Let's beat the book

[Jimmy the Creep]

Just follow me and you will win. I sold my soul just for you. For tracking purposes we will use BetOnline odds and we will start the season with a faux $1000.00 bank roll. Our first bet won't be for a few days. Stay tuned.

[Jimmy the Creep]

I am a simple man and I have a simple system. It may not be unique but I figured it out all on my own near the end of last season and it seemed to work pretty well

here's how it works. I look at the power rankings list. I take the top 5 teams and the bottom 5 teams. If a team in the top 5 loses its first game in a 3 game series to a team that is ( out side the top 10 ) teams I will bet that they will win at least one of the next two games. Example, Boston a top 5 team just lost to the Phillies. I think the Phillies are like 24th or something. Do you really think the Phillies will sweep Boston ? I don't. So I'm going to bet that Boston will win at least one of the next two games. (A) bet (B) bet. The only filter I have is that the starting pitcher for the team your betting on must be playing in one of those games. And of course the team they lost to must be outside the top 10.

The bottom 5 teams are just the opposite. If a bottom 5 team wins its first game to a team that is out side the bottom 10 then you can bet that the team in the bottom 5 will lose one of the next two games. (A) bet (B) bet. Same filter as above. The team your betting on has to have their best pitcher playing in at least one of the next two games. And they have to be out side the bottom 10 teams.

As far as bank management goes you guys do what you want, but I don't like to gamble so for me the a bet will be 1 unit 5% of my bank. With every win my unit gets bigger. I'm in this to make a living just like you crazy guys. If you can get your bank up to say 20K and your only risking 3% as 1 unit that's 600 hundred bucks and you win. Every day. Well you do the math. Not hard to live on that. And I like nice things but I don't need millions to be happy.

Also. Pass any time two top 10 or two bottom teams are playing each other. With that many teams to watch we should enough plays to keep us happy.

Ok, go a head and poke holes in my simple little system. I'm ready for it and it might be helpful to get some advice.

I just realized Boston lost to Baltimore not the Phillies. Doesn't matter you get the drift. Tomorrow we will fatten our banks with Boston. I think the (A) bet can be 25% of your bank.

[Skeletor42]

Does home field advantage figure into your system or does it apply home or away?

[Spedizzo]

I will ride along for this

[Jimmy the Creep]

Does home field advantage figure into your system or does it apply home or away?

Hmmm, never even gave it a thought.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Here we go ! Today we have a huge problem. And that problem is...do you want the pile of gold or the pile of diamonds ? YEAH BABY !!

So if you read #2 you will see that Boston is a top 5 team and they lost to Baltimore # 15 on the power ranking list. The chances of Boston being swept by Baltimore is what ? ZERO ! I am so sure that Boston will win at least one of the next two games that if they get swept on their season opener by Baltimore I will cut my junk off and feed it to my dog. This is a pile of gold !

Although the Yankees are just outside the top 5 they are close enough for me. #7. Can you believe they lost their first game too the Astros ? Again, what do you think the chances are that the Astros will sweep the Yankees in the season opener ? ZERO ! This is our pile of diamonds.

For the MLB 5% of your bank should be one unit. Every time we win your unit gets bigger. 5% should be your (A) bet. If we lose the (A) bet your (B) bet should be 15% of your bank. We will always bet the RL if our team is the DOG and the ML if we are the fav.

In this case we can disregard that. Both bets are a lock as far as I can tell. So where do we put our money. If I had to guess I would say that both teams will win the (A) bet. I would like to see the Yankees win the (A) bet and Boston lose the (A) bet. That way we could bet on the Yankees tonight and Boston tomorrow.

The team I'm going to invest in will most likely be the one with the best value. You can't go wrong either way. Right now I'm leaning toward the Yankees. Either way. I'm going to put my junk on the table. I'm going to risk 25% of my bank on the (A) bet. That way if we lose that. The (B) bet will be the other 75% of my bank. If I bet on the Yankees and they win, great. I will hope Boston loses the (A) bet because if that happens I will put my whole bank 100% on the (B) bet for Boston. All the way to the bank brothers !

[Jimmy the Creep]

Here's my play.

BetOnline odds.

Faux bank.

$1000.00
-250.00 risk 25% of bank to win 223.21 -112
________
$ 750.00

(A) bet on BOSTON

[Jimmy the Creep]

Our first play of the season was a winner. The system works. we are 1-0 to start.
New balance. $1223.21.

