Samrock's 2013 TDK 2.0 RL Chase

[samrock67]

Upon recommendation from a number of members in TDK's thread and permission from TheDarkKnigh01(a thousand thanks), I will be using this thread to keep track of TheDarkKnight01's Chase system's performance on the RL and posting plays for those who are interested.

For those of you who bet "to win" 1 unit, this will save you money on your chases. Significant money.
For those of you who bet a certain amount per game and ignore unit size, this could turn out to be very profitable.

USE THIS SYSTEM AT YOUR OWN RISK. This system has not been backtested, nor will it be because I don't have access to the systems that TDK uses and I don't plan to ask him. This thread is solely for the purpose of monitoring how the system does on the RL. If you choose to use these bets instead of or in addition to TDK's plays, please do so at your own risk. I cannot yet vouch for the efficacy of this system. We will see how things pan out in 2013.

TDK's thread can be found here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-betting/2226842-multiple-mlb-chase-systems-250-units-2012-a.html

The idea here is simple- all of TDK's bets are ML or RL +1.5 bets. When the team you are betting on wins, under TDK's system, the series is over. With this system, the series is only over if the team covers the -1.5 RL. If they do not, the chase proceeds until they do. Since this is pretty much a repeat of TDK's system, each series will be a 4-game chase. I will only be tracking TDK's 4-game chases and NOT his 3-game chases

Lines will be based on the book I use, which is 5Dimes.

I will try to post plays as early as possible, but please bear in mind that any new series will depend on TDK posting in his chase thread, which thankfully, he is very good about.

Again, thanks to TDK for permission to go ahead with this.

Betting Strategy
I have found that instead of chasing to win 1 unit per series, using a 1-2-4-8 betting strategy has proved to be the most profitable when playing on the RL. The bets are as follows
Game 1: Risk 1u
Game 2: Risk 2u
Game 3: Risk 4u
Game 4: Risk 8u

So, if your unit size was $10, your individual bets would be $10-$20-$40-$80

Based on this, the most you stand to lose in a series is 15 units. If you want to play this smaller, you can go .5-1-2-4, and each loss will only hit for a loss of 7.5 units. The idea is to minimize loss and maximize profit.

This is what a sample card will look like:

5/5/13

#91: Giants -1.5 1u
#92: Phillies -1.5 1u
#93: Brewers -1.5 1u
#94: Yankees -1.5 1u

I may or may not list the odds for each game, haven't decided yet.

One thing you need to bear in mind is that the main difference in this system is that we will basically be taking the team that begins a series with TDK and tailing them on the -1.5 RL for their next 4 games. This is different from TDK's systems, which I'm sure have a mix of home/road chases as well as fades. In his system, the team may change from bet to bet. In this system it WILL NOT.

Here are the current numbers for this system:

TDK System Record: 82-2, +1.22 units(I'm not sure of this, will have to double check with TDK)
TDK RL Record: 81-4 +153.87 units

I really hope this system continues to see profit in the manner that it has, but I can't be certain. I do think that it will be profitable by season's end.

Best of luck to all those who decide to tail! Will start with tomorrow's Game 1 bets.

P.S. I am unable to post Saturday games because I work weekends, so if someone would be kind enough to post on Saturdays, it would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

[acehole]

this will be an interesting follow... thanks samrock for the new thread

[TheDarkKnight01]

Good luck here buddy

[J.M. Disciple]

Don't get too caught up in tracking other systems on RL. I know you have your test coming up soon. But do appreciate your hard work. I just know other thread you worried you didn't have enough time...

Best of luck

[cooler54]

arent a chunk of dark knights winnings from this year from over/under chasing in the beginning of the year...so that wouldnt count with the rl?

[samrock67]

Don't get too caught up in tracking other systems on RL. I know you have your test coming up soon. But do appreciate your hard work. I just know other thread you worried you didn't have enough time...

Best of luck

appreciate the concern...I was thinking of letting it die tbh because it's barely profitable at this point. Haven't decided yet. Just kinda turned off by Stiflers system at this point because it isn't based on fixed rules and the teams change from year to year. Doesn't seem to be the case here but who knows. I'm simplifying my posts to make it less work for me but since I'm betting on this anyway I might as well keep track here...I've dropped Stifler for the interim...gonna try riding the TDK wave for a while.

[samrock67]

arent a chunk of dark knights winnings from this year from over/under chasing in the beginning of the year...so that wouldnt count with the rl?

Pretty sure the stats I posted above dont take the O/U chase into account.

