Does the +1.5 RL even help 5% of the time?

[Cappinpicks]

wondering since every big fav that wins easily covers it regardless if they are only up 1 late or down in the game.. just look at mariners angels oakland cardinals every day same thing wonder how buried books are from the -1.5 RL gift value

[Cappinpicks]

JJgold says he dont trust -1.5 yet it always wins.. LOL talk about bad luck if he lost with it

[Nitronett]

You're starting to think...

[Cappinpicks]

You're starting to think...

I guess its just a sucker bet to new morons that haven't bet before? kinda of weird

[Nitronett]

I guess its just a sucker bet to new morons that haven't bet before? kinda of weird

I post my picks on here and I take many run lines. Just depends on value. Check me out . New to this site 17-9 record. Hit a lot of RL/dog bets

[Cappinpicks]

I post my picks on here and I take many run lines. Just depends on value. Check me out . New to this site 17-9 record. Hit a lot of RL/dog bets

yea but -1.5 RL right? i mean +1.5 is a waste of money x2 since juice

[brodie]

well if they're gonna win by 1 then they should win by 2 right??? i was on cards 1.5 last night and my boy matty adams hit the 2run walkoff for the win

[posey]

well if they're gonna win by 1 then they should win by 2 right??? i was on cards 1.5 last night and my boy matty adams hit the 2run walkoff for the win

2014:
- 1336 games
- RL covered: 1124
- RL not covered: 210
- 210/1336 games with 1 run differential = 16%
2013:
- 2430 games
- RL covered: 1992
- RL not covered: 430
- 430/2430 games with 1 run differential = 18%
2012:
- 2430 games
- RL covered: 2055
- RL not covered: 368
- 368/2430 games with 1 run differential = 15%

[Cappinpicks]

2014:
- 1336 games
- RL covered: 1124
- RL not covered: 210
- 210/1336 games with 1 run differential = 16%
2013:
- 2430 games
- RL covered: 1992
- RL not covered: 430
- 430/2430 games with 1 run differential = 18%
2012:
- 2430 games
- RL covered: 2055
- RL not covered: 368
- 368/2430 games with 1 run differential = 15%

wow that seems high for this yr, maybe that factors in dogs -1.5?

[posey]

May be so, I'll post a few more results in a few minutes. I did only some basic queries.

[Nitronett]

Never do +1.5 I think it's one of the dumbest bets in mlb..

[posey]

I agree. I don't like this type of bet either.

[asdf21]

Posey, you seem to have access to a huge database. These numbers are interesting. I understand the OP's thoughts, the tradeoff in terms of juice seems to be not worth it. But mind you, there's a huge difference between winning or losing a bet. Sounds simple, but that's all there is to it. Same reason why it kills you on the long run if you lose half a point on a total bet because you didn't catch the early lines.

I'd love to know the difference on my total bankroll if I took the +1.5 for every -1.5 played so far. Maybe someone who's keeping track of his bets posts his results here.

[BigDofBA]

Never do +1.5 I think it's one of the dumbest bets in mlb..

I think it depends on the juice.

I wouldn't take +1.5 at -160 but if it was like -110 or even money and I thought the team had a chance to win straight up I might take it.

[Cappinpicks]

yea i might get it at -110 but seems so easy for angels/whoever to blow them out in 1 inning

[posey]

I don't know why the numbers are a little bit screwed, but that's what killersports gave me. Maybe it's because in some games both teams are at equal odds. Forget the numbers from above, use those!

2012:
- 977 wins by dogs
- 311 wins by dogs by 1 run (.318)
- 667 wins by dogs by at least 2 runs (.682)
- 1375 wins by favs
- 360 wins by favs by 1 run (.262)
- 1015 wins by favs by at least 2 runs (.738)

2013:
- 983 wins by dogs
- 304 wins by dogs by 1 run (.309)
- 679 wins by dogs by at least 2 runs (.691)
- 1368 wins by favs
- 419 wins by favs by 1 run (.306)
- 949 wins by favs by at least 2 runs (.694)

2014:
- 566 wins by dogs
- 178 wins by dogs by 1 run (.314)
- 388 wins by dogs by at least 2 runs (.686)
- 704 wins by favs
- 200 wins by favs by 1 run (.284)
- 504 wins by favs by at least 2 runs (.716)

[EXhoosier10]

I don't know why the numbers are a little bit screwed, but that's what killersports gave me. Maybe it's because in some games both teams are at equal odds. Forget the numbers from above, use those!

2012:
- 977 wins by dogs
- 311 wins by dogs by 1 run (.318)
- 667 wins by dogs by at least 2 runs (.682)
- 1375 wins by favs
- 360 wins by favs by 1 run (.262)
- 1015 wins by favs by at least 2 runs (.738)

2013:
- 983 wins by dogs
- 304 wins by dogs by 1 run (.309)
- 679 wins by dogs by at least 2 runs (.691)
- 1368 wins by favs
- 419 wins by favs by 1 run (.306)
- 949 wins by favs by at least 2 runs (.694)

2014:
- 566 wins by dogs
- 178 wins by dogs by 1 run (.314)
- 388 wins by dogs by at least 2 runs (.686)
- 704 wins by favs
- 200 wins by favs by 1 run (.284)
- 504 wins by favs by at least 2 runs (.716)

so 2012, dogs taken on the +1.5 RL won 977 + 360 = 1337 times. There were 977 + 1375 = 2352 games for a win percent of 56.8%
in 2013, that is 983+419 / (983+1368) = 59.6%
in 2014 that is (566 + 200) / (566+704) = 60.3%

equating those to american odds, thats -131, -148, and -152.

for reference, today's +1.5 RL's average out to -155.

[BarstoolProphet]

2014:
- 1336 games
- RL covered: 1124
- RL not covered: 210
- 210/1336 games with 1 run differential = 16%
2013:
- 2430 games
- RL covered: 1992
- RL not covered: 430
- 430/2430 games with 1 run differential = 18%
2012:
- 2430 games
- RL covered: 2055
- RL not covered: 368
- 368/2430 games with 1 run differential = 15%

If you do not mind , could you break this further to home and away stats. tia

[posey]

Yeah, gonna do it tomorrow or the day after tomorrow Not enough time left today. Sorry.

[Cappinpicks]

pretty crazy to think it hits over 10% as far as helping you win.. either way the juice is retarded