Machine Choice season-long Royals thread

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  • Machine Choice
    SBR MVP
    • 12-12-08
    • 3997

    #1
    Machine Choice season-long Royals thread
    I specialize in one team: the Kansas City Royals. I will bet them any way I see fit: straight, fade, over/under. I listen to every Royals pregame show, post game show, read every box score, and obviously watch the games. I know this team. I can "feel" when they are gonna win and lose. Watch.
  • Machine Choice
    SBR MVP
    • 12-12-08
    • 3997

    #2
    Starting bankroll: $6,000
    Comment
    • Machine Choice
      SBR MVP
      • 12-12-08
      • 3997

      #3
      4/23/14

      Royals +112

      Masterson vs Vargas

      $273 to win $306

      Analysis later when I have time.
      Comment
      • dlunc3
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 10-31-09
        • 9129

        #4
        Odd bet size. What made you come up with $273?

        Will you be betting every game?

        Have you done this in the past?

        I am a huge philly guy, but i like this kc core and actually have $1200 on their season win total over 82 wins.

        So ill be curious to see what you have to say daily and hope you ride out the whole season.

        Best of luck
        Comment
        • drfunkmaster
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-29-08
          • 11162

          #5
          really... did you anticipate the chock job in the 8th inning in your capping
          Comment
          • remeedella
            SBR MVP
            • 04-17-12
            • 4089

            #6
            kc is about to lose. This is like the 5th losing game in a row where they give up a lead or a tie in the last 3 innings. I can never count on them there
            Comment
            • drfunkmaster
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-29-08
              • 11162

              #7
              Comment
              • Machine Choice
                SBR MVP
                • 12-12-08
                • 3997

                #8
                0-1

                Starting bankroll: $6,000
                Current bankroll: $5,727
                Comment
                • jay89
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 08-04-13
                  • 671

                  #9
                  bet the royals last night at +135 on SIA, would have been awesome if that hit. Loved the southpaw matchup but masterson pitched well enough tonight...
                  Comment
                  • Machine Choice
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-12-08
                    • 3997

                    #10
                    4/24/14

                    Indians -128

                    $260 to win $203

                    Royals do not play well in Cleveland. Period. They didn't get it done last night despite a pitching / bullpen advantage, and I don't see them getting it done today as Cleveland goes for the series win in a day game. Chen has soft stuff and has not been dominant this year. He is 8-20 in his last 28 road starts. Tribe will close this out.
                    Comment
                    • PorkChop
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 09-18-08
                      • 8193

                      #11
                      Royals 0 3.5.
                      Comment
                      • riffraff24
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 04-20-11
                        • 7234

                        #12
                        machine. Nice to see you back. GL man
                        Comment
                        • riffraff24
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 04-20-11
                          • 7234

                          #13
                          Originally posted by dlunc3
                          Odd bet size. What made you come up with $273?
                          Assuming dividing by 22 and using Heavens Gate bankroll management?
                          Comment
                          • Machine Choice
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-12-08
                            • 3997

                            #14
                            Originally posted by riffraff24
                            Assuming dividing by 22 and using Heavens Gate bankroll management?
                            Yes. Eventually I will divide by 11 instead. But its too early in the season.
                            Comment
                            • Emancipator
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 04-12-13
                              • 788

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Machine Choice
                              4/24/14

                              Indians -128

                              $260 to win $203

                              Royals do not play well in Cleveland. Period. They didn't get it done last night despite a pitching / bullpen advantage, and I don't see them getting it done today as Cleveland goes for the series win in a day game. Chen has soft stuff and has not been dominant this year. He is 8-20 in his last 28 road starts. Tribe will close this out.
                              On it as well BOL
                              Comment
                              • Machine Choice
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-12-08
                                • 3997

                                #16
                                xxxxxxxxxxxxx

                                GAME OVER

                                xxxxxxxxxxxxx
                                Comment
                                • Machine Choice
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-12-08
                                  • 3997