The L.A. Dodgers were also a system play. If we bet that game we would have won that too. But this early in the season we're better off just getting our feet wet. Next week we'll jump in with both feet.

So for tracking purposes, the system is 2-0. And we are 1-0 to start.

We have no system plays today. But the game I feel is so close to a lock that I have to invest in it is the Yankees Astros game. The Yanks are just outside the top 5 on the power ranking list and they are playing the bottom team, the Astros. I just have to bet the Yankees will not be swept in the season opener by the Astros. If the Astros sweep the Yanks tonight the Yanks will never live it down. It just won't happen.

Because the Yanks Astros game is not an official system bet. I will not put it up as a system bet. Lets call it an unofficial system bet. I won't make an investment with the faux account, bet you know I'm going to make a bet on the game.

Here's my call.
Yanks win no problem.
Only 25% of my bank will be on it. Just because I hate to gamble.

[crackerjack]

Do you create your own power ratings?

Why was the winner a system bet but not the loser?

[Jimmy the Creep]

Do you create your own power ratings?

Why was the winner a system bet but not the loser?

Read #2. In order for a team to be a system bet they must be in the top 5 or bottom 5 on the power ranking list. You can see that list almost anywhere. Of course this list is some what of an opinion and each list is a little different they are close enough to each other that they work just fine for this system.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Maybe I can be a little more clear.

In order for a game to be a system bet.

1. If a team that is in the top 5 on a power ranking list. I'm going by (Foxsports.com.) and they( lose) their first game in a 3 game series to a team that is outside the top 10 on that power ranking list. Then you can be pretty darn sure that that top 5 team will win at least one of the next 2 games against the team they are playing that is outside the top 10.

Example, Boston, a top 5 team lost the first game to Baltimore. Baltimore was ranked #15 on the list. Baltimore is outside the top 10. Now we have a system play. We will bet that Boston will beat Baltimore in one of the next two games. And that's what happened. The farther apart the two teams are on the list the better chance you have of winning.

2. At the other end. The system is just the same except, a team in the bottom 5 must (win) the first game in a 3 game series to a team that is outside the bottom 10. We will bet that the team in the bottom 5 that just won the first game will lose one of the next two games. So our bet will be for the team they are playing against. And again. The farther apart the two teams are on the list the better.

3. If a team in the top 5 is playing against a team in the top 10, pass on that game. if a team in the bottom 5 is playing against a team in the bottom 10, pass on them. Also the starting pitcher must be playing in the second or third game.

This is a simple plan for a simple man. Me.

[Jimmy the Creep]

The Yankees were an unofficial bet according to the system, but they were so close it was pretty safe to bet on it. And of course the bet won. I can't include that game as a system win but my bank is fatter now. So far system 2-0 our plays are 1-0.

Today we have 6 games to keep our eye on.
Tigers
Dodgers
Red Sox
These 3 are top 5 teams playing against teams that are outside the top 10. If they (lose) tonight's game we have a system bet.

White Sox
Twins
Astros
These 3 teams are in the bottom 5 and are playing against teams that are outside the bottom 10. If they (win) tonight, then we will have a system play.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Today we have two official system bets and one unofficial bet.

Official
Red Sox
Dodgers

Unofficial
Rockies

We are going to bet that the Red Sox and The Dodgers are going to win at least one of their next two games and that the Rockies will lose one of it's next two games. The Rockies are just outside the bottom 5 but they are so close to being an official system bet that we have a very good chance of winning. We will be putting our money on the Diamondbacks.

These are (A) bets. So we will use 5% of our bank as 1 unit. And I will only play official bets. So we will be risking 10% of our bank today.

Dodgers are a RL bet. WE will risk $61 to win $36.97
Boston is a ml bet. We will risk $61 to win $32.45

Faux bank $1223.21-$122=$1101.21

Let's make some money. So far system bets are 2-0

[Jimmy the Creep]

The (A) bets didn't work out yesterday. No big deal we'll get em today.

Official
Boston
Dodgers

Unofficial
Diamondbacks

Today we will go to the (B) bets. What ever your (A) bet was make your (B) bet 3X's that.

Boston is a (B) bet on the ML. We will risk $183 to make $114.38. -160.
Dodgers are a (B) bet on the ML. We will risk $183 to make $122.00. -150

The Diamondbacks are unofficial so we shouldn't really bet on that.

Faux bank
$1101.21-$366.00=$735.21

System bets 2-0

[keel44]

The problem is this early on, nobody really knows how good/bad a team will be. Trust me, the White Sox are better than a bottom 5 team.

