2014 MLB thread with friends

**whtsox13** · 05-15-14, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

You're probably right re: average bet size. It would be interesting to see what that # actually is. I almost never go above 4U, though I have had an occasional "big" play. Of course for me, a 10U play is only $200, where to someone tailing me at $100 per unit would be investing a grand in that play. Again, those plays can be counted on two hands during the last two years, but I have made a few of them. So in actuality, my amount invested is probably closer to $200,000 total in the last two years than $100,000.

When I see someone wagering 5-10u that normally wagers one or two units, I say to myself, I say "Self, this person really likes this play and sees a good angle, let's look at it and see what we think." I'm not automatically matching unit size, if it seems a strong play I'll decide how many units to wager.
Keep up the good work, sir.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by whtsox13

When I see someone wagering 5-10u that normally wagers one or two units, I say to myself, I say "Self, this person really likes this play and sees a good angle, let's look at it and see what we think." I'm not automatically matching unit size, if it seems a strong play I'll decide how many units to wager.
Keep up the good work, sir.

Agree that it's all relative to your comfort level. For me, putting $200 on a single game is a lot -- especially as a high volume, recreational bettor. I suppose that if you are used to $100 per unit, having a grand on a strong play may not seem that absurd.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by mikmik

Coin thanks for all the insight.

That's what we're all here for. I just wish 2DaBank, ExHoosier, italianbandit, tat, t-bone, etc. posted more around here these days -- I'm an amateur compared to their ability to break down a game or spot a great bet. This thread would really take off if/when they start showing up more often.

**Lincoln Scofield** · 05-15-14, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

2DaBank

That guy used to always be around. Did he get banned or something?

**Hotnicks** · 05-15-14, 10:34 AM

Great stuff nocoin. I always check in here before making my plays. Very helpful.

I had a question regarding the cubbies. If wacha is a -200+ fav, why is the TT difference only 1/2 a run. Waino was the same high priced fav but had a full run difference in TT's. Cubs RL has to be the play right?

**PapaDBets** · 05-15-14, 10:36 AM

Coin any thoughts on the Pads game 1? I know you said you stay away from double headers but I think a play on the Pads in game 1 has some value...

**CappinTerp** · 05-15-14, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by EVfollower

Agree with mikmik on top 3 around here. You, hardcoar (tennis betting forum), bigpage25 all do really well. Cappinterp is doing really well too but he is on hot streak so we'll see. You guys all show how varying units wagered per bet is better than just flat betting.

I showed people many angles over the years, Am sure No COIN will agree that power weighting games is a must.! Look at this way: At 11/10 odds your break even is 52.5 % and in the long run it,s almost impossible to hit 58 % of your bets.! So power weighting does make sense........... As for units bet ( for me ) I find it very hard to calibrate units on scale of 1-10. What I do is to spread my bets from 1-6 units............this has helped me a lot........but for that 5-6 unit bet one must always have an angle..........hope this helps....good luck to all.!!

**echun32** · 05-15-14, 11:16 AM

Hey No Coin, How do you feel about todays Clevland vs Toranto game? Ive got 2 separate cappers service plays going opposite sides lol

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 12:06 PM

This is all I've got for the afternoon:

PIT TT over 3.5 (1.2U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by echun32

Hey No Coin, How do you feel about todays Clevland vs Toranto game? Ive got 2 separate cappers service plays going opposite sides lol

Weird game and weird line. Figured Cleveland would be -120, but Salazar and his control problems can't be trusted.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 12:14 PM

If you're feeling lucky, Cubs RL might be worth a roll of the dice (and possibly TT over 3 if you can get +125 or better). I wanted -120 on the RL but couldn't find it.

**echun32** · 05-15-14, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

If you're feeling lucky, Cubs RL might be worth a roll of the dice (and possibly TT over 3 if you can get +125 or better). I wanted -120 on the RL but couldn't find it.

I found cubs rl -120 n my book, ho may units?

**Pauulzcappin** · 05-15-14, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

This is all I've got for the afternoon:

PIT TT over 3.5 (1.2U to win 1)

took the full game over.

**Cappinpicks** · 05-15-14, 01:27 PM

Crap wacha just locked in the 4-0 home team parlay lock

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

took the full game over.

Pirates have wasted a ton of chances.

**Pauulzcappin** · 05-15-14, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Pirates have wasted a ton of chances.

brewers did as well. you still have a fair chance of cashing your bet, i don't

**Pauulzcappin** · 05-15-14, 02:32 PM

Fukking Marc Reynolds man.

jeez

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

This is all I've got for the afternoon:

PIT TT over 3.5 (1.2U to win 1)

Variance can be a wicked bitch.