[cooler54]

Pretty sure the stats I posted above dont take the O/U chase into account.

yeah we're good...he kept that seperate...either way, im on board starting with giants game 1 tonight!! lets do this!!

[808bases]

Hey Samrock you have an excel spreadsheet you tracking this on? I'm trying to put one together but would appreciate it if you got a blank one

[samrock67]

Hey Samrock you have an excel spreadsheet you tracking this on? I'm trying to put one together but would appreciate it if you got a blank one

Yea ill put mine on google docs and pm you the info tomorrow

[808bases]

Cool thanks brother

[cooler54]

u think betting to win 1% of your bankroll would be efficient enough for this rl chase since we will be betting less units then the dark knights regular chases?

[samrock67]

5/6/13

TDK Record: 86-2, +7.22u
TDK RL Record: 85-4, +162.67u
Thread Record: 0-0, +0u

Today's Card(NOT FINAL):
#90: SF -1.5 4u
#91: SF -1.5 2u
#92: Phi -1.5 2u

**As you can see above, I am keeping a separate tally of this thread's record as of today. Games #90-94 will not be counted as part of this tally, so bet on them at your own risk(i.e. entering in the middle of a series). You also see that I have made note that today's card is not final. I will edit that out when TDK posts because there potentially are series that are starting today.

[samrock67]

u think betting to win 1% of your bankroll would be efficient enough for this rl chase since we will be betting less units then the dark knights regular chases?

This method will definitely make your chases cheaper, but I'm not sure exactly how many units you would be up if you used this betting strategy. If I had to estimate, based on an average of +150 odds over 4 games(not sure how accurate this is), you would lose around 7 units per loss using this method. Thus, if you were betting to win 1% of your roll each time, you would probably be up ~70 units at this point. This is pure estimation, I'm not going to actually do the math(sorry).

[groovybrandone]

hey sam, is the betting strat risk 1/2/4/8 and not bet to win 1/2/4/8?

[samrock67]

hey sam, is the betting strat risk 1/2/4/8 and not bet to win 1/2/4/8?

Correct, each bet is "Risk" and not "To Win"

Clarified in the OP, thanks for pointing it out.

[groovybrandone]

tyty, ive been semi following this for a bit since im on TDK's. seems really interesting

[samrock67]

#95, 96 added

Please note that these plays are different from TDK's plays(as is evident by #92, 94) so this is not simply a system where we play TDK's system on the RL. We are taking his Game 1 plays and tailing that team on the -1.5 RL for 4 games.

Today's Card(FINAL):
#90: SF -1.5 4u
#91: SF -1.5 2u
#92: Phi -1.5 2u
#95: SD -1.5 1u
#96: SF -1.5 1u

[808bases]

A little confused here, I understand that you will be playing different games then TDK due to the run line but your numbered games are going to be different also?

[samrock67]

A little confused here, I understand that you will be playing different games then TDK due to the run line but your numbered games are going to be different also?

When it's Game 1, the bets will be identical. Any game after that I cannot promise that it will be the same...for example, #92 the first game was on the Phillies because it's a Miami fade, but TDK doesn't indicate that in his posts. Thus, I'm just going to keep things simple and tail the team in Game 1 for 4 games and that's what my stats are based on.

[Wallco99]

Hey Sam, great thread, but the Yankees and Brewers aren't even playing today. You have them listed as plays. And also, why are we playing the DOG teams at -1 1/2? They are already +money bets as they are. A $100 loss on them will only cost $100 anyway.

[samrock67]

Hey Sam, great thread, but the Yankees and Brewers aren't even playing today. You have them listed as plays. And also, why are we playing the DOG teams at -1 1/2? They are already +money bets as they are. A $100 loss on them will only cost $100 anyway.

As I saw this I changed the NYY and Mil bets.

As for why we plays dogs at -1.5, it just made my backtesting easier...if I go back and look at all of the dog games I would have to change a lot of numbers. If a dog is going to win, whether home or away, there is a 60% chance that they are going to win by 2(see this article: http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/ba..._run_lines.htm)

If people want to be safer and take a dog SU that is their option, but my numbers are going to reflect playing dogs on the -1.5 line- and to be honest, that is where a lot of your big wins come from because the juice is that much better. At some point over the season, after enough data has been collected, I will take a look at the losses to see whether on the D bet, applying a filter of taking a dog on the ML(or even on the +1.5 RL) would change things. For now I'm just trying to keep it as simple as possible.

[Wallco99]

As I saw this I changed the NYY and Mil bets.