[Jimmy the Creep]

The problem is this early on, nobody really knows how good/bad a team will be. Trust me, the White Sox are better than a bottom 5 team.

I agree. The first week or so of this system has a little bit of the cross your fingers thing going on. If were going to lose a bet or two it would be in the month of April. I'll feel much better after we get a better feel about where the teams really are ranked. last year I only back tested this about two months. I don't have the time to go back any farther. If someone could find the time that would be great.

[Jimmy the Creep]

If you are a Boston fan, hang your head in shame.

[keel44]

Keep the bets safe and stay the course.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Not quite sure what the heck is up with Boston. They sure aren't acting like the champs they're supposed to be. Guess we have no choice but to put this one in the lost column. As the weeks go on the chances of this happening get less and less. Still, I'm not very happy about it.

I'm glad to see the Dodgers came through for us and if you did play the unofficial Diamondbacks they helped offset the Boston thing.

So far official bets 3-1 unofficial bets 2-0.

faux bank
$735.21+$183+$122.00=$1040.21

Looks like today we will be watching.
Cardinals
Boston
These two must lose the first game.
Twins
They must win the first game.

It's a good system. Just an early bump in the road. We will stay on course.

[keel44]

Are Texas and Cincy outside the top 10 of the power rankings?

[Jimmy the Creep]

Foxsports.com has the Reds at #11 and the Rangers at #13 that's what I'm going by.

Oops I screwed up. I didn't realize the power ranking list had been updated. I need to do this again.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Foxsports.com has a simulation thing. I think Whatifsports.com is doing it. It looks real good, so from now on that's where I'm getting the power ranking info.

Sorry for the confusion. It's the little things like this that needs a bit of work. So at the moment I have no idea what teams we need to be watching today. I'll get it all figured out.

[Jimmy the Creep]

After giving the updated list a quick look. It looks like we have a system play on the Yanks/Baltimore game tomorrow. If I missed something let me know. I'm late for my beer.

[Jimmy the Creep]

If you've been betting for a while, you know that the start of the MLB can be hard to get a handle on until things settle down. Right now I'm having a little trouble deciding who I trust the most when it comes to (ranking the teams). In fact, I'm starting to feel a little bit like a bitch. I can't seem to make up my mind. Last night I looked at many Power Ranking lists. And each one seem to have good, valid reasons why we should follow them. The problem is that every list was different and some were way different. Most had Boston near the top but some had them near the bottom. WTF.

So here's what I'm going to do. Foxsports.com has two lists. One seems to be made up by a human and the other (SIM) list is done by a computer. The list made up by a human has the Tigers on top. That's the one I'm going to go by. I used that list for about a month at the end of last season and I didn't lose one bet. If you guys have list you have been using and it seems like an accurate one please let me know. In the mean time for this system I'm using the Foxsports.com one. The human one. The list is updated every Monday.

So based on all that B.S. here is how today looks.

The Rays lost to KC. The Rays are a top 5 team and KC is outside the top 10. So we will bet that the Rays will win one of the next two games against KC.

We also have 3 games to watch today.
Washington/Marlins
Mets/Braves
Cubs/Pirates

Rays (A) bet. 1 unit. 5% of your bank. Bet the ML.

Faux bank $52.00 to win $48.15.

$1040.21-$52.00=$988.21

[keel44]

I think common sense goes a long way. I would say Texas and Cincy should be in the top 10. Baltimore is out and KC is out of the top ten.

I say the 3 games to you have to watch today are good.

[Jimmy the Creep]

I think common sense goes a long way. I would say Texas and Cincy should be in the top 10. Baltimore is out and KC is out of the top ten.

I say the 3 games to you have to watch today are good.

My common sense isn't worth shit. My first 3 or 4 years of betting sports was based on my common sense. I had to reload over and over again. I no longer use it in my betting.

Thanks for the input Keel. It helps.

[Jimmy the Creep]

The Rays came through on the (A) bet. Official system bets 4-1 unofficial bets 2-0.

Faux bank
$988.21+$52+$48.15=$1088.36

Last night the Mets, a bottom 5 team. Beat the Braves who are outside the bottom 10. That means we have a system bet. We will bet that the Braves will win one of the next two games.

(A) bet on the Braves ML 1 unit. That's 5% of your bank.



Faux bank
$1088.36-$54.00=$1034.36

$54 to win $38.03

This morning the Braves opened at -142. I see they are now +150. Now back to -145. Wish I grabbed them as the dog.