Anyone see the Pirates' 8th inning? You'll know what I'm talking about.

**Pauulzcappin** · 05-15-14, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Variance can be a wicked bitch.

Anyone see the Pirates' 8th inning? You'll know what I'm talking about.

I just watched the 9th. I swear these stiffs ground into double play more often than not when I'm betting on an over.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 02:57 PM

Wow.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

I just watched the 9th. I swear these stiffs ground into double play more often than not when I'm betting on an over.

Their offense is nothing short of all-out dysfunctional.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Fukking Marc Reynolds man.

jeez

That ball almost killed him.

Lookie what I got, ma. 5-4-3 DP.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 03:08 PM

Cubs hitters, top to bottom, are absolutely clueless at the plate.

They might as well go up there blindfolded. Plus, they all just swing for the fences. No discipline whatsoever.

**Lincoln Scofield** · 05-15-14, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

This is all I've got for the afternoon:

PIT TT over 3.5 (1.2U to win 1)

Positive thinking coin. Gonna get a GBDP right here, run is gonna score, gonna get the next out and go into extras to scratch one across.

**Pauulzcappin** · 05-15-14, 03:14 PM

At least the Pirates lost. Losers.

**EXhoosier10** · 05-15-14, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Cubs hitters, top to bottom, are absolutely clueless at the plate.

They might as well go up there blindfolded. Plus, they all just swing for the fences. No discipline whatsoever.

Come on, man. Be kind to our futility. From what I've heard, we are due to bounce back a bit. Should be a 70-75 win team. I think I heard we're 2-10 in one run games so far.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Come on, man. Be kind to our futility. From what I've heard, we are due to bounce back a bit. Should be a 70-75 win team. I think I heard we're 2-10 in one run games so far.

Today has been a trainwreck at the plate. No reason for the Cubs to be down right now.

Where you been man?

**EXhoosier10** · 05-15-14, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

That's what we're all here for. I just wish 2DaBank, ExHoosier, italianbandit, tat, t-bone, etc. posted more around here these days -- I'm an amateur compared to their ability to break down a game or spot a great bet. This thread would really take off if/when they start showing up more often.

Aww you're making me blush. I heard from IB via pm early in the season saying home life with his kid is a bit busy. My phone and computer broke while I was traveling, so I haven't had a chance to follow anything this season. My replacement harddrive should be ready to go in a few days and I'll get things back up and running in about a week from there. Anyway, if anybody gets the chance to travel, visit the South Island of New Zealand. Far and away the most beautiful place I've ever seen.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 03:47 PM

SD -110 (1.1U to win 1)
CLE -105 (1.05U to win 1)
KC -132 (1.32U to win 1)
KC TT over 3.5 (1.1U to win 1)

**Pauulzcappin** · 05-15-14, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

SD -110 (1.1U to win 1)
CLE -105 (1.05U to win 1)

Coiner what do you see in the Indians?

To me this game is a toss-up between two stiffs. Only thing they have going is Toronto's pen is used up.

**echun32** · 05-15-14, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

SD -110 (1.1U to win 1)
CLE -105 (1.05U to win 1)
KC -132 (1.32U to win 1)
KC TT over 3.5 (1.1U to win 1)

who do you have pitching for SD?

**EVfollower** · 05-15-14, 04:29 PM

So lost in tonight's card, to me it looks awful, nothing looks good. San Diego, worst run support in the league a favorite no thanks. Kansas city is all I see but even that in my opinion is heavily juiced. Waiting for one of you +EV cappers to make bigger than a 1 unit play to tail haha.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Pauulzcappin

Coiner what do you see in the Indians?

To me this game is a toss-up between two stiffs. Only thing they have going is Toronto's pen is used up.

Happ is a lefty and that normally gives Cleveland problems, but he's a bum. Salazar still has unlimited potential -- I'm just hoping he harnesses it tonight.

**No coincidences** · 05-15-14, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by echun32

who do you have pitching for SD?

Ross.

**Pauulzcappin** · 05-15-14, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Happ is a lefty and that normally gives Cleveland problems, but he's a bum. Salazar still has unlimited potential -- I'm just hoping he harnesses it tonight.

Thanks for the input, a bit worried that whoever puts up 10+ runs and are not named Rockies usually come out a bit flat. Happ shouldn't go longer than 5 and Toronto's pen sucks.

I like Kansas City a bunch but I'm a bit wary of laying -135. Ventura is a stud though.