Jeff's Bets

[Jefferey13]

Just wanted a place to track my plays. I am starting a simple system and it focuses on dogs. Please don't think that I am saying there is only money in dogs, it is just that my initial system focuses on them. It also has a way to result in some O/U picks, and once in a while it will produce a fav.

There will be tweaking to the system, and I just tweaked it for tomorrow's game so I'll start fresh. All of my bets are very small and essentially paper betting, but I want some skin in the game for fun while I track it. Oh also, because my bets are small, I just use Bovada so I am sometimes missing the better lines, but the interface makes it worth it for now.

PS- Please don't flame any of my picks after they lose, but feel free to flame them before the start of the game.

8/4

MIA +110 ML
WAS +102 ML
TEX +113 ML
SEA/BAL Under -120

[TheMLBKing]

love em all except washington, BOL

[Riceboi]

love em all except washington, BOL

don't like any of them, BOL

[ItsMeMrMattE]

if your gonna focus on dogs Bovada is the way to go imo. GL tomorrow. you got at least one person rootin for that TEX win tomorrow here.

[Jefferey13]

Eovaldi goes 7 and allows 1 run yet marlins give them nothing.

Nats just gave up a 3 run lead. Not going awesome right now.

[Jefferey13]

2-2 today. Stupid nationals blowing the lead. Oh well, it's just one game on one day. Hopefully I get some come from behind wins in the future.

+ 0.13 units.

[Jefferey13]

So far for tomorrow I have

ATL +115
ATL/WAS U -125

Hopefully when more lines come out on Bovada or with some line movement I can add more. The ATL pick is already a bit of a stretch for it to fit the model.

[Jefferey13]

Add Texas Even

[Jefferey13]

3-0 Today, good day.

ATL ML
ATL/WAS U
TEXAS ML

+3.15U

YTD 5-2 + 3.28 U

[Jefferey13]

Overnight action for 8/6

MIL +155
ARI +110
ATL +105
NYY/CWS U -130 (missed -125 by like 2 seconds)

Milwaukee a bit scary because they suck but the +155 makes it okay.

The ATL play here scares me a tiny bit because it barely fits the model. If Gio hadn't allowed 10 runs in his last start I wouldn't be on this play. But I can't start picking and choosing plays and discount the model because then it defeats the purpose of even having one.

Hopefully another good day tomorrow. Maybe some more will come with line moves tomorrow.

[Jefferey13]

Another solid day. All four were winners. Love 4-0 days.

+4.7 U

YTD 9-2 +7.98U

EDIT- I forgot to account for the over under first time I posted

[Aye J Mac]

well done bro

[Jefferey13]

well done bro

Thanks, I'll have tomorrows up here in a second.

[Jefferey13]

Just looks like two right now on the overnight line for 6/9

SD +105 ML
HOU +155 ML

I think the SD pick is kinda crazy, but the model says to pick it so I will.

I like the houston game here. I think there is some serious value in it and the risk outweighs the reward.

BOL, I should have more tomorrow.

[pintsonice]

Good shitt homie, I love to see when people do well like you are, especially how you play almost all dogs

[Jefferey13]

thanks pints-

Additional plays for today

MIN +132
TB/ARI U 8 -115

Let's get em again today!

[Jefferey13]

Terrible day today. First losing day. Went 0-4. The Padres were tied 3-3 then lost, the twins were up 1-0 and 2-1 then lost, and the Astros were up 5-2 and had a lead in the 9th and lost. Rough. Hopefully tomorrow is better.

YTD 9-6 +3.83U

[Jefferey13]

Rough day yesterday, hopefully better today.

8/8
LAD -109
KC +107
MIL +157

[Jefferey13]

Little bit better day today. 2-3 +1.07U. I wasn't even close on the MIL game.

YTD - 11-7 + 4.9 units.

I'm excited for tomorrows picks.

[Jefferey13]

Plays for 8/9

PHI +145
SD +143
KC +103
MIL +100

Some sketchy plays in popped out of the system. However my favorite game here is the KC game. The royals are hot right now and you can take them at +$$$. Santana has been pretty stellar for KC and has been locked down for his last 5 starts. What do you guys think?

[Jefferey13]

Well I killed it today. I won .03 units haha. 2-2. But in all seriousness a win is a win, even if it is basically nothing. Until tomorrows game!

YTD 13-9 +4.93U

[Jefferey13]

Oh shoot, I posted I won the MIL game and it's not even over. If they lose their 7 run lead I'll switch my post.

[Jefferey13]

Didn't post plays for 8/10 bc it was my daughters 2nd birthday and we were busy all day.

Here are the picks for 8/11 so far

Oak -105
Bal -105

That's it. This is the first time so far with the model that it didn't give a + odds pick. It's because almost all of the dogs are going up against the aces.

I know no one ever posts here, but I guess I'll keep going because the view count does keep going up and it's good for me to keep track publicly for accountability.

[jessetk313]

I like Baltimore too even though they screwed me today. BOL!

[Jefferey13]

2 come from behind wins today. Nice to have a day like that.

Went 2-0 Today, +2.0 U

YTD - 15-9 +6.93 U

[Jefferey13]

8/12 plays

CWS +110
MIA +165

Tough to get picks lately, and the two I did get are risky. I think the sale line will end up closer to +120, but bovada has it at 110 now, so I'm taking it in case the line happens to go the other way. The MIA line has good odds, but a win will be tough. At least with +odds I just need one win tomorrow.

[Jefferey13]

Let's add in DET/CWS U 7 +100.

I'm guessing 3-1 CWS.

[Jefferey13]

Ehh stupid royals kept knocking in runs late to make me lose my O/U. I knew I should have taken the phillies.

1-2, -0.9 U

YTD 16-11 +6.03U

[Jefferey13]

8/13

laa +133
tor +120

[Jefferey13]

throw in LAD/NYM UNDER -115

[KidSeoul]

Ehh stupid royals kept knocking in runs late to make me lose my O/U. I knew I should have taken the phillies.

1-2, -0.9 U

YTD 16-11 +6.03U

You mean stupid white sox, right?

[KidSeoul]

throw in LAD/NYM UNDER -115

And i'm all over this tonight as well!

[Jefferey13]

You mean stupid white sox, right?

Nice catch. thanks.

And ya I'm hoping for something like a 2-0 win from the dodgers tonight. Harvey is my fantasy pitcher. Can't have him beat up too bad.

[Jefferey13]

Tonight frustrated me a bit. Angels have a 2-0 and a 3-1 lead and lose. Toronto has the lead and loses it in the 11th. And the under was good except for a defensive indifference so I pushed.

Good news is I am very close on all these games and they are +odds. As long as I stay 50/50 I'll be positive in units.

0-2 -2U today.

YTD 16-13 +4.03U

[3runhomer]

Hang in there...