                                  #17
                                  1-1

                                  Starting bankroll: $6,000
                                  Current bankroll: $5,930
                                  Comment
                                  • Machine Choice
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-12-08
                                    • 3997

                                    #18
                                    xxxxxxxxxxxx

                                    BONUS FEATURE TRIGGERED

                                    xxxxxxxxxxxx


                                    4/24/2014

                                    BOSTON -119

                                    $260 to win $218


                                    Sabathia had a 9.93 ERA in three games at Fenway in 2013, and he looks even worse this year and already lost to Boston last week. Pine Tar factor in Boston's favor as they nail the series win in primetime.
                                    Comment
                                    • Machine Choice
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-12-08
                                      • 3997

                                      #19
                                      1-2

                                      Starting Bankroll: $6,000
                                      Current Bankroll: $5,670
                                      Comment
                                      • Machine Choice
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-12-08
                                        • 3997

                                        #20
                                        4/25/14

                                        Royals/Orioles under 8.5 (-120)

                                        $258 to win $215


                                        Orioles haven't scored many runs at home this year vs right handers (2.6 rpg in last 8) and Ventura can deal. Royals haven't scored many runs period, and Jimenez has shown the ability to shut them down. I see this as a 4-3 type game. Especially with both teams coming off the road last night. This will be a brisk game.
                                        Comment
                                        • Big Bear
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 11-01-11
                                          • 43253

                                          #21
                                          Brisk as in chilly temperatures tonight?
                                          Comment
                                          • Machine Choice
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-12-08
                                            • 3997

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Big Bear
                                            Brisk as in chilly temperatures tonight?
                                            Brisk as in fast moving. The Royals have zero plate discipline. Last night it took only 101 pitches for Kluber to throw a CG against KC. Pathetic.
                                            Comment
                                            • drfunkmaster
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-29-08
                                              • 11162

                                              #23
                                              jizzbag jimenz sucks..he is on the over...i took baltimore.
                                              Comment
                                              • Machine Choice
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-12-08
                                                • 3997

                                                #24
                                                Late West Coast Play 4/25

                                                Rockies/Dodgers over 7

                                                $258 to win $215
                                                Comment
                                                • Machine Choice
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-12-08
                                                  • 3997

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Machine Choice
                                                  4/25/14

                                                  Royals/Orioles under 8.5 (-120)

                                                  $258 to win $215


                                                  Orioles haven't scored many runs at home this year vs right handers (2.6 rpg in last 8) and Ventura can deal. Royals haven't scored many runs period, and Jimenez has shown the ability to shut them down. I see this as a 4-3 type game. Especially with both teams coming off the road last night. This will be a brisk game.
                                                  xxxxxxxxxxxxx

                                                  GAME OVER

                                                  xxxxxxxxxxxxx

                                                  2-2

                                                  Starting Bankroll: $6,000
                                                  Current Bankroll: $5,885
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Machine Choice
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-12-08
                                                    • 3997

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Machine Choice
                                                    Late West Coast Play 4/25

                                                    Rockies/Dodgers over 7

                                                    $258 to win $215
                                                    xxxxxxxxxxxxx

                                                    GAME OVER

                                                    xxxxxxxxxxxxx

                                                    Overall: 3-2

                                                    Starting Bankroll: $6,000
                                                    Current Bankroll: $6,100
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Down_Goes Bookie
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 06-18-13
                                                      • 422

                                                      #27
                                                      Cool thread. Suggestion, might think about breaking out your YTD record as you go by:

                                                      KC games
                                                      Other games
                                                      Overall

                                                      I'm especially interested in how you fare with KC given your knowledge of the team. BOL.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Machine Choice
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-12-08
                                                        • 3997

                                                        #28
                                                        4/26/2014

                                                        Last night the Royals were only able to muster 4 runs vs a righty whose ERA was over 6.5 (Jimenez). Tonight they face Chen, a lefty, and the Royals are only batting .212 vs lefties this year, getting shut down by Dallas Keuchel, Matt Moore and Chris Sale earlier this year. They are averaging only 3.4 rpg on the road and Chen held the Royals to a 3.29 ERA last year. Looking at Guthrie, he held the Orioles to a 1.50 ERA in two starts vs them last year and is very comfortable at Camden Yards where he pitched for five years with the O's. He owns their line-up, and the O's are averaging a pathetic 2.4 rpg at home so far this year. Royals bullpen is best in the AL and is at full strength after Ventura went 8 innings last night. Although I expect the underdog Royals to win this game, I will take the easier bet on the total.

