probably a little gun shy.

Yankees and Marlins owners aren't afraid to spend money.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Miami Marlins and NY Yankees are the most likely out of those 4 teams to spend money at the trade deadline.

I think that is something worth considering.

The Pirates have a reputation of being cheap.. and the A's made big moves at the last trade deadline and it back fired badly... my guess is Billy Beane is probably a little gun shy.

Yankees and Marlins owners aren't afraid to spend money.

A's and Beane aren't gun shy. Guy is willing to lay it all on the line and compete in the moment. Sometimes it pays off and sometimes it does not. A's one of teams I hope the books get wrong on W/L's. I think the M's will be priced too high and the Angels Athletics too low.

We shall see.

[EXhoosier10]

Any thoughts on these 4 OAK +2900, NYY +3300, PIT +3300, & MIA +5000?

As i mentioned in post 12, I played Oak at +4000 and Pit at +3300, among others.

Personally, I don't like the yankees in a division where 4 teams are projected as .500. That means that they're going to be in a dog fight to win the division and make the playoffs.

Miami is a crapshoot at their odds. They're playing in the worst division in baseball, which opposite to the yankees, means they're probably going to win a game or 5 more than they would if they played in either of the other NL divisions. They'll play 38 games against ATL and PHI whereas other wildcard teams will play them only 12 times. So if you expect MIA to be a .500 talent team, scheduling allows them to play as a 82-86 win team. At +5000 (10th worst WS odds), i think its worth a play if you expect them to be better than .500 based on talent alone. Personally, I'm in no rush to throw money on them this early. 3 months into the season we'll have a lot more info and they'll probably be down to +2000 and then i'll consider a play on them.

[EXhoosier10]

Also note re: scheduling, here is the interleague schedule
AL East plays NL East
AL Central plays NL Central
AL West plays NL West

So those looking to pick a second wildcard out of the NL east, they're at a 1ish game disadvantage over the NL Central, who plays the weakest AL division. On the other hand, the AL East is much more likely to gain a 1 game advantage over the rest of the AL due to playing the easiest division in the NL.

[slayer14]

yankees have not bought 2 decent starting pitchers they relying on sabbathia cause he signed a massive contract deal

[Big Bear]

A's and Beane aren't gun shy. Guy is willing to lay it all on the line and compete in the moment. Sometimes it pays off and sometimes it does not. A's one of teams I hope the books get wrong on W/L's. I think the M's will be priced too high and the Angels Athletics too low.

We shall see.

The A's will have a hard time having team chemistry.

they have a completely new infield.

The pitching will be decent but not elite similar to the Atlanta Braves average rotation with an above average bullpen.

But man ole man are the A's going to struggle offensively or what???

You got a DH in Butler who can't run and you got a left fielder a position who is supposed to be a position played by a good hitter you got Sam Fuld playing left field???? yeah he is good defensively and he is fast but he is a miserable hitter.

who the hell is going to bat 3rd for the A's ???? Reddick? lol the A's may finish last in the AL West

[Big Bear]

yankees have not bought 2 decent starting pitchers they relying on sabbathia cause he signed a massive contract deal

Pineda
Eovaldi
Tanaka

all have better stuff than Sabbathia.

[EXhoosier10]

Current

Team Name............ WS...... WSodd. CS...... CSodd. Projected Wins (Atlantis opener)
Washington Nationals. +650.... 13.3%. +325.... 23.5%. 93
Los Angeles Dodgers.. +850.... 10.5%. +450.... 18.2%. 91
St. Louis Cardinals.. +1200... 7.7%.. +650.... 13.3%. 87.5
Los Angeles Angels... +1300... 7.1%.. +600.... 14.3%. 87.5
Boston Red Sox....... +1600... 5.9%.. +600.... 14.3%. 86
Seattle Mariners..... +1600... 5.9%.. +700.... 12.5%. 85
Chicago Cubs......... +1900... 5%.... +800.... 11.1%. 81.5
Detroit Tigers....... +2000... 4.8%.. +900.... 10%... 86.5
San Diego Padres..... +2000... 4.8%.. +1000... 9.1%.. 84
San Francisco Giants. +2000... 4.8%.. +1000... 9.1%.. 85
Chicago White Sox.... +2600... 3.7%.. +1300... 7.1%.. 82
Baltimore Orioles.... +2700... 3.6%.. +1300... 7.1%.. 84.5
Toronto Blue Jays.... +3000... 3.2%.. +1400... 6.7%.. 83.5
Cleveland Indians.... +3300... 2.9%.. +1400... 6.7%.. 81
Kansas City Royals... +3300... 2.9%.. +1400... 6.7%.. 83
New York Mets........ +3300... 2.9%.. +1600... 5.9%.. 81
New York Yankees..... +3300... 2.9%.. +1400... 6.7%.. 80
Pittsburgh Pirates... +3300... 2.9%.. +1400... 6.7%.. 85.5
Oakland Athletics.... +4000... 2.4%.. +2000... 4.8%.. 82.5
Miami Marlins........ +5000... 2%.... +2000... 4.8%.. 81.5
Texas Rangers........ +5000... 2%.... +2500... 3.8%.. 76.5
Milwaukee Brewers.... +6600... 1.5%.. +3300... 2.9%.. 80
Tampa Bay Rays....... +6600... 1.5%.. +3300... 2.9%.. 77.5
Cincinnati Reds...... +7000... 1.4%.. +3500... 2.8%.. 79
Atlanta Braves....... +9000... 1.1%.. +4500... 2.2%.. 73.5
Houston Astros....... +10000.. 1%.... +5000... 2%.... 73.5
Arizona Diamondbacks. +15000.. 0.7%.. +7500... 1.3%.. 72.5
Colorado Rockies..... +15000.. 0.7%.. +6000... 1.6%.. 70.5
Minnesota Twins...... +15000.. 0.7%.. +5000... 2%.... 68.5
Philadelphia Phillies +30000.. 0.3%.. +15000.. 0.7%.. 67

WS vig = 110.5%..
ALCS vig = 107.5%... NLCS vig = 113.2%

[Big Bear]

is it safe to say all of these teams odds will drop the closer we get to opening day?

[EXhoosier10]

is it safe to say all of these teams odds will drop the closer we get to opening day?

Should see movement, but 10% vig on WS futures across books is about right.