As for why we plays dogs at -1.5, it just made my backtesting easier...if I go back and look at all of the dog games I would have to change a lot of numbers. If a dog is going to win, whether home or away, there is a 60% chance that they are going to win by 2(see this article: http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/ba..._run_lines.htm)

If people want to be safer and take a dog SU that is their option, but my numbers are going to reflect playing dogs on the -1.5 line- and to be honest, that is where a lot of your big wins come from because the juice is that much better. At some point over the season, after enough data has been collected, I will take a look at the losses to see whether on the D bet, applying a filter of taking a dog on the ML(or even on the +1.5 RL) would change things. For now I'm just trying to keep it as simple as possible.

What site did you use to backtest win amounts of -1 1/2 run lines. Or did you just use a standard number for all your wins. The only site I know of that shows run line odds for previous months is Scoresandodds.com

[samrock67]

What site did you use to backtest win amounts of -1 1/2 run lines. Or did you just use a standard number for all your wins. The only site I know of that shows run line odds for previous months is Scoresandodds.com

http://www.oddsportal.com/

[chound]

appreciate the concern...I was thinking of letting it die tbh because it's barely profitable at this point. Haven't decided yet. Just kinda turned off by Stiflers system at this point because it isn't based on fixed rules and the teams change from year to year. Doesn't seem to be the case here but who knows. I'm simplifying my posts to make it less work for me but since I'm betting on this anyway I might as well keep track here...I've dropped Stifler for the interim...gonna try riding the TDK wave for a while.

Actually Stiflers rules are fixed for his system, his teams change from year to year so he can try and capitalize on those with the better trends. I was gonna post something similiar to what your doing from the beginning of this year because I have several systems that I did backtest the previous 3 years with fixed rules that have shown a profit using the ML on dogs and RL on favs with but not with the traditional martingale. My problem is my time to post plays and check in daily is limited

[cooler54]

Ah okay gotcha...so just to clarify, anytime a team we are chasing to win is the underdog, take the -1.5 alternative runline and NOT the +moneyline?

Also what i meant before was if my bankroll is 2500 and my betting sequence for this chase is 25-50-100-200...that would be sufficient and not overdoing it?

[samrock67]

Ah okay gotcha...so just to clarify, anytime a team we are chasing to win is the underdog, take the -1.5 alternative runline and NOT the +moneyline?

Also what i meant before was if my bankroll is 2500 and my betting sequence for this chase is 25-50-100-200...that would be sufficient and not overdoing it?

Yes- if the team we are betting on is an underdog for the given game, we are still taking them on the -1.5 RL, but I will make note of the option to take the ML. As I said, the only time I would consider taking the ML for a dog is on Game 4. Perhaps sometime today I will look at the 13 instances of a Game 4 that have occurred so far and see in the case of an underdog, how much of an impact taking the ML would have had.

If you are uncomfortable with 25-50-100-200, you could always start with a 1/2 unit and go 12.5-25-50-100 for a while. Really up to you.

[cooler54]

and also, we still bet philadephia today for 2 units even though they are playing sf who we are also betting for 7 units correct?

[samrock67]

and also, we still bet philadephia today for 2 units even though they are playing sf who we are also betting for 7 units correct?

Yes, that is correct.

[chound]

Ah okay gotcha...so just to clarify, anytime a team we are chasing to win is the underdog, take the -1.5 alternative runline and NOT the +moneyline?

Also what i meant before was if my bankroll is 2500 and my betting sequence for this chase is 25-50-100-200...that would be sufficient and not overdoing it?

I would start with .75 % of your BR as your starting bets because if you have 4-5 chases going on at once and they are on the 3rd or 4th game you could be tight on new chases....just my $.02

[cooler54]

yeah i agree tx guys...plus want to set aside some money in the roll for hockey playoffs

[Wallco99]

http://www.oddsportal.com/

How do you get to the R/L data on this site?

[samrock67]

How do you get to the R/L data on this site?

You can do a search for a team, and their archived game-by-game results. Once you click on a game, if you go to the "AH" or Asian Handicap tab, you can see RL data

[groovybrandone]

no play on braves or dodgers for TDK which i think the last pending plays for the day

[samrock67]

no play on braves or dodgers for TDK which i think the last pending plays for the day

Yup, final card can be found in post #18. I really like SF tonight(as does much of the public) even with Lee on the mound. I mean...who loses 14-2 to the Marlins???? Philly bats have been horrific and they basically just got pounded by Cleveland and Miami. Lee has a sick history against SF(4-0, .63) but Bumgarner has been pretty lights out this year.

BOL to everyone following, hope this brings in some serious profits for the rest of the year!