                                                        Royals/Orioles under 9 (-120)

                                                        $390 to win $325
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Machine Choice
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-12-08
                                                          • 3997

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Machine Choice
                                                          4/26/2014

                                                          Last night the Royals were only able to muster 4 runs vs a righty whose ERA was over 6.5 (Jimenez). Tonight they face Chen, a lefty, and the Royals are only batting .212 vs lefties this year, getting shut down by Dallas Keuchel, Matt Moore and Chris Sale earlier this year. They are averaging only 3.4 rpg on the road and Chen held the Royals to a 3.29 ERA last year. Looking at Guthrie, he held the Orioles to a 1.50 ERA in two starts vs them last year and is very comfortable at Camden Yards where he pitched for five years with the O's. He owns their line-up, and the O's are averaging a pathetic 2.4 rpg at home so far this year. Royals bullpen is best in the AL and is at full strength after Ventura went 8 innings last night. Although I expect the underdog Royals to win this game, I will take the easier bet on the total.

                                                          Royals/Orioles under 9 (-120)

                                                          $390 to win $325
                                                          xxxxxxxxxxxx
                                                          GAME OVER
                                                          xxxxxxxxxxxx

                                                          4-2
                                                          Starting bankroll: $6,000
                                                          Current bankroll: $6,425
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Machine Choice
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-12-08
                                                            • 3997

                                                            #30
                                                            4/27

                                                            The under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 games between these two teams and I don't see that changing Sunday. Shields struck out 12 in his last game and hasn't allowed more than 1 earned run in any of his last three road starts. Orioles continue not to score runs at home (2.4 RPG) and Miguel Gonzalez has a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. This looks like another certain under.

                                                            Royals/Orioles under 8

                                                            $390 to win $354
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Machine Choice
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-12-08
                                                              • 3997

                                                              #31
                                                              Overall: 4-3

                                                              Starting Bankroll: $6,000
                                                              Current Bankroll: $6,035
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Machine Choice
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-12-08
                                                                • 3997

                                                                #32
                                                                4/28/14 LA Angels (-128) $274 to win $214
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Machine Choice
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 12-12-08
                                                                  • 3997

                                                                  #33
                                                                  <br>
                                                                  <br>

                                                                  xxxxxxxxxxxx
                                                                  GAME OVER
                                                                  xxxxxxxxxxxx

                                                                  Overall: 5-3
                                                                  Starting bankroll: $6,000
                                                                  Current bankroll: $6,249
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Machine Choice
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 12-12-08
                                                                    • 3997

                                                                    #34
                                                                    xxxxx
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Machine Choice
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-12-08
                                                                      • 3997

                                                                      #35
                                                                      4/29/2014

                                                                      The Royals come off a day of rest and get to see Dustin McGowan, who has been blown up three times this year. Last time out he got scorched by the shitty Orioles, who are averaging some of the lowest run production of any team in the majors. Now he faces the Royals who are starting to heat up, with Moustakas and Infante starting to tee off big time. Jason Vargas has given up only 2 ERs in 15 home innings and the Jays are hitting only .225 vs lefties this year. On paper this looks like a mismatch in favor of the Royals. Unfortunately, the Royals normally lose in those situations. But not lately: they are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Lots of humidity in the park today, so I expect Vargas to be especially sharp and nasty. Jays should be in for a long night

                                                                      I don't pay juice higher than -139 and I don't do RLs, so I have structured my bet into a -1 wager by using a combination of the RL and ML.

                                                                      Royals -1
                                                                      $273 to win $279
                                                                      Comment
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