[Jimmy the Creep]

The Braves hung on to beat the Mets. Official system bets are now 5-1 unofficial are 2-0.

Faux bank
$1034.36+$54.00+$38.03=$1126.39

Tomorrow 4/10 we have an unofficial game to watch. White Sox/Cleveland. The White Sox must win in order for this to be a play.

On the 11th we will have a bunch of games to watch. On the 12th it should be raining money.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Amazing. The White Sox had to win and they did. That means we have an unofficial bet on them today. Even though they are just outside the bottom 5 and are not quite an official bet I feel very confident that we are about to make some cash.

We are going to bet that the White Sox will lose one of the next two games against Cleveland. So The (A) bet is for Cleveland to win. For some reason Cleveland is the underdog. So we will bet 1 unit on the RL. That's 5% of your bank. If they become the favorite by game time bet the ML.

Faux bank
$1126.39
5% $56.00 to win $38.13
$1126.39-$56.00=$1070.39

Today we start a new 3 game series and we have several games to watch. We will be printing cash tomorrow.

Top five teams that must lose the first game are.
Rays
Washington
Cardinals
Dodgers
Tigers
Bottom 5 teams that must win the first game are.
Twins
Mets
Rockies
Astros

Out of this group we should have 3 or 4 games to bet on tomorrow. I feel like a kid in a candy shop.

P.S. I wasn't going to bet on unofficial games, but what the heck.

[riddick0802]

Do it big jimmy! The system has been working so far

[Jimmy the Creep]

Looks like an interesting day today. I'm not sure if betting on an unofficial game is a good idea but we'll see. The Cleveland Indians couldn't get it done on the (A) bet so We will now go to the (B) bet.

What ever you bet on the Indians. Bet 3X's that. The faux bank bet was $56.00 so we will bet $168.00 to win $122.63 ML -137.

Now for the games that we can bet on. Looks like we have 4 (A) bets.
Washington (A) bet RL
KC (A) bet ML -147
Cardinals (A) bet ML -122
Tigers (A) bet ML -135

Here's what I'm going to do. Because I'm betting on the somewhat conservative side, I am only going to place a bet on one or two of these games. As much as I would like to put something on all 4 games. I just know that if I put that much of my bank roll on the line something bad will happen.

So I'm going to place a bet on the two teams that are farthest apart on the (Power Ranking) list. And those two teams are.
Tigers (A) bet 1 unit $45.00 to win $33.33.
Cards (A) bet 1 unit $45.00 to win 20.27.

Faux bank
$1070.39-$168.00=$902.39-$90.00=$812.39

Of course you do what you want and good luck.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Do you see it yet. A simple plan for a simple man. 2 official bets and 1 unofficial bet came through for us yesterday.

Faux bank roll was $812.39 now is $1246.62

Official system bets are 7-1 unofficial bets are 3-0. Boston screwed us in the first week. Shouldn't have bet on them. Next year, any bets in the first week should be passed on.

Today we have two plays to make. We will bet them like they were (A) bets even though they are in the (B) bet spot. And that's because we didn't bet on them yesterday. We will bet 1 unit. That's 5% of our bank.

Washington (A) bet ML -120 $62.00 to win $51.67
KC (A) bet ML -130 $62.00 to win $47.69

Faux bank $1246.62-$124.00=$1122.62

P.S. Yesterday Thomas Cole, my dad passed away at 5:04 pm. We were going to go for a motorcycle ride tomorrow. He seemed healthy yesterday morning. He was only 70 years old. Don't sweat the small stuff. Hug the people you love.

[blackeyeshamus]

Sorry for your loss, JTC.
Best of luck today.
...and RIP Mr. Cole, may the road rise to meet you.

[Jimmy the Creep]

Thank you.

[Jimmy the Creep]

I wasn't able to be on top of things yesterday. Hope I didn't miss out on too much. Had some things that needed to be done.

Well looks like we got screwed by Washington and KC. I think the reason for that was simply because it's April and we are seeing big swings in the (Power Ranking ) list. As we get farther into the season things will stabilize and the chances of losing will be much less.

Official bets are now 7-3 unofficial are 3-0.

Faux bank $1122.62

Looks like the Rays lost the first game against Baltimore. The Rays are in the #1 spot on the list this week and Baltimore is #21. So that means we have an (A) bet on the Rays. 1 unit 5% of your bank.

Rays (A) bet ML -105 $56.00 to win $53.33

We also have 3 games to watch tonight.
Tigers/Indians
KC/Astros
Dodgers/Giants

Faux bank $1066.62

GL